By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine Now the US has elected its first black president, how long until the UK has a black or Asian prime minister?
By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine Now the US has elected its first black president, how long until the UK has a black or Asian prime minister?
When Barack Obama claimed that his story could only have happened in America, he might have been looking across the Atlantic for evidence.
When Barack Obama claimed that his story could only have happened in America, he might have been looking across the Atlantic for evidence.
The odds of a black or Asian person taking the keys to 10 Downing Street any time soon are slim.
The odds of a black or Asian person taking the keys to 10 Downing Street any time soon are slim.
Tony Blair acknowledged as much in 2001, when he said the US was way ahead of the UK in giving its top political jobs to people from ethnic minorities.
Tony Blair acknowledged as much in 2001, when he said the US was way ahead of the UK in giving its top political jobs to people from ethnic minorities.
Mr Blair was mindful of Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice at the heart of the White House, but probably hadn't even heard of Obama. In the US they dare to dream the American dream, talking about hope, using that kind of language is something that Americans do naturally Baroness Amos
Mr Blair was mindful of Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice at the heart of the White House, but probably hadn't even heard of Obama. In the US they dare to dream the American dream, talking about hope, using that kind of language is something that Americans do naturally Baroness Amos
The president-elect, who has a white mother and black father, was careful not to invoke race in his campaign, which he won because of his ability to appeal to many parts of American society. But his success has been seen as a major step forward in a country scarred by slavery and segregation.
The president-elect, who has a white mother and black father, was careful not to invoke race in his campaign, which he won because of his ability to appeal to many parts of American society. But his success has been seen as a major step forward in a country scarred by slavery and segregation.
So why not a similar story in the UK, which had a Jewish prime minister in the 19th Century and this week celebrated a British black man becoming Formula One world champion?
So why not a similar story in the UK, which had a Jewish prime minister in the 19th Century and this week celebrated a British black man becoming Formula One world champion?
There have only ever been three non-white Cabinet members in Britain and there are only 15 MPs (2% of the total). And while the US has black mayors and state governors, in Britain black and Asian local councillors are still thin on the ground - just 4% of the total.
There have only ever been three non-white Cabinet members in Britain and there are only 15 MPs (2% of the total). And while the US has black mayors and state governors, in Britain black and Asian local councillors are still thin on the ground - just 4% of the total.
Partly the transatlantic difference is about numbers. In the US, black people make up 13% of the population while in the UK it is 3%, rising to 8% for all ethnic minorities. They have also been living in the US far longer, although it is only in the last 40 years that they have been doing so on an equal footing.
Partly the transatlantic difference is about numbers. In the US, black people make up 13% of the population while in the UK it is 3%, rising to 8% for all ethnic minorities. They have also been living in the US far longer, although it is only in the last 40 years that they have been doing so on an equal footing.
Batman films
Batman films
But figures only tell part of a wider story, which touches on class, ideology and political power.
But figures only tell part of a wider story, which touches on class, ideology and political power.
Actor Colin McFarlane, who played a black prime minister in a primetime BBC drama four years ago, says don't hold your breath. Britain's only black prime minister, in TV land at least - Colin McFarlane
Actor Colin McFarlane, who played a black prime minister in a primetime BBC drama four years ago, says don't hold your breath. Britain's only black prime minister, in TV land at least - Colin McFarlane
Researching the part and speaking to politicians about it, McFarlane realised how far away fiction was from reality, with the House of Commons dominated by public school-educated, white males.
Researching the part and speaking to politicians about it, McFarlane realised how far away fiction was from reality, with the House of Commons dominated by public school-educated, white males.
"We realised that if there was to be a black prime minister, education would be the key. We identified a route not dissimilar to my own - public school in Cambridge then university."
"We realised that if there was to be a black prime minister, education would be the key. We identified a route not dissimilar to my own - public school in Cambridge then university."
Having spent a lot of time in the US - he appeared in two Batman films - he thinks the UK can learn from the way Americans responded to their racist history.
Having spent a lot of time in the US - he appeared in two Batman films - he thinks the UK can learn from the way Americans responded to their racist history.
"Since the civil rights movement of the Sixties they have had to put in laws and rules in place because racism was more overt. It's more subtle in this country but there is a sense there's a glass ceiling across most industries.
"Since the civil rights movement of the Sixties they have had to put in laws and rules in place because racism was more overt. It's more subtle in this country but there is a sense there's a glass ceiling across most industries.
"In America it's more acknowledged and they've put in positive discrimination. There was much resistance at the beginning but they have the fruits of that, which is people being forced into certain positions."
"In America it's more acknowledged and they've put in positive discrimination. There was much resistance at the beginning but they have the fruits of that, which is people being forced into certain positions."
Consequently the US has a large and powerful black middle class, he says. While the UK is arguably more integrated, he says, a black prime minister will only be closer when there are more black business leaders and commissioning editors, operating the levers of power and educating society about black and Asian experiences. In the US a fresh face like Obama can make it in one electoral cycle. In Britain it's generally a gradual process of service and promotion over many years, and often decades Adam Afriyie
Consequently the US has a large and powerful black middle class, he says. While the UK is arguably more integrated, he says, a black prime minister will only be closer when there are more black business leaders and commissioning editors, operating the levers of power and educating society about black and Asian experiences. In the US a fresh face like Obama can make it in one electoral cycle. In Britain it's generally a gradual process of service and promotion over many years, and often decades Adam Afriyie
The British political system counts against a newcomer like Mr Obama bursting on to the scene, says black Conservative MP Adam Afriyie. He doesn't expect to see a black leader of the country in his lifetime.
The British political system counts against a newcomer like Mr Obama bursting on to the scene, says black Conservative MP Adam Afriyie. He doesn't expect to see a black leader of the country in his lifetime.
"You need enough MPs from a variety of backgrounds and political parties that promote on merit.
"You need enough MPs from a variety of backgrounds and political parties that promote on merit.
"In the US a fresh face like Obama can make it in one electoral cycle. In Britain it's generally a gradual process of service and promotion over many years, and often decades, before leading a political party.
"In the US a fresh face like Obama can make it in one electoral cycle. In Britain it's generally a gradual process of service and promotion over many years, and often decades, before leading a political party.
"An MP needs to get within electable distance of the leadership of their party and that usually means a successful stint in cabinet or shadow cabinet."
"An MP needs to get within electable distance of the leadership of their party and that usually means a successful stint in cabinet or shadow cabinet."
For Baroness Amos, one of only three black people to have sat in cabinet, much is down to the difference in attitudes to aspiration between the US and UK.
For Baroness Amos, one of only three black people to have sat in cabinet, much is down to the difference in attitudes to aspiration between the US and UK.
"In the US they dare to dream the American dream, talking about hope. Using that kind of language is something Americans do naturally. Here, we are I think culturally much more understated. We tend to be more cynical generally.
"In the US they dare to dream the American dream, talking about hope. Using that kind of language is something Americans do naturally. Here, we are I think culturally much more understated. We tend to be more cynical generally.
"And while I don't think we are anti-aspirational, the aspiration of what we are and who we are comes without the language of America. Americans are proud that they have brought about change no-one thought possible in the time they have.
"And while I don't think we are anti-aspirational, the aspiration of what we are and who we are comes without the language of America. Americans are proud that they have brought about change no-one thought possible in the time they have.
"The language of Barack Obama and Martin Luther King is very singular to America but we're not able to use that kind of language. So we need to find a way to get out of that cynicism."
"The language of Barack Obama and Martin Luther King is very singular to America but we're not able to use that kind of language. So we need to find a way to get out of that cynicism."
Pressure
Pressure
There are also systemic problems in political parties and more needs to be done to train, support and mentor emerging talent from ethnic minorities, she says.
There are also systemic problems in political parties and more needs to be done to train, support and mentor emerging talent from ethnic minorities, she says.
"You need to be plugged into networks. Political parties are a bit like families and communities, so you need to know the right people and the right people need to be speaking up on your behalf."
"You need to be plugged into networks. Political parties are a bit like families and communities, so you need to know the right people and the right people need to be speaking up on your behalf."
David Lammy, arguably Britain's most powerful black MP of the moment and a personal friend of Mr Obama, knows all about the label of "Britain's next black prime minister" - it was one pinned on him when he was elected to the Commons at 27.
David Lammy, arguably Britain's most powerful black MP of the moment and a personal friend of Mr Obama, knows all about the label of "Britain's next black prime minister" - it was one pinned on him when he was elected to the Commons at 27.
"Of course a black prime minister is possible," he says. "After all, we elected our first female prime minister nearly 30 years ago, and we have made clear strides since then in showing how diverse Britain is.
"Of course a black prime minister is possible," he says. "After all, we elected our first female prime minister nearly 30 years ago, and we have made clear strides since then in showing how diverse Britain is.
"I think that in 10 years the representation will be much healthier but putting pressure on individuals is unhelpful and we need to do much more work within political parties to bring people on, because it's a long route to the top." I think it could happen within 10 or 20 years Sadiq Khan
"I think that in 10 years the representation will be much healthier but putting pressure on individuals is unhelpful and we need to do much more work within political parties to bring people on, because it's a long route to the top."
But there are grounds for optimism. A report by the Fabian Society estimates there will be 10 new black and Asian MPs at the next election.
But there are grounds for optimism. A report by the Fabian Society estimates there will be 10 new black and Asian MPs at the next election. IS THE ELECTORATE READY? Sadiq Khan MP has no doubt it is"The myth that ethnic minority candidates are vote-losers, or that black voters only vote for black candidates, has once and for all been dispelled.""The electorate in the UK is very sophisticated and looks beyond skin colour at what candidates stand for.""I've met and seen so many incredibly talented black and Asian politicians I think it could happen within 10 or 20 years"
And Simon Woolley, director of Operation Black Vote, says the US election marks a watershed that could mean a black prime minister in 10 or 20 years.
And Simon Woolley, director of Operation Black Vote, says the US election marks a watershed that could mean a black prime minister in 10 or 20 years.
"The greatest problem has been the lack of self-belief that you see aspiring to the highest office and in one fell swoop the shackles have been broken. There's a deluge of talent but they may well be eclipsed by a new talent that could suddenly emerge with great dynamism and oratory skills."
"The greatest problem has been the lack of self-belief that you see aspiring to the highest office and in one fell swoop the shackles have been broken. There's a deluge of talent but they may well be eclipsed by a new talent that could suddenly emerge with great dynamism and oratory skills."
The obstacles in the UK are still immense, he says, and all-black shortlists for candidates would help, but the "Barack Obama generation" has been a theme for the past year, driving people to serve in their community.
The obstacles in the UK are still immense, he says, and all-black shortlists for candidates would help, but the "Barack Obama generation" has been a theme for the past year, driving people to serve in their community.
"We're asking them to come out of the shadows, to become leaders, school governors, magistrates and elected councillors, and they've responded fantastically.
"We're asking them to come out of the shadows, to become leaders, school governors, magistrates and elected councillors, and they've responded fantastically.
"Obama's candidacy has energised a great number of people and many individuals are now standing for office."
"Obama's candidacy has energised a great number of people and many individuals are now standing for office."
Talent
All MPs in Wales are white but there are three non-white candidates standing in three winnable seats at the next election, representing Labour, Conservatives and Plaid Cymru.
But is the UK electorate ready? Sadiq Khan, MP for Tooting, has no doubt.
"The myth that ethnic minority candidates are vote-losers, or that black voters only vote for black candidates, Asians for Asian candidates and white voters for white candidates, has once and for all been dispelled.
"The electorate in the UK is very sophisticated and looks beyond skin colour and looks at what candidates stand for and what parties they are from.
"I've met and seen so many incredibly talented black and Asian politicians I think it [a prime minister from an ethnic minority] could happen within 10 or 20 years."
The British Obama could already be among us.
The British Obama could already be among us.
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