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Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary: Kabila's choice for DR Congo president | Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary: Kabila's choice for DR Congo president |
(about 9 hours later) | |
President Joseph Kabila's preferred successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, has a fearsome reputation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. | President Joseph Kabila's preferred successor, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, has a fearsome reputation in the Democratic Republic of Congo. |
The question is whether Mr Shadary can convert that into a victory in Sunday's presidential election. | The question is whether Mr Shadary can convert that into a victory in Sunday's presidential election. |
The former deputy premier and interior minister is said by many to have earned the nickname "Back To Back" for his role in putting down a succession of opposition protests in 2017. | |
The crackdown, which turned deadly, led to him being sanctioned by the European Union. | The crackdown, which turned deadly, led to him being sanctioned by the European Union. |
But his supporters say the name is a reference to his years as a model student at DR Congo's University of Lubumbashi, from where he graduated with five distinctions in 1987. | But his supporters say the name is a reference to his years as a model student at DR Congo's University of Lubumbashi, from where he graduated with five distinctions in 1987. |
Mr Shadary's loyalty to the president has been rewarded with the specially created post of permanent secretary in DR Congo's main political party. | Mr Shadary's loyalty to the president has been rewarded with the specially created post of permanent secretary in DR Congo's main political party. |
But many regard the regime stalwart and hardliner as a surprise candidate for the top job, with reports suggesting that even members of Mr Kabila's inner circle were taken aback when Mr Shadary announced his leadership bid. | But many regard the regime stalwart and hardliner as a surprise candidate for the top job, with reports suggesting that even members of Mr Kabila's inner circle were taken aback when Mr Shadary announced his leadership bid. |
'Loyal hardliner' | 'Loyal hardliner' |
Some analysts warn that, if elected, Mr Shadary may merely keep the presidential seat warm while Mr Kabila, expected to step down after 17 years, plots a comeback. | Some analysts warn that, if elected, Mr Shadary may merely keep the presidential seat warm while Mr Kabila, expected to step down after 17 years, plots a comeback. |
The president has not ruled out standing again in 2023, adding "there is still a long journey ahead" and he will remain in politics after the poll. | The president has not ruled out standing again in 2023, adding "there is still a long journey ahead" and he will remain in politics after the poll. |
Born in 1960 in Kasongo in eastern DR Congo, Mr Shadary studied at the University of Lubumbashi's political sciences department before entering public life in the 1990s. | Born in 1960 in Kasongo in eastern DR Congo, Mr Shadary studied at the University of Lubumbashi's political sciences department before entering public life in the 1990s. |
He was elected deputy governor of his native Maniema province in 1997 and a year later became governor of the region, from where Mr Kabila's mother also hails. | He was elected deputy governor of his native Maniema province in 1997 and a year later became governor of the region, from where Mr Kabila's mother also hails. |
"I don't think he ever dreamed of becoming president of DR Congo," Prof Alphonse Maindo of the University of Kisangani told the BBC. | "I don't think he ever dreamed of becoming president of DR Congo," Prof Alphonse Maindo of the University of Kisangani told the BBC. |
"He is not someone who is seen as having charisma, or able to rally people around him." | "He is not someone who is seen as having charisma, or able to rally people around him." |
Mr Shadary's peers gave him another nickname, "Make It Happen", when in 2018 he successfully led negotiations to have electoral reforms passed in parliament despite spirited opposition. | |
Mr 'Make It Happen' | |
Mr Shadary rose to national political prominence in December 2016 when he was appointed as one of three deputy prime ministers, as well as minister of internal security. | Mr Shadary rose to national political prominence in December 2016 when he was appointed as one of three deputy prime ministers, as well as minister of internal security. |
President Kabila's time in office should have ended that same month, but no elections were held despite it being a constitutional requirement, and the polls were delayed repeatedly. | President Kabila's time in office should have ended that same month, but no elections were held despite it being a constitutional requirement, and the polls were delayed repeatedly. |
In Kabila's shadow | In Kabila's shadow |
In February 2018, Mr Shadary was named the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) permanent secretary, elevating him to the second-most powerful position in the party he co-founded in 2002. The PPRD is the main group in the ruling Alliance for the Presidential Majority. | In February 2018, Mr Shadary was named the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) permanent secretary, elevating him to the second-most powerful position in the party he co-founded in 2002. The PPRD is the main group in the ruling Alliance for the Presidential Majority. |
It was a role created as part of internal party reforms in preparation for the upcoming election, and widely regarded as a reward from the president for his loyalty. | It was a role created as part of internal party reforms in preparation for the upcoming election, and widely regarded as a reward from the president for his loyalty. |
As presidential candidate, Mr Shadary will represent the governing coalition's new electoral grouping, the Common Front for Congo. | As presidential candidate, Mr Shadary will represent the governing coalition's new electoral grouping, the Common Front for Congo. |
"Mr Shadary was pretty much unknown before he was appointed as successor to Joseph Kabila," Prof Filip Reyntjens of Belgium's University of Antwerp told the BBC. | "Mr Shadary was pretty much unknown before he was appointed as successor to Joseph Kabila," Prof Filip Reyntjens of Belgium's University of Antwerp told the BBC. |
"If you had asked people for a list of 10 possible candidates he would not have even got a mention." | "If you had asked people for a list of 10 possible candidates he would not have even got a mention." |
He says there is a possibility that "a weaker personality" at DR Congo's helm could allow the outgoing president to exercise power from the sidelines. | He says there is a possibility that "a weaker personality" at DR Congo's helm could allow the outgoing president to exercise power from the sidelines. |
"That would make sense from Mr Kabila's point of view." | "That would make sense from Mr Kabila's point of view." |
Prof Maindo agrees, and says that Mr Kabila regards the unexpected reforms of Angola's President Joao Lourenco as a cautionary tale. | Prof Maindo agrees, and says that Mr Kabila regards the unexpected reforms of Angola's President Joao Lourenco as a cautionary tale. |
Prior to his election last year, Mr Lourenco had been viewed by many as a puppet of long-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. But he has since turned on the former president and his family. | Prior to his election last year, Mr Lourenco had been viewed by many as a puppet of long-serving President Jose Eduardo dos Santos. But he has since turned on the former president and his family. |
But what is different, says Prof Maindo, is that Mr Shadary is "without large funds of his own" and therefore "dependent on Mr Kabila's finances". | But what is different, says Prof Maindo, is that Mr Shadary is "without large funds of his own" and therefore "dependent on Mr Kabila's finances". |
More on DR Congo: | More on DR Congo: |
Aside from his loyalty to the president, analysts also credit Mr Shadary's rise through the ranks to his hardline approach. | Aside from his loyalty to the president, analysts also credit Mr Shadary's rise through the ranks to his hardline approach. |
As interior minister he oversaw a brutal crackdown on anti-Kabila protests across the country in 2017. During that time, dozens of civilians were killed by government forces. | As interior minister he oversaw a brutal crackdown on anti-Kabila protests across the country in 2017. During that time, dozens of civilians were killed by government forces. |
'Parody of an election' | 'Parody of an election' |
Rights groups have also accused Mr Shadary of spearheading a brutal military crackdown in the Kasai region, where long-simmering resentment exploded into rebellion in 2016. | Rights groups have also accused Mr Shadary of spearheading a brutal military crackdown in the Kasai region, where long-simmering resentment exploded into rebellion in 2016. |
The EU has renewed existing travel bans and financial sanctions on Mr Shadary and 13 other senior officials for election delays and violently suppressing anti-government protests in 2017. | The EU has renewed existing travel bans and financial sanctions on Mr Shadary and 13 other senior officials for election delays and violently suppressing anti-government protests in 2017. |
International campaign group Human Rights Watch says Sunday's poll risks being a "parody of an election" in which popular opposition candidates have been "arbitrarily excluded" and resources controlled so as to allow Mr Shadary "an unfair advantage". | International campaign group Human Rights Watch says Sunday's poll risks being a "parody of an election" in which popular opposition candidates have been "arbitrarily excluded" and resources controlled so as to allow Mr Shadary "an unfair advantage". |
The exclusion of two heavyweight opposition contenders, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, may have boosted his chances. | The exclusion of two heavyweight opposition contenders, Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, may have boosted his chances. |
Mr Shadary has also been helped by the fact that the opposition vote may be split between two prominent candidates, Felix Tshisekedi and Martin Fayulu. | Mr Shadary has also been helped by the fact that the opposition vote may be split between two prominent candidates, Felix Tshisekedi and Martin Fayulu. |
The test, if elected on Sunday, will be whether he can emerge from the shadow of Mr Kabila. | The test, if elected on Sunday, will be whether he can emerge from the shadow of Mr Kabila. |