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| US jobs report to provide latest healthcheck on global economy - business live | US jobs report to provide latest healthcheck on global economy - business live |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| A reminder that a Brexit Flextension is not a foregone conclusion: | |
| European commission on flextension. "We saw this notion, this term," Commission spokesman says. "The only game in town is the European council, which will start Wednesday at 6pm." | |
| John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, has responded to the weak productivity figures: | |
| We have a productivity crisis on our hands and this government is in denial about it. | |
| For all the chancellor’s talk of a ‘productivity agenda’, productivity continues to stagnate and is 18% below its pre-crisis trend. | |
| The next Labour government will tackle low productivity as part of our transformative agenda, establishing a national investment bank and a network of regional development banks to provide the lending and investment this country so desperately needs. | |
| UK productivity is still lagging behind the pre-crisis trend more than a decade ago, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. | UK productivity is still lagging behind the pre-crisis trend more than a decade ago, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. |
| Output per hour fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the same period a year ago, and was 18% below its pre-downturn trend. | Output per hour fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the same period a year ago, and was 18% below its pre-downturn trend. |
| For 2018 overall, productivity grew by 0.5% compared with 2017. | For 2018 overall, productivity grew by 0.5% compared with 2017. |
| Richard Heys, deputy chief economist at the ONS, said: | Richard Heys, deputy chief economist at the ONS, said: |
| Our latest figures show a continuation of a decade of weak growth, often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’, with labour productivity growth lower over the last decade than at any time in the 20th century. It has taken the UK a decade to deliver 2% growth, which historically was achieved in a single year. | Our latest figures show a continuation of a decade of weak growth, often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’, with labour productivity growth lower over the last decade than at any time in the 20th century. It has taken the UK a decade to deliver 2% growth, which historically was achieved in a single year. |
| This affects both the public and private sectors, although one bright spot is healthcare, with more planned procedures taking place than usual through the winter, improving productivity across public services compared with the previous quarter. | This affects both the public and private sectors, although one bright spot is healthcare, with more planned procedures taking place than usual through the winter, improving productivity across public services compared with the previous quarter. |
| Stephen Hubble, chief analyst at currency firm Centtrip, says we could be in for a few surprises when the US non-farm payrolls report is published this afternoon: | Stephen Hubble, chief analyst at currency firm Centtrip, says we could be in for a few surprises when the US non-farm payrolls report is published this afternoon: |
| Today’s non-farm payroll and wages data will be watched closely as last time the number missed expectations substantially. Only 20,000 new jobs were added versus the 180,000 forecast, with a “hangover” from the longest-in-history US government shutdown last December and January blamed for the lapse. | Today’s non-farm payroll and wages data will be watched closely as last time the number missed expectations substantially. Only 20,000 new jobs were added versus the 180,000 forecast, with a “hangover” from the longest-in-history US government shutdown last December and January blamed for the lapse. |
| If today’s release comes close to the forecast of 190,000 for March, market participants will breathe a sigh of relief. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, a precursor to NFP, came in much weaker than expected at 129,000 as opposed to the forecast of 170,000. I would think surprises could be in store. | If today’s release comes close to the forecast of 190,000 for March, market participants will breathe a sigh of relief. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, a precursor to NFP, came in much weaker than expected at 129,000 as opposed to the forecast of 170,000. I would think surprises could be in store. |
| Jasper Jolly reports: | Jasper Jolly reports: |
| The chairman of Swedbank resigned on Friday morning, bowing to intense pressure after a money laundering scandal was revealed at the Swedish lender. | The chairman of Swedbank resigned on Friday morning, bowing to intense pressure after a money laundering scandal was revealed at the Swedish lender. |
| Swedbank has already fired its chief executive, and has faced questions over when it knew about the alleged money laundering. | Swedbank has already fired its chief executive, and has faced questions over when it knew about the alleged money laundering. |
| The departing chairman, Lars Idermark, said that media scrutiny was affecting his other job as chief executive of Södra, a forestry company, and that he would therefore step down from his non-executive role at Swedbank. | The departing chairman, Lars Idermark, said that media scrutiny was affecting his other job as chief executive of Södra, a forestry company, and that he would therefore step down from his non-executive role at Swedbank. |
| In a statement issued by Swedbank, Idermark said: | In a statement issued by Swedbank, Idermark said: |
| I have concluded that the media attention is not compatible with my CEO role at Södra. Therefore, I have decided that the best alternative is to leave the position as Chair of Swedbank with immediate effect. | I have concluded that the media attention is not compatible with my CEO role at Södra. Therefore, I have decided that the best alternative is to leave the position as Chair of Swedbank with immediate effect. |
| The latest scandal is linked to the previous money laundering uncovered at Denmark’s Danske Bank. Danske admitted in September that about €200bn (£178bn) of cash flowing through its Estonian branch was money laundered from countries including Russia, the UK and British Virgin Islands. | The latest scandal is linked to the previous money laundering uncovered at Denmark’s Danske Bank. Danske admitted in September that about €200bn (£178bn) of cash flowing through its Estonian branch was money laundered from countries including Russia, the UK and British Virgin Islands. |
| At least 40bn Swedish crowns (£3.2bn) of suspicious transactions flowed between the Baltic accounts of Swedbank and Danske Bank between 2007 and 2015. | At least 40bn Swedish crowns (£3.2bn) of suspicious transactions flowed between the Baltic accounts of Swedbank and Danske Bank between 2007 and 2015. |
| Idermark, who returned for a second stint as chairman of the bank in 2016, also defended his communication over the scandal, saying he was restricted in what he could say by privacy laws. | Idermark, who returned for a second stint as chairman of the bank in 2016, also defended his communication over the scandal, saying he was restricted in what he could say by privacy laws. |
| Hours before Carlos Ghosn was re-arrested in Japan on Thursday, he struck a resilient tone in an interview with French television. | Hours before Carlos Ghosn was re-arrested in Japan on Thursday, he struck a resilient tone in an interview with French television. |
| The former chairman of Nissan, who had been out on bail awaiting trial on charges of financial misconduct, said hew would defend himself to “the bitter end”. | The former chairman of Nissan, who had been out on bail awaiting trial on charges of financial misconduct, said hew would defend himself to “the bitter end”. |
| He added: | He added: |
| I have doubts over the way the judgment will take place. If there is a fair ruling, I am very confident but if it is not fair, I am worried about what will happen. | I have doubts over the way the judgment will take place. If there is a fair ruling, I am very confident but if it is not fair, I am worried about what will happen. |
| Ghosn said that during his previous detention he had been forced to sleep with the lights on was not allowed to see his family. He said: | Ghosn said that during his previous detention he had been forced to sleep with the lights on was not allowed to see his family. He said: |
| I wouldn’t wish what I have suffered on my worst enemy. | I wouldn’t wish what I have suffered on my worst enemy. |
| Read the full story here: | Read the full story here: |
| Carlos Ghosn to fight to 'bitter end' as ex-Nissan chairman detained for 10 days | Carlos Ghosn to fight to 'bitter end' as ex-Nissan chairman detained for 10 days |
| European markets are subdued this morning ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report: | European markets are subdued this morning ahead of the US non-farm payrolls report: |
| FTSE 100: +0.2% at 7,414 | FTSE 100: +0.2% at 7,414 |
| Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 11,981 | Germany’s DAX: -0.1% at 11,981 |
| France’s CAC: +0.1% at 5,469 | France’s CAC: +0.1% at 5,469 |
| Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.3% at 21,762 | Italy’s FTSE MIB: +0.3% at 21,762 |
| Spain’s IBEX: +0.1% at 9,539 | Spain’s IBEX: +0.1% at 9,539 |
| Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.1% at 388 | Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.1% at 388 |
| Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, says the March fall in UK house prices reported by Halifax comes as no surprise given all the Brexit “shenanigans”: | Tomer Aboody, director of property lender MT Finance, says the March fall in UK house prices reported by Halifax comes as no surprise given all the Brexit “shenanigans”: |
| March has been dominated by Brexit so the monthly fall in property prices comes as no surprise. For the past couple of years March was flagged up as the date when we would get Brexit and people have been too busy watching the political shenanigans on television to go out and view houses. | March has been dominated by Brexit so the monthly fall in property prices comes as no surprise. For the past couple of years March was flagged up as the date when we would get Brexit and people have been too busy watching the political shenanigans on television to go out and view houses. |
| The Brexit saga is such a debacle and until it gets sorted, one way or another, few people are going to do anything. There are fewer enquiries out there and fewer people want to sell. Less stock means values will go down - those selling are those who have to sell and may therefore take a lower price. Those who are brave enough to buy believe nothing is going to change in the future so they are going to take advantage of the uncertainty. | The Brexit saga is such a debacle and until it gets sorted, one way or another, few people are going to do anything. There are fewer enquiries out there and fewer people want to sell. Less stock means values will go down - those selling are those who have to sell and may therefore take a lower price. Those who are brave enough to buy believe nothing is going to change in the future so they are going to take advantage of the uncertainty. |
| The pound is up against both the euro and the dollar this morning, supported by expectations that the EU will offer Theresa May a one-year “flexible” extension to Article 50. | The pound is up against both the euro and the dollar this morning, supported by expectations that the EU will offer Theresa May a one-year “flexible” extension to Article 50. |
| The pound is up 0.1% against both the euro and the dollar at €1.1660 and $1.3096 respectively. So not exactly major moves but in positive territory (for now at least). | The pound is up 0.1% against both the euro and the dollar at €1.1660 and $1.3096 respectively. So not exactly major moves but in positive territory (for now at least). |
| Brexit: Donald Tusk will tell EU to back 'flextension' for UK | Brexit: Donald Tusk will tell EU to back 'flextension' for UK |
| The orange line in the graphic below shows how varied the monthly Halifax data has been: | The orange line in the graphic below shows how varied the monthly Halifax data has been: |
| Howard Archer, chief economist to EY’s forecasting group, makes the point that the Halifax survey has been erratic: | Howard Archer, chief economist to EY’s forecasting group, makes the point that the Halifax survey has been erratic: |
| #Halifax report #UK #house prices fell back 1.6% m/m in March after frankly bizarre reported 6.0% m/m spike in Feb. Index has been erratic and much stronger overall than other measures in recent months. Annual increase up to 3.2% in 3 months to March (2.8% in 3 months to Feb) | #Halifax report #UK #house prices fell back 1.6% m/m in March after frankly bizarre reported 6.0% m/m spike in Feb. Index has been erratic and much stronger overall than other measures in recent months. Annual increase up to 3.2% in 3 months to March (2.8% in 3 months to Feb) |
| UK house prices fell 1.6% in March according to the mortgage lender Halifax, taking the average price of a home to £233,181. | UK house prices fell 1.6% in March according to the mortgage lender Halifax, taking the average price of a home to £233,181. |
| It was a smaller drop than the 2.4% fall predicted by economists, and - underlining the volatility of the monthly survey - followed a 6% rise in February. | It was a smaller drop than the 2.4% fall predicted by economists, and - underlining the volatility of the monthly survey - followed a 6% rise in February. |
| The annual growth in UK house prices picked up to 3.2% in March from 2.8% in February. | The annual growth in UK house prices picked up to 3.2% in March from 2.8% in February. |
| Halifax said London in particular remains the weak spot, reflecting the trend seen in other surveys. | Halifax said London in particular remains the weak spot, reflecting the trend seen in other surveys. |
| Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax: | Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax: |
| The average UK house price is now £233,181 following a 1.6% monthly fall in March. This reduction partly corrects the significant growth seen last month and again demonstrates the risk in focusing too heavily on short-term, volatile measures. | The average UK house price is now £233,181 following a 1.6% monthly fall in March. This reduction partly corrects the significant growth seen last month and again demonstrates the risk in focusing too heavily on short-term, volatile measures. |
| Industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages being approved remains around 40% below pre- financial crisis levels, and we know that lower levels of activity can lead to bigger price movements. | Industry-wide figures show that the number of mortgages being approved remains around 40% below pre- financial crisis levels, and we know that lower levels of activity can lead to bigger price movements. |
| The more stable measure of annual house price growth rose slightly to 3.2% and is still within our expectation for the year. The need to build up a deposit before getting a mortgage is still a challenge for many looking to buy a property. However, the combined effect of fewer houses for sale and fewer people looking to buy continues to support prices in the long-term. | The more stable measure of annual house price growth rose slightly to 3.2% and is still within our expectation for the year. The need to build up a deposit before getting a mortgage is still a challenge for many looking to buy a property. However, the combined effect of fewer houses for sale and fewer people looking to buy continues to support prices in the long-term. |
| These conflicting challenges, when combined with the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit, have had an impact across the country but most notably in London, meaning that we continue to expect subdued price growth for the time being. | These conflicting challenges, when combined with the ongoing uncertainty around Brexit, have had an impact across the country but most notably in London, meaning that we continue to expect subdued price growth for the time being. |
| David Madden at CMC Markets, says that the weak non-farm payrolls report for February could be either be a sign of weakness in the US economy or a tightening of the jobs market, which means employers need to offer higher wages to fill vacancies. | David Madden at CMC Markets, says that the weak non-farm payrolls report for February could be either be a sign of weakness in the US economy or a tightening of the jobs market, which means employers need to offer higher wages to fill vacancies. |
| It is the wages component of the jobs report that is becoming more crucial, Madden says: | It is the wages component of the jobs report that is becoming more crucial, Madden says: |
| The earnings component of the report has become more important lately as US workers who earn more, are more likely to spend more. Also, a high earnings number could be construed that the labour market is tight, and that employers need to offer higher wages in order to attract staff. | The earnings component of the report has become more important lately as US workers who earn more, are more likely to spend more. Also, a high earnings number could be construed that the labour market is tight, and that employers need to offer higher wages in order to attract staff. |
| The March report is expected to show annual earnings growth of 3.4% in March, unchanged from February. | The March report is expected to show annual earnings growth of 3.4% in March, unchanged from February. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| All eyes will be focused on the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, which will provide the latest snapshot of the health of the jobs market and wider economy. | All eyes will be focused on the monthly US non-farm payrolls report, which will provide the latest snapshot of the health of the jobs market and wider economy. |
| This month’s report for March will be of particular interest, after February’s figures shocked with just 20,000 jobs created compared with the 180,000 forecast by economists. | This month’s report for March will be of particular interest, after February’s figures shocked with just 20,000 jobs created compared with the 180,000 forecast by economists. |
| The huge miss troubled investors and added to concerns about a global slowdown. Forecasters are expecting a much bigger number today, with payrolls expected to come in at 180,000. Another big miss in the figures this afternoon would reignite fears of a downturn. | The huge miss troubled investors and added to concerns about a global slowdown. Forecasters are expecting a much bigger number today, with payrolls expected to come in at 180,000. Another big miss in the figures this afternoon would reignite fears of a downturn. |
| Jasper Lawler from London Capital Group, says that although today’s report is likely to be “solid”, the underlying picture may be weaker: | Jasper Lawler from London Capital Group, says that although today’s report is likely to be “solid”, the underlying picture may be weaker: |
| A strong headline figure and solid wage growth will give investors a good distraction from economic slowdown fears. However, the fact is that the economy could be slowing, whilst the US labour market remains strong. This is because employment is a lagging indicator. | A strong headline figure and solid wage growth will give investors a good distraction from economic slowdown fears. However, the fact is that the economy could be slowing, whilst the US labour market remains strong. This is because employment is a lagging indicator. |
| Today’s economic data: | Today’s economic data: |
| 8.30am BST: The UK lender Halifax publishes its house prices report for March | 8.30am BST: The UK lender Halifax publishes its house prices report for March |
| 9.30am: The ONS will publish productivity data for the final quarter of 2018 | 9.30am: The ONS will publish productivity data for the final quarter of 2018 |
| 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls report and average earnings for March | 1.30pm BST: US non-farm payrolls report and average earnings for March |
| We will also be looking at any Brexit-related market moves and all the biggest corporate news of the day. | We will also be looking at any Brexit-related market moves and all the biggest corporate news of the day. |