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| ‘Boris bounce’ lifts Tories at expense of Brexit party, poll shows | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The Conservatives are experiencing a “Boris bounce” in the polls since his appointment as prime minister. | The Conservatives are experiencing a “Boris bounce” in the polls since his appointment as prime minister. |
| In Boris Johnson’s first week in Downing Street, the Tories led with 30% of the vote. | In Boris Johnson’s first week in Downing Street, the Tories led with 30% of the vote. |
| New polling by Opinium for The Observer shows the Tories enjoying a two-point lead over Labour – a gain of seven points – in the past fortnight. | New polling by Opinium for The Observer shows the Tories enjoying a two-point lead over Labour – a gain of seven points – in the past fortnight. |
| The polling, carried out after Boris Johnson’s leadership victory, shows the Conservatives benefitting from a surge in support away from The Brexit party. | The polling, carried out after Boris Johnson’s leadership victory, shows the Conservatives benefitting from a surge in support away from The Brexit party. |
| Despite being pushed into second place, Labour are also up three points to 28% at the expense of the Green Party. | Despite being pushed into second place, Labour are also up three points to 28% at the expense of the Green Party. |
| While support for Labour has grown, their leader Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a weaker leader than Boris Johnson: 38% of those polled believed Johnson had stronger leadership credentials compared to 17 % for Corbyn – a 21 point lead. | While support for Labour has grown, their leader Jeremy Corbyn is seen as a weaker leader than Boris Johnson: 38% of those polled believed Johnson had stronger leadership credentials compared to 17 % for Corbyn – a 21 point lead. |
| Not since the 2017 election, when Theresa May led the party, has a Tory leader enjoyed such a comfortable margin. | Not since the 2017 election, when Theresa May led the party, has a Tory leader enjoyed such a comfortable margin. |
| The only advantage that Corbyn holds is that he is perceived to be “more in touch” with ordinary people than Johnson. | The only advantage that Corbyn holds is that he is perceived to be “more in touch” with ordinary people than Johnson. |
| Adam Drummond, senior research manager at Opinium, said the first poll of Johnson’s premiership showed that the Tories plan to unite the Leave vote against divided opposition was working. | Adam Drummond, senior research manager at Opinium, said the first poll of Johnson’s premiership showed that the Tories plan to unite the Leave vote against divided opposition was working. |
| Among Leave voters, he said support for the Tories was up 12 points, at the expense of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. “In 2017 the Tory strategy failed in part because of a poor campaign by Theresa May but also because non-Tories united behind Labour to prevent a Tory landslide. | Among Leave voters, he said support for the Tories was up 12 points, at the expense of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. “In 2017 the Tory strategy failed in part because of a poor campaign by Theresa May but also because non-Tories united behind Labour to prevent a Tory landslide. |
| “This time both party leaders are much more well known than their equivalents were in 2017, so the chances of a late surge are more remote. Labour also have to contend with the fact, unlike 2017, opposing Brexit has revived the Liberal Democrats, meaning their efforts to appeal to both Leavers and Remainers will become more complicated,” he said. | “This time both party leaders are much more well known than their equivalents were in 2017, so the chances of a late surge are more remote. Labour also have to contend with the fact, unlike 2017, opposing Brexit has revived the Liberal Democrats, meaning their efforts to appeal to both Leavers and Remainers will become more complicated,” he said. |
| All bets are off if Boris Johnson calls an early election | All bets are off if Boris Johnson calls an early election |
| The latest poll shows that 25% of the public say they are more likely to vote for the Conservative party now Johnson leads it, with 19% saying they are less likely to. | The latest poll shows that 25% of the public say they are more likely to vote for the Conservative party now Johnson leads it, with 19% saying they are less likely to. |
| Even more positively for the Conservatives, almost half of Brexit Party voters (47%) say they would now be more likely to support the Tories. | Even more positively for the Conservatives, almost half of Brexit Party voters (47%) say they would now be more likely to support the Tories. |
| However Johnson is seen as a divisive figure, with half (50%) believing he will divide the country. A smaller number (31%) think he will unite it | However Johnson is seen as a divisive figure, with half (50%) believing he will divide the country. A smaller number (31%) think he will unite it |
| According to Opinium’s polling, some 45% of the public think the UK should go ahead with Brexit irrespective of whether he can agree a better deal. But a similar proportion (41%) think Brexit should be delayed or cancelled altogether. | According to Opinium’s polling, some 45% of the public think the UK should go ahead with Brexit irrespective of whether he can agree a better deal. But a similar proportion (41%) think Brexit should be delayed or cancelled altogether. |
| If the prime minister is unsuccessful in negotiating changes to the EU withdrawal agreement and parliament forces the government to seek a further extension, 57% believe a fresh general election should called. | If the prime minister is unsuccessful in negotiating changes to the EU withdrawal agreement and parliament forces the government to seek a further extension, 57% believe a fresh general election should called. |
| Opinium’s polling was carried out between 24 and 26 July. | Opinium’s polling was carried out between 24 and 26 July. |
| Boris Johnson | Boris Johnson |
| Observer Opinium politics polls | Observer Opinium politics polls |
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| Jeremy Corbyn | Jeremy Corbyn |
| Opinion polls | Opinion polls |
| Liberal Democrats | Liberal Democrats |
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