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Could there be an early general election? | Could there be an early general election? |
(6 days later) | |
Boris Johnson, the UK's new prime minister, has ruled out holding a general election before the 31 October Brexit deadline. However, some MPs say they are willing to trigger one. | |
But is there enough time to hold a poll before Brexit day? | |
Is an election inevitable? | Is an election inevitable? |
There is nothing in law that says Mr Johnson must hold a general election. | |
A UK Parliament lasts for a maximum of five years. As the last general election was held in 2017, Boris Johnson could wait until 2022 before holding a poll - assuming he retains support from most MPs. | |
Can the prime minister hold an early election? | Can the prime minister hold an early election? |
To call an early election a prime minister needs the agreement of at least 66% of MPs. | |
Theresa May used this power to hold the 2017 general election - just two years after the previous poll. | Theresa May used this power to hold the 2017 general election - just two years after the previous poll. |
The new prime minister could do the same - in the hope of winning more seats, to make it easier to pass new laws and deliver Brexit. | The new prime minister could do the same - in the hope of winning more seats, to make it easier to pass new laws and deliver Brexit. |
However, this scenario seems unlikely as Mr Johnson says he doesn't want a snap election before 31 October. | |
Could a prime minister be made to have an election? | Could a prime minister be made to have an election? |
Mr Johnson has refused to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. This would see the UK immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process. | Mr Johnson has refused to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. This would see the UK immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process. |
That worries some MPs, most of whom are against a no-deal Brexit. In order to try to stop such an outcome, MPs could attempt to defeat the government in a "vote of no confidence". | |
If such a vote was called, MPs would have to decide whether they want the current government to continue. For the vote of no confidence to succeed, it might require some Conservative MPs to vote against their own government. | |
If this passes, the government can stay on for 14 days to try to persuade MPs to change their minds. | |
Other parties might also try to come together to form a government during this period - but this would require the current prime minister to resign. | Other parties might also try to come together to form a government during this period - but this would require the current prime minister to resign. |
If nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered. | If nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered. |
If such a scenario plays out, Boris Johnson would have to advise the Queen when the election would happen. | |
Traditionally, this would be as soon as practically possible. | |
Once the date is known, Parliament shuts down - or dissolves - 25 days before the poll. This allows MPs to campaign for re-election. | Once the date is known, Parliament shuts down - or dissolves - 25 days before the poll. This allows MPs to campaign for re-election. |
How soon could a general election happen? | How soon could a general election happen? |
Even with a successful no confidence motion, it would be extremely tight to organise a general election before 31 October. | |
MPs did not call a confidence vote before Westminster went on its summer break. That means 3 September, when Parliament next sits, is now the earliest opportunity to do so. | |
Assuming the confidence vote is held and passed the next day, the 14-day period the government has to win back support would expire on 18 September. | |
If that happens, the prime minister could choose to call the election the next day. That would mean dissolving Parliament on 20 September, signalling the start of the five week campaign. | |
The House of Commons Library told the BBC, that such an scenario would leave Friday 25 October as the earliest possible election day - less than one week before Brexit day. | |
To hold an election on a day other than a Thursday would be extremely unusual. In fact, you have to go back to Tuesday 27 October 1931 to find the last time this happened. | |
Could the prime minister speed things up? | |
A compliant prime minister could speed things up. | |
Instead of having a 14-day period after losing any no confidence motion, the prime minister could decide to call an election. | |
He would still need the votes of at least 66% of MPs, but that would trim two weeks off the election timetable. | |
Could the prime minister slow things down? | |
If, on the other hand, the prime minister was determined to leave the EU on 31 October, he could try to delay things. | |
"Even if a vote of no confidence was successful, it doesn't guarantee the election will happen before Brexit day," says Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank. | |
That's because the prime minister controls the timetable. | |
"For example, they could extend the wash-up [the period where some unfinished Parliamentary business is dealt with] before Parliament is dissolved," she says. | "For example, they could extend the wash-up [the period where some unfinished Parliamentary business is dealt with] before Parliament is dissolved," she says. |
By doing this, the election could be pushed into November - by which point the UK would have already left the EU. | |
So ultimately, it is in the hands of the prime minster, rather than Parliament, to guarantee an election before Brexit is due to happen. |