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| Australia 2019 Election Live Results: Morrison Appears Bound for Surprise Victory | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Scott Morrison, Australia’s conservative prime minister, won his first full term in office on Saturday, according to projections from Australia’s national broadcaster. | Scott Morrison, Australia’s conservative prime minister, won his first full term in office on Saturday, according to projections from Australia’s national broadcaster. |
| If the results hold, they would confound expectations that the country’s voters were ready for a change in course after six years of tumultuous leadership under his party. The polls had pointed to a loss for Mr. Morrison’s right-leaning coalition for months. | If the results hold, they would confound expectations that the country’s voters were ready for a change in course after six years of tumultuous leadership under his party. The polls had pointed to a loss for Mr. Morrison’s right-leaning coalition for months. |
| The apparent surprise was the latest swell in a wave of populist fervor that swept President Trump into office and set Britain on a path out of the European Union. | The apparent surprise was the latest swell in a wave of populist fervor that swept President Trump into office and set Britain on a path out of the European Union. |
| This election presented Australia, a vital American ally in the Asia-Pacific, with a crucial question: Would it remain on a rightward path and stick with a political coalition that promised economic stability and jobs, or choose change and the promise of greater action on climate change and income inequality? | This election presented Australia, a vital American ally in the Asia-Pacific, with a crucial question: Would it remain on a rightward path and stick with a political coalition that promised economic stability and jobs, or choose change and the promise of greater action on climate change and income inequality? |
| “Australians are just deeply conservative — wherever possible, we cling to the status quo,” said Jill Sheppard, a lecturer in politics at the Australian National University. “While we want progress on certain issues, we don’t like major upheavals.” — Damien Cave | “Australians are just deeply conservative — wherever possible, we cling to the status quo,” said Jill Sheppard, a lecturer in politics at the Australian National University. “While we want progress on certain issues, we don’t like major upheavals.” — Damien Cave |
| [Want Australia news in your inbox? Sign up for the weekly Australia Letter.] | [Want Australia news in your inbox? Sign up for the weekly Australia Letter.] |
| Early results coming out of Queensland showed a surge for the conservative coalition government. The opposition Labor Party, led by Bill Shorten, had been expected to pick up a half dozen seats in the northeastern state, which stretches from Brisbane to the tropics near the Great Barrier Reef, but it looks in increasing danger of losing those it currently holds. | Early results coming out of Queensland showed a surge for the conservative coalition government. The opposition Labor Party, led by Bill Shorten, had been expected to pick up a half dozen seats in the northeastern state, which stretches from Brisbane to the tropics near the Great Barrier Reef, but it looks in increasing danger of losing those it currently holds. |
| The seat of Herbert, currently held by Labor, appears shaky. It is home to the town of Townsville, which, if the controversial Adani coal mine is opened, would expect several thousand new jobs. Several other seats also showed large swings to candidates for the Liberal Party, the senior partner in the coalition, and to right-wing minor parties like the One Nation party led by Pauline Hanson. | The seat of Herbert, currently held by Labor, appears shaky. It is home to the town of Townsville, which, if the controversial Adani coal mine is opened, would expect several thousand new jobs. Several other seats also showed large swings to candidates for the Liberal Party, the senior partner in the coalition, and to right-wing minor parties like the One Nation party led by Pauline Hanson. |
| It’s put the entire result of the election in question, said Antony Green, the national broadcaster’s election expert. “If Labor doesn’t win this election,” he said, “they can look at their figures in Queensland and ask what went wrong in Queensland.” | It’s put the entire result of the election in question, said Antony Green, the national broadcaster’s election expert. “If Labor doesn’t win this election,” he said, “they can look at their figures in Queensland and ask what went wrong in Queensland.” |
| “The Australian electorate, not unlike internationally, is fragmenting,” said Paul Strangio, associate professor of politics and international relations at Monash University. “Ultimately,” he added, “Shorten’s unpopularity has been something of a millstone.” — Jamie Tarabay and Damien Cave | “The Australian electorate, not unlike internationally, is fragmenting,” said Paul Strangio, associate professor of politics and international relations at Monash University. “Ultimately,” he added, “Shorten’s unpopularity has been something of a millstone.” — Jamie Tarabay and Damien Cave |
| Tony Abbott, the former prime minister, lost the seat in Sydney’s northern beaches that he has held since 1994. | Tony Abbott, the former prime minister, lost the seat in Sydney’s northern beaches that he has held since 1994. |
| He was defeated by Zali Steggall, an independent candidate and a former Olympian who ran a vigorous campaign focused on the need to fight climate change. | He was defeated by Zali Steggall, an independent candidate and a former Olympian who ran a vigorous campaign focused on the need to fight climate change. |
| Mr. Abbott, an avowed skeptic on climate change and a conservative stalwart, was pushed out of the leadership by Malcolm Turnbull, only to then help oust Mr. Turnbull as prime minister last year in the party coup that made Scott Morrison prime minister. | Mr. Abbott, an avowed skeptic on climate change and a conservative stalwart, was pushed out of the leadership by Malcolm Turnbull, only to then help oust Mr. Turnbull as prime minister last year in the party coup that made Scott Morrison prime minister. |
| In a concession speech, he said he was proud of his time in office and predicted that the conservative Liberal National coalition would go on to victory on the strength of working-class voters outside the major cities. | In a concession speech, he said he was proud of his time in office and predicted that the conservative Liberal National coalition would go on to victory on the strength of working-class voters outside the major cities. |
| “There is something of a realignment of politics going on around this country,” he said. “In working seats we are doing so much better; in at least some of what might be called wealthy seats, we are doing it tough and the green left is doing it better.” | “There is something of a realignment of politics going on around this country,” he said. “In working seats we are doing so much better; in at least some of what might be called wealthy seats, we are doing it tough and the green left is doing it better.” |
| He said that he had known he faced a difficult contest but added: “I’d rather be a loser than a quitter.” | He said that he had known he faced a difficult contest but added: “I’d rather be a loser than a quitter.” |
| Mr. Abbott, who has long been a divisive figure, said his public life was not over. But his departure from Parliament is likely to make governing easier for whichever party wins control. — Damien Cave and Jamie Tarabay | Mr. Abbott, who has long been a divisive figure, said his public life was not over. But his departure from Parliament is likely to make governing easier for whichever party wins control. — Damien Cave and Jamie Tarabay |
| Two bellwether seats in Tasmania that swung to Labor in 2016 appear to have swung back into the Liberal camp. | Two bellwether seats in Tasmania that swung to Labor in 2016 appear to have swung back into the Liberal camp. |
| The districts of Bass and Braddon have changed hands between the major parties relentlessly — Bass has swung back and forth in seven of the last nine elections — and if the results hold for the Liberal Party, they would be important wins for the coalition led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. | The districts of Bass and Braddon have changed hands between the major parties relentlessly — Bass has swung back and forth in seven of the last nine elections — and if the results hold for the Liberal Party, they would be important wins for the coalition led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison. |
| “We’re not seeing Labor waltz into office tonight,” said the national broadcaster’s chief polling expert, Antony Green. — Jamie Tarabay | “We’re not seeing Labor waltz into office tonight,” said the national broadcaster’s chief polling expert, Antony Green. — Jamie Tarabay |
| The economy: Polls show that voters are most concerned about the rising cost of living, especially housing. Wages have been stagnant for years, even as the economy has grown. | The economy: Polls show that voters are most concerned about the rising cost of living, especially housing. Wages have been stagnant for years, even as the economy has grown. |
| Climate change: Australia is more vulnerable to climate change than any other developed country, but for more than a decade, Parliament has struggled to enact a comprehensive energy and emissions reduction plan. The conservative coalition has proposed a climate solutions fund to help farmers and businesses; the opposition has promised to reduce pollution and expand renewable energy. | Climate change: Australia is more vulnerable to climate change than any other developed country, but for more than a decade, Parliament has struggled to enact a comprehensive energy and emissions reduction plan. The conservative coalition has proposed a climate solutions fund to help farmers and businesses; the opposition has promised to reduce pollution and expand renewable energy. |
| Social safety net: Health care, pensions and other elements of Australia’s social safety net are also of major concern to voters. Cutbacks by the conservative government have led to questions about what to prioritize: benefits for older voters, who tend to vote Liberal, or younger voters, who tend to support Labor. — Damien Cave | Social safety net: Health care, pensions and other elements of Australia’s social safety net are also of major concern to voters. Cutbacks by the conservative government have led to questions about what to prioritize: benefits for older voters, who tend to vote Liberal, or younger voters, who tend to support Labor. — Damien Cave |
| Bill Shorten, the Labor Party leader, voted in his hometown, Melbourne, this morning, and answered questions on morning television. | Bill Shorten, the Labor Party leader, voted in his hometown, Melbourne, this morning, and answered questions on morning television. |
| He said he was “confident there is a mood to vote for real change,” and he highlighted the two issues he thought would turn the election in his favor: the economy and climate change. | He said he was “confident there is a mood to vote for real change,” and he highlighted the two issues he thought would turn the election in his favor: the economy and climate change. |
| “At the moment in Australia, the rich are getting richer, but the middle class are getting squeezed and those on fixed incomes are just falling behind,” he said. | “At the moment in Australia, the rich are getting richer, but the middle class are getting squeezed and those on fixed incomes are just falling behind,” he said. |
| “I have a different economic plan for Australia,” he continued. “My view is that if everyone, men and women, people in the bush, people in the city, the young and the old, all get an equal go, then what happens is — that’s a rising tide that lifts all boats.” | “I have a different economic plan for Australia,” he continued. “My view is that if everyone, men and women, people in the bush, people in the city, the young and the old, all get an equal go, then what happens is — that’s a rising tide that lifts all boats.” |
| He also said that “we’ve got to take action on climate change.” — Damien Cave | He also said that “we’ve got to take action on climate change.” — Damien Cave |
| Prime Minister Scott Morrison started the day campaigning in Tasmania, where a few close races could decide who wins the day, and he emphasized what his Liberal Party has been emphasizing since the campaign started: stability and economic management. The alternative, if the opposition wins, is chaos, he said. | Prime Minister Scott Morrison started the day campaigning in Tasmania, where a few close races could decide who wins the day, and he emphasized what his Liberal Party has been emphasizing since the campaign started: stability and economic management. The alternative, if the opposition wins, is chaos, he said. |
| “Australians take their decision and their choice very seriously,” Mr. Morrison said. “And at this election they do have a choice today. They have a choice between myself and Bill Shorten as prime minister. A government that knows how to manage money and a Labor Party that has never proven they know how to manage money.” | “Australians take their decision and their choice very seriously,” Mr. Morrison said. “And at this election they do have a choice today. They have a choice between myself and Bill Shorten as prime minister. A government that knows how to manage money and a Labor Party that has never proven they know how to manage money.” |
| Context: In the United States, a direct appeal to financial management might sound a little too close to Wall Street for mass appeal, but Australia has compulsory superannuation, which means all workers have retirement funds tied up in a public-private finance system. With the opposition calling for changes to tax breaks for retirees and housing investors, comments about money management are not just for the wealthy. — Damien Cave | Context: In the United States, a direct appeal to financial management might sound a little too close to Wall Street for mass appeal, but Australia has compulsory superannuation, which means all workers have retirement funds tied up in a public-private finance system. With the opposition calling for changes to tax breaks for retirees and housing investors, comments about money management are not just for the wealthy. — Damien Cave |
| On their ballot sheets voters saw candidates from a confounding number of minor parties with agendas, such as internet activism, vaccine opposition, marijuana legalization and even xenophobia. And some have a decent chance of getting into Parliament. | On their ballot sheets voters saw candidates from a confounding number of minor parties with agendas, such as internet activism, vaccine opposition, marijuana legalization and even xenophobia. And some have a decent chance of getting into Parliament. |
| Since 1918, the country has employed a preferential voting system: Voters rank the candidates they prefer from most to least, rather than simply checking a box for their first preference. | Since 1918, the country has employed a preferential voting system: Voters rank the candidates they prefer from most to least, rather than simply checking a box for their first preference. |
| Candidates must get more than 50 percent of the total vote to be elected to the House of Representatives, where the majority party forms a government. To achieve this, candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated and the votes on those ballots are redistributed according to preference, a process that is repeated until a winner is produced. | Candidates must get more than 50 percent of the total vote to be elected to the House of Representatives, where the majority party forms a government. To achieve this, candidates with the fewest votes are eliminated and the votes on those ballots are redistributed according to preference, a process that is repeated until a winner is produced. |
| In the Senate, candidates must receive a certain proportion of votes to be elected. | In the Senate, candidates must receive a certain proportion of votes to be elected. |
| The system is designed to make sure that votes are not wasted, but it has also given minor parties more footing, experts say. Some have struck back-room deals with major parties that agree to give them preference in their “how to vote” guides. | The system is designed to make sure that votes are not wasted, but it has also given minor parties more footing, experts say. Some have struck back-room deals with major parties that agree to give them preference in their “how to vote” guides. |
| While election analysts say that new rules adopted in 2016 may lead to a winnowing of these fringe players, some are still likely to be elected to the Senate through “protest” votes against the major parties. In the House of Representatives, the race seems likely to be close, meaning major parties are relying on their preference choices of minor groups to get them over the line. | While election analysts say that new rules adopted in 2016 may lead to a winnowing of these fringe players, some are still likely to be elected to the Senate through “protest” votes against the major parties. In the House of Representatives, the race seems likely to be close, meaning major parties are relying on their preference choices of minor groups to get them over the line. |
| What it all adds up to: If Australia ends up with a minority government, a conservative coalition might find itself beholden to populists and xenophobes, and a Labor coalition might have to make nice with marijuana legalizers and anti-vaxxers. — Livia Albeck-Ripka | What it all adds up to: If Australia ends up with a minority government, a conservative coalition might find itself beholden to populists and xenophobes, and a Labor coalition might have to make nice with marijuana legalizers and anti-vaxxers. — Livia Albeck-Ripka |
| Want more Australia coverage and discussion? Sign up for the weekly Australia Letter, start your day with your local Morning Briefing and join us in our Facebook group. | Want more Australia coverage and discussion? Sign up for the weekly Australia Letter, start your day with your local Morning Briefing and join us in our Facebook group. |