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| US jobs growth beats forecast but wage growth slows - as it happened | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| The main event of the day was the closely watched US non-farm payrolls report for March. | |
| It attracted even greater scrutiny than usual after a shockingly weak report in February. | |
| There were 196,000 jobs added in March, beating expectations of a 180,000 rise. The number for February was revised up to 33,000 from 20,000. | |
| But wage growth slowed to 3.2% from 3.4%, and there was a surprise fall in manufacturing jobs in a potential sign that America’s tough stance on trade is starting to weigh. | |
| In the UK, Halifax reported a 1.6% fall in house prices in March - the month that the UK was supposed to leave the EU. It followed a 6% rise in February, underlining the volatile nature of the monthly index. Annually prices rose 2.6%. | |
| The pound was up earlier in the session but is now down 0.4% against both the euro and the dollar, at €1.1601 and $1.3023 respectively. | |
| Sterling’s loss is the FTSE 100’s gain, with the index now up 36 points or 0.5% at 7,438. | |
| The latest productivity figures from the ONS showed the UK still has a major challenge, with the rise in worker efficiency in 2018 only a quarter of the level seen before the financial crisis a decade ago. | |
| And over in Japan, in an interview given just hours before he was re-arrested on Thursday, Carlos Ghosn vowed to fight on “to the bitter end”. | |
| That’s all for today. Thank you for reading the blog and commenting, and please do join us again on Monday. AM | |
| US markets are up after the opening bell, boosted by the stronger than expected non-farm payrolls report. | |
| Dow Jones: +0.3% at 26,465 | |
| S&P 500: +0.2% at 2,886 | |
| Nasdaq: +0.3% at 7,917 | |
| Over in Greece, tensions with its eurozone partners eased on Friday as the country took stock of almost €1bn in long-awaited aid. | Over in Greece, tensions with its eurozone partners eased on Friday as the country took stock of almost €1bn in long-awaited aid. |
| The nation at the epicentre of Europe’s long-running economic crisis was told the money would be forthcoming at a crucial meeting of eurozone finance ministers meeting in Bucharest this morning. | The nation at the epicentre of Europe’s long-running economic crisis was told the money would be forthcoming at a crucial meeting of eurozone finance ministers meeting in Bucharest this morning. |
| Hopes had been high in Athens that after months of wrangling over a household insolvency scheme – seen as key to facilitating the recovery of bad bank debt - the disbursement would finally go through. The debt relief is mainly from profits on Greek bonds held by eurozone banks during the crisis. | Hopes had been high in Athens that after months of wrangling over a household insolvency scheme – seen as key to facilitating the recovery of bad bank debt - the disbursement would finally go through. The debt relief is mainly from profits on Greek bonds held by eurozone banks during the crisis. |
| The spat over measures to protect thousands of borrowers from losing their primary homes had not only delayed the tranche but once again soured the leftist government’s relations with creditors. | The spat over measures to protect thousands of borrowers from losing their primary homes had not only delayed the tranche but once again soured the leftist government’s relations with creditors. |
| As the holder of the biggest bailout in global financial history, Greece has received an estimated €280bn in rescue funds since 2010. | As the holder of the biggest bailout in global financial history, Greece has received an estimated €280bn in rescue funds since 2010. |
| There is a sense of relief after the headline non-farms number for March was better than expected, following February’s shocker. | There is a sense of relief after the headline non-farms number for March was better than expected, following February’s shocker. |
| James Knightley, chief international economist at ING: | James Knightley, chief international economist at ING: |
| After a poor start to the year, some better news has started to come through including today’s US jobs report. Payrolls growth has been very choppy recently, possibly due to the government shutdown and weather, with January’s 311,000 increase followed by a poor (but upwardly revised) February figure of 33,000. We seem to be back on track with a 196,000 gain for March, above the 177,000 consensus. | After a poor start to the year, some better news has started to come through including today’s US jobs report. Payrolls growth has been very choppy recently, possibly due to the government shutdown and weather, with January’s 311,000 increase followed by a poor (but upwardly revised) February figure of 33,000. We seem to be back on track with a 196,000 gain for March, above the 177,000 consensus. |
| Kully Samra, vice president at Charles Schwab: | Kully Samra, vice president at Charles Schwab: |
| The outlook for the US economy remains strong relative to slowing global growth. Job numbers today have surpassed expectations and wage growth is on the rise. We continue to believe that wages will gradually increase, even if hiring slows. | The outlook for the US economy remains strong relative to slowing global growth. Job numbers today have surpassed expectations and wage growth is on the rise. We continue to believe that wages will gradually increase, even if hiring slows. |
| However, we have seen a continued slowdown in the first quarter and, as the Fed is now forecasting no rate hikes in 2019, investors should not become complacent to the binary risks of a sharper slowdown in growth, or a flare up of inflation due to the tight labour market. | However, we have seen a continued slowdown in the first quarter and, as the Fed is now forecasting no rate hikes in 2019, investors should not become complacent to the binary risks of a sharper slowdown in growth, or a flare up of inflation due to the tight labour market. |
| Here is our full story on the March non-farm payrolls report: | Here is our full story on the March non-farm payrolls report: |
| US jobs report: March bounces back with 196,000 jobs added | US jobs report: March bounces back with 196,000 jobs added |
| The non-farm payrolls report showed manufacturing jobs fell by 6,000 in March, which was a big miss compared with expectations of a 10,000 increase. | The non-farm payrolls report showed manufacturing jobs fell by 6,000 in March, which was a big miss compared with expectations of a 10,000 increase. |
| Dominic Rushe, business editor for Guardian US writes: | Dominic Rushe, business editor for Guardian US writes: |
| March’s strong figures also contained a surprise dip in manufacturing jobs that may point to trouble ahead. | March’s strong figures also contained a surprise dip in manufacturing jobs that may point to trouble ahead. |
| Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. More than half a million manufacturing jobs have been added since his election. | Donald Trump campaigned on a promise to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US. More than half a million manufacturing jobs have been added since his election. |
| But the pace of hiring has slowed in recent months as the Trump administration’s trade wars rattled the sector. In February, the sector added 1,000 jobs, the weakest number in over a year. In the 12 months prior to February, manufacturing had added an average of 22,000 jobs a month, according to the labor department. | But the pace of hiring has slowed in recent months as the Trump administration’s trade wars rattled the sector. In February, the sector added 1,000 jobs, the weakest number in over a year. In the 12 months prior to February, manufacturing had added an average of 22,000 jobs a month, according to the labor department. |
| The headline jobs figure of 196,000 was better than expected but annual wage growth fell unexpectedly to 3.2% in March from 3.4% in February. | The headline jobs figure of 196,000 was better than expected but annual wage growth fell unexpectedly to 3.2% in March from 3.4% in February. |
| The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, as expected. | The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, as expected. |
| The fact there was no major shocker on the headline jobs number is boosting US futures: | The fact there was no major shocker on the headline jobs number is boosting US futures: |
| Stock futures are higher on solid jobs report https://t.co/KxUdqXC37A pic.twitter.com/GERR2KfTto | Stock futures are higher on solid jobs report https://t.co/KxUdqXC37A pic.twitter.com/GERR2KfTto |
| Breaking: US non-farm payrolls are in and the headline number is 196,000. | Breaking: US non-farm payrolls are in and the headline number is 196,000. |
| This is better than the 180,000 expected and a sharp increase on February’s figure of 33,000, which was revised up from 20,000. | This is better than the 180,000 expected and a sharp increase on February’s figure of 33,000, which was revised up from 20,000. |
| With less than 10 minutes to non-farm payrolls, here is what economists polled by Reuters are expecting for the headline figures for March: | With less than 10 minutes to non-farm payrolls, here is what economists polled by Reuters are expecting for the headline figures for March: |
| Non-farm payrolls: 180,000 | Non-farm payrolls: 180,000 |
| Unemployment rate: 3.8% | Unemployment rate: 3.8% |
| Average earnings: 3.4% | Average earnings: 3.4% |
| Norway’s sovereign wealth fund - the world’s largest – is cutting emerging market bonds from the benchmark index it tracks. | Norway’s sovereign wealth fund - the world’s largest – is cutting emerging market bonds from the benchmark index it tracks. |
| The finance ministry said it will remove government and corporate bonds issued by Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea and Thailand. | The finance ministry said it will remove government and corporate bonds issued by Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Korea and Thailand. |
| The ministry said in a statement: | The ministry said in a statement: |
| Along with certain adjustments to the country weightings for government bonds, the changes proposed will facilitate lower transaction costs in the management of the Fund. | Along with certain adjustments to the country weightings for government bonds, the changes proposed will facilitate lower transaction costs in the management of the Fund. |
| Norway's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund is reducing its allocation to emerging markets bonds & currencies. https://t.co/eHyo7ehAm1 | Norway's $1 trillion sovereign wealth fund is reducing its allocation to emerging markets bonds & currencies. https://t.co/eHyo7ehAm1 |
| The Co-op has stopped selling single kitchen knives in its supermarkets in response to the increase in knife crime. | The Co-op has stopped selling single kitchen knives in its supermarkets in response to the increase in knife crime. |
| Read the full story here: | Read the full story here: |
| Co-op curbs sale of knives in response to rising crime | Co-op curbs sale of knives in response to rising crime |
| Markets are failing to get motivated this morning according to Connor Campbell at Spreadex, despite a backdrop of key events: | Markets are failing to get motivated this morning according to Connor Campbell at Spreadex, despite a backdrop of key events: |
| Given it’s a Brexit-baking, US-China trade talking, non-farm Friday the markets were remarkably muted as the morning went on. | Given it’s a Brexit-baking, US-China trade talking, non-farm Friday the markets were remarkably muted as the morning went on. |
| The FTSE, at an effective 6-month high already, had little justification for anything bigger than a 0.1% increase, a move that keeps its above 7400 but only marginally. | The FTSE, at an effective 6-month high already, had little justification for anything bigger than a 0.1% increase, a move that keeps its above 7400 but only marginally. |
| Sterling struggled to build on its initial growth, cutting its gains to 0.1% against the dollar while seeing them erased against the euro, as reports of a one-year Article 50 ‘flextension’ offer from Donald Tusk was countered by news that Theresa May has asked the EU for a delay only until 30 June. | Sterling struggled to build on its initial growth, cutting its gains to 0.1% against the dollar while seeing them erased against the euro, as reports of a one-year Article 50 ‘flextension’ offer from Donald Tusk was countered by news that Theresa May has asked the EU for a delay only until 30 June. |
| A reminder that a Brexit Flextension is not a foregone conclusion: | A reminder that a Brexit Flextension is not a foregone conclusion: |
| European commission on flextension. "We saw this notion, this term," Commission spokesman says. "The only game in town is the European council, which will start Wednesday at 6pm." | European commission on flextension. "We saw this notion, this term," Commission spokesman says. "The only game in town is the European council, which will start Wednesday at 6pm." |
| John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, has responded to the weak productivity figures: | John McDonnell, shadow chancellor, has responded to the weak productivity figures: |
| We have a productivity crisis on our hands and this government is in denial about it. | We have a productivity crisis on our hands and this government is in denial about it. |
| For all the chancellor’s talk of a ‘productivity agenda’, productivity continues to stagnate and is 18% below its pre-crisis trend. | For all the chancellor’s talk of a ‘productivity agenda’, productivity continues to stagnate and is 18% below its pre-crisis trend. |
| The next Labour government will tackle low productivity as part of our transformative agenda, establishing a national investment bank and a network of regional development banks to provide the lending and investment this country so desperately needs. | The next Labour government will tackle low productivity as part of our transformative agenda, establishing a national investment bank and a network of regional development banks to provide the lending and investment this country so desperately needs. |
| UK productivity is still lagging behind the pre-crisis trend more than a decade ago, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. | UK productivity is still lagging behind the pre-crisis trend more than a decade ago, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. |
| Output per hour fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the same period a year ago, and was 18% below its pre-downturn trend. | Output per hour fell 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2018, compared with the same period a year ago, and was 18% below its pre-downturn trend. |
| For 2018 overall, productivity grew by 0.5% compared with 2017. | For 2018 overall, productivity grew by 0.5% compared with 2017. |
| Richard Heys, deputy chief economist at the ONS, said: | Richard Heys, deputy chief economist at the ONS, said: |
| Our latest figures show a continuation of a decade of weak growth, often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’, with labour productivity growth lower over the last decade than at any time in the 20th century. It has taken the UK a decade to deliver 2% growth, which historically was achieved in a single year. | Our latest figures show a continuation of a decade of weak growth, often referred to as the ‘productivity puzzle’, with labour productivity growth lower over the last decade than at any time in the 20th century. It has taken the UK a decade to deliver 2% growth, which historically was achieved in a single year. |
| This affects both the public and private sectors, although one bright spot is healthcare, with more planned procedures taking place than usual through the winter, improving productivity across public services compared with the previous quarter. | This affects both the public and private sectors, although one bright spot is healthcare, with more planned procedures taking place than usual through the winter, improving productivity across public services compared with the previous quarter. |
| Stephen Hubble, chief analyst at currency firm Centtrip, says we could be in for a few surprises when the US non-farm payrolls report is published this afternoon: | Stephen Hubble, chief analyst at currency firm Centtrip, says we could be in for a few surprises when the US non-farm payrolls report is published this afternoon: |
| Today’s non-farm payroll and wages data will be watched closely as last time the number missed expectations substantially. Only 20,000 new jobs were added versus the 180,000 forecast, with a “hangover” from the longest-in-history US government shutdown last December and January blamed for the lapse. | Today’s non-farm payroll and wages data will be watched closely as last time the number missed expectations substantially. Only 20,000 new jobs were added versus the 180,000 forecast, with a “hangover” from the longest-in-history US government shutdown last December and January blamed for the lapse. |
| If today’s release comes close to the forecast of 190,000 for March, market participants will breathe a sigh of relief. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, a precursor to NFP, came in much weaker than expected at 129,000 as opposed to the forecast of 170,000. I would think surprises could be in store. | If today’s release comes close to the forecast of 190,000 for March, market participants will breathe a sigh of relief. The ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, a precursor to NFP, came in much weaker than expected at 129,000 as opposed to the forecast of 170,000. I would think surprises could be in store. |