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| America’s Allies Fear That Traditional Ties No Longer Matter Under Trump | America’s Allies Fear That Traditional Ties No Longer Matter Under Trump |
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| BRUSSELS — America’s allies in Europe and Asia thought they had learned to digest and compensate for the instinctive unpredictability of President Trump. But the bitter resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the abrupt announcement of plans to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan are being viewed as watershed moments for Washington’s relations with the world. | BRUSSELS — America’s allies in Europe and Asia thought they had learned to digest and compensate for the instinctive unpredictability of President Trump. But the bitter resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and the abrupt announcement of plans to withdraw troops from Syria and Afghanistan are being viewed as watershed moments for Washington’s relations with the world. |
| Many countries were already trying to recalibrate their relations with Mr. Trump, who views traditional allies as competitors. From South Korea to Japan, France to Germany and other countries in the NATO alliance, senior officials have been talking aloud about how to do more on their own and ways to be less reliant on a Washington focused on “America First.” | Many countries were already trying to recalibrate their relations with Mr. Trump, who views traditional allies as competitors. From South Korea to Japan, France to Germany and other countries in the NATO alliance, senior officials have been talking aloud about how to do more on their own and ways to be less reliant on a Washington focused on “America First.” |
| But they also had faith in Mr. Mattis, who presented himself as a man of continuity and of traditional alliances, and who worked to strengthen them considerably regardless of the views held in the White House. He was also regarded by traditional allies as their most sympathetic and effective conduit to Mr. Trump, and as the “adult” of last resort able to restrain, balance or ignore the whims of an unpredictable president. | But they also had faith in Mr. Mattis, who presented himself as a man of continuity and of traditional alliances, and who worked to strengthen them considerably regardless of the views held in the White House. He was also regarded by traditional allies as their most sympathetic and effective conduit to Mr. Trump, and as the “adult” of last resort able to restrain, balance or ignore the whims of an unpredictable president. |
| This is “a morning of alarm in Europe,” Carl Bildt, a former prime minister of Sweden, said on Twitter on Friday. He added that Mr. Mattis was seen as the last “strong bond across the Atlantic in the Trump Administration,” since “all the others are fragile at best or broken at worst.” | |
| For François Heisbourg, a former French defense official, it was a watershed moment of an American president under fire, in open opposition to his intelligence and military structures, acting with utter disregard for traditional American allies in his sudden decisions to pull troops out of Syria and Afghanistan. | For François Heisbourg, a former French defense official, it was a watershed moment of an American president under fire, in open opposition to his intelligence and military structures, acting with utter disregard for traditional American allies in his sudden decisions to pull troops out of Syria and Afghanistan. |
| “Until now, you could talk about hedging, and all allies were doing it fairly prudently,” Mr. Heisbourg said. “But now everyone will have to work on the assumption that the alliance system is no longer there. The organizations are there, the treaties are there, the troops and equipment are still there, but the high priest of that church is gone.” | “Until now, you could talk about hedging, and all allies were doing it fairly prudently,” Mr. Heisbourg said. “But now everyone will have to work on the assumption that the alliance system is no longer there. The organizations are there, the treaties are there, the troops and equipment are still there, but the high priest of that church is gone.” |
| Mr. Trump is often scornful of America’s decades-old network of multilateral alliances, seeing them as a costly burden. They were created after the catastrophes of World War II, both in Europe and in Asia, and aimed at supporting fragile, battered democracies and deterring the ideological and imperial ambitions of both Communist powers, Russia and China. | |
| These alliances cost the American taxpayer real money, of course, but the payments were not altruistic — they prevented the United States from having to engage in yet another global conflict, another world war. And they created increasingly wealthy markets for American products, both industrial and agricultural. | |
| In turn, many allies fought alongside the United States in its wars — in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. And when Al Qaeda attacked the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, NATO exercised Article 5 of its treaty: If one NATO country is attacked, all NATO countries will be considered under attack and will join in defense. | |
| On Friday morning, as global leaders digested the news of the latest upheaval in Washington, the divided reaction was telling. Even as traditional allies were stunned and blindsided, Russia, Turkey and China offered praise. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, welcomed an American withdrawal from Syria and said Washington and Ankara should “coordinate together.” | On Friday morning, as global leaders digested the news of the latest upheaval in Washington, the divided reaction was telling. Even as traditional allies were stunned and blindsided, Russia, Turkey and China offered praise. Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, welcomed an American withdrawal from Syria and said Washington and Ankara should “coordinate together.” |
| In Beijing, China’s military leaders are certain to be pleased. To demonstrate American support for Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its territory, Mr. Mattis dispatched warships to the Taiwan Strait three times this year. He also pushed back hard against Beijing in the South China Sea, sending warships close to disputed islands that China claims. | |
| A new American defense secretary whose thinking would be more in line with Mr. Trump’s could be an opportunity for China, said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. | A new American defense secretary whose thinking would be more in line with Mr. Trump’s could be an opportunity for China, said Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University. |
| “Certainly Trump wants a more compliant secretary of defense,” Mr. Wu said. “With China, Trump focuses on the economy, not security or geopolitics. But the military has been pushing vigorously on Taiwan and the South China Sea. Let’s see if this will change.” | “Certainly Trump wants a more compliant secretary of defense,” Mr. Wu said. “With China, Trump focuses on the economy, not security or geopolitics. But the military has been pushing vigorously on Taiwan and the South China Sea. Let’s see if this will change.” |
| For France and Britain, it was a time to question their involvement under American leadership in both Syria and Afghanistan. The French defense minister, Florence Parly, said Friday morning that French forces were in the Middle East and engaged over Syria “in the framework of a coalition, which is led by the Americans,” trying to eliminate the remaining Islamic State forces in Iraq and Syria “at the side of the Americans.” | |
| But now, “it is evident” that Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria “profoundly changes the situation,” Ms. Parly told RTL radio. The Islamic State is not dead, as Mr. Trump asserted, she said. | But now, “it is evident” that Mr. Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria “profoundly changes the situation,” Ms. Parly told RTL radio. The Islamic State is not dead, as Mr. Trump asserted, she said. |
| “The risk is that by not finishing off these pockets, they can grow again, regain territory and hit Europe again,” she added. “The job must be finished.” | “The risk is that by not finishing off these pockets, they can grow again, regain territory and hit Europe again,” she added. “The job must be finished.” |
| Britain, with troops alongside American forces in Afghanistan, must also recalibrate, said Ivor Roberts, a former ambassador. | |
| “All around for America’s allies, it’s a matter of great dismay,” he said. In Syria, “Trump has given comfort to people I wouldn’t think the United States would want to give comfort to: the Russians, Iranians and ISIS.” | |
| The United States has been so indispensable for so long that it has always claimed a head seat at the geopolitical table. But many analysts say Mr. Trump’s volatility and disregard for allies could fundamentally diminish America’s global clout if the country is no longer seen as a dependable ally. | The United States has been so indispensable for so long that it has always claimed a head seat at the geopolitical table. But many analysts say Mr. Trump’s volatility and disregard for allies could fundamentally diminish America’s global clout if the country is no longer seen as a dependable ally. |
| “President Trump seems to think he can have it both ways,” said Karin von Hippel, director of the Royal United Services Institute for Defense Studies, a military research institute in London. “Withdraw U.S. troops from every deployment, reduce financial support for international institutions such as NATO or the U.N., cede U.S. leadership on peace processes in places such as Syria, Yemen, Libya — and still keep the prominent seat at the table. | |
| “I’m afraid it doesn’t work that way,” she continued. “We are already seeing like-minded countries moving on without the United States as well as countries such as China, Russia and Iran filling the void that has been created. US withdrawal can only lead to more global insecurity, which will negatively impact the United States as much as Europe.” | |
| More immediately, the abruptness of Mr. Trump’s latest moves, coupled with the Mattis resignation, left many allies feeling left out. | More immediately, the abruptness of Mr. Trump’s latest moves, coupled with the Mattis resignation, left many allies feeling left out. |
| Japan’s secretary of defense, Takeshi Iwaya, said he was surprised by the resignation. “Not only did he work for close cooperation between Japan and the U.S., he also showed very strong leadership,” Mr. Iwaya said of Mr. Mattis. “I am hoping that the policy of close cooperation as allies will continue.” | Japan’s secretary of defense, Takeshi Iwaya, said he was surprised by the resignation. “Not only did he work for close cooperation between Japan and the U.S., he also showed very strong leadership,” Mr. Iwaya said of Mr. Mattis. “I am hoping that the policy of close cooperation as allies will continue.” |
| Another Japanese official, however, expressed confidence that the military alliance with the United States would remain strong given Mr. Trump’s close personal relationship with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. | |
| The unexpected troop withdrawals in Syria and Afghanistan did not just startle allies, some analysts predicted the moves could diminish American leverage, rather than enhance it. | The unexpected troop withdrawals in Syria and Afghanistan did not just startle allies, some analysts predicted the moves could diminish American leverage, rather than enhance it. |
| “Trump has pulled the rug out from under our negotiators in both Syria and Afghanistan,” said R. Nicholas Burns, a former American diplomat who has been critical of Mr. Trump. “Why will the Russians and Iranians make concessions to us in Syria now that they know we are leaving? Why will the Taliban deal seriously with us now that they know half our troops will be withdrawn so suddenly?” he asked, referring to possible peace talks in Afghanistan. | |
| To many analysts, the whole flurry of changes is dizzying, but also the new reality. | To many analysts, the whole flurry of changes is dizzying, but also the new reality. |
| “Europeans can no longer pretend that there is not a fundamental shift in the way the United States perceives of her military role in the world,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations. Taken together, she added, this is “a structural change in U.S. foreign and security policy.” | “Europeans can no longer pretend that there is not a fundamental shift in the way the United States perceives of her military role in the world,” said Daniela Schwarzer, director of the German Council on Foreign Relations. Taken together, she added, this is “a structural change in U.S. foreign and security policy.” |