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Brexit: Where do Conservative leadership candidates stand? Brexit: What are Johnson and Hunt's plans?
(14 days later)
Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will go head-to-head in the contest to replace Theresa May as prime minister and Conservative Party leader. Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt have been outlining their Brexit plans as they campaign for the votes of 160,000 Conservative Party members who will decide which of them succeeds Theresa May as prime minister and Conservative Party leader.
Each will now try to convince the 160,000 Conservative Party members to vote for them. They have been explaining what changes they want to make to Mrs May's Withdrawal Agreement, how they plan to deliver them before the Brexit deadline of 31 October and their views on leaving without a deal.
One of the biggest issues will be Brexit: where they stand, how they plan to deliver it and whether that will be by the deadline of 31 October. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is the "divorce deal" negotiated by the UK government and the European Union (EU). As part of it, the UK agreed to pay the EU a "divorce bill" (estimated at £39 billion), guarantee EU citizens' rights and sign up to the Irish backstop - an insurance policy designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Jeremy Hunt The deal allowed for a transition period after Brexit, during which things like UK/EU trade would effectively stay the same, while both sides worked out their future relationship. But the Withdrawal Agreement was rejected three times by MPs - leading to Mrs May's downfall.
The foreign secretary says there is a prospect of doing a better deal with the EU. He is in favour of changes to the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May and he thinks it is possible to get them made by 31 October. So what would the two candidates do differently - and what obstacles might they face?
He wants changes to the Irish backstop - that's the insurance policy, agreed by the UK and the EU, to avoid a hard Irish border (a border with checks and infrastructure).
After Brexit, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could be in different customs and regulatory regimes, which could mean products being checked at the border.
To avoid this, the backstop would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU (until both sides reached a trade agreement that would avoid a hard border) - but this is controversial as it would prevent the UK from doing its own trade deals.
Mr Hunt says he has had "conversations with European leaders" who "understand that the backstop will not get through parliament, they may not have understood that before".
He proposes sending a new negotiating team team to Brussels, which would include representatives of the European Research Group (the group of Conservative MPs who support harder forms of Brexit) and members of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party.
The foreign secretary says if the only way to leave the EU was with no deal then he would do that but it is not his "preferred option".
Potential obstacles: The conclusions of the EU when it decided the UK could delay leaving until the end of October clearly state: "The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the withdrawal agreement." The withdrawal agreement is the legally binding part of the divorce deal, agreed by Theresa May and the EU, which contains the Irish backstop plan.
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
The former foreign secretary wants to remove the Irish backstop plan from the Withdrawal Agreement but he has said the UK will leave on 31 October "deal or no deal". The former foreign secretary has pledged that the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, "do or die". He has called the Withdrawal Agreement "dead" but says he would "take the bits that are serviceable and get them done" - such as guaranteeing the rights of 3.2 million EU citizens in the UK. He would try to get a deal by 31 October but if that wasn't possible, then the UK would leave on "WTO terms" - effectively a no-deal Brexit.
Mr Johnson says the "way to get a good deal is to prepare for no deal". Irish border
But he also says a no-deal exit would cause "some disruption". Mr Johnson says this should be tackled "on the other side of 31 October" during what he's calling an "implementation" period. After Brexit, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland could be in different customs and regulatory regimes, which might mean products being checked at the border. To avoid border posts (which some believe could threaten the peace process), Mrs May and the EU agreed on the backstop - keeping both sides in a customs union. This proved controversial because it would stop the UK doing its own trade deals.
Mr Johnson suggested the solution to the current deadlock would be to replace the Irish backstop with "alternative arrangements" to avoid a hard border, so as to facilitate a "managed exit" from the EU. Obstacle: The President of the European Council Donald Tusk has said "the Withdrawal Agreement is not open for renegotiation". The backstop is part of the Withdrawal Agreement, which is legally binding. It is not clear what Mr Johnson means by an "implementation" period. Mrs May's deal allows for an implementation period (the EU calls it a transition period) for a number of years. But the transition period is part of the Withdrawal Agreement and Mr Johnson has declared that agreement "dead".
He has also said he would withhold the £39bn "divorce" payment the UK is due to give the EU (this was negotiated as part of Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement). Mr Johnson said the money would be retained until there was "greater clarity about the way forward". Irish backstop
Potential obstacles: A representative of the head of the European Council said at the end of January: "The backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement, and the withdrawal agreement is not open for re-negotiation." Preparing for no deal didn't enable Theresa May to get the changes she wanted to the withdrawal agreement and it's not clear how Mr Johnson can be confident of greater success. The "divorce bill" is also part of the Withdrawal Agreement, and it's highly likely the EU would insist on the UK meeting its financial obligations before agreeing to any other deal. Refusal to do so would sour relations and could even end up in court. Boris Johnson wants to ditch the Irish backstop - he's called it "a prison". He has said there are "abundant, abundant technical fixes" to avoid checks at the border. He concedes that there is "no single magic bullet" but points to a "wealth of solutions" instead.
Obstacle: The UK and the EU have previously looked for technological solutions to the Irish border without success. The EU deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand, said in January: "We looked at every border on this Earth, every border the EU has with a third country - there's simply no way you can do away with checks and controls." There are "alternative arrangements" which could help: trusted trader schemes (where businesses are certified to make sure they meet certain standards) and ways of making customs declarations away from the border, but they wouldn't eliminate the need for checks altogether. After Brexit, the EU would still require inspections of things like animal and plant products entering its Single Market, and the new entry point to that market would be at the Irish border.
£39 billion
Boris Johnson has said he would withhold the £39 billion the UK has agreed to pay the EU and use it as a negotiating "tool" to get a better deal. Settling the UK's financial obligations (which include contributions to the EU budget and funding things like EU staff pensions) was agreed by Theresa May as part of the Withdrawal Agreement.
Obstacle: The EU has said it will not start future trade talks until the issue of money (along with citizens' rights and the Irish border) is settled. Refusing to pay would almost certainly sour relations between the two, and could lead to a legal challenge from the EU.
No deal
Boris Johnson says the UK should prepare "confidently and seriously" for a no-deal Brexit but believes the chances of it happening are "one million to one against". He says he would mitigate the effects of no-deal on the UK economy (which he admits would cause "disruption") by relying on a piece of trade law known as Article 24. He says this would allow the UK and the EU to have zero tariffs (taxes on imports) on trade while the two sides negotiated a trade deal. This would, in theory, help keep trade flowing and would stop the EU imposing tariffs on goods being imported from the UK (cars, for example, are subject to a 10% import tax from non-EU countries, and on agricultural produce it's even higher).
Obstacle: Boris Johnson is wrong to say Article 24 would allow for a zero tariff "standstill" with the EU, if there's no deal. To use this rule, the UK would need a trade agreement "in principle" with the EU, and leaving without a deal would imply there was no agreement. This has been pointed out by the EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, the Bank of England governor Mark Carney and fellow Brexiteer (and Jeremy Hunt supporter) Liam Fox, the International Trade Secretary. Mr Johnson has since conceded that both sides need to agree but insists it is still an option.
Jeremy Hunt
The foreign secretary says there is a prospect of doing a better deal with the EU. He is in favour of changes to the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May, and he thinks it is possible to get them made by 31 October. If he thinks there is a prospect of getting a deal then he is prepared to delay Brexit beyond that date. If not, he would be prepared to leave without a deal but with "a heavy heart".
Irish backstop
Mr Hunt says his aim "would be changing the backstop with some guarantees that we're not going to have a hard border on the island of Ireland for completely obvious reasons."
Obstacle: The conclusions of the EU when it decided the UK could delay leaving until the end of October, clearly state: "The European Council reiterates that there can be no opening of the withdrawal agreement." The withdrawal agreement is the legally binding part of the divorce deal, agreed by Theresa May and the EU, which contains the Irish backstop plan.
Irish border
Mr Hunt says he will pursue "a technology-led solution" to the Irish border. He says the technology "is ready" but "the EU have not wanted to accept this kind of solution because the hope is that we might stay in this thing called the Customs Union where we have to stick to [its] tariffs". The Customs Union makes trade between EU member states easier, with no customs checks or charges on goods when they cross borders. But if the UK stayed in this kind of system after Brexit, it wouldn't be able to strike its own trade deals around the world.
Obstacle: As already stated, the UK and the EU have previously looked for technological solutions to the Irish border without success. The EU deputy chief negotiator, Sabine Weyand has said she can't foresee a technological solution "in the next few years". That doesn't rule out a future fix, but it challenges Mr Hunt's view that existing technology would allow him to secure changes to the backstop by 31 October.
Negotiations:
Mr Hunt has emphasised his negotiating skills: "I'm an entrepreneur by background, I've done negotiations all my life inside government, outside government". He says the key to securing a better deal "is to put together a negotiating team for Brexit that will demonstrate to the EU that we can deliver Parliament. So what I would do differently to what we've had before is I would have the DUP in my negotiating team, I'd have the ERG who are the Brexit purists, I'd have the Scottish and Welsh Conservatives."
Obstacle: If those members of the negotiating team could agree what sort of deal they want and then negotiate it with the EU, it still would not guarantee getting the agreement through Parliament. Also, just having Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) on the negotiating team will not help with future talks with nationalists in Northern Ireland over the backstop. Sinn Fein MP Chris Hazzard described the idea as "ludicrous, and insulting to the electorate in the north".
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