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Could there be an early general election? Could there be an early general election?
(6 days later)
Boris Johnson is the new leader of the Conservative Party and will become the UK prime minister on Wednesday. Boris Johnson, the UK's new prime minister, has ruled out holding a general election before the 31 October Brexit deadline. However, some MPs say they are willing to trigger one.
Mr Johnson has ruled out holding a general election before the 31 October Brexit deadline. However, some MPs say they are willing to trigger one. But is there enough time to hold a poll before Brexit day?
So, how soon could the UK be going back to the polls?
Is an election inevitable?Is an election inevitable?
There is nothing in law that says Mr Johnson must hold a general election when he takes over from Theresa May. There is nothing in law that says Mr Johnson must hold a general election.
As long as the Conservatives remain in power, the new party leader becomes prime minister automatically, assuming they continue to have support from most MPs. A UK Parliament lasts for a maximum of five years. As the last general election was held in 2017, Boris Johnson could wait until 2022 before holding a poll - assuming he retains support from most MPs.
This is not unprecedented. When Gordon Brown took over as Labour prime minister from Tony Blair in 2007, he waited until 2010 before holding an election.
A UK Parliament lasts for a maximum of five years. As the last general election was held in 2017, the next one would not be due until 2022.
Can the prime minister hold an early election?Can the prime minister hold an early election?
The prime minister used to be able to call an early election when they wanted to. To call an early election a prime minister needs the agreement of at least 66% of MPs.
That changed in 2011, when a law called the Fixed Term Parliaments Act was brought in.
Now, a prime minister needs the votes of 66% of MPs to call an early election.
Theresa May used this power to hold the 2017 general election - just two years after the previous poll.Theresa May used this power to hold the 2017 general election - just two years after the previous poll.
The new prime minister could do the same - in the hope of winning more seats, to make it easier to pass new laws and deliver Brexit.The new prime minister could do the same - in the hope of winning more seats, to make it easier to pass new laws and deliver Brexit.
However, this scenario seems unlikely as Mr Johnson says he is against a snap election. However, this scenario seems unlikely as Mr Johnson says he doesn't want a snap election before 31 October.
Could a prime minister be made to have an election?Could a prime minister be made to have an election?
Mr Johnson has refused to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. This would see the UK immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process.Mr Johnson has refused to rule out the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. This would see the UK immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process.
That worries some MPs, most of whom are against a no-deal Brexit. They fear it could harm the economy and lead to border posts in Ireland. That worries some MPs, most of whom are against a no-deal Brexit. In order to try to stop such an outcome, MPs could attempt to defeat the government in a "vote of no confidence".
In order to stop a no deal, MPs could try to defeat the government in a "vote of no confidence". If such a vote was called, MPs would have to decide whether they want the current government to continue. For the vote of no confidence to succeed, it might require some Conservative MPs to vote against their own government.
In this procedure MPs have to decide whether they want the current government to continue. For the vote of no confidence to succeed, it might require some Conservative MPs to vote against their own government. If this passes, the government can stay on for 14 days to try to persuade MPs to change their minds.
If this passes, the Fixed Term Parliaments Act allows the government to stay on for 14 days, to try to persuade MPs to change their minds.
Other parties might also try to come together to form a government during this period - but this would require the current prime minister to resign.Other parties might also try to come together to form a government during this period - but this would require the current prime minister to resign.
If nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered.If nothing is resolved after 14 days, a general election is automatically triggered.
If such a scenario plays out, the new prime minister - Boris Johnson - would still not have to resign. If such a scenario plays out, Boris Johnson would have to advise the Queen when the election would happen.
But he would have to advise the Queen when the election will happen. Traditionally, this would be as soon as practically possible. Traditionally, this would be as soon as practically possible.
Once the date is known, Parliament shuts down - or dissolves - 25 days before the poll. This allows MPs to campaign for re-election.Once the date is known, Parliament shuts down - or dissolves - 25 days before the poll. This allows MPs to campaign for re-election.
How soon could a general election happen?How soon could a general election happen?
An early election would depend on how soon any vote of no confidence was passed. Even with a successful no confidence motion, it would be extremely tight to organise a general election before 31 October.
Parliament is due to break up for summer on 25 July - just one day after the new prime minister officially starts. MPs did not call a confidence vote before Westminster went on its summer break. That means 3 September, when Parliament next sits, is now the earliest opportunity to do so.
If MPs managed to organise and pass a no confidence vote on the final day, the 14-day period would end on 8 August. Assuming the confidence vote is held and passed the next day, the 14-day period the government has to win back support would expire on 18 September.
Assuming the government didn't regain the confidence of MPs, the House of Commons Library says that either Thursday 19 or 26 September would then be the most likely date for a general election. If that happens, the prime minister could choose to call the election the next day. That would mean dissolving Parliament on 20 September, signalling the start of the five week campaign.
That would give the winner of the election just over a month to decide what to do about the 31 October Brexit deadline. The House of Commons Library told the BBC, that such an scenario would leave Friday 25 October as the earliest possible election day - less than one week before Brexit day.
If, on the other hand, MPs don't hold a no confidence vote before the summer break, they would have to wait until at least 3 September - when Parliament next sits - before they hold it. To hold an election on a day other than a Thursday would be extremely unusual. In fact, you have to go back to Tuesday 27 October 1931 to find the last time this happened.
In this case, Thursday 19 September would be the earliest possible date to dissolve Parliament. Could the prime minister speed things up?
This would leave Thursday 24 October as a possible election date. A compliant prime minister could speed things up.
That's just one week before the UK's scheduled departure from the EU. Instead of having a 14-day period after losing any no confidence motion, the prime minister could decide to call an election.
Could the prime minister delay the election date? He would still need the votes of at least 66% of MPs, but that would trim two weeks off the election timetable.
The scenarios described by the House of Commons Library assume the prime minister is relatively compliant. Could the prime minister slow things down?
It's not impossible that a prime minister - determined to leave the EU on 31 October - could try to delay things. If, on the other hand, the prime minister was determined to leave the EU on 31 October, he could try to delay things.
"Even if a vote of no confidence was successful on 3 September, it doesn't guarantee the election will happen before Brexit day," says Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank. "Even if a vote of no confidence was successful, it doesn't guarantee the election will happen before Brexit day," says Catherine Haddon, from the Institute for Government think tank.
That's because the prime minister ultimately controls the timetable. That's because the prime minister controls the timetable.
"For example, they could extend the wash-up [the period where some unfinished Parliamentary business is dealt with] before Parliament is dissolved," she says."For example, they could extend the wash-up [the period where some unfinished Parliamentary business is dealt with] before Parliament is dissolved," she says.
By doing this, the election could be pushed into November, or beyond. By doing this, the election could be pushed into November - by which point the UK would have already left the EU.
And by then, the UK would have already left the EU. So ultimately, it is in the hands of the prime minster, rather than Parliament, to guarantee an election before Brexit is due to happen.