Will Theresa May have to accept a longer Brexit delay?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/05/will-theresa-may-have-to-accept-a-longer-brexit-delay

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What has Theresa May asked for?

She has asked the EU for a new departure date of 30 June, with an option to leave sooner if the necessary legislation is passed before then. The government’s aim is to depart before 22 May to avoid the UK having to take part in European parliament elections.

Will the EU agree?

It seems not. May asked for a 30 June deadline at the previous European council summit and was rebuffed. No 10 insists circumstances are different now. But Donald Tusk, the council president, has instead proposed a flexible year-long extension, which could be curtailed if and when a departure deal is finalised. This seems the more likely to happen, not least because all 27 EU nations have to agree to any extension.

Does this mean May will have to accept a longer delay?

This appears quite likely. The prime minister has been adamant she does not want a delay beyond 30 June or to hold European elections. But when her spokesman was asked on Friday if this was being definitively ruled out, he said only that May was “focused on achieving” a 30 June departure at the latest, and would not be drawn on what else might happen.

Would this mean there would be European elections?

Contingency planning for the polls (by both officials and parties) was already under way, and now the formal processes will kick in to hold the elections on 23 May. But the government still hopes to formally leave before then, meaning the elections would be cancelled. The Electoral Commission acknowledges this is an unprecedented situation – to enact an election that might never happen – but says it is up to ministers to decide.

What’s happened to the talks with Labour?

They’re still taking place, albeit at a lower level. After the face-to-face talks between May and Jeremy Corbyn and their teams, and then between ministers and shadow ministers, on Friday the only discussions were phone calls and one-off meetings.

Both sides are still publicly positive about what is being achieved, but no tangible progress has been announced and it is understood Labour is sceptical about whether the government can produce a realistic plan.

So what happens now?

All attention will now be focused on an emergency Brussels summit that begins on Wednesday evening and is expected to go through the night. It remains to be seen what, if anything, May will have to propose in the way of a revised departure plan. Under the proposal outlined in the PM’s Downing Street TV statement on Tuesday, if the talks with Labour do not produce a consensus plan then the next option is to put various options to the House of Commons, which MPs would then decide on.

Getting through all this before the summit appears to be a very tight timetable: a plan for Commons votes would need to be tabled as a motion by Monday evening so that MPs could debate the matter on Tuesday.

Crucially, May has said – and reiterated in her letter to Tusk – that the Commons vote process is predicated on both the government and Labour agreeing to abide by whatever decision is made. It is difficult to see how the necessary wrangling over what options to put to the Commons, and the voting system, could be decided so quickly.

Does this mean we’re looking at a longer extension?

That would seem the most likely outcome. But as with everything connected to Brexit, events could move quickly.