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How the Trump Administration Is Messing with the Census How the Trump Administration Is Messing With the Census
(3 days later)
This article is part of the Opinion Today newsletter. You can sign up here to receive the newsletter each weekday.This article is part of the Opinion Today newsletter. You can sign up here to receive the newsletter each weekday.
First, the 2020 presidential campaign has begun. The likely candidates are giving media interviews, meeting with potential campaign aides and donors, and planning their campaign themes. Many voters and writers, meanwhile, are asking what kind of nominee the Democrats should choose next year.First, the 2020 presidential campaign has begun. The likely candidates are giving media interviews, meeting with potential campaign aides and donors, and planning their campaign themes. Many voters and writers, meanwhile, are asking what kind of nominee the Democrats should choose next year.
My column today addresses that question. I think many of the most frequently discussed topics — a candidate’s race, sex and age, for example — are overrated. But I do think there is clear evidence about what kind of campaign the Democrats should run.My column today addresses that question. I think many of the most frequently discussed topics — a candidate’s race, sex and age, for example — are overrated. But I do think there is clear evidence about what kind of campaign the Democrats should run.
It should be a populist campaign — one focused on jobs, wages, health care and education, a campaign that takes on President Trump, congressional Republicans and corporate lobbyists for harming the middle class. Populism has enormous political potency right now, and my column tries to make the full argument for it — with help from history and charts.It should be a populist campaign — one focused on jobs, wages, health care and education, a campaign that takes on President Trump, congressional Republicans and corporate lobbyists for harming the middle class. Populism has enormous political potency right now, and my column tries to make the full argument for it — with help from history and charts.
[Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.][Listen to “The Argument” podcast every Thursday morning, with Ross Douthat, Michelle Goldberg and David Leonhardt.]
If you have thoughts about the column, please submit a comment. I’ll be responding to several later today, within the column’s comments section.If you have thoughts about the column, please submit a comment. I’ll be responding to several later today, within the column’s comments section.
The census. This week could be a big one for the Trump administration’s plot to undercount Latinos in the 2020 census.The census. This week could be a big one for the Trump administration’s plot to undercount Latinos in the 2020 census.
I realize that description sounds conspiratorial, but the administration’s behavior has been just that. Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, has publicly lied about the administration’s attempt to add a question to the census asking about citizenship status. Experts believe that such a question would likely cause more immigrants — those here legally and illegally — to refuse to take part in the census, out of a fear of drawing the attention of immigration officials.I realize that description sounds conspiratorial, but the administration’s behavior has been just that. Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, has publicly lied about the administration’s attempt to add a question to the census asking about citizenship status. Experts believe that such a question would likely cause more immigrants — those here legally and illegally — to refuse to take part in the census, out of a fear of drawing the attention of immigration officials.
This week could be important because legal observers believe a federal judge in New York may rule on a lawsuit on the question. The lawsuit — filed by 18 states as well as civil- and immigration-rights groups — seeks to prevent the administration from adding the question to the 2020 census. The trial lasted for three weeks last month.This week could be important because legal observers believe a federal judge in New York may rule on a lawsuit on the question. The lawsuit — filed by 18 states as well as civil- and immigration-rights groups — seeks to prevent the administration from adding the question to the 2020 census. The trial lasted for three weeks last month.
“Basically everything we do as a country statistically is based on the census,” Dale Ho of the American Civil Liberties Union, one of the plaintiffs’ lawyers, told my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. Not only does the federal government use its data to determine funding and to draw congressional districts, but state government, local government, companies and academic researchers all use it, too.“Basically everything we do as a country statistically is based on the census,” Dale Ho of the American Civil Liberties Union, one of the plaintiffs’ lawyers, told my colleague Ian Prasad Philbrick. Not only does the federal government use its data to determine funding and to draw congressional districts, but state government, local government, companies and academic researchers all use it, too.
Ho points out that Trump officials didn’t dispute during the trial that adding a citizenship question would decrease the accuracy of the survey that makes up the census. “The one thing that they agreed with us on, consistently, was that it’s going to screw up the quality of the count.” They claimed they could overcome some of the problems with statistical techniques and argued — ludicrously, in my view — that they needed the question to enforce the Voting Rights Act.Ho points out that Trump officials didn’t dispute during the trial that adding a citizenship question would decrease the accuracy of the survey that makes up the census. “The one thing that they agreed with us on, consistently, was that it’s going to screw up the quality of the count.” They claimed they could overcome some of the problems with statistical techniques and argued — ludicrously, in my view — that they needed the question to enforce the Voting Rights Act.
But the real motivation is obviously political. An undercount of Latinos would help the Republican Party by giving less political power and federal funding to immigrant-heavy regions, which also tend to lean Democrat. An undercount, notes the writer David Daley, would help “Republicans maintain control of many state legislatures where the demographics are moving against them.”But the real motivation is obviously political. An undercount of Latinos would help the Republican Party by giving less political power and federal funding to immigrant-heavy regions, which also tend to lean Democrat. An undercount, notes the writer David Daley, would help “Republicans maintain control of many state legislatures where the demographics are moving against them.”
The attempt to change the census, then, is yet another attempt to undermine democracy.The attempt to change the census, then, is yet another attempt to undermine democracy.
For more:For more:
FiveThirtyEight’s Anna Maria Barry-Jester explains why the citizenship question makes people afraid to participate in the census;FiveThirtyEight’s Anna Maria Barry-Jester explains why the citizenship question makes people afraid to participate in the census;
My colleague Emily Bazelon has written an excellent overview of the issue for The Times Magazine;My colleague Emily Bazelon has written an excellent overview of the issue for The Times Magazine;
Hansi Lo Wang of NPR, who has provided some of the best running coverage of the trial, is active on Twitter.Hansi Lo Wang of NPR, who has provided some of the best running coverage of the trial, is active on Twitter.
Whenever a ruling comes — and whichever way it goes — this issue won’t be resolved anytime soon. Opponents of the citizenship question have already filed five other lawsuits, and the Trump administration has already asked the Supreme Court to intervene.Whenever a ruling comes — and whichever way it goes — this issue won’t be resolved anytime soon. Opponents of the citizenship question have already filed five other lawsuits, and the Trump administration has already asked the Supreme Court to intervene.
You can join me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and Facebook. I am also writing a daily email newsletter and invite you to subscribe.You can join me on Twitter (@DLeonhardt) and Facebook. I am also writing a daily email newsletter and invite you to subscribe.
Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTOpinion).Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTOpinion).