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Narendra Modi, India’s ‘Watchman,’ Heads for Historic Election Victory Narendra Modi, India’s ‘Watchman,’ Wins Historic Election
(about 4 hours later)
NEW DELHI — Narendra Modi, the most dominating and divisive prime minister India has produced in decades, powered his way Thursday toward this nation’s biggest re-election win in decades. NEW DELHI — He called himself India’s watchman, even as minorities said they felt unsafe under his gaze. He boasted of his humble origins while doing favors for billionaires. He spoke the language of business, yet could not deliver enough jobs to Indians aspiring to a better life.
His brand of brawny Hindu nationalism and pro-business policies seem to have played stunningly well, despite concerns that he had not delivered on promises to create jobs. Despite those contradictions, Narendra Modi, India’s incumbent prime minister, led his party to a stunning election victory on Thursday, eviscerating the opposition and giving Hindu nationalists the strongest hand they have ever held in modern Indian history.
With most of the votes counted, Mr. Modi was on track to be the first Indian prime minister to lead his party to majorities in Parliament in back-to-back elections in nearly 50 years. His mix of brawny Hindu nationalism, populist humility and grand gestures for the poor — like building tens of millions of new toilets — helped him become the first prime minister in nearly 50 years to win a majority in successive parliamentary elections.
“This is the victory of the mother who was longing for a toilet,” Mr. Modi said in a speech to supporters on Thursday night. “This victory is of the farmers who sweat to fill the stomachs of others.”
[Read updates about the overwhelming victory for Mr. Modi and the B.J.P.][Read updates about the overwhelming victory for Mr. Modi and the B.J.P.]
Many Indians see Mr. Modi, 68, as a nationalist icon. He has confronted China, nearly gone to war with Pakistan and brought India closer to the United States. He calls himself India’s chowkidar — watchman — and his success mirrors the rise of right-leaning populist figures around the world. Many Indians see Mr. Modi, 68, as a nationalist icon. He stood up to China, nearly went to war with Pakistan and brought India closer to the United States. During the campaign, he described himself as the chowkidar — the watchman. And many Indians felt he was the best leader to raise India’s standing in the world.
While he has built a reputation as a crusader who speaks the common people’s language, his detractors say his policies are pulling India’s delicate social fabric apart. His commitment to giving more power to the country’s Hindu majority has struck fear in the Muslim minority and left the country increasingly polarized. His success mirrors the rise of right-leaning populist figures around the world. But detractors say his commitment to giving more power to the country’s Hindu majority has struck fear in the Muslim minority and is pulling the country’s delicate social fabric apart.
Under him, mob lynchings have shot up, Muslim representation in Parliament has dropped to its lowest level in decades, and right-wing Hindus have felt emboldened to push an extreme agenda, including lionizing the man who shot to death the independence hero Mohandas K. Gandhi. Under him, mob lynchings have shot up, Muslim representation in Parliament has dropped to its lowest level in decades, and right-wing Hindus have felt emboldened to push an extreme agenda, including lionizing the man who fatally shot the independence hero Mohandas K. Gandhi.
But in Indian politics today, there is no other figure who can approach Mr. Modi’s aura. His Bharatiya Janata Party, by far India’s richest and most aggressive, has built what critics call a personality cult around him, and in speeches he routinely refers to himself in the third person. Yet in Indian politics today, no other figure can approach Mr. Modi’s aura. Analysts call him “larger than life” and “a cinematic character.”
His Bharatiya Janata Party, by far India’s richest and most aggressive, has built a personality cult around him, and in speeches he refers to himself in the third person.
“Are you happy that Modi kills by entering homes?” he thundered at a recent rally, recalling the airstrike he ordered on Pakistan in February. “Doesn’t your chest puff out with pride?”“Are you happy that Modi kills by entering homes?” he thundered at a recent rally, recalling the airstrike he ordered on Pakistan in February. “Doesn’t your chest puff out with pride?”
The crowd cheered.The crowd cheered.
Political analysts call him “larger than life,” “a cinematic character,” and someone who displays an innate sense for “what people are looking for.”
“Modi has embedded himself in every Indian’s consciousness,” said Arati Jerath, a prominent newspaper columnist.“Modi has embedded himself in every Indian’s consciousness,” said Arati Jerath, a prominent newspaper columnist.
In contrast, Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition Congress party and the scion of a long political dynasty, is widely perceived, even by some supporters, as cultivating too gentle an image. And though his party cast itself as a unifying force, the results indicated that Congress, once dominant, had suffered a second consecutive disastrous loss. In contrast, Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition Indian National Congress party and the scion of a long political dynasty, is widely perceived as inexperienced and weak. In acknowledging his defeat, Mr. Gandhi said that the country was engaged in a long ideological battle, and “love never loses.”
The election turnout was one for the history books — the largest democratic exercise ever. In seven phases over 39 days, more than 600 million Indians cast ballots at a million polling stations, spread across densely populated megacities and far-flung villages, from high in the Himalayan mountains to tropical islands in the Andaman Sea. The election turnout was one for the history books — the largest democratic exercise ever. From April 11 to May 19, more than 600 million Indians cast ballots at a million polling stations from high in the Himalayas to the tropical islands in the Andaman Sea.
Experts say the force of Mr. Modi’s personality, with many Indians intensely for him or against him, drove turnout to 67 percent, the highest this nation has ever seen. Intense feelings about Mr. Modi, for or against, helped drive turnout to 67 percent, the highest ever.
Even some voters who are worried about the economy or don’t like the way Mr. Modi has stirred up communal divisions say they still see him as the best leader for India now. Even some voters who were worried about the economy or did not like the way Mr. Modi had stirred communal divisions said they still saw him as the best leader for India now.
“Farmers are in trouble,” said Vinay Tyagi, a wheat and sugar cane farmer in the swing state of Uttar Pradesh. “But we still voted for the B.J.P. because there was no alternative for us. The other candidates weren’t good.”“Farmers are in trouble,” said Vinay Tyagi, a wheat and sugar cane farmer in the swing state of Uttar Pradesh. “But we still voted for the B.J.P. because there was no alternative for us. The other candidates weren’t good.”
To keep his job, Mr. Modi campaigned relentlessly, holding 142 rallies and covering 65,000 miles. On the last night before voting ended, he meditated in a Himalayan cave in the same area where he had wandered more than 50 years earlier as a young man searching for purpose. To keep his job, Mr. Modi campaigned relentlessly, holding 142 rallies and covering 65,000 miles. On the night before voting ended, he meditated in a Himalayan cave in the same area where, more than 50 years earlier, he had wandered as a young man searching for purpose.
Mr. Modi will be the first two-time prime minister ever to come from a lower caste. He grew up in a small town north of Ahmedabad, in the state of Gujarat. This has been a powerful part of his narrative; he calls himself a lowly chaiwalla, a tea-seller, a clear jab at India’s elite. Mr. Modi will be the first two-time prime minister ever to come from a lower caste. He grew up in a small town north of Ahmedabad, in the state of Gujarat. This has been a powerful part of his narrative: He calls himself a lowly chaiwalla, a tea-seller, a clear jab at India’s elite.
At age 8, he became part of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, known as the R.S.S., a right-wing Hindu group that would play a huge role in his life. The R.S.S. is widely seen as a service organization. But its members are the foot soldiers of the Hindu nationalist movement, and some of its critics have accused it of being fascist — in the 1930s the group’s members were inspired by Mussolini’s Italy. At age 8, he became part of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a right-wing Hindu group that would play a huge role in his life. Its members are the foot soldiers of the Hindu nationalist movement, and some critics have accused it of embracing fascism — in the 1930s, the group’s members were inspired by Mussolini’s Italy.
In school, Mr. Modi was known as an average student, but he demonstrated a talent for theater and debating. His forcefulness propelled him up the R.S.S. ranks. In school, Mr. Modi was known as an average student, but he demonstrated a talent for theater and debating.
When he was around 18, he took a two-year sojourn and drifted around the Himalayas, contemplating a life as an ascetic priest. In a recent interview, he said that he had bathed in freezing rivers, hung around holy men and learned to “align himself with the rhythm of the universe.” When he was around 18, he went on his Himalayan sojourn, contemplating a life as an ascetic priest. In a recent interview, he said that he had bathed in freezing rivers, hung around holy men and learned to “align himself with the rhythm of the universe.”
He also deserted the young woman that his parents had arranged for him to marry when he was a teenager. Even now it is unclear if Mr. Modi ever lived with her. He also deserted the young woman whom his parents had arranged for him to marry. Even now it is unclear whether Mr. Modi ever lived with her.
He didn’t enter politics until much later in life. In his 20s and 30s, he was a preacher for the R.S.S. and then a worker for the B.J.P. Colleagues remember him as passionate, dedicated and efficient. In his 20s and 30s, he was a preacher for the R.S.S., and then a worker for the B.J.P. in Gujarat, where he oversaw the printing of banned pamphlets pushing Hindutva, the belief in the primacy of the Hindu religion and way of life. Analysts say he remains an “ultranationalist” at his core.
He oversaw the secret printing of banned pamphlets pushing Hindutva, the belief in the primacy of the Hindu religion and way of life. Analysts say he remains an “ultranationalist” at his core. “He is very divisive,” said Ms. Jerath, the newspaper columnist. “He believes in the politics of polarization: us against them, Hindus against Muslims, rich against poor, poor against rich.”
“He is very divisive,” said Mrs. Jerath, the newspaper columnist. “He believes in the politics of polarization: us against them, Hindus against Muslims, rich against poor, poor against rich.” A pivotal event came in February 2002, when Gujarat exploded in religious riots. Mr. Modi, then chief minister of the state, was blamed for not stopping the bloodshed, which left more than 1,000 people dead, most of them Muslim.
A defining moment came for him in February 2002, when the state of Gujarat exploded in religious riots. Mr. Modi, who was chief minister of the state, was blamed for not stopping the carnage, which included more than 1,000 deaths, most of them Muslim.
From then on, Mr. Modi would be known among the Hindu right as a hero. Many Muslims considered him a killer.From then on, Mr. Modi would be known among the Hindu right as a hero. Many Muslims considered him a killer.
But in the next few years, Mr. Modi deftly switched tack. He became a friend of free enterprise and helped attract thousands of manufacturing jobs to Gujarat. But in the next few years, Mr. Modi sought to cultivate a different reputation. He became a friend of free enterprise and helped attract thousands of manufacturing jobs to Gujarat.
Business people and middle class voters began to rally around him, seeing him as someone who could get results. At the same time, the dynastic Congress party, which led India for most of its history since independence from Britain, was collapsing, racked by infighting, corruption and the absence of an inspiring leader. Business people and middle-class voters began to rally around him, seeing him as someone who could get results. At the same time, the dynastic Congress party, which led India for most of its history since independence from Britain, was collapsing, plagued by scandals and the absence of an inspiring leader.
These two story lines converged in 2014, the first time Mr. Modi ran for prime minister. In 2014, the first time Mr. Modi ran for prime minister, he emphasized infrastructure, development and rooting out corruption. His B.J.P. won a landslide, and Congress suffered its biggest defeat — winning only 44 seats out of 543, the party’s worst showing in its 100-year-plus history.
He emphasized infrastructure, development and rooting out corruption. His B.J.P. won a landslide, and Congress suffered its biggest defeat — winning only 44 seats out of 543, the party’s worst showing in its 100-year-plus history. Once in office, Mr. Modi swiftly consolidated power, making big decisions within a small circle of advisers.
Once in office, Mr. Modi moved swiftly to consolidate power, sidelining ministries and making big decisions within a very small circle of advisers. He quickly announced a series of high-profile, symbolic programs. He quickly announced several high-profile social programs, including the building of 100 million new toilets, a goal his government has nearly reached. Many voters in this election cited the toilets — and the dignity they brought — as one reason for giving him their vote.
One was building 100 million new toilets, a goal his government has nearly reached and something that no other Indian prime minister had ever tackled as assiduously. Many voters in this election cited Mr. Modi’s toilet campaign, and its benefit for privacy, safety and sanitation, as one of the reasons they gave him their vote. But there were also troubling signs. Hindu nationalists, encouraged by the election of one of their own to the country’s highest office, began persecuting and even killing Muslims and low-caste Hindus.
But there were also troubling signs. Hindu nationalists, encouraged by the election of one of their own to the country’s highest office, began harassing Muslims and low-caste Hindus. Sectarian violence and deaths increased. Mr. Modi and his party appointed Hindu nationalists to key posts at universities and government agencies. They changed place names from Muslim to Hindu and rewrote children’s history books, purging entire sections on Muslim rulers.
Mr. Modi began appointing Hindu nationalists to key posts at universities, ministries and eventually, nonpartisan bodies like the central bank. Government agencies began to change place names from Muslim to Hindu and rewrite children’s history books, lopping out entire sections on Muslim rulers. In November 2016, Mr. Modi suddenly invalidated most of the nation’s currency in the name of fighting corruption. The move made it nearly impossible to use cash in a country that relied on it for nearly everything.
The honeymoon period ended in November 2016, when Mr. Modi suddenly invalidated most of the nation’s currency. The so-called demonetization, carried out in the name of fighting corruption, made it nearly impossible to use cash in a country that relied on it for buying everything from vegetables to a home. Seven months later, the government replaced a complex set of state taxes with a single national goods and services tax. While most economists say it was a sensible reform, the new system was so complicated that it caused chaos at millions of small businesses.
Seven months later, the government replaced a complex set of state taxes with a single national goods and services tax. While most economists say the move was a sensible long-term reform, the new system was so complicated that it caused chaos at millions of small and mid-sized businesses. The twin blows battered the economy and paralyzed job growth in a country where five million young people enter the work force every year. He was also criticized for signing a multibillion-dollar fighter jet deal with France that sent part of the work to an Indian billionaire with no experience.
The twin blows battered the economy and brought job growth to a standstill in a country where 5 million young people enter the work force every year. In the quarter that ended in December, the country’s economy grew 6.6 percent — enviable for many countries, but the slowest rate in five years. Still, supporters say that Mr. Modi cut bureaucracy for businesses, invested in major infrastructure like roads and tried to tackle some of India’s biggest problems, such as a lack of health care for the poor.
Among the most disappointed with Mr. Modi’s economic promises were India’s farmers. Half of India relies on agriculture and protests erupted around the country, with some farmers dumping nearly worthless milk into the streets. As the campaign began, many analysts predicted that Mr. Modi would lose support over India’s economic challenges.
Still, Mr. Modi continued to cut red tape for businesses, invest in major infrastructure like roads and tackle some of India’s biggest problems. His most ambitious welfare program, a new attempt at universal health care for the poor, was nicknamed Modicare. Everything changed on Feb. 14, when a suicide bomber blew up a bus of paramilitary forces in Pulwama in the state of Kashmir, which both India and Pakistan claim. Jingoism surged, and so did Mr. Modi’s approval ratings. He campaigned hard on national security, and voters seemed to respond.
As the campaign began, many predicted that the country’s economic challenges would make it difficult for Mr. Modi and the B.J.P. to keep control of Parliament. “The scale of the win is remarkable,’’ said Menaka Guruswamy, a senior lawyer in India’s Supreme Court and lecturer at Columbia Law School.
But everything changed on Feb. 14, when a suicide bomber blew up a bus of paramilitary forces in Pulwama in the state of Kashmir, which both India and Pakistan claim as their own. Jingoism surged, and so did Mr. Modi’s approval ratings. He campaigned hard on national security, and voters seemed to respond to that and his tilt back toward Hindu nationalism. But she added: “I don’t know of a word that begins to capture how deeply divided we are at this point.’’
“The scale of the win is remarkable,’’ said Menaka Guruswamy, a senior lawyer in India’s Supreme Court and lecturer at Columbia Law School. But she added:
“I don’t know of a word that begins to capture how deeply divided we are at this point.’’