All bets are off if Boris Johnson calls an early election

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/27/boris-johnson-early-election-dilemma

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Brenda from Bristol (“You’re joking – not another one!”) is not alone in dreading the idea of another general election. A poll by YouGov last week found that fewer than four in 10 of us think the new prime minister should go to the country, while a few weeks ago BritainThinks found that 70% believe an election would not solve the problems that we face. Those problems: rising crime, cash-starved schools and hospitals and, of course, Brexit, are a source of national gloom.

Our “mood of the nation” survey, reported by the Observer last month, makes bleak reading. Boris Johnson clearly gets this, but his talk of sun-lit uplands and “can do” seems a rather literal response to this collective pessimism. In fact, as the survey makes clear, Britons are miserable because we fear our politicians are too incompetent to plot their way out of the mess we’re in, not because they lack positive attitude.

Johnson is not short on optimism himself, but while this has excited the Tory party membership, ordinary voters seem much less persuaded. Once a politician whose appeal seemed to transcend politics and whose reach earned him the Heineken tag, he now has a more nuanced reputation.

Polling last week found that 47% claimed to be “disappointed” or “dismayed” by his appointment while only 28% were “delighted” or “pleased”. For all his patriotic promise, seven out of 10 believe that he has put his own career ahead of the national interest. Focus groups reveal that many voters have reservations about Johnson’s competence, and believe that he also has “trust issues” – 59% said they wouldn’t buy a used car from him.

That said, Johnson and his party are likely to enjoy a significant poll boost. Weary of the status quo, voters are almost always willing to put hope before experience and give a newcomer the benefit of the doubt – at least for a while.

Back in 2007, I was part of the team preparing for Gordon Brown’s move to No 10. In preparation we looked at the fate of previous “transitional” prime ministers. Our analysis showed that a few months tended to be as good as it got. Incomers would enjoy a short high which was almost never exceeded and rarely sustained.

And so it proved to be. The initial “Brown bounce” in July that year elevated Labour to its best score since David Cameron had become opposition leader: an 8% lead. But by 4 October the two main parties were again neck and neck, and just a week later, following the fallout from Brown’s decision not to call a general election, the Tories had gained a 7% lead.

Voters may not want another election but they do want a leader who can sort the issues damaging our country

Once the most popular politician in Britain, the new prime minister’s standing took a hefty blow. Focus groups were vocal about their disappointment: “I thought he was a toughie but now I wonder if he’s up to the top job”. It was a blow from which Brown would never recover, much to the despair of those of us who had urged an early election.

Theresa May attempted to learn from this lesson, but Johnson may feel more cautious following her humiliation in 2017. However, May’s disastrous campaign performance confirms rather than questions the “go early” rule which is basically based on voters assuming the best until they know the worst.

There is no evidence to suggest that waiting longer would have improved May’s chances – once the electorate got to know her it seems the game was over, especially given she was up against another – initially appealing – newcomer (new to the electorate at any rate) in the shape of Jeremy Corbyn.

Two years on and Corbyn now has the distinction of being the most unpopular opposition leader since polls began – a factor that Team Johnson will surely bear in mind as they consider timing.

Another consideration is the changing electoral landscape, much more complex, and harder to read than it was in 2017. Back then the Tories and Labour collectively scooped up more than 80% of the vote. Brexit has dealt a hammer blow to what was then a binary contest. The resurgent Lib Dems will challenge Johnson in some areas, but the bigger threat comes from Nigel Farage and the Brexit party. Timing will be all – if Johnson is able to call an election having pulled off Brexit then Farage’s appeal will fall away. If he is unable to keep to his 31 October pledge then all bets are off.

Voters may not want another election, but they do want a leader who can sort the issues they feel are damaging our country. Some 86% say that a strong leader is more important now than ever before. Whether Johnson fits the bill remains to be seen. Asked a few weeks ago, voters – yet to bask in the warm rays of his energising leadership – were typically downbeat. Most rightly assumed that Johnson would take the crown but just 21% felt confident that the new prime minister – whoever it was – would be up to the task ahead.

Deborah Mattinson is founder and director of the research and strategy consultancy BritainThinks