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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/apr/10/uk-gdp-report-growth-february-brexit-ecb-draghi-eurozone-business-live
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| UK GDP report to show if growth stalled in February – business live | UK GDP report to show if growth stalled in February – business live |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Transport group Stagecoach has suffered the indignity of being disqualified from the race to control three UK rail franchises. | |
| The Department for Transport brandished the red card after concluding that the firm’s bids to run trains on the East Midlands, South Eastern and West Coast franchises were “non-compliant”. | |
| Stagecoach’s error? Not providing sufficient funding for the Railways Pension Scheme, despite the DfT insisting this was a crucial part of the franchise terms. | |
| Shares in UK pharmaceuticals firm Indivior are plunging this morning, after the firm was charged with fraudulently boosting demand for its opioid drug. | |
| A US grand jury says Indivior illegally, and wrongly, told healthcare providers that its Suboxone Film, which contains the opioid buprenorphine, was better and safer than similar drugs. | |
| The indictment says: | |
| “Indivior illegally obtained billions of dollars in revenue from Suboxone Film prescriptions by deceiving health care providers and health care benefit programs into believing that Suboxone Film is safer and less susceptible to diversion and abuse than other, similar drugs.” | |
| Indivior now faces twenty-eight felony counts - one count of conspiracy to commit mail, wire and health care fraud; one count of health care fraud; four counts of mail fraud; and twenty-two counts of wire fraud. | |
| Shares in the firm, which was spun out of consumer good giant Reckitt Benckiser in 2014, have halved in early trading, from 105p to just 49p. | |
| Currently, more than 130 Americans die every day after overdosing on opioids. The grand jury accuses Indivior of pushing patients towards doctors who prescribed opioids at high rates. | |
| https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/apr/09/opioid-addiction-indivior-indictment | |
| Indivior insists that the allegations are “wholly unsupported by either the facts or the law”, and that it is committed to helping solve the US opioid crisis. | |
| “Indivior has never deliberately diverted its product. The government claims that the company aided the careless and clinically unwarranted prescribing by doctors of SUBOXONE® products to too many people or in too high doses. | |
| To the contrary, we have engaged in an extensive education campaign to teach doctors about recommended SUBOXONE® dosing limits and patient caps and have developed a process to identify concerning prescribers, going beyond what the law requires. | |
| Indivior also flags up that the allegations relate to the time before it was demerged from Reckitt Benckiser -- whose shares are down 3.5% this morning, the biggest FTSE 100 faller. | |
| Tesco chief Dave Lewis is in cheery mood this morning, after reporting that profits jumped by a third last year. | Tesco chief Dave Lewis is in cheery mood this morning, after reporting that profits jumped by a third last year. |
| Four years after taking control of the company (and promptly reporting a £250m black hole in its accounts), Lewis is preparing to wave the ‘mission accomplished’ banner. | Four years after taking control of the company (and promptly reporting a £250m black hole in its accounts), Lewis is preparing to wave the ‘mission accomplished’ banner. |
| He says: | He says: |
| “After four years we have met or are about to meet the vast majority of our turnaround goals. “I’m very confident that we will complete the journey in 2019/20.” | “After four years we have met or are about to meet the vast majority of our turnaround goals. “I’m very confident that we will complete the journey in 2019/20.” |
| Under Lewis’s watch Tesco has slashed prices, simplified its ranges, merged with wholesale chain Booker, and managed to grow market share despite the rise of discount rivals. | Under Lewis’s watch Tesco has slashed prices, simplified its ranges, merged with wholesale chain Booker, and managed to grow market share despite the rise of discount rivals. |
| On the Brexit front, Lewis says Tesco isn’t seeing signs of significant stockpiling, but suspects customers are fatigued with the issue. | On the Brexit front, Lewis says Tesco isn’t seeing signs of significant stockpiling, but suspects customers are fatigued with the issue. |
| Today’s UK GDP report comes at a critical time for the global economy. | Today’s UK GDP report comes at a critical time for the global economy. |
| Last night, Italy’s government slashed its 2019 growth forecast to just 0.2% - down from 1%. That means Rome is certain to miss its budget deficit target, teeing up a new clash with Brussels. | Last night, Italy’s government slashed its 2019 growth forecast to just 0.2% - down from 1%. That means Rome is certain to miss its budget deficit target, teeing up a new clash with Brussels. |
| The International Monetary Fund has also added to the gloom, by cutting its growth forecasts and warning that a no-deal Brexit could trigger a long recession. | The International Monetary Fund has also added to the gloom, by cutting its growth forecasts and warning that a no-deal Brexit could trigger a long recession. |
| IMF says no-deal Brexit risks two-year recession for UK | IMF says no-deal Brexit risks two-year recession for UK |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Today we discover how Britain’s economy performed in February, in the face of Brexit gridlock and weakness in the global economy. | Today we discover how Britain’s economy performed in February, in the face of Brexit gridlock and weakness in the global economy. |
| February’s GDP report is due at 9.30am today. City economists have a range of guesstimates, from solid 0.3% growth to a chilling 0.2% contraction. But the consensus is that there was no growth at all during the month. | February’s GDP report is due at 9.30am today. City economists have a range of guesstimates, from solid 0.3% growth to a chilling 0.2% contraction. But the consensus is that there was no growth at all during the month. |
| Service sector firms and industrial groups are expected to have grown slowly, while construction output may have shrunk. | Service sector firms and industrial groups are expected to have grown slowly, while construction output may have shrunk. |
| This would mean the UK only grew by 0.2% in the last quarter, the same as a month ago, following a 0.4% contraction in December but 0.5% growth in January. | This would mean the UK only grew by 0.2% in the last quarter, the same as a month ago, following a 0.4% contraction in December but 0.5% growth in January. |
| If so, that would suggest that Theresa May’s failure to get her Brexit deal through parliament has hurt the economy. Economic weakness in the eurozone, and the knock-on impact of the US-China trade dispute, would also be blamed. | If so, that would suggest that Theresa May’s failure to get her Brexit deal through parliament has hurt the economy. Economic weakness in the eurozone, and the knock-on impact of the US-China trade dispute, would also be blamed. |
| This morning’s data is also expected to show Britain ran its traditional trade deficit in February, at around £3.9bn. | This morning’s data is also expected to show Britain ran its traditional trade deficit in February, at around £3.9bn. |
| Analysts at TD Securities say: | Analysts at TD Securities say: |
| “Underlying our forecast are small gains in services and IP offset by a contraction in construction. | “Underlying our forecast are small gains in services and IP offset by a contraction in construction. |
| Data in the coming months is likely to be choppy, and we would read little into a single month’s observation until Brexit uncertainty wanes.” | Data in the coming months is likely to be choppy, and we would read little into a single month’s observation until Brexit uncertainty wanes.” |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| Investors will be watching Frankfurt, where the European Central Bank holds a monetary policy meeting. Fireworks aren’t expected, though, as Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, explains: | Investors will be watching Frankfurt, where the European Central Bank holds a monetary policy meeting. Fireworks aren’t expected, though, as Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst at FXTM, explains: |
| Mario Draghi and his fellow policymakers are expected to sit on their hands this month, with little room to maneuver amid significant headwinds. | Mario Draghi and his fellow policymakers are expected to sit on their hands this month, with little room to maneuver amid significant headwinds. |
| While political tensions in France and Brexit uncertainties are beyond the central bank’s control, these factors have been highlighted by the IMF as putting downward pressure on growth, leaving the ECB to bide for time and watch how these risks manifest into the real economy. | While political tensions in France and Brexit uncertainties are beyond the central bank’s control, these factors have been highlighted by the IMF as putting downward pressure on growth, leaving the ECB to bide for time and watch how these risks manifest into the real economy. |
| They’ll then turn their attention to Brussels, where European leaders will tonight consider the UK’s latest Brexit extension request (a long delay looks likely). | They’ll then turn their attention to Brussels, where European leaders will tonight consider the UK’s latest Brexit extension request (a long delay looks likely). |
| Brexit: May's hopes dashed as EU targets delay of up to a year | Brexit: May's hopes dashed as EU targets delay of up to a year |
| On the corporate front, supermarket chain Tesco has just posted a near-30% rise in profits, as its turnaround plan bears fruit. UK retailers Dunelm and ASOS are also reporting results today. | On the corporate front, supermarket chain Tesco has just posted a near-30% rise in profits, as its turnaround plan bears fruit. UK retailers Dunelm and ASOS are also reporting results today. |
| Tesco Fy sales up by 11.2% to £63.9bn while profits have jumped by 28% to £1.7bn -beating forecasts with the best results under Dave Lewis | Tesco Fy sales up by 11.2% to £63.9bn while profits have jumped by 28% to £1.7bn -beating forecasts with the best results under Dave Lewis |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9.30am BST: UK GDP report for February | 9.30am BST: UK GDP report for February |
| 9.30am BST: UK trade and industrial production figures for February | 9.30am BST: UK trade and industrial production figures for February |
| 12.45pm BST: European Central Bank interest rate decision | 12.45pm BST: European Central Bank interest rate decision |
| 1.30pm BST: ECB press conference | 1.30pm BST: ECB press conference |