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German factory orders slide; JP Morgan's Dimon slams socialism - business live German factory orders slide; JP Morgan's Dimon slams socialism - business live
(32 minutes later)
Concern over Germany’s economy is weighing on the euro, reports Marc-André Fongern of MAF Global Fore:
@graemewearden Europe is watching Germany with an anxious eye today. The engine sputters. Investors we spoke with over the last couple of months are preparing for more negative views, which is one of the main reasons why the EUR can't build momentum.
The number of Americans signing on for unemployment benefit has hit a new 49-year low, suggesting the labour market remains solid despite slowdown fears.
The initial jobless claims figures has fallen to just 202,000 for last week, down from 203,000, to the lowest since the end of 1969.
Chart of the Day! The US initial jobless claims fell to 202K last week, the lowest level since 1969. More importantly, it means jobless claims have not bottomed yet, meaning a #recession signal has NOT been given. pic.twitter.com/o4YWaFB4VG
Putting Jamie Dimon’s musings on political science aside, investors will be more interested to hear that he predicts more market volatility.Putting Jamie Dimon’s musings on political science aside, investors will be more interested to hear that he predicts more market volatility.
He has warned that the extreme volatility seen in the last few months of 2018 may be “a harbinger of things to come”.He has warned that the extreme volatility seen in the last few months of 2018 may be “a harbinger of things to come”.
Dimon says there are good reasons for stocks to have fallen in October-December, including Germany’s slowdown, Brexit, and the US-China trade wars. But the scale of the correction -- markets fell 20% in a few months -- feels like an over-reaction, partly due to steep drops in liquidity.Dimon says there are good reasons for stocks to have fallen in October-December, including Germany’s slowdown, Brexit, and the US-China trade wars. But the scale of the correction -- markets fell 20% in a few months -- feels like an over-reaction, partly due to steep drops in liquidity.
He writes:He writes:
In good markets, liquidity is essentially high and is almost at the same level today as it was before the crisis. But when markets became volatile in the last several years, liquidity dropped much further and faster than it did before the crisis. It is important to remember that this happened in good times.In good markets, liquidity is essentially high and is almost at the same level today as it was before the crisis. But when markets became volatile in the last several years, liquidity dropped much further and faster than it did before the crisis. It is important to remember that this happened in good times.
Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that what we have been experiencing is now the new normal of liquidity – and that we should be prepared for it to be even worse in truly difficult times.Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that what we have been experiencing is now the new normal of liquidity – and that we should be prepared for it to be even worse in truly difficult times.
Jamie Dimon (net worth: $1,300,000,000) also isn’t a fan of socialism.Jamie Dimon (net worth: $1,300,000,000) also isn’t a fan of socialism.
In today’s letter to shareholders, the JP Morgan chief says capitalism has its faults -- it needs a “strong safety net”, and it shouldn’t allow companies to avoid regulation.In today’s letter to shareholders, the JP Morgan chief says capitalism has its faults -- it needs a “strong safety net”, and it shouldn’t allow companies to avoid regulation.
He writes:He writes:
Many countries are called social democracies, and they successfully combine market economies with strong social safety nets. This is completely different from traditional socialism. In a traditional socialist system, the government controls the means of production and decides what to produce and in what quantities, and, often, how and where the citizens work rather than leaving those decisions in the hands of the private sector.Many countries are called social democracies, and they successfully combine market economies with strong social safety nets. This is completely different from traditional socialism. In a traditional socialist system, the government controls the means of production and decides what to produce and in what quantities, and, often, how and where the citizens work rather than leaving those decisions in the hands of the private sector.
When governments control companies, economic assets (companies, lenders and so on) over time are used to further political interests – leading to inefficient companies and markets, enormous favoritism and corruption.When governments control companies, economic assets (companies, lenders and so on) over time are used to further political interests – leading to inefficient companies and markets, enormous favoritism and corruption.
Support for democratic socialist policies appears to be on the rise in America -- with politicians such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez arguing for a new approach to address America’s ills.Support for democratic socialist policies appears to be on the rise in America -- with politicians such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez arguing for a new approach to address America’s ills.
Dimon isn’t convinced, saying:Dimon isn’t convinced, saying:
As Margaret Thatcher said, “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”As Margaret Thatcher said, “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”
Socialism inevitably produces stagnation, corruption and often worse – such as authoritarian government officials who often have an increasing ability to interfere with both the economy and individual lives – which they frequently do to maintain power. This would be as much a disaster for our country as it has been in the other places it’s been tried.Socialism inevitably produces stagnation, corruption and often worse – such as authoritarian government officials who often have an increasing ability to interfere with both the economy and individual lives – which they frequently do to maintain power. This would be as much a disaster for our country as it has been in the other places it’s been tried.
Critics might point out that the problem with Mrs T’s brand of capitalism is that you run out of other people’s assets to privatise.Critics might point out that the problem with Mrs T’s brand of capitalism is that you run out of other people’s assets to privatise.
I also don’t remember Wall Street hailing the merits of capitalism when the financial crisis struck a decade ago -- maybe they were too busy queuing up for massive bailouts from the US government... (JP Morgan took $25bn of TARP rescue funds, but later claimed it didn’t need it anyway).I also don’t remember Wall Street hailing the merits of capitalism when the financial crisis struck a decade ago -- maybe they were too busy queuing up for massive bailouts from the US government... (JP Morgan took $25bn of TARP rescue funds, but later claimed it didn’t need it anyway).
One of Wall Street’s top bankers has called for America to play a more responsible role in world affairs, and to provide more leadership.One of Wall Street’s top bankers has called for America to play a more responsible role in world affairs, and to provide more leadership.
In an annual letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon warns that one of the biggest uncertainties in the world today is America’s role on the world stage.In an annual letter to shareholders, Jamie Dimon warns that one of the biggest uncertainties in the world today is America’s role on the world stage.
In a barely disguised criticism of Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and the WTO, Dimon writes:In a barely disguised criticism of Donald Trump’s criticism of NATO and the WTO, Dimon writes:
A more secure and more prosperous world is also good for the long-term security and prosperity of the United States. And America’s role in building that more secure world has been and will likely continue to be indispensable.A more secure and more prosperous world is also good for the long-term security and prosperity of the United States. And America’s role in building that more secure world has been and will likely continue to be indispensable.
While there are many legitimate complaints about international organizations (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations), the world is better off with these institutions. America should engage and exercise its power and influence cautiously and judiciously. We should all understand that global laws, standards and norms will be established whether or not our nation participates in setting them. It is certain that we will be happier with the evolution of global standards if we help craft and implement them. We should not abdicate this role. To the contrary, it is critical that America help develop the best global standards in trade, immigration, corporate governance and many other important issues.While there are many legitimate complaints about international organizations (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the World Trade Organization and the United Nations), the world is better off with these institutions. America should engage and exercise its power and influence cautiously and judiciously. We should all understand that global laws, standards and norms will be established whether or not our nation participates in setting them. It is certain that we will be happier with the evolution of global standards if we help craft and implement them. We should not abdicate this role. To the contrary, it is critical that America help develop the best global standards in trade, immigration, corporate governance and many other important issues.
Dimon also makes a pitch to other chief executives, saying they should “take a stand” to help make the world a better place.Dimon also makes a pitch to other chief executives, saying they should “take a stand” to help make the world a better place.
At JPMorgan Chase, we are strengthening our public policy teams to take our advocacy and ideas to the next level....At JPMorgan Chase, we are strengthening our public policy teams to take our advocacy and ideas to the next level....
It’s not enough just for companies to meet the letter and the spirit of the law. They can also aggressively work to improve society.It’s not enough just for companies to meet the letter and the spirit of the law. They can also aggressively work to improve society.
Fine words, of course. But as the FT’s Katie Martin flags up, this zeal didn’t deter JP Morgan from helping Saudi Arabia sell bonds shortly after the shocking murder of Jamal Khashoggi.Fine words, of course. But as the FT’s Katie Martin flags up, this zeal didn’t deter JP Morgan from helping Saudi Arabia sell bonds shortly after the shocking murder of Jamal Khashoggi.
pic.twitter.com/7UThsO7A9zpic.twitter.com/7UThsO7A9z
Despite all the gloomy talk today, Germany’s stock market has now shaken off its losses - and is up slightly on the day.Despite all the gloomy talk today, Germany’s stock market has now shaken off its losses - and is up slightly on the day.
That’s thanks to car makers -- BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are among the top risers this morning, helped by hopes of a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks.That’s thanks to car makers -- BMW, Volkswagen and Daimler are among the top risers this morning, helped by hopes of a breakthrough in the US-China trade talks.
However, industrial groups are weakening - with Thyssenkrupp (whose blast furnace you can see at the top of this blog) down 1.7%.However, industrial groups are weakening - with Thyssenkrupp (whose blast furnace you can see at the top of this blog) down 1.7%.
There’s some speculation that Donald Trump could announce plans for a summit with China’s president Xi later today.There’s some speculation that Donald Trump could announce plans for a summit with China’s president Xi later today.
Trump is due to meet vice premier Liu He at the White House at around 4.30pm East Coast time. If the talks between Liu and US officials have gone well, Trump may conclude that a trade deal is close.Trump is due to meet vice premier Liu He at the White House at around 4.30pm East Coast time. If the talks between Liu and US officials have gone well, Trump may conclude that a trade deal is close.
The Wall Street Journal reports:The Wall Street Journal reports:
An announcement of a summit date is “likely” to come while Trump meets with the Chinese leader’s special envoy, Vice Premier Liu He, at the White House on Thursday, according to an administration official, but discussions remain fluid and those plans could change.An announcement of a summit date is “likely” to come while Trump meets with the Chinese leader’s special envoy, Vice Premier Liu He, at the White House on Thursday, according to an administration official, but discussions remain fluid and those plans could change.
This afternoon, Pres meets again with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, back in DC for another round of US/China trade talks. Progress in the talks could be enough for @POTUS to announce a date for a meeting with Pres Xi Jinping. Pres last met with Liu in February. pic.twitter.com/AM9Tu1sXzCThis afternoon, Pres meets again with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, back in DC for another round of US/China trade talks. Progress in the talks could be enough for @POTUS to announce a date for a meeting with Pres Xi Jinping. Pres last met with Liu in February. pic.twitter.com/AM9Tu1sXzC
The fall in German factory orders in February shows Europe’s largest economy is suffering from increased uncertainty and slowing global growth, say analysts at Oxford Economics.The fall in German factory orders in February shows Europe’s largest economy is suffering from increased uncertainty and slowing global growth, say analysts at Oxford Economics.
They’ve crunched today’s report (showing orders down 4.2% month-on-month, and 8.4% year-on-year), and concluded that this “horrendous” report bodes badly for growth prospects.They’ve crunched today’s report (showing orders down 4.2% month-on-month, and 8.4% year-on-year), and concluded that this “horrendous” report bodes badly for growth prospects.
They say:They say:
Overall, today’s report is clearly negative and represents a clear threat to the short-term outlook for German industry until global growth remerges from the present weakness and the Brexit saga reaches a conclusion.Overall, today’s report is clearly negative and represents a clear threat to the short-term outlook for German industry until global growth remerges from the present weakness and the Brexit saga reaches a conclusion.
At face value, tomorrow’s industrial production data is likely to disappoint our and the market’s expectations of a moderate rise. If it does, a revision of our Q1 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 0.3% is likely.At face value, tomorrow’s industrial production data is likely to disappoint our and the market’s expectations of a moderate rise. If it does, a revision of our Q1 GDP growth forecast from 0.5% to 0.3% is likely.
They also produced these charts, showing how domestic orders for German factory goods held up well, for overseas demand was weak.They also produced these charts, showing how domestic orders for German factory goods held up well, for overseas demand was weak.
Here’s our news story on the latest drop in UK car sales:Here’s our news story on the latest drop in UK car sales:
Sales of new cars fall as UK consumers continue to shun dieselSales of new cars fall as UK consumers continue to shun diesel
Back in the City, shares in Saga - the over-50s insurance and travel specialist - have slumped by a third after a disappointing profits warning.Back in the City, shares in Saga - the over-50s insurance and travel specialist - have slumped by a third after a disappointing profits warning.
Much of the company’s problem stem from its insurance arm. Retail broking profits slumped by 19.1% in 2018, hit by tough competition.Much of the company’s problem stem from its insurance arm. Retail broking profits slumped by 19.1% in 2018, hit by tough competition.
But its holidays arm is also taking a hit, with travel bookings to Europe this year were down 8% from a year earlier.But its holidays arm is also taking a hit, with travel bookings to Europe this year were down 8% from a year earlier.
CEO Lance Batchelor says:CEO Lance Batchelor says:
“Brexit is putting a clear dampener on customers’ willingness to commit to holidays in 2019.”“Brexit is putting a clear dampener on customers’ willingness to commit to holidays in 2019.”
Shares in travel firm Saga slump as it warns Brexit will hit profitsShares in travel firm Saga slump as it warns Brexit will hit profits
In another blow to eurozone spirits, Bloomberg is reporting that the Italian government plans to slash its growth forecast for 2019, from 1% to 0.1%.In another blow to eurozone spirits, Bloomberg is reporting that the Italian government plans to slash its growth forecast for 2019, from 1% to 0.1%.
The slide in German factory orders continues to worry economists and investors - here’s some more reaction:The slide in German factory orders continues to worry economists and investors - here’s some more reaction:
In #Germany, can’t be worse!Depressed manufacturing outlook. -Factory orders plunged y/y by the most since late 2009. -Foreign demand is behind the drop (lowest since 2015). Key to rebalance growth drivers from exports (uncertainty) to domestic demand and #Germany can do it. pic.twitter.com/RJNaVG1JihIn #Germany, can’t be worse!Depressed manufacturing outlook. -Factory orders plunged y/y by the most since late 2009. -Foreign demand is behind the drop (lowest since 2015). Key to rebalance growth drivers from exports (uncertainty) to domestic demand and #Germany can do it. pic.twitter.com/RJNaVG1Jih
In case you missed it earlier.German factory orders data for February missed forecast by a country mile and fell by as much -8.40% in the YoY measure. The chart below (from Trading Economics) shows the monthly data versus manufacturing PMIs.Hmmmm pic.twitter.com/iDdJwe87yhIn case you missed it earlier.German factory orders data for February missed forecast by a country mile and fell by as much -8.40% in the YoY measure. The chart below (from Trading Economics) shows the monthly data versus manufacturing PMIs.Hmmmm pic.twitter.com/iDdJwe87yh
Wow - German Factory Orders plunge 8.4% Y/Y. The estimate was for a decline of just 3.1%. Germany is not bottoming. pic.twitter.com/IC5JIwdWTwWow - German Factory Orders plunge 8.4% Y/Y. The estimate was for a decline of just 3.1%. Germany is not bottoming. pic.twitter.com/IC5JIwdWTw
Speaking of cars.... Tesla’s shares have slumped 7% in pre-market trading in New York, after its latest delivery figures missed expectations.Speaking of cars.... Tesla’s shares have slumped 7% in pre-market trading in New York, after its latest delivery figures missed expectations.
Tesla revealed last night it had only shipped 63,000 new cars in the first quarter of 2019, compared with 90,700 in Q1 2018. It blamed a backlog in getting cars to customers in Europe and China, and admitted that earnings will be below expectations.Tesla revealed last night it had only shipped 63,000 new cars in the first quarter of 2019, compared with 90,700 in Q1 2018. It blamed a backlog in getting cars to customers in Europe and China, and admitted that earnings will be below expectations.
Analysts had expected Tesla to ship around 76,000 vehicles, so this is a blow to hopes that Elon Musk’s firm can crack the mass market.Analysts had expected Tesla to ship around 76,000 vehicles, so this is a blow to hopes that Elon Musk’s firm can crack the mass market.
Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is concerned that customers are shifting to its new, cheaper, Model 3:Nicholas Hyett, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, is concerned that customers are shifting to its new, cheaper, Model 3:
“Lower deliveries were expected this quarter, since export of Model 3s to China and Europe meant more vehicles would inevitably finish the quarter in transit. However, the actual number is worse than the market had hoped for, particularly for the more premium Model S and Model X.“Lower deliveries were expected this quarter, since export of Model 3s to China and Europe meant more vehicles would inevitably finish the quarter in transit. However, the actual number is worse than the market had hoped for, particularly for the more premium Model S and Model X.
Our concern is that demand for Tesla’s premium models has been permanently affected by the cut in subsidies in the US and that sales are being potentially cannibalised by the cheaper Model 3. With the $35,000 Model 3 variant only just hitting the market, the potential for Tesla to undercut its own products is only growing. In theory premium sales could be offset by high volume, low margin Model 3 sales, but Model 3 production has increased only slightly quarter-on-quarter – hardly the ramp up in production some had been expecting.Our concern is that demand for Tesla’s premium models has been permanently affected by the cut in subsidies in the US and that sales are being potentially cannibalised by the cheaper Model 3. With the $35,000 Model 3 variant only just hitting the market, the potential for Tesla to undercut its own products is only growing. In theory premium sales could be offset by high volume, low margin Model 3 sales, but Model 3 production has increased only slightly quarter-on-quarter – hardly the ramp up in production some had been expecting.
Tesla: production slows amid rocky start to the new yearTesla: production slows amid rocky start to the new year
Among the major car makers, Ford sales were down 18.5% in March year-on-year.Among the major car makers, Ford sales were down 18.5% in March year-on-year.
BMW sales fell 4%, Honda lost 15%, and Toyota fell 17%.BMW sales fell 4%, Honda lost 15%, and Toyota fell 17%.
Vauxhall bucked the trend with 2% growth, while Volkswagen sales rose 1%.Vauxhall bucked the trend with 2% growth, while Volkswagen sales rose 1%.