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At G-20, Trump Seeks Fresh Start With Putin After End of Mueller Inquiry At G20, Trump Seeks Fresh Start With Putin After End of Mueller Inquiry
(about 8 hours later)
OSAKA, Japan — The last time he was to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin, President Trump called it off at the last minute, citing Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian ships and detention of two dozen Ukrainian sailors. They would meet, Mr. Trump declared, only after “this situation is resolved.”OSAKA, Japan — The last time he was to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin, President Trump called it off at the last minute, citing Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian ships and detention of two dozen Ukrainian sailors. They would meet, Mr. Trump declared, only after “this situation is resolved.”
Seven months later, the situation remains unresolved — and unmentioned. Even though the Ukrainian ships and sailors are still held by Russia, Mr. Trump has rescheduled his session with Mr. Putin for Friday in Osaka, Japan, where both leaders will attend the annual Group of 20 summit meeting and try to restart their relationship.Seven months later, the situation remains unresolved — and unmentioned. Even though the Ukrainian ships and sailors are still held by Russia, Mr. Trump has rescheduled his session with Mr. Putin for Friday in Osaka, Japan, where both leaders will attend the annual Group of 20 summit meeting and try to restart their relationship.
[What is the G-20?][What is the G-20?]
The conflict in the Sea of Azov may not be the only dispute left unaddressed when the two sit down. Mr. Trump indicated in recent days that he has no particular interest in bringing up Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, even after the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, concluded in his recent report that Moscow carried out a “sweeping and systematic” attack on American democracy.The conflict in the Sea of Azov may not be the only dispute left unaddressed when the two sit down. Mr. Trump indicated in recent days that he has no particular interest in bringing up Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election, even after the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, concluded in his recent report that Moscow carried out a “sweeping and systematic” attack on American democracy.
Instead, as they meet for the first time since Mr. Mueller’s investigation concluded, Mr. Trump hopes to put that issue behind them and pursue his long-held goal of warmer ties with Mr. Putin, even as House Democrats in Washington are intent on exploring Russian interference further by bringing the special counsel to testify.Instead, as they meet for the first time since Mr. Mueller’s investigation concluded, Mr. Trump hopes to put that issue behind them and pursue his long-held goal of warmer ties with Mr. Putin, even as House Democrats in Washington are intent on exploring Russian interference further by bringing the special counsel to testify.
Mr. Trump, who landed in Osaka on Thursday evening, has been coy about what he plans to discuss with Mr. Putin during their meeting scheduled for Friday afternoon. “I’ll have a very good conversation with him,” he told a reporter before leaving Washington on Wednesday. “What I say to him is none of your business.”Mr. Trump, who landed in Osaka on Thursday evening, has been coy about what he plans to discuss with Mr. Putin during their meeting scheduled for Friday afternoon. “I’ll have a very good conversation with him,” he told a reporter before leaving Washington on Wednesday. “What I say to him is none of your business.”
He has not considered it anyone else’s business either, even within his own government. He has talked with Mr. Putin at times without aides and at one point even took his official interpreter’s notes to keep anyone from being briefed.He has not considered it anyone else’s business either, even within his own government. He has talked with Mr. Putin at times without aides and at one point even took his official interpreter’s notes to keep anyone from being briefed.
At their last formal session, in Helsinki, Finland, last year, they met for two hours without anyone other than interpreters, and afterward Mr. Trump fueled a firestorm by giving Mr. Putin’s denial of election interference equal weight to the contrary conclusion of American intelligence agencies.At their last formal session, in Helsinki, Finland, last year, they met for two hours without anyone other than interpreters, and afterward Mr. Trump fueled a firestorm by giving Mr. Putin’s denial of election interference equal weight to the contrary conclusion of American intelligence agencies.
By some accounts, it appeared that Mr. Trump has not even deemed it Mr. Putin’s business what may be brought up in the meeting in Osaka. Russian officials have been left guessing what might be on the table. During a question-and-answer session last week, Mr. Putin himself gave the impression of someone whose ardent text messages are not being returned, at least not promptly.By some accounts, it appeared that Mr. Trump has not even deemed it Mr. Putin’s business what may be brought up in the meeting in Osaka. Russian officials have been left guessing what might be on the table. During a question-and-answer session last week, Mr. Putin himself gave the impression of someone whose ardent text messages are not being returned, at least not promptly.
“Even if the president wants to take a step forward, there are a lot of restraints placed on him by other institutions, a lot of checks,” Mr. Putin said of Mr. Trump. He added that he hoped the two could focus on “getting the relationship between the countries on a normal track in all spheres, including the economy.”“Even if the president wants to take a step forward, there are a lot of restraints placed on him by other institutions, a lot of checks,” Mr. Putin said of Mr. Trump. He added that he hoped the two could focus on “getting the relationship between the countries on a normal track in all spheres, including the economy.”
Trump administration officials said last week that the meeting had no formal agenda, but the two have plenty to talk about if they choose, including Iran, North Korea, Syria and Ukraine. Paul N. Whelan, a Trump supporter imprisoned by Russia on spy charges, last week publicly pleaded for Mr. Trump to raise his case. On top of that, The New York Times reported last week that the United States has been stepping up digital incursions into Russia’s electric power grid in a demonstration of American capacity to deploy cybertools more aggressively.Trump administration officials said last week that the meeting had no formal agenda, but the two have plenty to talk about if they choose, including Iran, North Korea, Syria and Ukraine. Paul N. Whelan, a Trump supporter imprisoned by Russia on spy charges, last week publicly pleaded for Mr. Trump to raise his case. On top of that, The New York Times reported last week that the United States has been stepping up digital incursions into Russia’s electric power grid in a demonstration of American capacity to deploy cybertools more aggressively.
Even so, the dynamics of the Trump-Putin meeting are a sign of how diminished Mr. Trump’s ambitions have become when it comes to Russia some two and a half years into his presidency. Rather than transforming the relationship from the hostility of recent years, as he once hoped, the main initiative aides have mentioned in recent days is a new arms control treaty he would like to negotiate with Russia and China, a notion that, in the view of experts, seems like a long shot at best.Even so, the dynamics of the Trump-Putin meeting are a sign of how diminished Mr. Trump’s ambitions have become when it comes to Russia some two and a half years into his presidency. Rather than transforming the relationship from the hostility of recent years, as he once hoped, the main initiative aides have mentioned in recent days is a new arms control treaty he would like to negotiate with Russia and China, a notion that, in the view of experts, seems like a long shot at best.
The idea of pivoting the relationship toward arms control also seems paradoxical given the Trump administration’s moves to dismantle the Russian-American security architecture that has limited nuclear arsenals for years. In February, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, negotiated by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, after accusing Moscow of violating its terms. The withdrawal becomes effective at the beginning of August.The idea of pivoting the relationship toward arms control also seems paradoxical given the Trump administration’s moves to dismantle the Russian-American security architecture that has limited nuclear arsenals for years. In February, Mr. Trump pulled the United States out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, negotiated by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, after accusing Moscow of violating its terms. The withdrawal becomes effective at the beginning of August.
At the same time, the administration has signaled in recent days that it plans to let the New Start treaty, negotiated by Barack Obama, expire in February 2021 rather than renew it for another five years. John R. Bolton, the president’s national security adviser, who met with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, in Jerusalem this week, said before leaving Washington that “there’s no decision, but I think it’s unlikely” the treaty would be renewed.At the same time, the administration has signaled in recent days that it plans to let the New Start treaty, negotiated by Barack Obama, expire in February 2021 rather than renew it for another five years. John R. Bolton, the president’s national security adviser, who met with his Russian counterpart, Nikolai Patrushev, in Jerusalem this week, said before leaving Washington that “there’s no decision, but I think it’s unlikely” the treaty would be renewed.
Mr. Bolton, a longtime skeptic of arms control agreements, said that New Start was flawed because it did not cover short-range tactical nuclear weapons or new Russian delivery systems. “So to extend for five years and not take these new delivery system threats into account would be malpractice,” he told The Washington Free Beacon, a conservative outlet.Mr. Bolton, a longtime skeptic of arms control agreements, said that New Start was flawed because it did not cover short-range tactical nuclear weapons or new Russian delivery systems. “So to extend for five years and not take these new delivery system threats into account would be malpractice,” he told The Washington Free Beacon, a conservative outlet.
Instead, what Mr. Bolton and other aides have discussed is a new three-way treaty that brings in China, a longtime nuclear power that has maintained a small arsenal as a deterrent without ever joining such an agreement. Mr. Bolton and his team argue that an old-fashioned Russian-American accord without China is no longer viable.Instead, what Mr. Bolton and other aides have discussed is a new three-way treaty that brings in China, a longtime nuclear power that has maintained a small arsenal as a deterrent without ever joining such an agreement. Mr. Bolton and his team argue that an old-fashioned Russian-American accord without China is no longer viable.
Whether a three-way deal is viable, however, is uncertain at best. Mr. Putin would like to recalibrate the relationship to focus on arms control, but on a one-to-one basis. He has complained repeatedly that Mr. Trump has not responded to his desire to renew the New Start treaty.Whether a three-way deal is viable, however, is uncertain at best. Mr. Putin would like to recalibrate the relationship to focus on arms control, but on a one-to-one basis. He has complained repeatedly that Mr. Trump has not responded to his desire to renew the New Start treaty.
“This is where President Putin would like to see this conversation — bilateral conversation — because it is where Russia is of equal strength to the United States,” said Heather A. Conley, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “There is a massive space here to think about arms control, yet there is no process that we are aware of.”“This is where President Putin would like to see this conversation — bilateral conversation — because it is where Russia is of equal strength to the United States,” said Heather A. Conley, director of the Europe program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “There is a massive space here to think about arms control, yet there is no process that we are aware of.”
Moreover, China has shown no interest in negotiating an arms control treaty, noting that it has a small fraction of the weapons that the United States and Russia have, as well as a no-first-use policy. In addition to his session with Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump is meeting in Osaka with President Xi Jinping, but that is already weighted by their tense trade dispute, with more tariffs hanging over the discussion.Moreover, China has shown no interest in negotiating an arms control treaty, noting that it has a small fraction of the weapons that the United States and Russia have, as well as a no-first-use policy. In addition to his session with Mr. Putin, Mr. Trump is meeting in Osaka with President Xi Jinping, but that is already weighted by their tense trade dispute, with more tariffs hanging over the discussion.
Mr. Trump’s advisers said that they had developed options for how such a negotiation could be conducted, and that the president would soon make a determination. In the meantime, Fiona Hill, the president’s top Russia adviser, is leaving at the end of the summer. She will be replaced by Tim Morrison, an arms control expert who oversees policy on weapons of mass destruction at the National Security Council.Mr. Trump’s advisers said that they had developed options for how such a negotiation could be conducted, and that the president would soon make a determination. In the meantime, Fiona Hill, the president’s top Russia adviser, is leaving at the end of the summer. She will be replaced by Tim Morrison, an arms control expert who oversees policy on weapons of mass destruction at the National Security Council.
Like Mr. Bolton, Mr. Morrison is a skeptic of past arms control negotiations, and Russian officials were unsure whether his selection would encourage progress or not.Like Mr. Bolton, Mr. Morrison is a skeptic of past arms control negotiations, and Russian officials were unsure whether his selection would encourage progress or not.
Administration officials insisted they were serious about pursuing an agreement. But many harbor doubts. It took Mr. Obama two years to negotiate New Start, and it was, in many ways, a simple, straightforward treaty between two countries that both wanted it and had long experience at making arms control deals. What Mr. Trump’s team is talking about is far more involved, especially if it attempts to bring in China, and there is only a year and a half left in the president’s term.Administration officials insisted they were serious about pursuing an agreement. But many harbor doubts. It took Mr. Obama two years to negotiate New Start, and it was, in many ways, a simple, straightforward treaty between two countries that both wanted it and had long experience at making arms control deals. What Mr. Trump’s team is talking about is far more involved, especially if it attempts to bring in China, and there is only a year and a half left in the president’s term.
Some experts suspect talk of a three-way accord is merely a feint to get rid of the New Start treaty. “If a trilateral deal is meant as a substitute or prerequisite for extending New Start, it is a poison pill, no ifs, ands or buts,” said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “If the president is seeking a trilateral deal as a follow-on to New Start, that’s a different thing.”Some experts suspect talk of a three-way accord is merely a feint to get rid of the New Start treaty. “If a trilateral deal is meant as a substitute or prerequisite for extending New Start, it is a poison pill, no ifs, ands or buts,” said Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. “If the president is seeking a trilateral deal as a follow-on to New Start, that’s a different thing.”