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What does Dominic Grieve's amendment mean for Brexit? | What does Dominic Grieve's amendment mean for Brexit? |
(30 days later) | |
What is the Grieve amendment? | What is the Grieve amendment? |
Dominic Grieve has been at the forefront of efforts to ensure that MPs have a say in what happens next if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is rejected by MPs in the meaningful vote on 11 December. | Dominic Grieve has been at the forefront of efforts to ensure that MPs have a say in what happens next if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is rejected by MPs in the meaningful vote on 11 December. |
Amendments to the EU Withdrawal Act have already ensured that if MPs vote against it – as looks highly likely – the government must return to the House of Commons within 21 days and “make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s government proposes to proceed”. | Amendments to the EU Withdrawal Act have already ensured that if MPs vote against it – as looks highly likely – the government must return to the House of Commons within 21 days and “make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s government proposes to proceed”. |
Theresa May opens main Brexit debate after three Commons defeats – Politics live | Theresa May opens main Brexit debate after three Commons defeats – Politics live |
In the summer, after a personal appeal from May, Grieve blinked rather than inflict a defeat on the government over whether such a motion could be amended. | In the summer, after a personal appeal from May, Grieve blinked rather than inflict a defeat on the government over whether such a motion could be amended. |
On Tuesday, as MPs prepared to open five days of debate on the Brexit deal, he pressed the issue again and defeated the government, with the backing of 25 fellow Tory rebels. | On Tuesday, as MPs prepared to open five days of debate on the Brexit deal, he pressed the issue again and defeated the government, with the backing of 25 fellow Tory rebels. |
What difference does it make to Brexit? | What difference does it make to Brexit? |
Whatever motion the government brings back to parliament – which could in theory happen as late as New Year’s Eve, but will most likely occur before parliament rises for Christmas – will now have to be amendable. | Whatever motion the government brings back to parliament – which could in theory happen as late as New Year’s Eve, but will most likely occur before parliament rises for Christmas – will now have to be amendable. |
Backbench MPs who prefer a different future relationship with the EU – or another referendum – hope that will allow them to put their own proposals to a vote in the Commons. | Backbench MPs who prefer a different future relationship with the EU – or another referendum – hope that will allow them to put their own proposals to a vote in the Commons. |
It was notable that backers of the amendment included Nick Boles, who is spearheading moves to try to force the issue of a closer, Norway-style deal, and claims to have discussed the idea with several cabinet ministers. They could move quickly to table their alternative. | It was notable that backers of the amendment included Nick Boles, who is spearheading moves to try to force the issue of a closer, Norway-style deal, and claims to have discussed the idea with several cabinet ministers. They could move quickly to table their alternative. |
Does it make a second referendum more likely? | Does it make a second referendum more likely? |
At the margins, yes – it remains unclear whether there is a majority for another poll, but it ensures that MPs will have the opportunity to test the opinion of the Commons once the government has lost the meaningful vote. Backers of a people’s vote hope that will allow Labour to swing behind the idea. | At the margins, yes – it remains unclear whether there is a majority for another poll, but it ensures that MPs will have the opportunity to test the opinion of the Commons once the government has lost the meaningful vote. Backers of a people’s vote hope that will allow Labour to swing behind the idea. |
Couldn’t the government just ignore MPs? | Couldn’t the government just ignore MPs? |
Formally, perhaps. Steve Baker, a former Department for Exiting the EU minister, was keen to point out on Tuesday that any such motions would not be “legally binding”; but politically, it would be very difficult for the government simply to carry on regardless. | Formally, perhaps. Steve Baker, a former Department for Exiting the EU minister, was keen to point out on Tuesday that any such motions would not be “legally binding”; but politically, it would be very difficult for the government simply to carry on regardless. |
Completing the process of leaving the EU requires a key piece of legislation – the withdrawal agreement implementation bill – to be passed, and in recent days MPs have demonstrated their willingness to tie the government up in procedural knots if it appears to be ignoring parliament. | Completing the process of leaving the EU requires a key piece of legislation – the withdrawal agreement implementation bill – to be passed, and in recent days MPs have demonstrated their willingness to tie the government up in procedural knots if it appears to be ignoring parliament. |
What does it mean for Theresa May’s government? | What does it mean for Theresa May’s government? |
Her authority, already severely dented, is hanging by a thread. Rebels on the Conservative side supporting the amendment included six former cabinet ministers, including Damian Green, Nicky Morgan and Michael Fallon. | Her authority, already severely dented, is hanging by a thread. Rebels on the Conservative side supporting the amendment included six former cabinet ministers, including Damian Green, Nicky Morgan and Michael Fallon. |
With defeat on the meaningful vote looking all but certain, the Tories appear deeply divided about the way forward, and the amendment was the third vote the government lost in a single dramatic day. | With defeat on the meaningful vote looking all but certain, the Tories appear deeply divided about the way forward, and the amendment was the third vote the government lost in a single dramatic day. |
With the Democratic Unionist party’s Nigel Dodds, whose MPs the prime minister relies on for a governing majority, saying later that he would welcome a general election, it is unclear whether the Conservatives can muster a majority for anything. | With the Democratic Unionist party’s Nigel Dodds, whose MPs the prime minister relies on for a governing majority, saying later that he would welcome a general election, it is unclear whether the Conservatives can muster a majority for anything. |
Brexit | Brexit |
Dominic Grieve | Dominic Grieve |
Conservatives | Conservatives |
Article 50 | Article 50 |
European Union | European Union |
Foreign policy | Foreign policy |
analysis | analysis |
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