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No-deal Brexit: What you need to know | |
(about 20 hours later) | |
The possibility of a no-deal Brexit is very much alive, as Tory leadership contenders jostle to take over from Theresa May as prime minister. | The possibility of a no-deal Brexit is very much alive, as Tory leadership contenders jostle to take over from Theresa May as prime minister. |
But what does the term "no deal" really mean? | But what does the term "no deal" really mean? |
What is a no-deal Brexit? | What is a no-deal Brexit? |
This means the UK would immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process. | This means the UK would immediately leave the European Union (EU) with no agreement about the "divorce" process. |
Overnight, the UK would leave the single market and customs union - arrangements designed to help trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs (taxes on imports). | Overnight, the UK would leave the single market and customs union - arrangements designed to help trade between EU members by eliminating checks and tariffs (taxes on imports). |
No deal also means immediately leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice and Europol, its law enforcement body. | No deal also means immediately leaving EU institutions such as the European Court of Justice and Europol, its law enforcement body. |
And the UK would no longer contribute to the EU budget - currently about £9bn a year. | And the UK would no longer contribute to the EU budget - currently about £9bn a year. |
Under Theresa May's deal - which was voted down three times by Parliament - the UK would have entered a 21-month transition period. | Under Theresa May's deal - which was voted down three times by Parliament - the UK would have entered a 21-month transition period. |
This would have provided some breathing space, maintaining much of the status quo, while the two sides tried to negotiate a trade deal. | This would have provided some breathing space, maintaining much of the status quo, while the two sides tried to negotiate a trade deal. |
How could it happen? | How could it happen? |
After Theresa May's deal was defeated, the Brexit deadline was extended to 31 October. | After Theresa May's deal was defeated, the Brexit deadline was extended to 31 October. |
If nothing else happens, a no-deal Brexit will happen then. | If nothing else happens, a no-deal Brexit will happen then. |
To avoid a no-deal Brexit on this date, the UK government must pass a Brexit divorce plan into law, obtain another extension from the EU, or cancel Brexit. | To avoid a no-deal Brexit on this date, the UK government must pass a Brexit divorce plan into law, obtain another extension from the EU, or cancel Brexit. |
Many politicians are against no deal. | Many politicians are against no deal. |
They say it would damage the economy and lead to border posts between Northern Ireland and the Republic. | They say it would damage the economy and lead to border posts between Northern Ireland and the Republic. |
But some politicians support no deal and say disruption could be quickly overcome. | But some politicians support no deal and say disruption could be quickly overcome. |
What would it mean for trade? | What would it mean for trade? |
Under a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to bring in a UK-EU trade deal. | Under a no-deal Brexit, there would be no time to bring in a UK-EU trade deal. |
Trade would initially have to be on terms set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), an agency with 162 member countries. | Trade would initially have to be on terms set by the World Trade Organization (WTO), an agency with 162 member countries. |
If this happens, tariffs - taxes on imports - will apply to most goods UK businesses send to the EU. | If this happens, tariffs - taxes on imports - will apply to most goods UK businesses send to the EU. |
Some companies worry that could make their goods less competitive. | Some companies worry that could make their goods less competitive. |
The UK government has already said most tariffs will be abolished for EU goods coming to the UK, if there is no deal. | The UK government has already said most tariffs will be abolished for EU goods coming to the UK, if there is no deal. |
But the EU doesn't have to do the same. | But the EU doesn't have to do the same. |
Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports, such as Dover. | Trading on WTO terms would also mean border checks for goods, which could cause bottlenecks at ports, such as Dover. |
What about the Irish border? | What about the Irish border? |
No-one really knows what will happen at the Irish border under no deal. | No-one really knows what will happen at the Irish border under no deal. |
The "backstop" - the "insurance policy" in Theresa May's deal to stop border posts on the Irish border - would no longer exist. | The "backstop" - the "insurance policy" in Theresa May's deal to stop border posts on the Irish border - would no longer exist. |
No-deal supporters say technological solutions could maintain an invisible border. | No-deal supporters say technological solutions could maintain an invisible border. |
But EU law says border checks would still be needed on goods such as food and chemicals. | But EU law says border checks would still be needed on goods such as food and chemicals. |
However, neither the UK or Irish governments have so far said they would be willing to install border posts. | However, neither the UK or Irish governments have so far said they would be willing to install border posts. |
What about the 'divorce bill'? | What about the 'divorce bill'? |
No-deal supporters say the UK could avoid paying the divorce settlement - widely thought to be £39bn - agreed by Theresa May's government. | No-deal supporters say the UK could avoid paying the divorce settlement - widely thought to be £39bn - agreed by Theresa May's government. |
But opinion is split on what happens if the UK refuses to pay and there's a possibility the UK could end up in an international tribunal. | But opinion is split on what happens if the UK refuses to pay and there's a possibility the UK could end up in an international tribunal. |
Even if there were no legal consequences, refusing to pay could mean political fallout - lessening the UK's chances of securing an EU trade deal in the future. | Even if there were no legal consequences, refusing to pay could mean political fallout - lessening the UK's chances of securing an EU trade deal in the future. |
What does it mean for individuals? | What does it mean for individuals? |
If a no deal disrupted cross-Channel trade, some food prices could rise - a possibility highlighted by a government assessment. | If a no deal disrupted cross-Channel trade, some food prices could rise - a possibility highlighted by a government assessment. |
EU citizens in the UK can apply for settled status, allowing them to remain even if there is a no deal. | EU citizens in the UK can apply for settled status, allowing them to remain even if there is a no deal. |
UK expats in the EU are advised to register as residents of the country they live in, although no deal could make moving across borders more difficult. | UK expats in the EU are advised to register as residents of the country they live in, although no deal could make moving across borders more difficult. |
Mobile phone roaming charges could return - although some operators have already ruled this out. | Mobile phone roaming charges could return - although some operators have already ruled this out. |
Travelling with pets will become more complicated and expensive. | Travelling with pets will become more complicated and expensive. |
And European Health Insurance Cards (EHIC) would be invalid after a no-deal Brexit. | And European Health Insurance Cards (EHIC) would be invalid after a no-deal Brexit. |
Are preparations under way? | Are preparations under way? |
The government is looking at what might happen in a worst-case no-deal scenario. This includes: | The government is looking at what might happen in a worst-case no-deal scenario. This includes: |
Businesses have been encouraged to prepare by stockpiling in case supplies are disrupted. | Businesses have been encouraged to prepare by stockpiling in case supplies are disrupted. |
Supporters of no deal say some of the risks have been exaggerated and that previous warnings have proven unfounded. | Supporters of no deal say some of the risks have been exaggerated and that previous warnings have proven unfounded. |
Read more from Reality Check | Read more from Reality Check |
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