This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/apr/04/german-factory-orders-slump-brexit-trade-wars-china-us-trump-liu-business-live
The article has changed 19 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
Version 8 | Version 9 |
---|---|
German factory orders suffer biggest fall in two years – business live | German factory orders suffer biggest fall in two years – business live |
(32 minutes later) | |
One of Wall Street’s top bankers has called for America to play a more responsible role in world affairs, and to provide more leadership. | |
In an annual letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon warns that one of the biggest uncertainties in the world today is America’s role on the world stage. | |
In a barely disguised criticism of Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and the WTO, Dimon writes: | |
A more secure and more prosperous world is also good for the long-term security and prosperity of the United States. And America’s role in building that more secure world has been and will likely continue to be indispensable. | |
While there are many legitimate complaints about international organizations (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations), the world is better off with these institutions. America should engage and exercise its power and influence cautiously and judiciously. We should all understand that global laws, standards and norms will be established whether or not our nation participates in setting them. It is certain that we will be happier with the evolution of global standards if we help craft and implement them. We should not abdicate this role. To the contrary, it is critical that America help develop the best global standards in trade, immigration, corporate governance and many other important issues. | |
Dimon also makes a pitch to other chief executives, saying they should “take a stand” to help make the world a better place. | |
At JPMorgan Chase, we are strengthening our public policy teams to take our advocacy and ideas to the next level.... | |
It’s not enough just for companies to meet the letter and the spirit of the law. They can also aggressively work to improve society. | |
Fine words, of course. But as the FT’s Katie Martin flags up, this zeal didn’t deter JP Morgan from helping Saudi Arabia sell bonds shortly after the shocking murder of Jamal Khashoggi. | |
pic.twitter.com/7UThsO7A9z | |
Despite all the gloomy talk today, Germany’s stock market has now shaken off its losses - and is up slightly on the day. | Despite all the gloomy talk today, Germany’s stock market has now shaken off its losses - and is up slightly on the day. |
That’s thanks to car makers -- BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are among the top risers this morning, helped by hopes of a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks. | That’s thanks to car makers -- BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are among the top risers this morning, helped by hopes of a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks. |
However, industrial groups are weakening - with Thyssenkrupp (whose blast furnace you can see at the top of this blog) down 1.7%. | However, industrial groups are weakening - with Thyssenkrupp (whose blast furnace you can see at the top of this blog) down 1.7%. |
There’s some speculation that Donald Trump could announce plans for a summit with China’s president Xi later today. | There’s some speculation that Donald Trump could announce plans for a summit with China’s president Xi later today. |
Trump is due to meet vice premier Liu He at the White House at around 4.30pm East Coast time. If the talks between Liu and US officials have gone well, Trump may conclude that a trade deal is close. | Trump is due to meet vice premier Liu He at the White House at around 4.30pm East Coast time. If the talks between Liu and US officials have gone well, Trump may conclude that a trade deal is close. |
The Wall Street Journal reports: | The Wall Street Journal reports: |
An announcement of a summit date is “likely” to come while Trump meets with the Chinese leader’s special envoy, Vice Premier Liu He, at the White House on Thursday, according to an administration official, but discussions remain fluid and those plans could change. | An announcement of a summit date is “likely” to come while Trump meets with the Chinese leader’s special envoy, Vice Premier Liu He, at the White House on Thursday, according to an administration official, but discussions remain fluid and those plans could change. |
This afternoon, Pres meets again with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, back in DC for another round of US/China trade talks. Progress in the talks could be enough for @POTUS to announce a date for a meeting with Pres Xi Jinping. Pres last met with Liu in February. pic.twitter.com/AM9Tu1sXzC | This afternoon, Pres meets again with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, back in DC for another round of US/China trade talks. Progress in the talks could be enough for @POTUS to announce a date for a meeting with Pres Xi Jinping. Pres last met with Liu in February. pic.twitter.com/AM9Tu1sXzC |
The fall in German factory orders in February shows Europe’s largest economy is suffering from increased uncertainty and slowing global growth, say analysts at Oxford Economics. | The fall in German factory orders in February shows Europe’s largest economy is suffering from increased uncertainty and slowing global growth, say analysts at Oxford Economics. |
They’ve crunched today’s report (showing orders down 4.2% month-on-month, and 8.4% year-on-year), and concluded that this “horrendous” report bodes badly for growth prospects. | They’ve crunched today’s report (showing orders down 4.2% month-on-month, and 8.4% year-on-year), and concluded that this “horrendous” report bodes badly for growth prospects. |
They say: | They say: |
Overall, today’s report is clearly negative and represents a clear threat to the short-term outlook for German industry until global growth remerges from the present weakness and the Brexit saga reaches a conclusion. | Overall, today’s report is clearly negative and represents a clear threat to the short-term outlook for German industry until global growth remerges from the present weakness and the Brexit saga reaches a conclusion. |
At face value, tomorrow’s industrial production data is likely to disappoint our and the market’s expectations of a moderate rise. If it does, a revision of our Q1 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 0.3% is likely. | At face value, tomorrow’s industrial production data is likely to disappoint our and the market’s expectations of a moderate rise. If it does, a revision of our Q1 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 0.3% is likely. |
They also produced these charts, showing how domestic orders for German factory goods held up well, for overseas demand was weak. | They also produced these charts, showing how domestic orders for German factory goods held up well, for overseas demand was weak. |
Here’s our news story on the latest drop in UK car sales: | Here’s our news story on the latest drop in UK car sales: |
Sales of new cars fall as UK consumers continue to shun diesel | Sales of new cars fall as UK consumers continue to shun diesel |
Back in the City, shares in Saga - the over-50s insurance and travel specialist - have slumped by a third after a disappointing profits warning. | Back in the City, shares in Saga - the over-50s insurance and travel specialist - have slumped by a third after a disappointing profits warning. |
Much of the company’s problem stem from its insurance arm. Retail broking profits slumped by 19.1% in 2018, hit by tough competition. | Much of the company’s problem stem from its insurance arm. Retail broking profits slumped by 19.1% in 2018, hit by tough competition. |
But its holidays arm is also taking a hit, with travel bookings to Europe this year were down 8% from a year earlier. | But its holidays arm is also taking a hit, with travel bookings to Europe this year were down 8% from a year earlier. |
CEO Lance Batchelor says: | CEO Lance Batchelor says: |
“Brexit is putting a clear dampener on customers’ willingness to commit to holidays in 2019.” | “Brexit is putting a clear dampener on customers’ willingness to commit to holidays in 2019.” |
Shares in travel firm Saga slump as it warns Brexit will hit profits | Shares in travel firm Saga slump as it warns Brexit will hit profits |
In another blow to eurozone spirits, Bloomberg is reporting that the Italian government plans to slash its growth forecast for 2019, from 1% to 0.1%. | In another blow to eurozone spirits, Bloomberg is reporting that the Italian government plans to slash its growth forecast for 2019, from 1% to 0.1%. |
The slide in German factory orders continues to worry economists and investors - here’s some more reaction: | The slide in German factory orders continues to worry economists and investors - here’s some more reaction: |
In #Germany, can’t be worse!Depressed manufacturing outlook. -Factory orders plunged y/y by the most since late 2009. -Foreign demand is behind the drop (lowest since 2015). Key to rebalance growth drivers from exports (uncertainty) to domestic demand and #Germany can do it. pic.twitter.com/RJNaVG1Jih | In #Germany, can’t be worse!Depressed manufacturing outlook. -Factory orders plunged y/y by the most since late 2009. -Foreign demand is behind the drop (lowest since 2015). Key to rebalance growth drivers from exports (uncertainty) to domestic demand and #Germany can do it. pic.twitter.com/RJNaVG1Jih |
In case you missed it earlier.German factory orders data for February missed forecast by a country mile and fell by as much -8.40% in the YoY measure. The chart below (from Trading Economics) shows the monthly data versus manufacturing PMIs.Hmmmm pic.twitter.com/iDdJwe87yh | In case you missed it earlier.German factory orders data for February missed forecast by a country mile and fell by as much -8.40% in the YoY measure. The chart below (from Trading Economics) shows the monthly data versus manufacturing PMIs.Hmmmm pic.twitter.com/iDdJwe87yh |
Wow - German Factory Orders plunge 8.4% Y/Y. The estimate was for a decline of just 3.1%. Germany is not bottoming. pic.twitter.com/IC5JIwdWTw | Wow - German Factory Orders plunge 8.4% Y/Y. The estimate was for a decline of just 3.1%. Germany is not bottoming. pic.twitter.com/IC5JIwdWTw |
Speaking of cars.... Tesla’s shares have slumped 7% in pre-market trading in New York, after its latest delivery figures missed expectations. | Speaking of cars.... Tesla’s shares have slumped 7% in pre-market trading in New York, after its latest delivery figures missed expectations. |
Tesla revealed last night it had only shipped 63,000 new cars in the first quarter of 2019, compared with 90,700 in Q1 2018. It blamed a backlog in getting cars to customers in Europe and China, and admitted that earnings will be below expectations. | Tesla revealed last night it had only shipped 63,000 new cars in the first quarter of 2019, compared with 90,700 in Q1 2018. It blamed a backlog in getting cars to customers in Europe and China, and admitted that earnings will be below expectations. |
Analysts had expected Tesla to ship around 76,000 vehicles, so this is a blow to hopes that Elon Musk’s firm can crack the mass market. | Analysts had expected Tesla to ship around 76,000 vehicles, so this is a blow to hopes that Elon Musk’s firm can crack the mass market. |
Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is concerned that customers are shifting to its new, cheaper, Model 3: | Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is concerned that customers are shifting to its new, cheaper, Model 3: |
“Lower deliveries were expected this quarter, since export of Model 3s to China and Europe meant more vehicles would inevitably finish the quarter in transit. However, the actual number is worse than the market had hoped for, particularly for the more premium Model S and Model X. | “Lower deliveries were expected this quarter, since export of Model 3s to China and Europe meant more vehicles would inevitably finish the quarter in transit. However, the actual number is worse than the market had hoped for, particularly for the more premium Model S and Model X. |
Our concern is that demand for Tesla’s premium models has been permanently affected by the cut in subsidies in the US and that sales are being potentially cannibalised by the cheaper Model 3. With the $35,000 Model 3 variant only just hitting the market, the potential for Tesla to undercut its own products is only growing. In theory premium sales could be offset by high volume, low margin Model 3 sales, but Model 3 production has increased only slightly quarter-on-quarter – hardly the ramp up in production some had been expecting. | Our concern is that demand for Tesla’s premium models has been permanently affected by the cut in subsidies in the US and that sales are being potentially cannibalised by the cheaper Model 3. With the $35,000 Model 3 variant only just hitting the market, the potential for Tesla to undercut its own products is only growing. In theory premium sales could be offset by high volume, low margin Model 3 sales, but Model 3 production has increased only slightly quarter-on-quarter – hardly the ramp up in production some had been expecting. |
Tesla: production slows amid rocky start to the new year | Tesla: production slows amid rocky start to the new year |
Among the major car makers, Ford sales were down 18.5% in March year-on-year. | Among the major car makers, Ford sales were down 18.5% in March year-on-year. |
BMW sales fell 4%, Honda lost 15%, and Toyota fell 17%. | BMW sales fell 4%, Honda lost 15%, and Toyota fell 17%. |
Vauxhall bucked the trend with 2% growth, while Volkswagen sales rose 1%. | Vauxhall bucked the trend with 2% growth, while Volkswagen sales rose 1%. |