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Trump’s Slouching Toward War With Iran Is a Disgrace Trump’s Slouching Toward War With Iran Is a Disgrace
(about 3 hours later)
President Trump has been all over the place on Iran, which is what happens when you take a serious subject, treat it with farcical superficiality, believe braggadocio will sway a proud and ancient civilization, approach foreign policy like a real estate deal, defer to advisers with Iran Derangement Syndrome, refuse to read any briefing papers and confuse the American national interest with the Saudi or Israeli.President Trump has been all over the place on Iran, which is what happens when you take a serious subject, treat it with farcical superficiality, believe braggadocio will sway a proud and ancient civilization, approach foreign policy like a real estate deal, defer to advisers with Iran Derangement Syndrome, refuse to read any briefing papers and confuse the American national interest with the Saudi or Israeli.
This American slouching toward another Middle East war has been a disgrace, shot through with the twisting of truth or outright lies. Now Trump has approved, only to reverse, a retaliatory strike for the Iranian downing of an American drone, an aptly chaotic culmination to the drift the president has allowed.This American slouching toward another Middle East war has been a disgrace, shot through with the twisting of truth or outright lies. Now Trump has approved, only to reverse, a retaliatory strike for the Iranian downing of an American drone, an aptly chaotic culmination to the drift the president has allowed.
The eleventh-hour calling-off of military action was the one wise decision Trump has taken on Iran since he took office. Dazzled by Saudi blandishments, Israeli veneration, the opportunity to trash Barack Obama’s diplomacy and the lure of evangelicals’ votes, Trump determined from day one that the Islamic Republic was the enemy from Central Casting. His view was unburdened by any serious assessment of how to balance toughness and engagement in the long-traumatized American-Iranian relationship. The 11th-hour calling-off of military action was the one wise decision Trump has taken on Iran since he took office. Dazzled by Saudi blandishments, Israeli veneration, the opportunity to trash Barack Obama’s diplomacy and the lure of evangelicals’ votes, Trump determined from Day 1 that the Islamic Republic was the enemy from Central Casting. His view was unburdened by any serious assessment of how to balance toughness and engagement in the long-traumatized American-Iranian relationship.
The United States does not need the war with Iran that John Bolton, the national security adviser, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seem determined to deliver. It would be a war of choice, illusion and irresponsibility. It would place Americans at risk across the Middle East, with no benefit to the United States or its allies.The United States does not need the war with Iran that John Bolton, the national security adviser, and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seem determined to deliver. It would be a war of choice, illusion and irresponsibility. It would place Americans at risk across the Middle East, with no benefit to the United States or its allies.
The Trump administration has been lucky. Now in a real crisis, and one of its own making, its cavalier ineptitude and absence of anything resembling process is on full public view. Threats and bombast get you just so far. Iran has called Trump’s bluff. The Trump administration has been lucky. Now, in a real crisis, and one of the administration’s own making, the cavalier ineptitude and absence of anything resembling process is on full public view. Threats and bombast get you just so far. Iran has called Trump’s bluff.
Just over a year ago, when Trump tore up the nuclear deal that the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China had hammered out over years of diplomacy to keep Iran from a bomb, I wrote:Just over a year ago, when Trump tore up the nuclear deal that the United States, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China had hammered out over years of diplomacy to keep Iran from a bomb, I wrote:
“President Trump is withdrawing the United States from an Iran nuclear deal that has worked, in the name of unrelated demands that are unworkable, at very high cost to America’s alliances and the value of its word, with no viable alternative policy in place and at the risk of igniting the Middle East.”“President Trump is withdrawing the United States from an Iran nuclear deal that has worked, in the name of unrelated demands that are unworkable, at very high cost to America’s alliances and the value of its word, with no viable alternative policy in place and at the risk of igniting the Middle East.”
Here we are, on the brink of ignition. Over the past year, Bolton has threatened military action multiple times, telling Iran there will be “hell to pay,” ratcheting up tensions wherever possible and extending potential pretexts for war. Pompeo has been a willing dance partner in this exercise. He has declared a determination to drive Iran’s oil exports to “zero” and energetically pursued the grotesque objective of conflating Iran, a Shia nation, with Al Qaeda, an expression of murderous Wahhabi Sunni extremism. In fact, as former Secretary of State John Kerry told me, “Iran has helped in the war against the ISIS,” another Sunni terrorist group. Here we are, on the brink of ignition. Over the past year, Bolton has threatened military action multiple times, telling Iran there will be “hell to pay,” ratcheting up tensions wherever possible and extending potential pretexts for war.
Pompeo has been a willing dance partner in this exercise. He has declared a determination to drive Iran’s oil exports to “zero” and energetically pursued the grotesque objective of conflating Iran, a Shia nation, with Al Qaeda, an expression of murderous Wahhabi Sunni extremism. In fact, as former Secretary of State John Kerry told me, “Iran has helped in the war against the ISIS,” another Sunni terrorist group.
The aim of the Bolton-Pompeo Iran-equals-Al-Qaeda maneuver has been obvious: to bring a war with Iran within the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force that was passed by Congress in response to Sept. 11, whose perpetrators were overwhelmingly Saudi. Shameless is the only word for such contempt for truth in pursuit of a casus belli.The aim of the Bolton-Pompeo Iran-equals-Al-Qaeda maneuver has been obvious: to bring a war with Iran within the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force that was passed by Congress in response to Sept. 11, whose perpetrators were overwhelmingly Saudi. Shameless is the only word for such contempt for truth in pursuit of a casus belli.
Where exactly the truth lies in the allegations and counter-allegations around the downing of the RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone — essentially a dispute over whether it had violated Iranian airspace — and the recent attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman is unclear. Iran has behaved provocatively. Then again, it has been provoked. It could not ignore the deployment to the region of some 2,500 American troops, an aircraft carrier group, B-52 bombers, missile batteries and the rest. It has said it does not seek war. Nor will it accept humiliation.Where exactly the truth lies in the allegations and counter-allegations around the downing of the RQ-4 Global Hawk surveillance drone — essentially a dispute over whether it had violated Iranian airspace — and the recent attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman is unclear. Iran has behaved provocatively. Then again, it has been provoked. It could not ignore the deployment to the region of some 2,500 American troops, an aircraft carrier group, B-52 bombers, missile batteries and the rest. It has said it does not seek war. Nor will it accept humiliation.
“The Trump administration policy has been unnecessary, counter-strategic and dangerous,” Kerry told me. “It has completely upended the legitimacy of approaching certain issues — Yemen, Hezbollah, missile technology — while having the nuclear issue in a box in the most accountable, transparent nuclear deal on the planet. All they have done is given life to the deeply held Iranian belief that you cannot trust or negotiate with the United States, while trying to squeeze Iran into economic oblivion in pursuit of regime change that would only hand power to the hard-line Republican Guards, not some democrat.” “The Trump administration policy has been unnecessary, counter-strategic and dangerous,” Kerry told me. “It has completely upended the legitimacy of approaching certain issues — Yemen, Hezbollah, missile technology — while having the nuclear issue in a box in the most accountable, transparent nuclear deal on the planet.
“All they have done is given life to the deeply held Iranian belief that you cannot trust or negotiate with the United States, while trying to squeeze Iran into economic oblivion in pursuit of regime change that would only hand power to the hard-line Republican Guards, not some democrat.”
The Islamic Republic is a repressive regime with a hideous human rights record that underwrites Hezbollah and pursues interests opposed to America’s across the Middle East. Since 1979, it has been an enemy of the United States. It is also a sophisticated society and substantial economy whose highly educated population seeks greater contacts with the West. Its political system is not monolithic.The Islamic Republic is a repressive regime with a hideous human rights record that underwrites Hezbollah and pursues interests opposed to America’s across the Middle East. Since 1979, it has been an enemy of the United States. It is also a sophisticated society and substantial economy whose highly educated population seeks greater contacts with the West. Its political system is not monolithic.
The strategic thinking behind the imperfect but effective nuclear deal, the fruit of painstaking diplomacy, was that it might over time bolster the more moderate forces in Iran. Trump’s ripping-up of the deal was a gift to the hard-liners. This month, Iran said it would stop honoring the limit on how much low-enriched uranium it is allowed under the deal to stockpile. How is that good for the United States, or indeed for Israel?The strategic thinking behind the imperfect but effective nuclear deal, the fruit of painstaking diplomacy, was that it might over time bolster the more moderate forces in Iran. Trump’s ripping-up of the deal was a gift to the hard-liners. This month, Iran said it would stop honoring the limit on how much low-enriched uranium it is allowed under the deal to stockpile. How is that good for the United States, or indeed for Israel?
The American miscalculation has been flagrant. Kerry said: “The C.I.A. has evidently been unable to penetrate Trump’s mind with a psychological profile of the people he’s dealing with. The Iranians have been around for several thousand years. This policy just tightens their willpower to hang in there.”The American miscalculation has been flagrant. Kerry said: “The C.I.A. has evidently been unable to penetrate Trump’s mind with a psychological profile of the people he’s dealing with. The Iranians have been around for several thousand years. This policy just tightens their willpower to hang in there.”
Trump the showman has lied and bragged his way into this mess. He tore up the nuclear deal only to declare later that his aim was to keep Iran from a bomb, which is what the deal did. He is a bully whose chief interests are his hold on power and his business empire. Those urges are tugging in opposing directions over Iran; hence the chaos.Trump the showman has lied and bragged his way into this mess. He tore up the nuclear deal only to declare later that his aim was to keep Iran from a bomb, which is what the deal did. He is a bully whose chief interests are his hold on power and his business empire. Those urges are tugging in opposing directions over Iran; hence the chaos.
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist at the White House, told me: “I don’t think any Trump supporters support further military engagement in the Middle East right now. His default position is not to be an interventionist. I never thought he’d be this far down this path, and I’m not loving the trend line. For the Trump base, war would hurt.”Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist at the White House, told me: “I don’t think any Trump supporters support further military engagement in the Middle East right now. His default position is not to be an interventionist. I never thought he’d be this far down this path, and I’m not loving the trend line. For the Trump base, war would hurt.”
“Worse than a crime, a mistake,” are words often attributed to Talleyrand, Napoleon’s chief diplomat. Trump should not stumble from the everyday outrages that are his political staple into catastrophic error in matters of war and peace.“Worse than a crime, a mistake,” are words often attributed to Talleyrand, Napoleon’s chief diplomat. Trump should not stumble from the everyday outrages that are his political staple into catastrophic error in matters of war and peace.
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