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| May accused of having 'head in sand' over Brexit making UK poorer - Politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| In a speech this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, rejected the government’s claim that Brexit would make the UK poorer. He said: | |
| Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong. | |
| As the Press Association reports, Davis said predictions the UK economy would contract by 2.1% in the 18 months after the Leave vote were unfounded, with it actually growing by 2.8%. He also said that other negative forecasts around unemployment and family incomes were also unfounded. | |
| None of this spine-chilling nonsense came to pass. | |
| Davis suggested a Brexit scenario in which the UK reverts to a free trade deal with the EU based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules could benefit the economy. “It would involve all the choking tentacles of the EU falling away,” he said. As the Press Association reports, Davis said UK exports to non-EU countries had grown four times faster than exports to the EU. | |
| The future of the UK economy does not lie with the EU but with the wider world. | |
| Here is more from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on the government’s Brexit impact analysis. | |
| We’re in the ludicrous position of seeing an analysis produced today on the economic implications of Brexit which is in fact an assessment of the Chequers proposals abandoned months ago. | |
| The government has been unable to assess the vague, half-baked deal the PM is promising, but what we do know is the latest proposals are worse than even the Chequers deal. | |
| What the analysis produced by the Treasury today does show us is that the Tories plans will leave the country poorer. | |
| Theresa May’s spokesman was asked after PMQs whether the government accepted that all the Brexit scenarios modelled in the Whitehall analysis - including the prime minister’s deal - will make Britain poorer. He replied: | |
| I think what the prime minister said in there was that in all scenarios set out today the economy will continue to grow As the PM said, she believes she secured is the best available that’s consistent with the referendum - and today’s analysis backs that up.” | |
| He added that the analysis doesn’t take into account “other decisions the government may make”, such as a souped-up industrial strategy. | |
| Pressed further, the spokesman threw a revealing question back at journalists, asking: | |
| Do you believe that when elected politicians ask the view of the public in a referendum, those same politicians should just be able to ignore that instruction? A country in which politicians ignore the will of the people, in what was the biggest democratic exercise in our history risks becoming divided, and divided countries do not prosper. | |
| In other words, as ministers can’t quite bring themselves to say, yes Brexit may make the economy poorer than it would otherwise have been; but voters made a decision that other factors - sovereignty, control of migration - were more important. | |
| Here is Torsten Bell, the director of the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focusing on inquality, on the government’s economic analysis. | |
| We've got little idea where between and FTA and Chequers we'll end up even if negotiations proceed from current deal. But big picture the analysis accepts that something in that space means a big hit to GDP (3.9%) and (more importantly for living standards) to GDP/capita (2.7%) pic.twitter.com/0iqkljurJF | |
| Back in the Commons, where the UQ is still going on, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna raises the same point that that Anna Soubry did. (See 1.14pm.) He says he and Soubry tabled an amendment to the finance bill demanding a Brexit analysis, and they only withdrew it because the Treasury promised it would publish an analysis of the government’s plan. But today’s analysis does not provide that, he says. He suggests he and Soubry were “misled”. | |
| Stride says the government cannot model precisely what its plan will be because the political spectrum sets a framework covering a spectrum of outcomes. | |
| David Henig, the trade specialist and former civil servant who heads the UK Trade Policy Project, has also posted useful thread on Twitter about the government’s economic analysis. He thinks it is “fraudulent”. His thread starts here. | |
| So the Government has modelled an imaginary scenario based on the Chequers proposals that the EU has rejected. The figures, which then show it isn't that different to remain, are therefore of little use... https://t.co/byMvjfMGA5 pic.twitter.com/lVtusOaP5z | |
| Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economic spokeswoman, has posted a useful thread on Twitter with excerpts from government’s Brexit economic analysis, with comment. It starts here. | |
| Some excerpts from the UK Government’s Brexit analysis. (Short version: despite trying to manipulate the figures to make May’s deal look better, it still stinks) | |
| Here is the CBI reaction to the government’s Brexit impact assessment. It’s from the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith. | |
| These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy. | |
| This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future. | |
| The SNP has accused Theresa May of having her “head in the sand” because at PMQs she refused to agree with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about Brexit making the UK poorer. (See 12.09pm and 12.22pm.) | |
| In response Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Wesminster, said: | |
| The chancellor explained that every possible Brexit scenario will make the UK poorer, yes astoundingly, Theresa May denied these comments in prime minister’s questions. | |
| The chancellor’s comments chime with analysis published yesterday by the Scottish government, which shows that most likely outcome of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the EU will hit Scotland’s GDP growth by £9 billion, leaving every Scot £1,600 worse off. | |
| No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer. Theresa May’s head is in the sand. | |
| Anna Soubry, the Conservative pro-European, says the government promised MPs it would produce a modelled analysis of its proposed deal. But that promise has not been met, she says. She says on the basis of that promise she withdrew an amendment to a bill on this issue. | Anna Soubry, the Conservative pro-European, says the government promised MPs it would produce a modelled analysis of its proposed deal. But that promise has not been met, she says. She says on the basis of that promise she withdrew an amendment to a bill on this issue. |
| Stride says he does not accept that promises have been broken. The analysis is covers a spectrum of outcomes, because the political declaration is not specific, he says. | Stride says he does not accept that promises have been broken. The analysis is covers a spectrum of outcomes, because the political declaration is not specific, he says. |
| Nicky Morgan, the chair of the Commons Treasury committee, starts by complaining that John Bercow has called three Tory backbench men ahead of her, even though the Treasury analysis was demanded by her committee. She says the Bank of England will publish its analysis later. And Philip Hammond will give evidence to her committee next week, she says. She urges MPs to consider all the evidence before coming to a view. | Nicky Morgan, the chair of the Commons Treasury committee, starts by complaining that John Bercow has called three Tory backbench men ahead of her, even though the Treasury analysis was demanded by her committee. She says the Bank of England will publish its analysis later. And Philip Hammond will give evidence to her committee next week, she says. She urges MPs to consider all the evidence before coming to a view. |
| Bercow says he almost always calls every MP who wants to speak in a UQ, unlike other speakers. He says MPs should not worry about when they are called. The three Tories he called ahead of her were the father of the House, and two former cabinet ministers, he says. | Bercow says he almost always calls every MP who wants to speak in a UQ, unlike other speakers. He says MPs should not worry about when they are called. The three Tories he called ahead of her were the father of the House, and two former cabinet ministers, he says. |
| David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, asks Stride if he knows of any economic forecast that has got the figures right. Stride accepts such a forecast does not exist. | David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, asks Stride if he knows of any economic forecast that has got the figures right. Stride accepts such a forecast does not exist. |
| Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, asks what was the point of modelling an plan (Chequers) involving the UK staying effectively in the single market for goods when the EU has rejected this. | Hilary Benn, the Labour chair of the Brexit committee, asks what was the point of modelling an plan (Chequers) involving the UK staying effectively in the single market for goods when the EU has rejected this. |
| Stride says the political declaration makes it clear that the details of the future trade deal are yet to be negotiated. | Stride says the political declaration makes it clear that the details of the future trade deal are yet to be negotiated. |
| John Redwood, a Conservative Brexiter, asks Stride if the government will publish figures showing the UK growth rate in the 25 years before it joined the EEC, and since it joined the single market in 1992. That will show how bad the EU has been for the UK. | John Redwood, a Conservative Brexiter, asks Stride if the government will publish figures showing the UK growth rate in the 25 years before it joined the EEC, and since it joined the single market in 1992. That will show how bad the EU has been for the UK. |
| Stride says he suspects Redwood has seen the figures already. | Stride says he suspects Redwood has seen the figures already. |
| Ken Clarke, the Tory former chancellor, asks Stride to accept that it is not possible to leave a free trade area and introduce barriers to trade without making the UK poorer. He says it is obvious the UK should stay in the single market and the customs union. | Ken Clarke, the Tory former chancellor, asks Stride to accept that it is not possible to leave a free trade area and introduce barriers to trade without making the UK poorer. He says it is obvious the UK should stay in the single market and the customs union. |
| John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, says the least that MPs could expect was an oral statement from the Philip Hammond. | John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, says the least that MPs could expect was an oral statement from the Philip Hammond. |
| He says we are now in the “ludicrous” position of having an economic analysis of plans based on the Chequers proposals, which the government has abandoned. | He says we are now in the “ludicrous” position of having an economic analysis of plans based on the Chequers proposals, which the government has abandoned. |
| He asks Stride to confirm that the deal on offer is worse for the UK than Chequers. | He asks Stride to confirm that the deal on offer is worse for the UK than Chequers. |
| He asks what assumptions the Treasury has made about extending the transition. | He asks what assumptions the Treasury has made about extending the transition. |
| Mel Stride, a junior Treasury minister, is responding to the UQ. | Mel Stride, a junior Treasury minister, is responding to the UQ. |
| The economic analysis has been published, he says. He says it is not a forecast. | The economic analysis has been published, he says. He says it is not a forecast. |
| It looks at five scenarios, he says. He says this analysis shows that the deal on the table is the best deal | It looks at five scenarios, he says. He says this analysis shows that the deal on the table is the best deal |
| Rachel Reeves, the Labour MP and chair of the business committee, raises a point of order. Why is Philip Hammond not hear to answer the UQ, she asks. She says he should be here on a such an urgent issue. He has had lots of time for broadcast interviews, she says. | Rachel Reeves, the Labour MP and chair of the business committee, raises a point of order. Why is Philip Hammond not hear to answer the UQ, she asks. She says he should be here on a such an urgent issue. He has had lots of time for broadcast interviews, she says. |
| Labour’s Liz Kendall says she has never heard a government say its policy will make people poorer. Is that what May came into politics for? | Labour’s Liz Kendall says she has never heard a government say its policy will make people poorer. Is that what May came into politics for? |
| May says she does not accept this. The economic analysis shows the economy will continue to grow, she says. | May says she does not accept this. The economic analysis shows the economy will continue to grow, she says. |