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| The sharks are already circling as May struggles to keep her Brexit afloat | The sharks are already circling as May struggles to keep her Brexit afloat |
| (17 days later) | |
| Theresa May’s slow-roast Brexit deal returns to the Commons next week for another stir of the pot. The withdrawal agreement has the whiff of something that has hung around too long to sharpen appetites. For all the bravado she has shown, she starts the new year with the same problem that haunted her premiership in the old one. The prime minister has shown her strength in withstanding Rocky Marciano levels of punishment – and still being there the next day. But she has not persuaded a large number of colleagues, who told whips that they would not support her in early December, to do so before Brexit has to be suspended or a more dramatic exit beckons. | Theresa May’s slow-roast Brexit deal returns to the Commons next week for another stir of the pot. The withdrawal agreement has the whiff of something that has hung around too long to sharpen appetites. For all the bravado she has shown, she starts the new year with the same problem that haunted her premiership in the old one. The prime minister has shown her strength in withstanding Rocky Marciano levels of punishment – and still being there the next day. But she has not persuaded a large number of colleagues, who told whips that they would not support her in early December, to do so before Brexit has to be suspended or a more dramatic exit beckons. |
| Hardly anyone close to May expects her to triumph when the postponed vote is reconvened. The best she can hope for is that the result will show momentum towards her position, putting pressure back on parliament to come to a decisive view on the alternatives. Only at that point, predicts one senior cabinet figure, will “something akin to the deal” have a chance of success. | Hardly anyone close to May expects her to triumph when the postponed vote is reconvened. The best she can hope for is that the result will show momentum towards her position, putting pressure back on parliament to come to a decisive view on the alternatives. Only at that point, predicts one senior cabinet figure, will “something akin to the deal” have a chance of success. |
| Still, the grey lady remains in Number 10, thwarting many predictions of mortality. Faced with the old jibe that she is “in office but not in power”, the PM’s implied answer is that she would still much rather be in office than not. It is, alas, too late to hope for a change in her modus operandi. One ally notes that her ongoing talks with the EU on any possible tweak to the phrasing of the Irish backstop are still conducted “in a tunnel”, reflecting her fear of leaks and a low level of trust around the cabinet table. | Still, the grey lady remains in Number 10, thwarting many predictions of mortality. Faced with the old jibe that she is “in office but not in power”, the PM’s implied answer is that she would still much rather be in office than not. It is, alas, too late to hope for a change in her modus operandi. One ally notes that her ongoing talks with the EU on any possible tweak to the phrasing of the Irish backstop are still conducted “in a tunnel”, reflecting her fear of leaks and a low level of trust around the cabinet table. |
| No-deal Brexit will raise food prices, says Michael Gove | No-deal Brexit will raise food prices, says Michael Gove |
| The pressure of hasty preparation for a no-deal outcome has added another layer of irritation. Annoyance over the revelation of spending more than £100m on ferry contracts to ease congestion at ports demonstrates the world of pain any no-deal scenario holds for the government. The Brexit menu, so decisively offered in 2016, has turned into a series of mushy dishes with various ingredients chucked in and fished out at the last moment. The optimistic case (from Number 10’s position) is that more pro-Leave MPs fear “losing” Brexit. Team May believes that parts of the hardline Eurosceptic bloc of up to 50 MPs have become less adamantine. A source close to the European Research Group tells me that the impact of Jeremy Corbyn’s shroud-waving of a vote of no confidence in the government before Christmas helped “warm up” relations between Downing Street and the ERG and Democratic Unionists on whose votes the government relies for survival. | The pressure of hasty preparation for a no-deal outcome has added another layer of irritation. Annoyance over the revelation of spending more than £100m on ferry contracts to ease congestion at ports demonstrates the world of pain any no-deal scenario holds for the government. The Brexit menu, so decisively offered in 2016, has turned into a series of mushy dishes with various ingredients chucked in and fished out at the last moment. The optimistic case (from Number 10’s position) is that more pro-Leave MPs fear “losing” Brexit. Team May believes that parts of the hardline Eurosceptic bloc of up to 50 MPs have become less adamantine. A source close to the European Research Group tells me that the impact of Jeremy Corbyn’s shroud-waving of a vote of no confidence in the government before Christmas helped “warm up” relations between Downing Street and the ERG and Democratic Unionists on whose votes the government relies for survival. |
| Some Brexiters are “looking for the ladder down which to climb”. A New Year knighthood for John Redwood, a persistent Eurosceptic since the 1990s, and elevation of three more Brexiters to the privy council is intended to sweeten Leavers’ mood. Others might be prevailed upon to reconsider, when parliament moves to weighing up the alternatives. | Some Brexiters are “looking for the ladder down which to climb”. A New Year knighthood for John Redwood, a persistent Eurosceptic since the 1990s, and elevation of three more Brexiters to the privy council is intended to sweeten Leavers’ mood. Others might be prevailed upon to reconsider, when parliament moves to weighing up the alternatives. |
| There are, however, two reasons why May-mentum might falter. The first is the oldest in the marketing textbook: rebranding a not-good-enough product as better value than the other bad products around has a low rate of success. The second is that, while support in parliament for a second referendum is much lower than its advocates would like, more pro-Remain MPs grudgingly admit that it might nonetheless be an option. I still find it hard to see enough Labour MPs in strong Leave seats moving in this direction, while many frontbench figures of the soft left, from Angela Rayner to John Healey, clearly remain unconvinced and Leave seats are the main targets for Corbyn in a general election. But if May cannot advance the prospects of her deal with any confidence next month, second referendum proponents will at least get a chance to test out whether the ground is shifting in their favour. | There are, however, two reasons why May-mentum might falter. The first is the oldest in the marketing textbook: rebranding a not-good-enough product as better value than the other bad products around has a low rate of success. The second is that, while support in parliament for a second referendum is much lower than its advocates would like, more pro-Remain MPs grudgingly admit that it might nonetheless be an option. I still find it hard to see enough Labour MPs in strong Leave seats moving in this direction, while many frontbench figures of the soft left, from Angela Rayner to John Healey, clearly remain unconvinced and Leave seats are the main targets for Corbyn in a general election. But if May cannot advance the prospects of her deal with any confidence next month, second referendum proponents will at least get a chance to test out whether the ground is shifting in their favour. |
| While this pot bubbles, Tory MPs and constituency members have spent the break preoccupied with the small matter of who will lead them towards the next general election now that May has reluctantly indicated that she will not do so. Likely cabinet players in a leadership contest are engaged in the acrobatic challenge of supporting the PM while preparing for a succession at some vague but not too distant point. (Invariably, they refer to “the prime minister”, as if they had only just made her acquaintance, rather than “Theresa” – this is not a group that has grown warmer towards its leader in adversity.) | While this pot bubbles, Tory MPs and constituency members have spent the break preoccupied with the small matter of who will lead them towards the next general election now that May has reluctantly indicated that she will not do so. Likely cabinet players in a leadership contest are engaged in the acrobatic challenge of supporting the PM while preparing for a succession at some vague but not too distant point. (Invariably, they refer to “the prime minister”, as if they had only just made her acquaintance, rather than “Theresa” – this is not a group that has grown warmer towards its leader in adversity.) |
| The positions of three of the Tory wise – or at least calculating – men preparing for this moment is instructive. Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Michael Gove all have realistic chances and nuance their Brexit stances accordingly. For these purposes, we can leave aside Boris Johnson’s bid, which, while not impossible, is positioned so firmly on hard Brexit territory that it would require a no-deal scenario to get off the ground with brio. | The positions of three of the Tory wise – or at least calculating – men preparing for this moment is instructive. Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Michael Gove all have realistic chances and nuance their Brexit stances accordingly. For these purposes, we can leave aside Boris Johnson’s bid, which, while not impossible, is positioned so firmly on hard Brexit territory that it would require a no-deal scenario to get off the ground with brio. |
| Jeremy Hunt orders global review into persecution of Christians | Jeremy Hunt orders global review into persecution of Christians |
| Some might wonder why I put Hunt at the top of the list. A long record as health secretary, business background and calm temperament would allow him to claim the mantle of expertise (which is back in vogue, it seems) in dealing with spending constraints and problem-solving. The disadvantages include a tendency to “disappear into the job”, as a former aide puts it. Avoiding the limelight to take the heat out of rows about the NHS led to such a low profile outside Westminster that the most many people remember about the foreign secretary is that he once confused his Chinese wife for a Japanese one. He now tells this joke against himself, beating everyone else to it. | Some might wonder why I put Hunt at the top of the list. A long record as health secretary, business background and calm temperament would allow him to claim the mantle of expertise (which is back in vogue, it seems) in dealing with spending constraints and problem-solving. The disadvantages include a tendency to “disappear into the job”, as a former aide puts it. Avoiding the limelight to take the heat out of rows about the NHS led to such a low profile outside Westminster that the most many people remember about the foreign secretary is that he once confused his Chinese wife for a Japanese one. He now tells this joke against himself, beating everyone else to it. |
| The flirtation of these hopefuls with the right of the party grows more apparent by the day. Hunt filled the (very) vacant Christmas holiday initiatives slot with an announcement of a whistlestop review of the persecution of Christians across the world. A serious matter and a neglected one, particularly for those bearing the brunt of radical Islamist attacks on Christians in Pakistan and the Middle East. In domestic political terms, though, it appeals to those who feel that too much attention goes on more politically correct causes and underlines an empathy with western Christian identity, falling neatly into territory that liberals cannot decry, but which appeals to sensibilities on the cultural rightwing of conservatism. | The flirtation of these hopefuls with the right of the party grows more apparent by the day. Hunt filled the (very) vacant Christmas holiday initiatives slot with an announcement of a whistlestop review of the persecution of Christians across the world. A serious matter and a neglected one, particularly for those bearing the brunt of radical Islamist attacks on Christians in Pakistan and the Middle East. In domestic political terms, though, it appeals to those who feel that too much attention goes on more politically correct causes and underlines an empathy with western Christian identity, falling neatly into territory that liberals cannot decry, but which appeals to sensibilities on the cultural rightwing of conservatism. |
| Hunt and Javid are the two ministers jostling most openly for prominence, but both struggle with the mantle of being former Remain voters treated with suspicion by Tory Leavers at the grassroots. Javid, like Hunt, is seeking ways to define himself. Having learned as business secretary the dangers of staying on holiday when the Port Talbot steelworker jobs were threatened in 2016, he raced back last week to issue reassurances that the matter of migrant boats in the Channel would be taken seriously. On the kind of issue that can whip up Tory nationalists, Javid is determined not to be seen missing in action. | Hunt and Javid are the two ministers jostling most openly for prominence, but both struggle with the mantle of being former Remain voters treated with suspicion by Tory Leavers at the grassroots. Javid, like Hunt, is seeking ways to define himself. Having learned as business secretary the dangers of staying on holiday when the Port Talbot steelworker jobs were threatened in 2016, he raced back last week to issue reassurances that the matter of migrant boats in the Channel would be taken seriously. On the kind of issue that can whip up Tory nationalists, Javid is determined not to be seen missing in action. |
| This leaves Michael Gove as the cabinet’s “dark horse”. As a convinced Brexiter, he has won pragmatic points for counselling in private against the risks of no-deal Brexit, raising the prospect of a balanced ticket with, say, Amber Rudd representing the interests and instincts of the Tory left wing. (Gove’s interest in environmental matters, whales and beavers signals his desire to move beyond the traditional preoccupations of the right.) It’s still not clear whether he aspires to Number 10 as strongly as Javid or Hunt. My hunch is that he might be happier in one of the big offices of state with a strong policy influence, say foreign secretary or chancellor. But races have a way of bringing out the latent desire for power in those who have tolerated the May ascendency and see that the next chapter of the Tory party’s story will be the terms on which it shapes up to fight Corbynite Labour. | This leaves Michael Gove as the cabinet’s “dark horse”. As a convinced Brexiter, he has won pragmatic points for counselling in private against the risks of no-deal Brexit, raising the prospect of a balanced ticket with, say, Amber Rudd representing the interests and instincts of the Tory left wing. (Gove’s interest in environmental matters, whales and beavers signals his desire to move beyond the traditional preoccupations of the right.) It’s still not clear whether he aspires to Number 10 as strongly as Javid or Hunt. My hunch is that he might be happier in one of the big offices of state with a strong policy influence, say foreign secretary or chancellor. But races have a way of bringing out the latent desire for power in those who have tolerated the May ascendency and see that the next chapter of the Tory party’s story will be the terms on which it shapes up to fight Corbynite Labour. |
| That will lead to a year of calculated compromises, crafted to cover up gaping divides over belief and identity. Deal, no-deal, sort-of deal – the perilous routes of the post-Brexit odyssey are set to test the navigational skills of those aspiring to run the fractious Tory show when life after May finally dawns. | That will lead to a year of calculated compromises, crafted to cover up gaping divides over belief and identity. Deal, no-deal, sort-of deal – the perilous routes of the post-Brexit odyssey are set to test the navigational skills of those aspiring to run the fractious Tory show when life after May finally dawns. |
| • Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist | • Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist |
| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Jeremy Hunt | Jeremy Hunt |
| Sajid Javid | Sajid Javid |
| Michael Gove | Michael Gove |
| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| Brexit | Brexit |
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