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Hong Kong's protests are a personal challenge to strongman Xi Jinping Hong Kong's protests are a personal challenge to strongman Xi Jinping
(about 4 hours later)
The escalating protests in Hong Kong pose a personal challenge to the autocratic rule of Xi Jinping, whose implacable domination of Chinese public life since 2012 has drawn comparisons with Mao Zedong.The escalating protests in Hong Kong pose a personal challenge to the autocratic rule of Xi Jinping, whose implacable domination of Chinese public life since 2012 has drawn comparisons with Mao Zedong.
Hong Kong protesters attempt to storm government headquarters – liveHong Kong protesters attempt to storm government headquarters – live
Xi has distanced himself from the turmoil so far. But the scale and persistence of the unrest, combined with growing street violence, may force him to get involved – or risk losing his “strongman” image.Xi has distanced himself from the turmoil so far. But the scale and persistence of the unrest, combined with growing street violence, may force him to get involved – or risk losing his “strongman” image.
Probably to Beijing’s surprise, the demonstrations over a proposed extradition law have continued despite an unusual, albeit partial government climbdown. That points to deeper grievances about Beijing’s slow-burn attempts to curb Hong Kong’s freedoms, the lack of full democratic rights and, more generally, the threatening atmosphere created by Xi’s aggressive authoritarianism.Probably to Beijing’s surprise, the demonstrations over a proposed extradition law have continued despite an unusual, albeit partial government climbdown. That points to deeper grievances about Beijing’s slow-burn attempts to curb Hong Kong’s freedoms, the lack of full democratic rights and, more generally, the threatening atmosphere created by Xi’s aggressive authoritarianism.
This wider context, particularly unsettling for Hong Kong residents, encompasses Xi’s record of unbending hostility to political pluralism in mainland China, ever more pervasive internet and media censorship, increased social regimentation, and human rights abuses – notably the persecution of ethnic and religious minorities such as Xinjiang’s Muslim Uighur community.This wider context, particularly unsettling for Hong Kong residents, encompasses Xi’s record of unbending hostility to political pluralism in mainland China, ever more pervasive internet and media censorship, increased social regimentation, and human rights abuses – notably the persecution of ethnic and religious minorities such as Xinjiang’s Muslim Uighur community.
Opposition to a proposed extradition law has broadened into a wider movement against Hong Kong’s leadership, its relationship with China  and the future of the special administrative region. The protests were triggered by a controversial bill that would have allowed extraditions to mainland China, where the Communist party controls the courts, but have since evolved into a broader pro-democracy movement.
Hong Kong’s chief executive, Carrie Lam, has offered a ‘solemn’ personal apology for the crisis and also hinted that she had in effect shelved the controversial legislation. However, protesters criticised her as insincere and said she had ignored their key demands. The demonstrations have continued. Public anger – fuelled by the aggressive tactics used by the police against demonstrators – has collided with years of frustration over worsening inequality and the cost of living in one of the world's most expensive, densely populated cities.
The bill concerned legal changes that would make it easier to extradite people from Hong Kong to China. Supporters say the amendments are key to ensuring the city does not become a criminal refuge, but critics worry Beijing will use the law to extradite political opponents and others to China. Under the amended law, those accused of offences punishable by seven years or more in prison could be extradited. The protest movement was given fresh impetus on 21 July when gangs of men attacked protesters and commuters at a mass transit station – while authorities seemingly did little to intervene. 
The government claims the push to change the law, which would also apply to Taiwan and Macau, stems from the killing last year of a Hong Kong woman while she was in Taiwan with her boyfriend. Authorities in Taiwan suspect the woman’s boyfriend, who remains in Hong Kong, but cannot try him because no extradition agreement is in place.  Underlying the movement is a push for full democracy in the city, whose leader is chosen by a committee dominated by a pro-Beijing establishment rather than by direct elections.
Officials have promised to safeguard against abuses, pledging that no one at risk of political or religious persecution will be sent to the mainland. Suspects who could face the death penalty would not be extradited. Protesters have vowed to keep their movement going until their core demands are met, such as the resignation of the city's leader, Carrie Lam, an independent inquiry into police tactics, an amnesty for those arrested and a permanent withdrawal of the bill.
Hong Kong officials have repeatedly said the bill has not come from the central government in Beijing. However, Beijing has voiced its backing for the changes. Hongkongers have seen Beijing’s influence grow in recent years, as activists have been jailed and pro-democracy lawmakers disqualified from running or holding office. Independent booksellers have disappeared from the city, before reappearing in mainland China facing charges.
Many fear the proposed extradition law will be used by authorities to target political enemies. They worry the new legislation spells the end of the ‘one country, two systems’ policy, eroding the civil rights enjoyed by Hong Kong residents since the handover of sovereignty from the UK to China in 1997. Under the terms of the agreement by which the former British colony was returned to Chinese control in 1997, the semi-autonomous region was meant to maintain a “high degree of autonomy” through an independent judiciary, a free press and an open market economy, a framework known as “one country, two systems”.
Many attending the protests say they cannot trust China because it has often used non-political crimes to target government critics. They also fear Hong Kong officials will not be able to reject Beijing’s requests. Legal professionals have also expressed concern over the rights of those sent across the border to be tried. The conviction rate in Chinese courts is as high as 99%. Arbitrary detentions, torture and denial of legal representation of one’s choosing are also common. The extradition bill was seen as an attempt to undermine this and to give Beijing the ability to try pro-democracy activists under the judicial system of the mainland.
Police have clashed directly with demonstrators, and have been accused of standing by during attacks on protesters and commuters by groups of men in white in Yuen Long on 21 July.   Lam has shown no sign of backing down beyond agreeing to suspend the extradition bill, while Beijing has issued increasingly shrill condemnations but has left it to the city's semi-autonomous government to deal with the situation. Meanwhile police have violently clashed directly with protesters, repeatedly firing teargas and rubber bullets.
After the current crisis, analysts believe the Hong Kong government will probably start a new round of retaliatory measures against its critics, while the Chinese government will tighten its grip on the city. Lily Kuo and Verna Yu in Hong Kong
Lily Kuo in Beijing and Verna Yu in Hong Kong
In a keynote speech in December, Xi reasserted the leading role of the Communist party in uncompromising terms. “Whether it’s the government, the army, ordinary people or students, the east, the west, the south, the north or the middle, the party leads everything,” he said. This sort of language must appear oddly anachronistic to many in Hong Kong, a former British colony steeped in western liberal traditions.In a keynote speech in December, Xi reasserted the leading role of the Communist party in uncompromising terms. “Whether it’s the government, the army, ordinary people or students, the east, the west, the south, the north or the middle, the party leads everything,” he said. This sort of language must appear oddly anachronistic to many in Hong Kong, a former British colony steeped in western liberal traditions.
Chinese officials are fond of saying Hong Kong benefits from China’s economic strength and “the affluence of the motherland”. But many in Hong Kong take the opposite view, noting that under Xi’s centralised, dirigiste policies, China’s economic growth has slowed significantly. Critics claim Xi has been blindsided by Donald Trump’s trade war and weakened by problems with his ambitious Belt and Road initiative.Chinese officials are fond of saying Hong Kong benefits from China’s economic strength and “the affluence of the motherland”. But many in Hong Kong take the opposite view, noting that under Xi’s centralised, dirigiste policies, China’s economic growth has slowed significantly. Critics claim Xi has been blindsided by Donald Trump’s trade war and weakened by problems with his ambitious Belt and Road initiative.
Xi’s failure to set out a new direction in his December speech, and his insistence on doing things the party way (meaning his way), suggested a degree of stubborn inflexibility that could prove dangerous for Hong Kong. Xi must fear the dissatisfaction becoming contagious and rising unemployment caused by the slowdown increasing social unrest. In the past year there has been public protests and strikes over layoffs, faulty vaccines, air pollution, inadequate pensions and other issues.Xi’s failure to set out a new direction in his December speech, and his insistence on doing things the party way (meaning his way), suggested a degree of stubborn inflexibility that could prove dangerous for Hong Kong. Xi must fear the dissatisfaction becoming contagious and rising unemployment caused by the slowdown increasing social unrest. In the past year there has been public protests and strikes over layoffs, faulty vaccines, air pollution, inadequate pensions and other issues.
In a candid speech to the National People’s Congress in March, the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, warned of the dangers of rising discontent. “There is still public dissatisfaction in many areas, such as education, healthcare, elderly care, housing, food and drug safety, and income distribution. Last year saw a number of public safety incidents and major workplace incidents,” Li said.In a candid speech to the National People’s Congress in March, the Chinese premier, Li Keqiang, warned of the dangers of rising discontent. “There is still public dissatisfaction in many areas, such as education, healthcare, elderly care, housing, food and drug safety, and income distribution. Last year saw a number of public safety incidents and major workplace incidents,” Li said.
Xi will also worry that the turbulence in Hong Kong could take on an insurrectionary nature, especially if – as state media have already claimed – it is fomented by external actors. One obvious scapegoat is Taiwan, with which tensions have been steadily rising due to Xi’s tough reunification stance.Xi will also worry that the turbulence in Hong Kong could take on an insurrectionary nature, especially if – as state media have already claimed – it is fomented by external actors. One obvious scapegoat is Taiwan, with which tensions have been steadily rising due to Xi’s tough reunification stance.
The prosperous, democratic and de facto independent island nation of Taiwan, supported by Washington, stands as a permanent rebuke to China’s autocratic ruler. Xi would do almost anything to prevent Hong Kong following its example. Another related concern is that Hong Kong could be caught up in escalating rivalry with the US and its allies over control of the South China and East China seas.The prosperous, democratic and de facto independent island nation of Taiwan, supported by Washington, stands as a permanent rebuke to China’s autocratic ruler. Xi would do almost anything to prevent Hong Kong following its example. Another related concern is that Hong Kong could be caught up in escalating rivalry with the US and its allies over control of the South China and East China seas.
Yet Xi probably has little cause to worry about meddling by Trump. The US president rarely shows any interest in human rights or pro-democracy struggles, and has other fish to fry with China. Britain, too, has mostly kept its voice down. In need of China’s goodwill post-Brexit, it worries about upsetting a relationship already strained by the Huawei row. On Monday, Beijing bluntly told London to keep its nose out.Yet Xi probably has little cause to worry about meddling by Trump. The US president rarely shows any interest in human rights or pro-democracy struggles, and has other fish to fry with China. Britain, too, has mostly kept its voice down. In need of China’s goodwill post-Brexit, it worries about upsetting a relationship already strained by the Huawei row. On Monday, Beijing bluntly told London to keep its nose out.
The greatest fear of all, if the Hong Kong crisis deepens, is that China’s leaders may resort to brute force, as happened in Tiananmen Square 30 years ago. One reason why Xi will want to avoid a repeat is the storm of international condemnation, and the damage to China’s expanding power, reputation and economy that could ensue.The greatest fear of all, if the Hong Kong crisis deepens, is that China’s leaders may resort to brute force, as happened in Tiananmen Square 30 years ago. One reason why Xi will want to avoid a repeat is the storm of international condemnation, and the damage to China’s expanding power, reputation and economy that could ensue.
The Tiananmen massacre took place under a virtual media blackout. Mass murder would be harder to hide this time around.The Tiananmen massacre took place under a virtual media blackout. Mass murder would be harder to hide this time around.
ChinaChina
Hong KongHong Kong
Xi JinpingXi Jinping
Asia PacificAsia Pacific
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