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| UK retail sales in November jump more than expected | UK retail sales in November jump more than expected |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| Retail sales jumped more than expected in November, helped by Black Friday promotions and stronger growth in sales of household goods. | Retail sales jumped more than expected in November, helped by Black Friday promotions and stronger growth in sales of household goods. |
| Official figures showed sales rose 1.4% from October, despite economists' forecasts of about a 0.3% gain. | Official figures showed sales rose 1.4% from October, despite economists' forecasts of about a 0.3% gain. |
| But for the three months to November, which smoothes out monthly volatility, sales growth was 0.4% on the previous quarter, the slowest rate since April. | But for the three months to November, which smoothes out monthly volatility, sales growth was 0.4% on the previous quarter, the slowest rate since April. |
| Several retailers have warned of tough trading this winter. | Several retailers have warned of tough trading this winter. |
| Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley said November was "unbelievably bad", while Superdry and online retailer Asos have also warned of dismal trading. | Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley said November was "unbelievably bad", while Superdry and online retailer Asos have also warned of dismal trading. |
| The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the changing nature of Black Friday sales promotions posed a challenge for the process of adjusting for seasonal variations. | The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the changing nature of Black Friday sales promotions posed a challenge for the process of adjusting for seasonal variations. |
| Household goods sales leapt by 5.3% on the month in November, the biggest increase since the end of 2013 and driven by an 11% increase in electrical appliances. Online sales as a proportion of all retailing exceeded 20% for the first time, the ONS said. | Household goods sales leapt by 5.3% on the month in November, the biggest increase since the end of 2013 and driven by an 11% increase in electrical appliances. Online sales as a proportion of all retailing exceeded 20% for the first time, the ONS said. |
| Surveys from the British Retail Consortium and Barclaycard have suggested that households were continuing to shop cautiously in November. | Surveys from the British Retail Consortium and Barclaycard have suggested that households were continuing to shop cautiously in November. |
| However, recently consumers have seen the fastest growth in underlying pay growth since 2008, with inflation falling to a 20-month low of 2.3%, according to ONS figures released earlier this week. | However, recently consumers have seen the fastest growth in underlying pay growth since 2008, with inflation falling to a 20-month low of 2.3%, according to ONS figures released earlier this week. |
| Thomas Pugh, UK Economist at Capital Economics, said the stronger spending could point to a weaker December, but that the longer term trend was more positive. | Thomas Pugh, UK Economist at Capital Economics, said the stronger spending could point to a weaker December, but that the longer term trend was more positive. |
| He said: "With inflation continuing to fall back... and pay growth on the up, there should be scope for consumer spending growth to gather some momentum further ahead. [The] big picture is that a continued acceleration in real earnings, assuming a Brexit deal is signed, should give household spending a boost next year." | He said: "With inflation continuing to fall back... and pay growth on the up, there should be scope for consumer spending growth to gather some momentum further ahead. [The] big picture is that a continued acceleration in real earnings, assuming a Brexit deal is signed, should give household spending a boost next year." |
| Philipp Gutzwiller, head of retail at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said November data showed that "online is now truly coming of age". | Philipp Gutzwiller, head of retail at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said November data showed that "online is now truly coming of age". |
| He added: "More than perhaps any month before, the fact that overall sales rose in November was thanks to the relative success of Black Friday online compared with on the High Street." | He added: "More than perhaps any month before, the fact that overall sales rose in November was thanks to the relative success of Black Friday online compared with on the High Street." |
| The most recent high street and shopping centre footfall data for November, compiled by Springboard, showed the worst decline since the recession. | The most recent high street and shopping centre footfall data for November, compiled by Springboard, showed the worst decline since the recession. |
| Analysis: | Analysis: |
| By Dharshini David, BBC economics correspondent | By Dharshini David, BBC economics correspondent |
| It turns out Christmas came early - but may not have been quite the bumper gift that some retailers were anticipating. Black Friday is increasingly a fixture in the festive shopping calendar, shifting Christmas spending from December to November. | |
| The ONS, which produces the retail figures, smooth them out to allow for seasonal patterns, but their adjustment process may not have yet caught up with what is still quite a new phenomenon. | The ONS, which produces the retail figures, smooth them out to allow for seasonal patterns, but their adjustment process may not have yet caught up with what is still quite a new phenomenon. |
| So, the "adjusted" increase in the amount of goods sold between October and November may appear stronger than it should. And it's clear that shifting more goods in November came at a heavy price for retailers such as Asos, which had to discount heavily to keep up with competitors, damaging profits. | So, the "adjusted" increase in the amount of goods sold between October and November may appear stronger than it should. And it's clear that shifting more goods in November came at a heavy price for retailers such as Asos, which had to discount heavily to keep up with competitors, damaging profits. |
| Beyond the November headline, the underlying trend in spending is slowing - growing by 0.4% over the last four months. That's the weakest rate since April, and doesn't bode well for retailers or the economy as a whole. | Beyond the November headline, the underlying trend in spending is slowing - growing by 0.4% over the last four months. That's the weakest rate since April, and doesn't bode well for retailers or the economy as a whole. |
| And if Christmas shopping is happening earlier, December could disappoint. Indeed, a survey from CBI points to weakest growth in sales this month for over a year. | And if Christmas shopping is happening earlier, December could disappoint. Indeed, a survey from CBI points to weakest growth in sales this month for over a year. |