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Jeremy Hunt attempts to break Yemen peace process stalemate Jeremy Hunt attempts to break Yemen peace process stalemate
(3 months later)
Jeremy Hunt is to make a fresh effort to keep the Yemen peace process alive as he faces pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to declare that the Houthis have failed to abide by commitments to move their forces from Hodeida.Jeremy Hunt is to make a fresh effort to keep the Yemen peace process alive as he faces pressure from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to declare that the Houthis have failed to abide by commitments to move their forces from Hodeida.
The UK foreign secretary was due to host the Saudi and Emirati foreign ministers in London on Friday, as well as David Satterfield, a US acting assistant secretary of state and a Middle East veteran.The UK foreign secretary was due to host the Saudi and Emirati foreign ministers in London on Friday, as well as David Satterfield, a US acting assistant secretary of state and a Middle East veteran.
Devastation of shelling in Hodeidah: 'My daughters died hungry' | Rod Austin and Karl SchembriDevastation of shelling in Hodeidah: 'My daughters died hungry' | Rod Austin and Karl Schembri
The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have held Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, and the port city of Hodeida for three years, but are facing a concerted coalition effort to dislodge them, coordinated by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf states say they are seeking to restore the UN-recognised government of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. But there are disputes between the UAE and the Saudis about Hadi’s legitimacy.The Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have held Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, and the port city of Hodeida for three years, but are facing a concerted coalition effort to dislodge them, coordinated by the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Gulf states say they are seeking to restore the UN-recognised government of Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. But there are disputes between the UAE and the Saudis about Hadi’s legitimacy.
The war has claimed up to 70,000 lives, plunged hundreds of thousands into famine and there has recently been a fresh outbreak of cholera.The war has claimed up to 70,000 lives, plunged hundreds of thousands into famine and there has recently been a fresh outbreak of cholera.
The UN-sponsored peace process has hit a succession of roadblocks since the two sides agreed in Stockholm in December to withdraw troops from around the strategic Red Sea port of Hodeida.The UN-sponsored peace process has hit a succession of roadblocks since the two sides agreed in Stockholm in December to withdraw troops from around the strategic Red Sea port of Hodeida.
A truce around the town has partly held, even if both sides repeatedly log incidents of ceasefire breaches.A truce around the town has partly held, even if both sides repeatedly log incidents of ceasefire breaches.
Yemen has been troubled by civil wars for decades, but the current conflict intensified in March 2015 when a Saudi-led coalition intervened on behalf of the internationally recognised government against Houthi rebels aligned with the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.Yemen has been troubled by civil wars for decades, but the current conflict intensified in March 2015 when a Saudi-led coalition intervened on behalf of the internationally recognised government against Houthi rebels aligned with the former president Ali Abdullah Saleh.
The war is widely regarded as having turned a poor country into a humanitarian catastrophe. Riyadh expected its air power, backed by regional coalition including the United Arab Emirates, could defeat the Houthi insurgency in a matter of months. The war is widely regarded as having turned a poor country into a humanitarian catastrophe. Riyadh expected its air power, backed by regional coalition including the United Arab Emirates, could defeat the Houthi insurgency in a matter of months but instead it has triggered the world's worst humanitarian disaster, with 80% of the population - more than 24 million people - requiring assistance or protection and more than 90,000 dead.
Instead some reports suggest nearly 100,000 people have died. Others put the death toll much lower, but fighting this year alone has displaced 250,000 people. There are more than 30 active front lines. A total of 80% of the population – more than 24 million people – need assistance and protection, including 10 million who rely on food aid to survive.
Its roots lie in the Arab spring. Pro-democracy protesters took to the streets in a bid to force the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to end his 33-year rule. He responded with economic concessions but refused to resign.Its roots lie in the Arab spring. Pro-democracy protesters took to the streets in a bid to force the president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, to end his 33-year rule. He responded with economic concessions but refused to resign.
By March 2011, tensions on the streets of the capital city, Sana’a, resulted in protesters dying at the hands of the military.By March 2011, tensions on the streets of the capital city, Sana’a, resulted in protesters dying at the hands of the military.
Following an internationally brokered deal, there was a transfer of power in November to the vice-president, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, paving the way for elections in February 2012 – in which he was the only candidate to lead a transitional government. Hadi’s attempts at constitutional and budget reforms were rejected by Houthi rebels from the north.Following an internationally brokered deal, there was a transfer of power in November to the vice-president, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, paving the way for elections in February 2012 – in which he was the only candidate to lead a transitional government. Hadi’s attempts at constitutional and budget reforms were rejected by Houthi rebels from the north.
The Houthis belong to a small branch of Shia Muslims known as Zaydis. They captured the capital, forcing Hadi to flee eventually to Riyadh. The Houthis captured the capital, forcing Hadi to flee eventually to Riyadh.
The UN brokered an agreement in Stockholm in December 2018 to demilitarise the Red Sea city of Hodeidah, and after five months of tortuous talks a small part of the agreement has been implemented on the ground. The Houthis had promised a two-phase redeployment out of the city, and agreed that an alternative force – poorly defined in the Stockholm agreement – would take over security in the areas they vacated. But talks between the Houthis and the UAE-backed government forces stalled over the details.
Faced by an impasse, the UN sanctioned a unilateral Houthi withdrawal from the three main ports on Yemen’s Red Sea coast – Hodeidah, Ras Issa and Saleef. The Yemeni government described the withdrawal as a sham, saying the Houthis had merely rebadged their fighters as coastguards. They pressed for the resignation of Martin Griffiths, the UN special envoy for Yemen. Not everyone in the Yemen government agreed with this analysis and the foreign minister quit.
No progress has been made on the second phase of redeployment, or the exchange of political prisoners. Griffiths is now trying to secure enough progress in Hodeidah to get off this hook and say the time is ripe for wider political talks on a transitional government to be held in Bonn.
Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic editor
The UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, has travelled to Sana’a and Hodeida to clear the blockages to the redeployment, and told the UN security council on 15 April that Michael Lollesgaard, a UN-appointed former general, had finally secured agreement to phase one of the withdrawal of forces loyal to the Houthis, a group who prefer to be known as Ansar Allah.The UN special envoy for Yemen, Martin Griffiths, has travelled to Sana’a and Hodeida to clear the blockages to the redeployment, and told the UN security council on 15 April that Michael Lollesgaard, a UN-appointed former general, had finally secured agreement to phase one of the withdrawal of forces loyal to the Houthis, a group who prefer to be known as Ansar Allah.
The International Crisis Group, a thinktank tracking the civil war, says the delay is primarily caused by a dispute between Hadi and Houthis over the nature of the force that should take over Hodeida. Hadi wants the forces to be drawn from the pre-2014 police force and coastguards, and for them to be supervised by the interior ministry. The Houthis’ interpretation is that current security forces – which include many of their supporters – will remain in the city and ports, with minimal changes, once military forces have been removed.The International Crisis Group, a thinktank tracking the civil war, says the delay is primarily caused by a dispute between Hadi and Houthis over the nature of the force that should take over Hodeida. Hadi wants the forces to be drawn from the pre-2014 police force and coastguards, and for them to be supervised by the interior ministry. The Houthis’ interpretation is that current security forces – which include many of their supporters – will remain in the city and ports, with minimal changes, once military forces have been removed.
Hunt said at the start of the meeting: “This is a horrendous conflict and it is taking too long to turn the ceasefire agreed in Stockholm into a durable path to peace. While it is hugely welcome that both sides recently agreed the UN’s plan for the first phase of troop redeployments in Hodeida, this took two months after the initial agreement was reached in Stockholm – far longer than we had all hoped.”Hunt said at the start of the meeting: “This is a horrendous conflict and it is taking too long to turn the ceasefire agreed in Stockholm into a durable path to peace. While it is hugely welcome that both sides recently agreed the UN’s plan for the first phase of troop redeployments in Hodeida, this took two months after the initial agreement was reached in Stockholm – far longer than we had all hoped.”
The Saudis and UAE are almost trapped politically, aware that the prosecution of the war is causing immense damage to their reputation, and yet not capable of reaching a wider political agreement with the Houthis on Yemen’s future.The Saudis and UAE are almost trapped politically, aware that the prosecution of the war is causing immense damage to their reputation, and yet not capable of reaching a wider political agreement with the Houthis on Yemen’s future.
Some western diplomats say it is an unanswered question whether the loose Houthi military and political structures are capable of reaching an agreement.Some western diplomats say it is an unanswered question whether the loose Houthi military and political structures are capable of reaching an agreement.
Some also in retrospect question whether Hodeida was the right place to focus an initial agreement, since the port’s monetary and strategic value to the Houthis is so large that it is difficult for its leaders to withdraw in favour of a neutral force.Some also in retrospect question whether Hodeida was the right place to focus an initial agreement, since the port’s monetary and strategic value to the Houthis is so large that it is difficult for its leaders to withdraw in favour of a neutral force.
Helen Lackner, a Yemen expert, is one of many to note that the Stockholm agreement was “signed under heavy pressure, the very brevity and vagueness of the texts … are a reminder of the rushed process which brought them about”.Helen Lackner, a Yemen expert, is one of many to note that the Stockholm agreement was “signed under heavy pressure, the very brevity and vagueness of the texts … are a reminder of the rushed process which brought them about”.
But there appears to be no US desire to set a deadline by which the Stockholm agreement must be implemented. The US Congress has voted to end US support for the war, a decision that has prompted a rare presidential veto by Donald Trump.But there appears to be no US desire to set a deadline by which the Stockholm agreement must be implemented. The US Congress has voted to end US support for the war, a decision that has prompted a rare presidential veto by Donald Trump.
YemenYemen
Jeremy HuntJeremy Hunt
Foreign policyForeign policy
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
IranIran
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