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| What to Watch For in the European Parliament Election Results | What to Watch For in the European Parliament Election Results |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| BRUSSELS — With more than 400 million Europeans across the 28 countries of the European Union entitled to vote in the European Parliament elections that end on Sunday, the poll is, next to India, the largest democratic exercise in the world. | BRUSSELS — With more than 400 million Europeans across the 28 countries of the European Union entitled to vote in the European Parliament elections that end on Sunday, the poll is, next to India, the largest democratic exercise in the world. |
| But since these elections began 40 years ago, when the bloc was only 15 countries, turnout to vote for the Parliament — the bloc’s only directly elected branch — has decreased every five years. | But since these elections began 40 years ago, when the bloc was only 15 countries, turnout to vote for the Parliament — the bloc’s only directly elected branch — has decreased every five years. |
| So the first thing to watch for is turnout. Will it decline below the 42.6 percent of 2014, or will Europeans respond to calls from both populists and mainstream politicians who suggest that this election is important for the future of Europe? | So the first thing to watch for is turnout. Will it decline below the 42.6 percent of 2014, or will Europeans respond to calls from both populists and mainstream politicians who suggest that this election is important for the future of Europe? |
| With much attention on how the continent’s various strands of populists will do, another crucial question is whether the populist surge will produce a counterreaction among voters who support the European Union but are traditionally more apathetic. | With much attention on how the continent’s various strands of populists will do, another crucial question is whether the populist surge will produce a counterreaction among voters who support the European Union but are traditionally more apathetic. |
| Marietje Schaake, a liberal Dutch lawmaker who is not running for re-election, said the vote was “between the builders and the breakers.” The breakers have more passion; will the builders and the pro-Europeans have come out to vote? | Marietje Schaake, a liberal Dutch lawmaker who is not running for re-election, said the vote was “between the builders and the breakers.” The breakers have more passion; will the builders and the pro-Europeans have come out to vote? |
| Results for all 28 states will be released late Sunday after the last polls close. Here are some of the main issues at play. | Results for all 28 states will be released late Sunday after the last polls close. Here are some of the main issues at play. |
| There are varying strains of populists in Europe, and they do not all agree with one another. | There are varying strains of populists in Europe, and they do not all agree with one another. |
| But they are united for the most part in opposing immigration, strengthening Europe’s borders, hammering “the elites” and increasing the power of national governments against “Brussels,” a generic word for the European Union’s technocratic bureaucracy. | But they are united for the most part in opposing immigration, strengthening Europe’s borders, hammering “the elites” and increasing the power of national governments against “Brussels,” a generic word for the European Union’s technocratic bureaucracy. |
| [In Parliament Elections, Populists Seek to Break the E.U. From Within] | |
| The populists as an unruly collective are making most of the noise, led by the rollicking Italian deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini of the right-wing League. Mr. Salvini has campaigned hard, and has pulled other far-right leaders into some rallies in the hopes of creating a more coherent transnational bloc in the European Parliament. | The populists as an unruly collective are making most of the noise, led by the rollicking Italian deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini of the right-wing League. Mr. Salvini has campaigned hard, and has pulled other far-right leaders into some rallies in the hopes of creating a more coherent transnational bloc in the European Parliament. |
| He has had some success, but it is hard to create an “internationale of nationalists,” especially since, just to pick one example, he is sympathetic to and supportive of Russia, while Polish populists of the governing Law and Justice party are viscerally anti-Russian. | He has had some success, but it is hard to create an “internationale of nationalists,” especially since, just to pick one example, he is sympathetic to and supportive of Russia, while Polish populists of the governing Law and Justice party are viscerally anti-Russian. |
| They are so anti-Russian that Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the effective head of Law and Justice, said last week that Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader in France, was “obviously linked to Moscow and receives its support.” Given its size, Poland has a significant number of seats, but the Polish populists will have difficulty working with Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Salvini. | They are so anti-Russian that Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the effective head of Law and Justice, said last week that Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader in France, was “obviously linked to Moscow and receives its support.” Given its size, Poland has a significant number of seats, but the Polish populists will have difficulty working with Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Salvini. |
| The center-right and center-left groups of parties, which together had long created a working majority in the Parliament, are both expected to lose seats. | The center-right and center-left groups of parties, which together had long created a working majority in the Parliament, are both expected to lose seats. |
| Populists and euroskeptics may win as many as 180 of the 751 seats, enough to create lots of trouble. While most of those elected will be more traditional pro-Europeans, the old working majority is expected to disappear. | Populists and euroskeptics may win as many as 180 of the 751 seats, enough to create lots of trouble. While most of those elected will be more traditional pro-Europeans, the old working majority is expected to disappear. |
| Those parties will have to seek alliances with liberal and centrist parties, perhaps including the Greens group and La République en Marche, the party of President Emmanuel Macron of France, to try to defeat blocking tactics by euroskeptic and populist members. | Those parties will have to seek alliances with liberal and centrist parties, perhaps including the Greens group and La République en Marche, the party of President Emmanuel Macron of France, to try to defeat blocking tactics by euroskeptic and populist members. |
| The next president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, is selected by the leaders of member governments, but that choice must be approved by Parliament. | The next president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, is selected by the leaders of member governments, but that choice must be approved by Parliament. |
| In 2014, the bloc experimented with having “leading candidates” from each parliamentary group, and giving the job to the candidate of the largest party. That was Jean-Claude Juncker from the center-right European People’s Party. | In 2014, the bloc experimented with having “leading candidates” from each parliamentary group, and giving the job to the candidate of the largest party. That was Jean-Claude Juncker from the center-right European People’s Party. |
| But no one is happy with the system, and some, like Mr. Macron, want to scrap it. That may be easier this year, since the European People’s Party is expected to lose seats and its leading candidate, Manfred Weber, has no executive experience. | But no one is happy with the system, and some, like Mr. Macron, want to scrap it. That may be easier this year, since the European People’s Party is expected to lose seats and its leading candidate, Manfred Weber, has no executive experience. |
| There will be lots of horse-trading in the next weeks and months about who gets which top jobs — which involves balancing among big states and small; north and south; conservative, centrist and socialist; and male and female. And it is up to Parliament to approve all of the various new commissioners. | There will be lots of horse-trading in the next weeks and months about who gets which top jobs — which involves balancing among big states and small; north and south; conservative, centrist and socialist; and male and female. And it is up to Parliament to approve all of the various new commissioners. |
| These elections are national, and most people vote on national issues, despite Europe’s major jobs being at stake. Much like midterm elections in the United States, these elections are an opportunity for protest votes against the government of the day. | These elections are national, and most people vote on national issues, despite Europe’s major jobs being at stake. Much like midterm elections in the United States, these elections are an opportunity for protest votes against the government of the day. |
| Significant national outcomes include France, where Mr. Macron has a lot riding on beating Ms. Le Pen’s far-right party, the former National Front that has been rebranded as the National Rally. To lose to her, even if it has no direct impact at home, would damage his political clout and credibility, and undermine his standing in European disputes. | Significant national outcomes include France, where Mr. Macron has a lot riding on beating Ms. Le Pen’s far-right party, the former National Front that has been rebranded as the National Rally. To lose to her, even if it has no direct impact at home, would damage his political clout and credibility, and undermine his standing in European disputes. |
| Mr. Macron is a big target for the populists, because he has gone out of his way to deride them and set himself up as the defender of Europe and increased federalism against those who want to disrupt it. | Mr. Macron is a big target for the populists, because he has gone out of his way to deride them and set himself up as the defender of Europe and increased federalism against those who want to disrupt it. |
| Italy is also important. Mr. Salvini will do well, but how well? If his League significantly outscores his coalition partner, the populist left-wing Five Star Movement, he may decide to break the coalition and call new elections to try to become prime minister. | Italy is also important. Mr. Salvini will do well, but how well? If his League significantly outscores his coalition partner, the populist left-wing Five Star Movement, he may decide to break the coalition and call new elections to try to become prime minister. |
| Polls indicate that Italians may be getting tired of Mr. Salvini, but how tired? | Polls indicate that Italians may be getting tired of Mr. Salvini, but how tired? |
| In Poland, too, these elections will be seen as a marker on the performance of Law and Justice, which is sharply criticized by Brussels for its Hungary-like efforts to distort and control the judicial system. | In Poland, too, these elections will be seen as a marker on the performance of Law and Justice, which is sharply criticized by Brussels for its Hungary-like efforts to distort and control the judicial system. |
| Law and Justice, which strongly favors European membership but wants less interference from Brussels, faces a collection of opposition parties calling itself the European Coalition. Poland has national elections this autumn, probably in October, and this vote will be considered a guide to that more important one. | Law and Justice, which strongly favors European membership but wants less interference from Brussels, faces a collection of opposition parties calling itself the European Coalition. Poland has national elections this autumn, probably in October, and this vote will be considered a guide to that more important one. |
| The German vote will be seen as a judgment on the floundering center-left Social Democratic Party, the far-right Alternative for Germany and on the new leader of the Christian Democrats, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who hopes to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel. | The German vote will be seen as a judgment on the floundering center-left Social Democratic Party, the far-right Alternative for Germany and on the new leader of the Christian Democrats, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who hopes to succeed Chancellor Angela Merkel. |
| Austria will also be interesting, since this election will be the first chance for voters to judge the breakup of the country’s governing coalition of the center right and far right, after the resignation of far-right Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache and his colleagues over a video that raised questions over Russian influence on their party. Will Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and his People’s Party be rewarded or punished? | Austria will also be interesting, since this election will be the first chance for voters to judge the breakup of the country’s governing coalition of the center right and far right, after the resignation of far-right Vice Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache and his colleagues over a video that raised questions over Russian influence on their party. Will Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and his People’s Party be rewarded or punished? |
| Then there is Britain, which voted to leave the European Union three years ago, but finds itself voting for a European Parliament anyway, since it has not managed to agree on how to make Brexit work. | Then there is Britain, which voted to leave the European Union three years ago, but finds itself voting for a European Parliament anyway, since it has not managed to agree on how to make Brexit work. |
| With Prime Minister Theresa May having announced her resignation on Friday, these European elections are both a joke and highly serious. They represent the return to electoral life of Nigel Farage, the former U.K. Independence Party leader whose new Brexit Party is expected to win, while the Conservatives and Labour are expected to do badly. | With Prime Minister Theresa May having announced her resignation on Friday, these European elections are both a joke and highly serious. They represent the return to electoral life of Nigel Farage, the former U.K. Independence Party leader whose new Brexit Party is expected to win, while the Conservatives and Labour are expected to do badly. |
| That may affect the next British national election, let alone whom the Conservative Party decides to name as the next prime minister. | That may affect the next British national election, let alone whom the Conservative Party decides to name as the next prime minister. |
| That person is almost sure to be in favor of Britain’s leaving the European Union, unlike Mrs. May, who voted originally to remain in the bloc and then, as prime minister, could not find a Brexit formula that could win the support of her own party, let alone a majority in Parliament. | That person is almost sure to be in favor of Britain’s leaving the European Union, unlike Mrs. May, who voted originally to remain in the bloc and then, as prime minister, could not find a Brexit formula that could win the support of her own party, let alone a majority in Parliament. |