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| U.S. and Japan Push for a Trade Deal Following Failed Pacific Partnership | U.S. and Japan Push for a Trade Deal Following Failed Pacific Partnership |
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| WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Friday that trade talks between the United States and Japan were “moving along very nicely” and suggested a deal might be reached by late May as he met with Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, at the White House. | WASHINGTON — President Trump said on Friday that trade talks between the United States and Japan were “moving along very nicely” and suggested a deal might be reached by late May as he met with Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, at the White House. |
| Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe have begun discussing a bilateral trade deal that could give American farmers more access to Japan’s market and forestall tariffs on Japanese cars. | Mr. Trump and Mr. Abe have begun discussing a bilateral trade deal that could give American farmers more access to Japan’s market and forestall tariffs on Japanese cars. |
| A deal is not certain, but the potential for a bilateral agreement was almost unthinkable two years ago, when Mr. Trump pulled the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation pact that Mr. Abe had negotiated with President Barack Obama. Japan, which formalized the trade agreement last year, initially refused to strike a separate deal with the United States, insisting that it should instead return to the pact. | A deal is not certain, but the potential for a bilateral agreement was almost unthinkable two years ago, when Mr. Trump pulled the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12-nation pact that Mr. Abe had negotiated with President Barack Obama. Japan, which formalized the trade agreement last year, initially refused to strike a separate deal with the United States, insisting that it should instead return to the pact. |
| But Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach to trade, along with security concerns about North Korea and China, has brought Japan back to the negotiating table. The president has already placed tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum and has threatened to impose hefty tariffs on the approximately 1.7 million cars that Japan sends annually to the United States. | But Mr. Trump’s aggressive approach to trade, along with security concerns about North Korea and China, has brought Japan back to the negotiating table. The president has already placed tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminum and has threatened to impose hefty tariffs on the approximately 1.7 million cars that Japan sends annually to the United States. |
| That domineering treatment has not deterred Mr. Abe, who has emphasized his personal rapport with the American president and wants to avoid a protracted dispute. Mr. Abe appears willing to deliver Mr. Trump a political victory on trade, if the United States can make some compromises. | That domineering treatment has not deterred Mr. Abe, who has emphasized his personal rapport with the American president and wants to avoid a protracted dispute. Mr. Abe appears willing to deliver Mr. Trump a political victory on trade, if the United States can make some compromises. |
| In a meeting with Mr. Abe at the White House on Friday, Mr. Trump highlighted his primary goal, which is gaining more access to Japan’s market for American farmers. | In a meeting with Mr. Abe at the White House on Friday, Mr. Trump highlighted his primary goal, which is gaining more access to Japan’s market for American farmers. |
| “We’ll be discussing, very strongly, agriculture,” Mr. Trump said. “Because, as the Prime Minister knows, Japan puts very massive tariffs on agriculture — our agriculture — going for many years, going into Japan. And we want to get rid of those tariffs.” | |
| The two sides are also discussing economic and security concerns, and advisers from the two countries wrapped up a series of meetings on Friday on efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. On Friday evening, the leaders and their wives were scheduled to celebrate the birthday of Melania Trump, the first lady, over dinner, and on Saturday to play a short round of golf. | The two sides are also discussing economic and security concerns, and advisers from the two countries wrapped up a series of meetings on Friday on efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. On Friday evening, the leaders and their wives were scheduled to celebrate the birthday of Melania Trump, the first lady, over dinner, and on Saturday to play a short round of golf. |
| Few world leaders have put more time and effort into cultivating ties with Mr. Trump than Mr. Abe, and few have gotten less of a payoff. Mr. Abe may now have to stump for a less-popular bilateral trade deal with the United States, after pouring his political capital into the Trans-Pacific Partnership. | Few world leaders have put more time and effort into cultivating ties with Mr. Trump than Mr. Abe, and few have gotten less of a payoff. Mr. Abe may now have to stump for a less-popular bilateral trade deal with the United States, after pouring his political capital into the Trans-Pacific Partnership. |
| Mr. Trump plunged into a risky nuclear negotiation with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, despite Mr. Abe’s warnings to hold a tough line with Pyongyang. Officials in Tokyo worry that a nuclear deal could hurt Japan, if Mr. Kim agrees to give up his intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can reach the United States, without surrendering his intermediate and short-range missiles, which can hit Japan. | Mr. Trump plunged into a risky nuclear negotiation with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un, despite Mr. Abe’s warnings to hold a tough line with Pyongyang. Officials in Tokyo worry that a nuclear deal could hurt Japan, if Mr. Kim agrees to give up his intercontinental ballistic missiles, which can reach the United States, without surrendering his intermediate and short-range missiles, which can hit Japan. |
| In that regard, the impasse between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim in Hanoi in February was positive news. Japanese officials were encouraged that Mr. Trump rejected Mr. Kim’s demand to lift onerous sanctions against North Korea in return for it shutting down an aging nuclear facility at Yongbyon. As long as Mr. Trump refuses such demands, analysts said, he and Mr. Abe will be on the same page. | In that regard, the impasse between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim in Hanoi in February was positive news. Japanese officials were encouraged that Mr. Trump rejected Mr. Kim’s demand to lift onerous sanctions against North Korea in return for it shutting down an aging nuclear facility at Yongbyon. As long as Mr. Trump refuses such demands, analysts said, he and Mr. Abe will be on the same page. |
| What could be more challenging for Mr. Abe, in the short run, is persuading Mr. Trump to remain a visible presence at international gatherings, like the Group of 20 summit meeting, scheduled for the Japanese city of Osaka in June, as well as the Group of 7 meeting set for France in August and the East Asia Summit in Thailand. Japan, which assumed the G-20 presidency for the first time this year, views the gatherings as a crucial way to exercise diplomatic leverage. | What could be more challenging for Mr. Abe, in the short run, is persuading Mr. Trump to remain a visible presence at international gatherings, like the Group of 20 summit meeting, scheduled for the Japanese city of Osaka in June, as well as the Group of 7 meeting set for France in August and the East Asia Summit in Thailand. Japan, which assumed the G-20 presidency for the first time this year, views the gatherings as a crucial way to exercise diplomatic leverage. |
| Mr. Trump will visit Tokyo to meet the new emperor, Naruhito, in May, only a month before the Osaka summit meeting. He famously clashed with other Western leaders at his last Group of 7 meeting in Canada. And he sent Vice President Mike Pence in his stead to last year’s East Asia Summit in Singapore. | Mr. Trump will visit Tokyo to meet the new emperor, Naruhito, in May, only a month before the Osaka summit meeting. He famously clashed with other Western leaders at his last Group of 7 meeting in Canada. And he sent Vice President Mike Pence in his stead to last year’s East Asia Summit in Singapore. |
| “The Japanese would be lucky to get Trump to one of the three,” said Michael J. Green, who holds the Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They really need him to support the international institutions that underpin Japan’s own diplomatic position.” | “The Japanese would be lucky to get Trump to one of the three,” said Michael J. Green, who holds the Japan chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They really need him to support the international institutions that underpin Japan’s own diplomatic position.” |
| On trade, the two sides appear to be heading toward a limited deal that would give American farmers and ranchers better access to the Japanese market, and Mr. Trump a political victory before the 2020 presidential election. The countries could then swing back later for a more comprehensive trade agreement covering manufacturing and services. | On trade, the two sides appear to be heading toward a limited deal that would give American farmers and ranchers better access to the Japanese market, and Mr. Trump a political victory before the 2020 presidential election. The countries could then swing back later for a more comprehensive trade agreement covering manufacturing and services. |
| Mr. Trump indicated on Friday that a deal could be in the final stages by the time he heads to Japan. | Mr. Trump indicated on Friday that a deal could be in the final stages by the time he heads to Japan. |
| “I think it can go fairly quickly. Maybe by the time I’m over there, maybe we sign it over there. But it’s moving along very nicely, we’ll see what happens,” the president said. | “I think it can go fairly quickly. Maybe by the time I’m over there, maybe we sign it over there. But it’s moving along very nicely, we’ll see what happens,” the president said. |
| But several questions remain — particularly what Japan would receive in return for agreeing to such favorable trade terms for American farmers. If Japan demands that the United States reciprocate by lowering existing tariffs on products like light trucks, that could require a more lengthy congressional approval that the Trump administration is eager to avoid. | But several questions remain — particularly what Japan would receive in return for agreeing to such favorable trade terms for American farmers. If Japan demands that the United States reciprocate by lowering existing tariffs on products like light trucks, that could require a more lengthy congressional approval that the Trump administration is eager to avoid. |
| Mr. Trump wants Japan to reduce its exports and manufacture more cars at factories built in the United States to reduce a large bilateral trade deficit. Mr. Trump has not yet indicated whether he will lift his metal tariffs on Japan or allow it to avoid the auto tariffs he has repeatedly threatened to impose on a host of trading partners. Japan is likely to request an exemption from both. | Mr. Trump wants Japan to reduce its exports and manufacture more cars at factories built in the United States to reduce a large bilateral trade deficit. Mr. Trump has not yet indicated whether he will lift his metal tariffs on Japan or allow it to avoid the auto tariffs he has repeatedly threatened to impose on a host of trading partners. Japan is likely to request an exemption from both. |
| The president has a deadline of May 18 to decide whether to place levies on foreign cars — a move he says would help bolster the American auto industry. But Mr. Trump could delay the tariffs for countries with which the United States is negotiating — or agree to a carve-out from any tariffs if Japan gives Washington a big victory. | The president has a deadline of May 18 to decide whether to place levies on foreign cars — a move he says would help bolster the American auto industry. But Mr. Trump could delay the tariffs for countries with which the United States is negotiating — or agree to a carve-out from any tariffs if Japan gives Washington a big victory. |
| Avoiding those tariffs is critical for Japan, which supplies about one-fifth of American vehicle imports by value. On Friday, Mr. Abe emphasized that Japan had no tariffs on American autos, and that the Japanese business community had announced $23 billion of investment in the United States since Mr. Trump took office. | |
| “If I’m Abe, this trade thing is kind of a pain in the neck to me,” said Clyde Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration official, adding that Japan was more concerned with security issues in China and North Korea. “What I need to do is get Trump off my back.” | “If I’m Abe, this trade thing is kind of a pain in the neck to me,” said Clyde Prestowitz, a former Reagan administration official, adding that Japan was more concerned with security issues in China and North Korea. “What I need to do is get Trump off my back.” |
| Mr. Trump’s primary demands for Japan are likely to center on access to agricultural markets for farmers and ranchers that have been hit hard by his trade battles with China, Canada, Mexico and Europe. That group — an important constituency for the president’s re-election — say Washington’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership has put them at a disadvantage. | Mr. Trump’s primary demands for Japan are likely to center on access to agricultural markets for farmers and ranchers that have been hit hard by his trade battles with China, Canada, Mexico and Europe. That group — an important constituency for the president’s re-election — say Washington’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership has put them at a disadvantage. |
| Beef from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Mexico, which are all part of the partnership, is now charged a 26.6 percent tariff in Japan, compared with a rate of 38.5 percent for American products, and data shows that American goods are already losing market share. That disadvantage will grow as further tariff cuts from the Pacific deal are phased in, said Kent Bacus, senior director of international trade at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. | Beef from Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Mexico, which are all part of the partnership, is now charged a 26.6 percent tariff in Japan, compared with a rate of 38.5 percent for American products, and data shows that American goods are already losing market share. That disadvantage will grow as further tariff cuts from the Pacific deal are phased in, said Kent Bacus, senior director of international trade at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association. |
| “The Japanese market is critical for the U.S. cattle and beef industry,” Mr. Bacus said. “We urge the Trump administration to continue taking all necessary steps to secure a trade agreement with Japan as quickly as possible.” | “The Japanese market is critical for the U.S. cattle and beef industry,” Mr. Bacus said. “We urge the Trump administration to continue taking all necessary steps to secure a trade agreement with Japan as quickly as possible.” |
| Given how much Japanese automakers fear looming tariffs, a deal where Japan opens its market to American beef and the United States agrees not to impose auto tariffs “would be a perfect solution for Japan,” said Shujiro Urata, a professor of economics at Waseda University in Tokyo. “The balance — or imbalance — of power between Japan and the U.S. means that Japan cannot ask so much from the U.S. at the moment.” | Given how much Japanese automakers fear looming tariffs, a deal where Japan opens its market to American beef and the United States agrees not to impose auto tariffs “would be a perfect solution for Japan,” said Shujiro Urata, a professor of economics at Waseda University in Tokyo. “The balance — or imbalance — of power between Japan and the U.S. means that Japan cannot ask so much from the U.S. at the moment.” |
| He added that automakers would probably be willing to increase investments in factories in the United States so that more cars would be built domestically rather than shipped from Japan. | He added that automakers would probably be willing to increase investments in factories in the United States so that more cars would be built domestically rather than shipped from Japan. |
| Still, Japan could ask for some concessions, like a reduction in the current tariffs of 20 percent that the United States imposes on light truck imports. | Still, Japan could ask for some concessions, like a reduction in the current tariffs of 20 percent that the United States imposes on light truck imports. |
| “We are not just going to give in on all the agricultural production and get nothing” in return, said Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to Washington. | “We are not just going to give in on all the agricultural production and get nothing” in return, said Ichiro Fujisaki, a former Japanese ambassador to Washington. |
| Any signatories to the T.P.P. will also be looking to see if the American negotiators gain better terms through any bilateral agreement. | Any signatories to the T.P.P. will also be looking to see if the American negotiators gain better terms through any bilateral agreement. |
| Jeffrey Wilson, a research fellow at the Perth USAsia Center at the University of Western Australia, said the T.P.P. countries were likely to be deeply concerned if the United States were given access to Japan without having to make concessions or join the multilateral deal. | Jeffrey Wilson, a research fellow at the Perth USAsia Center at the University of Western Australia, said the T.P.P. countries were likely to be deeply concerned if the United States were given access to Japan without having to make concessions or join the multilateral deal. |
| “It’s terrible for countries like Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Vietnam and Malaysia that had to do serious reforms to get into the deal if they let the U.S. backdoor in,” Mr. Wilson said. | “It’s terrible for countries like Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Vietnam and Malaysia that had to do serious reforms to get into the deal if they let the U.S. backdoor in,” Mr. Wilson said. |