Remainers: don’t panic about European elections. Just participating is a win

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/26/elections-european-brexit-party-eu-democracy

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Shall we start with the good news or the bad news? The bad news is that the remainers’ European election campaign has so far proved an amateurish shambles. The anti-Brexit parties have refused to coalesce and are arguing among themselves, the Labour party is still pretending it doesn’t want the election to happen, while Change UK is campaigning under three aliases and has already lost two candidates to historical racist tweets.

The good news is that it almost certainly doesn’t matter. Of course the European elections are important, and of course remainers should aim to succeed. The European parliament gives legislators – and by extension, ordinary voters – direct power and influence over the EU project. Consequently the election will help shape our contribution to the EU in the coming months (or perhaps years). What it will not do is change any of the facts or dynamics over Brexit.

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Nigel Farage has launched a slick media campaign for his latest publicity vehicle, and the Brexit party is forecast to perform well – particularly if it replicates Vote Leave’s trusted model and declines to identify any real-life policies, choices or consequences. But Farage’s coalition could emerge as the largest party and it would still not constitute a disaster for the pro-EU campaign.

First, nothing will change in Brussels. The EU will not harden its attitude because the UK electorate has returned Brexit-supporting MEPs. British voters have, after all, been doing that since 1999. The EU negotiates with national governments, not political parties. Nor will we especially stand out in the European parliament. Most EU electorates send a proportion of populists to Strasbourg; some send actual Nazis. A big win for the Brexiters would not even alter the parliament’s current make-up. The chamber is already stacked with ex-Ukip MEPs who only appear distinguishable by their boorish incompetence.

Second, very little will change in Westminster. European elections have never had a significant impact on domestic politics; the Tories won in 1999 and then went down to a second landslide defeat in the general election two years later. There is no reason why the election should make a second referendum either more or less likely, and MPs who rejected Theresa May’s Brexit deal before Easter will have no incentive to change their minds.

There is only one risk here for remainers – that a big win for the Brexit party could spook some Labour MPs into voting for May’s package after all. But provided the Labour vote holds up, and indicates that MPs’ seats are safe, this risk ought to be minimal. In any case, most analysts will be observing not the number of seats allocated but the share of ballots cast. Farage will do well, but it seems unlikely that the Brexit party, Tories, Ukip and the DUP will collectively gain more than 50% of the vote. Indeed, the biggest story of the election is likely to be the humiliation of the Conservative party. Given that this is the party responsible for delivering Brexit, its drubbing in a national poll is unlikely to harm remainers. Even if the government lurched towards no-deal, parliament would not allow it and the EU would not insist on it.

In truth, the most important thing about this election is the fact that it is happening at all. It helps to enshrine the association of democracy with an institution frequently condemned for lacking it. Simply by participating, Brexiters are tacitly acknowledging and legitimising the EU, and voter turnout could be one of the highest ever for a European election.

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More importantly, the election constitutes a key psychological milestone. After the extension erased a concrete departure date, voters will now send British politicians to Brussels for a potential five-year term. Three years after the referendum, people will note that they are actively participating in the operation of the EU, a lot of Brexiters will represent them in Brussels, the sky will not fall in, and life will go on. For a long time the country internalised the apparent truth that we were going to leave the EU; this election helps to normalise the previously unthinkable conclusion that we might stay in. That, above all, is why the government tried everything it could to stop it happening.

This is no time for complacency or ineptitude. Pro-EU parties should campaign as hard as ever to defeat the Brexiters. But we should also place the current troubles in perspective: the remainers’ most significant victory may already have taken place.