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No-deal Brexit more likely by the day, says Michel Barnier Macron: no-deal still possible despite May's compromise offer
(32 minutes later)
Michel Barnier has said a no-deal Brexit is “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has led other EU leaders in warning that Theresa May’s apparent move to take no deal off the table offers no guarantee that Britain will not crash out of the bloc on 12 April.
The comments from the EU’s chief negotiator were echoed by the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to take into consideration a no-deal possibility - it’s a probability,” the Dutch prime Minister Mark Rutte told reporters. The 27 member states have repeatedly insisted that it expects the withdrawal agreement to be ratified or a new “credible plan” to emerge for it to agree to another Brexit delay when leaders meet at a crunch summit in eight days’ time.
“We are no longer looking for an exit, but rather an emergency exit”, added Luxembourg’s prime minister Xavier Bettel, who was hosting Rutte for no deal talks in the duchy. With the British parliament yet to coalesce around any solution to break the impasse, there is concern in EU capitals that the prime minister, despite her pledge to secure a solution with Jeremy Corbyn, could still arrive at the summit without a clear way forward.
MPs rejection on Monday night of all four potential solutions to the Brexit impasse, and a last ditch attempt by a cross-party group to force Theresa May to extend article 50 to avoid a no deal, has led officials and diplomats in Brussels to conclude that a crash out is all but inevitable. But Donald Tusk, the European council president, tweeted a conciliatory message amid the deepened anxiety. “Even if, after today, we don’t know what the end result will be, let us be patient,” he said.
Speaking in Brussels, Barnier said that it was only a “positive majority” in the Commons in favour of a Brexit plan that could avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April. In a statement following a seven-hour cabinet meeting, the prime minister said she would be seeking a further short Brexit delay to allow new cross-party talks to come to fruition.
The EU’s leaders, including Macron, reflected their concerns on Tuesday that they were being pushed into agreeing to extend article 50, potentially even beyond 22 May, without the bloc’s conditions having been met.
The prime minister has previously sought to delay Brexit until 30 June, a demand had rejected at the last EU summit. The UK is being seen as playing a “blame game”, sources said.
Macron, among others, is determined to avoid the UK remaining in the EU beyond that point unless British MEPs are elected and there is clear sight of a way out of the Brexit logjam.
“A long extension, implying the UK takes part in European elections and European institutions, has nothing easy or automatic about it,” Macron said. “I say that again very strongly. Our priority must be the good functioning of the EU and the single market. The EU can’t be held hostage long-term by the resolution of a political crisis in the UK.”
The French president went on: “The three-times rejection of the withdrawal agreement by the House of Commons and the rejection of all alternative plans now puts us on the path of a UK exit without a deal.”
Macron added: “As the European council decided in March, it’s now up to the UK to present a credible alternative plan backed by a majority before 10 April in order to avoid that. If the UK isn’t capable – almost three years after the referendum – of putting forward a solution that gets a majority, it will have decided itself, de facto, to leave without a deal. And we can’t avoid failure for the UK.”
The Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, who was visiting Macron in Paris, told reporters that the EU would not accept an extension “as just a recipe for further indecision”.
“There seems to be a sense in Westminster that because they voted against no deal, that no deal’s off the table,” he said. “It’s not off the table. A request for extension requires EU unanimity & that is far from guaranteed.”
Earlier in the day, the EU’s chief negotiator had also attempted to build the narrative that no-deal Brexit was “very likely” and becoming more likely by the day after the Commons rejected all the alternative solutions to Theresa May’s deal.
Those comments were echoed by the prime ministers of the Netherlands and Luxembourg. “We have to take into consideration a no-deal possibility - it’s a probability,” the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, told reporters.
“We are no longer looking for an exit, but rather an emergency exit,” added Luxembourg’s Xavier Bettel, who was hosting Rutte for no-deal talks in the duchy.
Speaking in Brussels earlier in the day, Barnier said that it was only a “positive majority” in the Commons in favour of a Brexit plan that could avoid a looming cliff-edge Brexit on 12 April.
“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.”“No deal was never our desired or intended scenario,” Barnier told an audience at a thinktank event. “But the EU27 is now prepared. It becomes, day after day, more likely.”
“This is a serious crisis and no-one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently”, he added. “This is a serious crisis and no one can be pleased with what is happening in the UK currently,” he added.
Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.Three scenarios were set out by the EU official: agreement this week on the prime minister’s deal or a variant of it, no deal, or a long extension to article 50 requiring “a strong justification”.
After Theresa May's statement on Tuesday, she is expected on Wednesday to meet with Jeremy Corbyn to try and agree a way forward that they could both support in the House of Commons. She spelled out that her withdrawal agreement had to be part of the agreement. The agreed plan will then be put to parliament later in the week, and taken to next week’s European Council meeting.After Theresa May's statement on Tuesday, she is expected on Wednesday to meet with Jeremy Corbyn to try and agree a way forward that they could both support in the House of Commons. She spelled out that her withdrawal agreement had to be part of the agreement. The agreed plan will then be put to parliament later in the week, and taken to next week’s European Council meeting.
If they could not, she said, agree a way forward, parliament may be offered a chance to choose between a series of options for the future relationship. She said the government would be bound by what the house decides – but only if Labour was too.If they could not, she said, agree a way forward, parliament may be offered a chance to choose between a series of options for the future relationship. She said the government would be bound by what the house decides – but only if Labour was too.
If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this.If the UK parliament or government have significantly changed position, then a lengthy Article 50 extension may be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit on this date. Negotiator Michel Barnier has suggested there might be three reasons for the EU to grant a long extension: for a second referendum, a general election, or because parliament wants to again examine the political declaration. But there's no guarantee the EU27 would unanimously agree to this.
If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. However she appears to have ruled out allowing this to happen.If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other significant developments, this would be the date by international law that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. However she appears to have ruled out allowing this to happen.
If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU.If Theresa May's new proposal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU.
Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday.Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. However, if Brexit has been further delayed, the UK would hold European elections on the Thursday.
If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 May, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. There has been some suggestion though that she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October.
Such is the frustration in EU capitals at the failure of Westminster to coalesce around a vision of its post-Brexit future that it increasingly appears that a lengthy delay beyond 22 May can only be guaranteed in the event of a general election or a second referendum.
Barnier said an extension beyond the end of May, requiring the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”.Barnier said an extension beyond the end of May, requiring the UK to take part in European parliamentary elections, “would carry significant risks for the EU and therefore strong justification would be needed”.
He said businesses in the EU had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”.He said businesses in the EU had warned Brussels “against the cost of extending uncertainty”. The UK prolonging its status as a member state while still seeking to leave with a negotiated deal “could pose a risk on our decision-making autonomy”.
“The option of no deal looks very likely’, Barnier later added. “The option of no deal looks very likely,” Barnier later added.
On Monday night, all the Brexit options put to the Commons were rejected by MPs, although by small margins, raising some hope that a solution might be found later in the week. But for all Barnier’s rhetoric and the claims in EU capitals, sources said that there was immense concern that the 27, on the cusp of European elections, could be seen to have pushed a member state out of the bloc.
Barnier pointed out that the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, said on Monday that the EU’s patience had reached its limit. “Personally, as the negotiator, I have some patience left…We are a little bit from the end, we still have a little bit of patience.”
The customs union motion tabled by the Conservative former chancellor Ken Clarke was voted down by a margin of only three votes, 273 to 276, while a second Brexit referendum fell short of a majority by 12 votes.
A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole.A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole.
For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements.
Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union.Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union.
Jennifer RankinJennifer Rankin
The Norway-style “common market 2.0” deal championed by Nick Boles, who later dramatically resigned the Conservative party whip, was also rejected, by 261 votes to 282. Barnier admitted that the EU’s leaders would have to judge whether it was in their interests to continue to allow Westminster to drag out the process.
Barnier said he expected MPs are to attempt to hold indicative votes again by the end of the week, with the options likely to have been narrowed further. Should parliament back a customs union, swift changes to the political declaration on the future relationship with the EU could be made. “Is it for organising a new referendum? Is it for organising snap elections? Is it because the House of Commons needs time to go in the details of this negotiation of the political declaration? I don’t know,” he said. “We are ready. But my role is to say there is a cost and you have to make a balance between the different costs – the cost of a no-deal by accident, the cost of a deal in longer time or the cost of a long prolongation.”
“You will have noticed last night that the proposal to reach an agreement on a customs with the EU was lost just by three votes”, Barnier said.
This soft Brexit compromise has been championed as a plan B for leaving the European Union.
It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA).
The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal.
The option has the advantage of being as close to the EU as possible without full membership, and it would do away with the need for the problematic backstop for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the UK would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies, and would not be subject to the European court of justice.
But it crosses a key red line for Brexiters by continuing freedom of movement, one of the preconditions of single market membership. It would also limit the UK's ability to negotiate its own trade deals while a new customs arrangement is under discussion. And it would require continued financial contributions to the EU without an influence, as the UK would no longer have MEPs or a seat on the European Council. It also isn't entirely clear that the UK would be welcomed into Efta.
“We’ve always said we can accept a customs union or a relationship along the style of the Norway model,” he said. “The political declaration can accommodate this today.”
But later on Tuesday it emerged that a new round of indicative votes will not now take place on Wednesday. A group of MPs led by the former cabinet minister, Yvette Cooper, are instead going to try and force the prime minister to extend article 50 purely to avoid a no deal.
Barnier said that the leaders would have to judge whether it was in their interests to continue to allow Westminster to drag out the process. “Is it for organising a new referendum, is it for organising snap elections, is it because the House of Commons needs time to go in the details of this negotiation of the Political Declaration, I don’t know”, he said. “We are ready. But my role is to say there is a cost and you have to make a balance between the different costs - the cost of a no deal by accident, the cost of a deal in longer time or the cost of a long prolongation.”
He made clear that in the event of a long extension of article 50, the EU would not open negotiations on the future trade deal, which it has maintained can only happen after the withdrawal agreement is settled.
In the case of a no-deal Brexit, he said he would expect the UK to try to return to the negotiating table a few months later, but “in that case the withdrawal agreement we put on the table at the beginning of this negotiation will be still here: citizens’ rights, Ireland, financial obligations”.
“During any long extension there will be no renegotiation of the Brexit withdrawal agreement, no, never,” Barnier told an audience at the European Policy Centre event. “There will be no negotiation about the future relations – we cannot, legally speaking, negotiate with a member state about the future relations. It’s as simple as that.”
“A lack of deal means a lack of faith, a lack of deal means a rupture in confidence between us”, he said. “And I think we have to have confidence in order to build the future relationship.”
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
Michel BarnierMichel Barnier
Article 50Article 50
Foreign policyForeign policy
EuropeEurope
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