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| Scottish Tories still anxious over Johnson's impact on the union | Scottish Tories still anxious over Johnson's impact on the union |
| (31 minutes later) | |
| Scottish Conservatives are braced for an immediate charm offensive from their new UK leader, with concerns in the party about the impact of Boris Johnson’s leadership on support for independence tempered by pragmatism. | Scottish Conservatives are braced for an immediate charm offensive from their new UK leader, with concerns in the party about the impact of Boris Johnson’s leadership on support for independence tempered by pragmatism. |
| There is a mood of grim acceptance among those Scottish Tories who supported the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt. As one prominent Scottish Tory and Johnson critic put it, watching the leadership results was “like the Trump election or Brexit morning – we just don’t know which will have the biggest hangover yet”. | There is a mood of grim acceptance among those Scottish Tories who supported the foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt. As one prominent Scottish Tory and Johnson critic put it, watching the leadership results was “like the Trump election or Brexit morning – we just don’t know which will have the biggest hangover yet”. |
| The tweeted congratulations from Scottish Tory MPs – the majority of whom backed Johnson – and MSPs – who mainly backed Jeremy Hunt – have uniformly emphasised the importance of safeguarding the UK. | The tweeted congratulations from Scottish Tory MPs – the majority of whom backed Johnson – and MSPs – who mainly backed Jeremy Hunt – have uniformly emphasised the importance of safeguarding the UK. |
| Johnson is expected to underline his commitment to the union as he makes one of his first appearances as prime minister on a trip to Scotland over the weekend or early next week after a visit to the pro-Brexit heartland of north-east England later this week. | |
| Early in the leadership campaign, Scottish Conservative critics told the Guardian a Johnson premiership would spell “catastrophe” for the party, boosting support for independence and bolstering Scottish nationalist arguments that Westminster represents only a wealthy, southern elite. | |
| A Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times Scotland towards the end of June found support for independence would jump to 53% if Johnson became prime minister, giving the yes campaign a six-point lead. | A Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times Scotland towards the end of June found support for independence would jump to 53% if Johnson became prime minister, giving the yes campaign a six-point lead. |
| Johnson telephoned the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, who supported Jeremy Hunt, after first backing Sajid Javid and then Michael Gove, within hours of his win. Davidson has made no secret of her reservations about Johnson and told BBC Scotland she would judge him by his actions. She added that he would “have to make a pretty good fist of it pretty early” because of the challenges he faced. | |
| The first task of any new PM involves rewarding some loyal allies and disappointing more. Several Johnson loyalists have had their eye on the post of chancellor, but only one can do it. A complete clearout of May’s remain-minded ministers is expected. | The first task of any new PM involves rewarding some loyal allies and disappointing more. Several Johnson loyalists have had their eye on the post of chancellor, but only one can do it. A complete clearout of May’s remain-minded ministers is expected. |
| The issue that will define a Johnson premiership. He has promised to rapidly renegotiate almost all of May’s departure deal, ditching the Irish backstop border guarantee policy, something that would seem a huge task over any timescale, let alone little more than 12 weeks, a fair proportion of which is taken up by a summer break. If this fails, he will be set on a no-deal departure for 31 October, and a likely huge clash with MPs. | The issue that will define a Johnson premiership. He has promised to rapidly renegotiate almost all of May’s departure deal, ditching the Irish backstop border guarantee policy, something that would seem a huge task over any timescale, let alone little more than 12 weeks, a fair proportion of which is taken up by a summer break. If this fails, he will be set on a no-deal departure for 31 October, and a likely huge clash with MPs. |
| If Brexit wasn’t enough, a new Johnson government must immediately take steps to make sure he doesn’t begin his time in No 10 with a slide into war. The situation in the gulf is complex, fast-moving and hugely dangerous. Johnson did not cover himself in glory as foreign secretary, especially over Iran. It will be his task to prove he has learned. | If Brexit wasn’t enough, a new Johnson government must immediately take steps to make sure he doesn’t begin his time in No 10 with a slide into war. The situation in the gulf is complex, fast-moving and hugely dangerous. Johnson did not cover himself in glory as foreign secretary, especially over Iran. It will be his task to prove he has learned. |
| Johnson will start as PM with a working Commons majority of four, thanks to the DUP, but within weeks it is likely to be down to three if as expected the Liberal Democrats win in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection. If this wasn’t tricky enough, a small but significant section of Tory MPs openly detest Johnson, and will not want to help him out. | Johnson will start as PM with a working Commons majority of four, thanks to the DUP, but within weeks it is likely to be down to three if as expected the Liberal Democrats win in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection. If this wasn’t tricky enough, a small but significant section of Tory MPs openly detest Johnson, and will not want to help him out. |
| Such has been the fiscal largesse on display from both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt during the hustings process that much as he will seek to kick any decisions towards an autumn budget, voters – especially Tory members – will be expecting both tax cuts and more spending on areas such as education and the police. | Such has been the fiscal largesse on display from both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt during the hustings process that much as he will seek to kick any decisions towards an autumn budget, voters – especially Tory members – will be expecting both tax cuts and more spending on areas such as education and the police. |
| This might sound glib, but there is a lot to consider – during the three-plus years of Brexit introversion May’s government failed to properly grasp any of a series of long-term, pressing national problems: the crisis in social care; the future of the NHS; a climate emergency; the increasingly insecure future of work; a broken housing market; rampant poverty, including among many working people. This is a huge workload for any new administration. | This might sound glib, but there is a lot to consider – during the three-plus years of Brexit introversion May’s government failed to properly grasp any of a series of long-term, pressing national problems: the crisis in social care; the future of the NHS; a climate emergency; the increasingly insecure future of work; a broken housing market; rampant poverty, including among many working people. This is a huge workload for any new administration. |
| Critics might say this is Johnson’s single biggest challenge. The leadership process has shown that while he endlessly harked back to supposed successes as London mayor – an often ceremonial role with relatively few powers – Johnson was notably quieter about his period as foreign secretary. | Critics might say this is Johnson’s single biggest challenge. The leadership process has shown that while he endlessly harked back to supposed successes as London mayor – an often ceremonial role with relatively few powers – Johnson was notably quieter about his period as foreign secretary. |
| Being prime minister is like the latter, to a factor of 10 – a never-ending succession of red boxes containing vital documents, of urgent briefings, of a whole system hanging on your decisions. Johnson has a tendency to ignore advice, pluck statistics out of the air and rely on sudden, cheap glibness. Curbing these long habits will be a daily struggle. | Being prime minister is like the latter, to a factor of 10 – a never-ending succession of red boxes containing vital documents, of urgent briefings, of a whole system hanging on your decisions. Johnson has a tendency to ignore advice, pluck statistics out of the air and rely on sudden, cheap glibness. Curbing these long habits will be a daily struggle. |
| Peter Walker Political correspondent | Peter Walker Political correspondent |
| Many in the Scottish party were pleased with how prominent discussion of the union was during the leadership contest. | |
| After Theresa May used her last speech in Scotland as prime minister to warn her successor of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the unity of the UK, Johnson and Hunt both insisted that the union must come first, with Johnson committing to set up a “union unit” within Downing Street and support more direct funding of projects in Scotland. | After Theresa May used her last speech in Scotland as prime minister to warn her successor of the consequences of a no-deal Brexit for the unity of the UK, Johnson and Hunt both insisted that the union must come first, with Johnson committing to set up a “union unit” within Downing Street and support more direct funding of projects in Scotland. |
| But senior Scottish Tory insiders are very aware that much depends on the tone Johnson strikes in the coming days and weeks – “the clock starts now” said one – and how effectively he factors Scotland into the “new spirit of can-do” he promised in his acceptance speech on Tuesday. | |
| Gordon Brown wants to save Britain. It might be too late for that | Ruth Wishart | Gordon Brown wants to save Britain. It might be too late for that | Ruth Wishart |
| “So much of this is down to nuance,” says one senior party source, “and there are lots of ways to get things wrong. The test will be whether he does take advice from people more experienced in Scottish politics. | “So much of this is down to nuance,” says one senior party source, “and there are lots of ways to get things wrong. The test will be whether he does take advice from people more experienced in Scottish politics. |
| “The indications are good that he understands he needs to take advice from Ruth Davidson, [current Scottish secretary] David Mundell and colleagues. There is a consciousness of how no deal plays into the hands of the SNP and a preparedness on the part of Scottish Tory MPs to take him at his word.” | “The indications are good that he understands he needs to take advice from Ruth Davidson, [current Scottish secretary] David Mundell and colleagues. There is a consciousness of how no deal plays into the hands of the SNP and a preparedness on the part of Scottish Tory MPs to take him at his word.” |
| This follows what was described as a “businesslike” and “positive” meeting last Wednesday between Johnson and 11 out of the 13 Scottish Conservatives at Westminster. Johnson is also known to recognise the importance of the Scottish MPs in terms of parliamentary arithmetic. | This follows what was described as a “businesslike” and “positive” meeting last Wednesday between Johnson and 11 out of the 13 Scottish Conservatives at Westminster. Johnson is also known to recognise the importance of the Scottish MPs in terms of parliamentary arithmetic. |
| Colin Clark, the Scottish Tory MP who unseated former SNP leader Alex Salmond in the 2017 election and has been a vocal supporter of Johnson, said the new leader “clearly recognises” that he has 13 Scottish MPs who want to feed into policy decisions and that he was “very open to hearing ideas”. | Colin Clark, the Scottish Tory MP who unseated former SNP leader Alex Salmond in the 2017 election and has been a vocal supporter of Johnson, said the new leader “clearly recognises” that he has 13 Scottish MPs who want to feed into policy decisions and that he was “very open to hearing ideas”. |
| Clark insisted Johnson’s positivity would win over Scottish Tory doubters. “Enthusiasm is infectious. He will offer a complete contrast to the defeatist, grievance-based politics of the current Scottish government,” he said. | |
| Nevertheless, anxieties remain. While elected Tory members may be ready to reset the clock, they remain uncertain about their voters. The electoral successes at Holyrood in 2016 and Westminster in 2017 were a result of Davidson’s comprehensive remodelling of the party, subtly changing policy emphasis and bringing in talented individuals who did not fit the traditional Tory mould. Scottish Conservatives are well aware that Johnson does not carry that same message and what a challenge it will be to explain that on the doorstep. | |
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