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Labour and Tories reluctantly prepare for European elections Labour and Tories reluctantly prepare for European elections
(about 2 hours later)
The official starting gun has been fired on a set of UK European elections that are distinct in two particular ways: first, they might never happen; and second, if they do the smaller parties are looking forward to them more than the main ones.The official starting gun has been fired on a set of UK European elections that are distinct in two particular ways: first, they might never happen; and second, if they do the smaller parties are looking forward to them more than the main ones.
On Monday, a “day of poll order” was laid in parliament, putting in place the legal groundwork for voting on 23 May, something that will not happen if Theresa May secures a Brexit deal in the interim.On Monday, a “day of poll order” was laid in parliament, putting in place the legal groundwork for voting on 23 May, something that will not happen if Theresa May secures a Brexit deal in the interim.
Tories invite candidates to contest European electionsTories invite candidates to contest European elections
The Electoral Commission is thus busy preparing teams to oversee an election that could be cancelled at the last minute, a situation the watchdog concedes is unprecedented but says is entirely a matter for the government. The Electoral Commission is thus busy preparing teams to oversee an election that could be cancelled at the last minute, a situation the watchdog concedes is unprecedented but said is entirely a matter for the government.
Amid this Schrödinger’s election, parties must select candidates, prepare campaigns and tee up activists, all in the knowledge it could be for nothing. On top of this, the Conservatives and Labour are braced for something of a kicking. Amid this Schrödinger’s election, parties must select candidates, prepare campaigns and tee up activists, all in the knowledge it could be for nothing. On top of this, the Conservatives and Labour seem braced for something of a kicking.
Euro elections have long been a chance for UK voters to back smaller parties, not least as the PR system means they are rewarded with representations. In the last poll in 2014, Ukip won the most votes and got 24 MEPs. For Labour this could be a misplaced fear – a poll for the Open Europe thinktank put the party on 37.8% of the vote. In contrast, the poll had the Conservatives at just 23%.
If the election happens there will be more parties than ever hoping to capitalise, particularly on voter disgruntlement with Brexit. As well as a resurgent Ukip, Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is recruiting candidates. But the situation is hugely unpredictable. Euro elections have long been a chance for UK voters to back smaller parties, not least as the PR system means they are rewarded. In the last poll in 2014, Ukip won the most votes and got 24 MEPs.
On the remain side as well as the Lib Dems and Greens, the new Independent Group says it hopes to make the election a “proxy referendum” on Brexit. And if this election happens there will be more parties than ever hoping to capitalise, particularly on disgruntlement with Brexit. As well as a resurgent Ukip, Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party is busy recruiting candidates.
Perhaps the unhappiest contenders are the Conservatives, who are riven by Brexit splits, with a deeply unhappy grassroots membership and, according to a forecast by pollsters ComRes, tipped to win about 22% of the vote. On the remain side as well as the Lib Dems and Greens, the new Independent Group said it hopes to make the election a “proxy referendum” on Brexit.
Conservative MEPs were warned in a meeting last week that they faced “annihilation”. This has left some furious about the idea of having to spend money and time on standing again to either lose their seats or spend an unclear length of time in post. Perhaps the unhappiest contenders are the Conservatives, who are riven by Brexit splits and faced a deeply unhappy grassroots membership. Conservative MEPs were warned in a meeting last week that they faced annihilation. This has left some furious about the idea of having to spend money and time on standing again to either lose their seats or spend an unclear length of time in post.
One Tory MEP said: “We will be absolutely annihilated. That’s what was said in the meeting. We are probably looking at about half the current number of MEPs.One Tory MEP said: “We will be absolutely annihilated. That’s what was said in the meeting. We are probably looking at about half the current number of MEPs.
Don't dread the European elections – they could fix our broken politics | Maya GoodfellowDon't dread the European elections – they could fix our broken politics | Maya Goodfellow
“It is going to cost all of us to stand again as the party has very little money for it at the moment. Many of us are asking what’s the point? Everybody is going to have to make up their mind soon whether it is worth taking part.”“It is going to cost all of us to stand again as the party has very little money for it at the moment. Many of us are asking what’s the point? Everybody is going to have to make up their mind soon whether it is worth taking part.”
For Labour, one worry is the short timetable needed to recruit enough candidates to fill the bulk of the 73-MEP slate, with 21 of the party’s 25 existing MEPs standing again. The party is working fast, sending an email to members last week seeking people willing to put themselves forward.For Labour, one worry is the short timetable needed to recruit enough candidates to fill the bulk of the 73-MEP slate, with 21 of the party’s 25 existing MEPs standing again. The party is working fast, sending an email to members last week seeking people willing to put themselves forward.
“With a snap election the problem is often one of properly vetting people – as we found out in 2017,” one Labour MP said.“With a snap election the problem is often one of properly vetting people – as we found out in 2017,” one Labour MP said.
The ComRes modelling has Labour on 30%, up on the 24.4% in 2014. But one concern is the party being caught in a Brexit backlash, especially if the leadership is seen as moving away from backing a second referendum. While the Open Europe poll figure is well above the 24.4% in 2014, there is concern the party could face a a Brexit backlash, especially if the leadership is seen as moving away from backing a second referendum.
“It’s the local elections on 2 May, so we’ll be in campaign mode in lots of places anyway,” the MP said. “But a lot could happen quickly. If we’re seen as likely to agree a Brexit deal without a second referendum a lot of activists will be fuming, and might just disappear.”“It’s the local elections on 2 May, so we’ll be in campaign mode in lots of places anyway,” the MP said. “But a lot could happen quickly. If we’re seen as likely to agree a Brexit deal without a second referendum a lot of activists will be fuming, and might just disappear.”
In contrast, the Greens and Lib Dems are relishing the contrast. Molly Scott Cato, a Green MEP and the party’s EU spokeswoman, said the vote would “give the majority of British citizens who now think we should stay in the EU the chance to express their voices”. In contrast, the Greens and Lib Dems are relishing the challenge. Molly Scott Cato, a Green MEP and the party’s EU spokeswoman, said the vote would “give the majority of British citizens who now think we should stay in the EU the chance to express their voices”.
The Independent Group, which is polling at about 10%, is not yet fully registered as a political party, plans to put up at least one candidate in every geographical area, with a high-speed process to select and vet candidates under way. The Independent Group, which has polled at about 10%, although the new poll puts it at just 4.1%, plans to put up at least one candidate in every geographical area, with a high-speed process to select and vet candidates under way.
And while Ukip and the Brexit party will be essentially competing for the same voters, unlike in most UK elections the PR system means both could thrive. According to ComRes, Farage’s organisation is currently on 12% support, with Ukip at 10%. And while Ukip and the Brexit party will be essentially competing for the same voters, unlike in most UK elections the PR system means both could thrive. According to the poll, Farage’s organisation is currently on 10.3% support, with Ukip at 7.5%.
Ukip has the experience and past record – even though resignations, many prompted by the party’s new, anti-Islam stance, means they now only have eight remaining of the 24 MEPs elected in 2014, and have lost many activists. The party says it has selected a full slate of 73 candidates. Ukip has the experience and past record – even though resignations, many prompted by the party’s new anti-Islam stance, mean it now only has eight remaining of the 24 MEPs elected in 2014, and has lost many activists. The party says it has selected a full slate of 73 candidates.
The Independent Group looks to European elections for breakthroughThe Independent Group looks to European elections for breakthrough
The Brexit party, which faced a recent challenge when its first leader was forced to step down over offensive social media posts, says it is nonetheless inundated with applications from would-be MEPs, and aims to stand a full lineup, with the exception of Northern Ireland. The Brexit party, which faced a recent challenge when its first leader was forced to step down over offensive social media posts, said it is nonetheless inundated with applications from would-be MEPs, and aims to stand a full lineup, with the exception of Northern Ireland.
Such is the range of factors at play that predicting an outcome is hugely difficult, especially for an election that might not happen at all.Such is the range of factors at play that predicting an outcome is hugely difficult, especially for an election that might not happen at all.
Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and elections analyst, notes that while the Conservatives and Labour could do badly, this must be put into the context of the last European elections. Robert Hayward, a Conservative peer and elections analyst, noted that while the Conservatives and Labour could do badly, this must be put into the context of the last European elections.
“Let’s remember, in 2014, they actually got 23% and 25% respectively, and Ukip got 27%. So in fact. if you’re talking about a massacre of the major parties, we actually saw that in 2014. Is it going to be worse? Yes it could be – but to whom?” “Let’s remember, in 2014, they actually got 23% and 25% respectively, and Ukip got 27%. So, in fact, if you’re talking about a massacre of the major parties, we actually saw that in 2014. Is it going to be worse? Yes it could be – but to whom?”
European electionsEuropean elections
European UnionEuropean Union
EuropeEurope
UK Independence party (Ukip)UK Independence party (Ukip)
ConservativesConservatives
BrexitBrexit
LabourLabour
analysisanalysis
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