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The One Clear Thing About Thailand’s Very Messy Election ‘We Are Grown-Up Now and Can Choose for Ourselves’
(about 3 hours later)
Thailand’s election last Sunday — the first in eight years and since the military deposed a democratically elected government in 2014 — was expected to be a tough fight. But the high-stakes contest has also turned out to be exceptionally fraught and dramatic, and the fallout promises to be as well.Thailand’s election last Sunday — the first in eight years and since the military deposed a democratically elected government in 2014 — was expected to be a tough fight. But the high-stakes contest has also turned out to be exceptionally fraught and dramatic, and the fallout promises to be as well.
On Sunday night, after the polls had closed, the election commission first released inconsistent results — before it stopped releasing results altogether. Then it repeatedly delayed making a further announcement. Based on partial, preliminary returns, the junta’s proxy party claims to have won the most votes. But Pheu Thai, the leading pro-democracy party, says it has won the most seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.On Sunday night, after the polls had closed, the election commission first released inconsistent results — before it stopped releasing results altogether. Then it repeatedly delayed making a further announcement. Based on partial, preliminary returns, the junta’s proxy party claims to have won the most votes. But Pheu Thai, the leading pro-democracy party, says it has won the most seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
Yet the real winner of the election — in terms of both immediate surprise and long-term significance — is the brand-new, youth-oriented Future Forward, which cast itself as the party of liberal values and political dissent. It appears to have come in third. And perhaps for just that reason, it may soon be in trouble.Yet the real winner of the election — in terms of both immediate surprise and long-term significance — is the brand-new, youth-oriented Future Forward, which cast itself as the party of liberal values and political dissent. It appears to have come in third. And perhaps for just that reason, it may soon be in trouble.
On March 17, in a leafy corner of a university campus close to the royal palace in Bangkok, a tall and skinny 40-year-old man with short, spiky hair was surrounded by fans clamoring for selfies and autographs. This was no Korean pop star; it was Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a billionaire claiming to stand for the 99 percent, who has become Thailand’s first social-media celebrity politician — a combination of heartthrob and giant-slaying hero.On March 17, in a leafy corner of a university campus close to the royal palace in Bangkok, a tall and skinny 40-year-old man with short, spiky hair was surrounded by fans clamoring for selfies and autographs. This was no Korean pop star; it was Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a billionaire claiming to stand for the 99 percent, who has become Thailand’s first social-media celebrity politician — a combination of heartthrob and giant-slaying hero.
During the campaign, Mr. Thanathorn deployed surprisingly assertive, progressive rhetoric. He called for ending conscription and reducing the military budget and the number of generals. During a live TV debate with the leaders of four other parties recently, he challenged the chief of the army by name, asking him if he would dare to storm the House of Representatives. “Would you shoot us, all 500 of us?” he asked.During the campaign, Mr. Thanathorn deployed surprisingly assertive, progressive rhetoric. He called for ending conscription and reducing the military budget and the number of generals. During a live TV debate with the leaders of four other parties recently, he challenged the chief of the army by name, asking him if he would dare to storm the House of Representatives. “Would you shoot us, all 500 of us?” he asked.
Thai politicians do not usually talk like this. A leading member of Future Forward told me last year that the party had been set up “to oppose hierarchism.” And Mr. Thanathorn’s outspoken but carefully calibrated defiance has struck a chord, especially, it seems, among younger voters. Of the 52 million Thais eligible to vote on Sunday, an estimated 7 million were first-timers.Thai politicians do not usually talk like this. A leading member of Future Forward told me last year that the party had been set up “to oppose hierarchism.” And Mr. Thanathorn’s outspoken but carefully calibrated defiance has struck a chord, especially, it seems, among younger voters. Of the 52 million Thais eligible to vote on Sunday, an estimated 7 million were first-timers.
Since 2001, elections in Thailand have essentially been titanic clashes between, on the one hand, parties associated with the military and the traditional elite, notably the Democrat Party, and, on the other hand, parties linked to the controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — a telecommunications magnate who has managed to dominate the political scene even since going into self-imposed exile over a decade ago, after a conviction on corruption-related charges. The first camp appeals to the more affluent areas around Bangkok in the south, while pro-Thaksin parties are most popular in the poorer, populous north and northeast.Since 2001, elections in Thailand have essentially been titanic clashes between, on the one hand, parties associated with the military and the traditional elite, notably the Democrat Party, and, on the other hand, parties linked to the controversial former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra — a telecommunications magnate who has managed to dominate the political scene even since going into self-imposed exile over a decade ago, after a conviction on corruption-related charges. The first camp appeals to the more affluent areas around Bangkok in the south, while pro-Thaksin parties are most popular in the poorer, populous north and northeast.
This year again, the main showdown was between Pheu Thai, a descendant of Mr. Thaksin’s own party, and Palang Pracharat, a pragmatic alliance of conservative politicians and military officers widely seen as a vehicle to keep Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the leader of the 2014 coup, in power.This year again, the main showdown was between Pheu Thai, a descendant of Mr. Thaksin’s own party, and Palang Pracharat, a pragmatic alliance of conservative politicians and military officers widely seen as a vehicle to keep Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, the leader of the 2014 coup, in power.
Yet the more significant outcome of the election may be its secondary results: the old-time Democrats’ very poor showing and the fledgling Future Forward’s unexpectedly good returns. Familiar forces may continue to dominate the political landscape, but it also has resolutely changed. Traditional elites of all persuasions are losing touch, and traction.Yet the more significant outcome of the election may be its secondary results: the old-time Democrats’ very poor showing and the fledgling Future Forward’s unexpectedly good returns. Familiar forces may continue to dominate the political landscape, but it also has resolutely changed. Traditional elites of all persuasions are losing touch, and traction.
In early February, another, smaller, Thaksin-linked party, Thai Raksa Chart, nominated the king’s older sister, Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi, as its candidate for prime minister. A firestorm of speculation erupted on social media about why and at whose urging — until King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun declared that any royal involvement in politics was inappropriate. Ms. Ubolratana promptly withdrew her candidacy and Thai Raksa Chart was dissolved — a turn of events that weakened Pheu Thai, which had joined forces with Thai Raksa Chart and agreed not to compete with it in some constituencies.In early February, another, smaller, Thaksin-linked party, Thai Raksa Chart, nominated the king’s older sister, Ubolratana Rajakanya Sirivadhana Varnavadi, as its candidate for prime minister. A firestorm of speculation erupted on social media about why and at whose urging — until King Maha Vajiralongkorn Bodindradebayavarangkun declared that any royal involvement in politics was inappropriate. Ms. Ubolratana promptly withdrew her candidacy and Thai Raksa Chart was dissolved — a turn of events that weakened Pheu Thai, which had joined forces with Thai Raksa Chart and agreed not to compete with it in some constituencies.
Mr. Thaksin hit back with an astonishing piece of showmanship. Just two days before the election, he hosted in Hong Kong a ritzy wedding party for his youngest daughter that featured Ms. Ubolratana as guest of honor. Photos showing Mr. Thaksin and Ms. Ubolratana together promptly circulated online.Mr. Thaksin hit back with an astonishing piece of showmanship. Just two days before the election, he hosted in Hong Kong a ritzy wedding party for his youngest daughter that featured Ms. Ubolratana as guest of honor. Photos showing Mr. Thaksin and Ms. Ubolratana together promptly circulated online.
The following night — the eve of the election — King Vajiralongkorn issued another royal statement. Quoting his late father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, he urged Thais to select “good people” to rule Thailand, in the name of “harmony, national security and the people’s happiness.” The message was widely interpreted as a rebuke of Mr. Thaksin and an implicit call to endorse parties aligned with the junta.The following night — the eve of the election — King Vajiralongkorn issued another royal statement. Quoting his late father, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, he urged Thais to select “good people” to rule Thailand, in the name of “harmony, national security and the people’s happiness.” The message was widely interpreted as a rebuke of Mr. Thaksin and an implicit call to endorse parties aligned with the junta.
A hashtag that translates as “We are grown-up now and can choose for ourselves” soon went viral. The establishment had chastised the young, and now the young were pushing back against paternalism. On the morning of the election, in Ubon Ratchathani, a midsize city in the northeast, a first-time voter told me, grinning, that he did indeed plan to vote for “someone good” — meaning, Mr. Thanathorn.A hashtag that translates as “We are grown-up now and can choose for ourselves” soon went viral. The establishment had chastised the young, and now the young were pushing back against paternalism. On the morning of the election, in Ubon Ratchathani, a midsize city in the northeast, a first-time voter told me, grinning, that he did indeed plan to vote for “someone good” — meaning, Mr. Thanathorn.
The face of Thailand’s next government is likely to remain unclear for a while. On Wednesday, seven pro-democracy parties, including Pheu Thai and Future Forward, announced that since the “democratic front” they form had won a majority of the lower house, it should get to select Thailand’s next leader. (The prime minister is chosen by a majority vote of the full Legislature, with includes the 500 elected members of the House of Representatives and 250 military-appointed senators.)The face of Thailand’s next government is likely to remain unclear for a while. On Wednesday, seven pro-democracy parties, including Pheu Thai and Future Forward, announced that since the “democratic front” they form had won a majority of the lower house, it should get to select Thailand’s next leader. (The prime minister is chosen by a majority vote of the full Legislature, with includes the 500 elected members of the House of Representatives and 250 military-appointed senators.)
The election commission released partial results on Thursday, but only for 350 of the 500 seats contested; the remaining 150 are to be allocated according to a complicated formula based on each party’s showing overall. No final, complete results are expected until after King Vajiralongkorn’s coronation in early May.The election commission released partial results on Thursday, but only for 350 of the 500 seats contested; the remaining 150 are to be allocated according to a complicated formula based on each party’s showing overall. No final, complete results are expected until after King Vajiralongkorn’s coronation in early May.
More legal challenges could soon engulf the pro-democracy parties. The police have accused Mr. Thanathorn, and two of his colleagues at Future Forward, of “spreading false information online” — a charge that carries a sentence of up to five years in prison. A lawsuit could endanger his entire party.More legal challenges could soon engulf the pro-democracy parties. The police have accused Mr. Thanathorn, and two of his colleagues at Future Forward, of “spreading false information online” — a charge that carries a sentence of up to five years in prison. A lawsuit could endanger his entire party.
But whatever happens next to Future Forward, its showing in this week’s election was remarkable. And that performance has laid bare yet another fracture in an already very divided political scene: a major generation gap. Any attempt by the establishment to suppress the youthful idealism of Thailand’s new voters could be a dangerous miscalculation.But whatever happens next to Future Forward, its showing in this week’s election was remarkable. And that performance has laid bare yet another fracture in an already very divided political scene: a major generation gap. Any attempt by the establishment to suppress the youthful idealism of Thailand’s new voters could be a dangerous miscalculation.
Duncan McCargo is a professor of political science at the University of Leeds and a visiting professor at Columbia University.Duncan McCargo is a professor of political science at the University of Leeds and a visiting professor at Columbia University.
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