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| Before a Crucial Brexit Vote, Bad News for Theresa May | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union was hanging by a thread on Tuesday after the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said that last-minute pledges from the bloc did not fundamentally alter the legal status of the agreement that pro-Brexit lawmakers find so objectionable. | LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan for Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union was hanging by a thread on Tuesday after the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said that last-minute pledges from the bloc did not fundamentally alter the legal status of the agreement that pro-Brexit lawmakers find so objectionable. |
| As Mr. Cox’s opinion reverberated through British politics, Mrs. May suffered another damaging loss when legal analysts for the influential European Research Group, a cohort of Conservative, pro-Brexit lawmakers, said they would “not recommend accepting the government’s motion today.” | |
| The 10 lawmakers from Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, whose support allowed Mrs. May to form a government, also announced their opposition to her plan. | |
| That made the defeat of Mrs. May’s plan all but certain, analysts said, with the only remaining question being its severity. Taken together, the body blows to the government threw Britain into a new period of political uncertainty, raising the possibility of Parliament trying to take control of the process in a further diminishing of Mrs. May’s shaky authority. | That made the defeat of Mrs. May’s plan all but certain, analysts said, with the only remaining question being its severity. Taken together, the body blows to the government threw Britain into a new period of political uncertainty, raising the possibility of Parliament trying to take control of the process in a further diminishing of Mrs. May’s shaky authority. |
| In another ominous sign, Mrs. May spoke in a painfully hoarse and croaking voice as she addressed Parliament, where there was a visible lack of support from her own benches, which were less than full. | |
| In explaining his decision, Mr. Cox said the concessions from the bloc did “reduce the risk” of Britain being trapped indefinitely in the so-called Irish backstop — an insurance policy against a hard border in Ireland that is a central issue for opponents of Mrs. May’s deal. | |
| But he said that the understanding did not alter the two parties’ rights and obligations. Even under the new terms, Britain would have “no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement,” he said. | But he said that the understanding did not alter the two parties’ rights and obligations. Even under the new terms, Britain would have “no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement,” he said. |
| Reaction in Brussels was generally muted. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said that the bloc had gone as far as it could to accommodate Britain. | Reaction in Brussels was generally muted. Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany said that the bloc had gone as far as it could to accommodate Britain. |
| “Clear, far-reaching proposals have been made that take into account the concerns of Britain and that seek to find answers to them,” Mrs. Merkel said, adding that it was now up to the British Parliament to decide how to go forward. | “Clear, far-reaching proposals have been made that take into account the concerns of Britain and that seek to find answers to them,” Mrs. Merkel said, adding that it was now up to the British Parliament to decide how to go forward. |
| Mrs. May had flown to Strasbourg, France, on Monday to negotiate changes to the withdrawal agreement, hoping to win concessions that would persuade British lawmakers to reverse the overwhelming rejection of the deal they delivered in January. | Mrs. May had flown to Strasbourg, France, on Monday to negotiate changes to the withdrawal agreement, hoping to win concessions that would persuade British lawmakers to reverse the overwhelming rejection of the deal they delivered in January. |
| The assurances she obtained were intended to help bridge the gap on the confusing and thus far intractable issue of the border between Ireland, which is a member of the European Union, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, but it was unclear whether her efforts would be sufficient. | The assurances she obtained were intended to help bridge the gap on the confusing and thus far intractable issue of the border between Ireland, which is a member of the European Union, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, but it was unclear whether her efforts would be sufficient. |
| Speaking late Monday in Strasbourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, warned that the British could not expect any further concessions. “There will be no further interpretation of the interpretation,” he said. “No further assurances on the reassurances if the meaningful vote fails tomorrow.” | Speaking late Monday in Strasbourg, Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, warned that the British could not expect any further concessions. “There will be no further interpretation of the interpretation,” he said. “No further assurances on the reassurances if the meaningful vote fails tomorrow.” |
| The 650-seat British Parliament, which rejected Mrs. May’s previous deal by 230 votes, is scheduled to vote on the revised agreement around 7 p.m. in London. At stake is the fate of the withdrawal agreement and a political declaration that would allow Britain to leave the bloc on March 29 with a standstill transition period, during which very little would change until the end of 2020. | The 650-seat British Parliament, which rejected Mrs. May’s previous deal by 230 votes, is scheduled to vote on the revised agreement around 7 p.m. in London. At stake is the fate of the withdrawal agreement and a political declaration that would allow Britain to leave the bloc on March 29 with a standstill transition period, during which very little would change until the end of 2020. |
| Late on Monday, Mrs. May’s de facto deputy, David Lidington, appealed to Parliament to endorse the proposals, arguing that the alternative would be to “plunge this country into a political crisis.” | Late on Monday, Mrs. May’s de facto deputy, David Lidington, appealed to Parliament to endorse the proposals, arguing that the alternative would be to “plunge this country into a political crisis.” |
| If Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement — the so-called no-deal Brexit — the consequences could be dire, with fears of clogged ports and shortages of some food and medicine. | If Britain leaves the European Union without an agreement — the so-called no-deal Brexit — the consequences could be dire, with fears of clogged ports and shortages of some food and medicine. |
| British lawmakers have been promised that, if they reject Mrs. May’s plans on Tuesday, they will be offered two more votes later this week. The first vote would allow lawmakers to formally state that they oppose a no-deal Brexit. | British lawmakers have been promised that, if they reject Mrs. May’s plans on Tuesday, they will be offered two more votes later this week. The first vote would allow lawmakers to formally state that they oppose a no-deal Brexit. |
| A majority of lawmakers do not want Britain to leave the European Union without an agreement, and if they reject the idea of departing under a no-deal scenario, they would then have the opportunity to instruct Mrs. May to seek a postponement of the March 29 exit date. | A majority of lawmakers do not want Britain to leave the European Union without an agreement, and if they reject the idea of departing under a no-deal scenario, they would then have the opportunity to instruct Mrs. May to seek a postponement of the March 29 exit date. |
| The assurances offered by Mr. Juncker were designed to reassure pro-Brexit lawmakers who fear that Britain could be trapped indefinitely inside parts of the European Union’s economic rule book and prevented from striking independent trade deals. | The assurances offered by Mr. Juncker were designed to reassure pro-Brexit lawmakers who fear that Britain could be trapped indefinitely inside parts of the European Union’s economic rule book and prevented from striking independent trade deals. |
| The new pledges in the “joint instrument” clarified the temporary nature of the Irish backstop provision, which is part of the withdrawal agreement. The European Union has demanded the backstop as an insurance policy to prevent the creation of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. | The new pledges in the “joint instrument” clarified the temporary nature of the Irish backstop provision, which is part of the withdrawal agreement. The European Union has demanded the backstop as an insurance policy to prevent the creation of a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. |
| Mr. Juncker said that the latest legal tweak “complements the withdrawal agreement without reopening it.” That proved not to be enough for pro-Brexit lawmakers, who have pushed for the backstop to be eliminated completely or for Britain to be given a time limit or the right to abandon it unilaterally. | Mr. Juncker said that the latest legal tweak “complements the withdrawal agreement without reopening it.” That proved not to be enough for pro-Brexit lawmakers, who have pushed for the backstop to be eliminated completely or for Britain to be given a time limit or the right to abandon it unilaterally. |
| But the assurances did give a clearer picture of how Britain might be able to exit the backstop if there were an impasse over the matter. | But the assurances did give a clearer picture of how Britain might be able to exit the backstop if there were an impasse over the matter. |
| Iain Duncan Smith, a pro-Brexit lawmaker and former Conservative Party leader, told the BBC that a panel of euroskeptic legal experts would consider the plans and determine whether they matched Mrs. May’s claims. | Iain Duncan Smith, a pro-Brexit lawmaker and former Conservative Party leader, told the BBC that a panel of euroskeptic legal experts would consider the plans and determine whether they matched Mrs. May’s claims. |
| But he also appealed for more time to consider the legal niceties. “I certainly think an extra day would help enormously,” he said. | But he also appealed for more time to consider the legal niceties. “I certainly think an extra day would help enormously,” he said. |