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| Brexit: Theresa May says McDonnell wants to overturn will of British people - Politics live | Brexit: Theresa May says McDonnell wants to overturn will of British people - Politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Elsewhere in headaches for the prime minister, Jeremy Corbyn has written an open letter denouncing the scale of poverty in Britain following the United Nations’ report last week. | |
| The scale of poverty in Britain shames this Tory Government. This is a national emergency which must no longer be ignored.My letter to @Theresa_May about the United Nations' report into poverty in the UK. pic.twitter.com/i7JdBmFySO | |
| Acknowledging that Brexit is “understandably dominating media headlines”, the leader of the opposition said that the government is failing to address the “burning injustices” that the poorest people in the UK face. | |
| Among other policy proposals, he announced that Labour would end the two-child policy in Universal Credit and would invest once again in the Blair-era Sure Start programme. | |
| Here is our social affairs correspondent Robert Booth’s report: | |
| Peter Mandelson, the remain-supporting Labour party grandee, has said that Brexit “scaremongering” isn’t scaremongering - and that there must be a people’s vote on the final deal. | |
| In an interview with LBC’s Eddie Mair, he also declared that “the public have got to dig the government out of the hole .. with another vote on this whole thing”. | |
| It’s not scaremongering, it’s analysis of actual proposals, actual conclusions that the government has reached and what we will all experience if we go forward with all this. I mean I would rather we didn’t, I feel that at the moment, we’re like a bunch of people driving towards er, Brexit, whatever the cost, without any idea of where we’re going to end up, but somehow, nobody wants to take the decision to take their foot off the accelerator because of how people voted in 2016. You know, because of the people’s will. Well, I think the only people who can determine what their will is now, are the people all over again. I just feel that the government’s dug themselves into a terrible hole, er, with this deal as they call it, erm if the deal goes down in the House of Commons, as people expect it will, then I think the public have got to dig the government out of the hole they’ve put themselves into er with another vote on this whole thing. | |
| He then went on to criticise the prime minister for refusing to publish the government’s Brexit legal advice, calling on her to “come clean”. | |
| I don’t see the logic of what she’s saying – I think she’s falling back on an old formula, what governments always say, but look, the whole Brexit thing was so badly mis-sold. The promises that were made, you know, two years ago, they haven’t been er delivered, I think it’s time for the government to come clean with people and publish the whole thing and let people, you know, judge it on its own merits or lack of them. I mean, they’ve gotta come clean with people that’s what people want because, you know, what they’re being offered now is not what they were promised originally, it’s a whole lot worse than we have now. We lose our frictionless trade with our nearest export market, but have to follow their rules with no say in making those rules, and let’s face it, the uncertainty will just go on forever because so many of the big questions remain unanswered by what Mrs. May is proposing. The argument isn’t going to stop and I say to business, people who say “oh let’s get behind Mrs. May because we want to end the uncertainty”, that forget it, this uncertainty is going to go on and on. This deal, certainty is the last thing this deal is going er, to give us, because as I say, all the main decisions are postponed and the argument inside the cabinet and the Tory party is going to go on and on if we were to leave next March. | |
| And his take on McDonnell’s “breakthrough” shift in positioning, which he says signals that Labour is moving towards support for a second vote: | |
| That’s quite a shift, that’s quite a breakthrough for him. I mean, the thing is though, surely, Eddie, we wouldn’t be contemplating either a general election or a People’s Vote, another referendum, unless, you know, Mrs. May’s deal goes down in the Commons. I think the Commons has got to have the first bite at it… | |
| Oh I have no doubt that they’re moving in the direction of a second vote, but that’s because they’re following public opinion and they should respect public opinion, I mean, at the moment I think it was the Daily Mail today that had a poll which said that the public now want a second referendum, a People’s Vote, by a majority of 48% to 34% so it’s very clear where the public’s heading. | |
| Here’s more from the Bank of England’s Mark Carney who is apparently seeking to downplay some of the doomsday scenarios that have been drawn from today’s Brexit impact analysis: | |
| “These are scenarios, not forecasts,” he said. “They illustrate what could happen, not necessarily what is most likely to happen.” | |
| He added that stress tests on the UK’s major lenders reveal that the “core of our financial system is strong”, with major banks having “capital ratios three and a half times higher than before the financial crisis”. | |
| The Canadian emphasised that major British banks have “ample liquidity to withstand a major market disruption”. | |
| “They hold more than 1 trillion of high-quality liquid assets and can access an additional 300 billion of liquidity through the Bank of England’s regular facilities. | |
| “Major UK banks now can withstand many months without access to wholesale or foreign exchange markets.” | |
| John McDonnell responds to the Bank of England’s Brexit forecasts: | John McDonnell responds to the Bank of England’s Brexit forecasts: |
| “The Bank has confirmed what other independent reports this week have been telling us: a No Deal Brexit could be even worse than the financial crisis of ten years ago, and the country would be much worse under Theresa May’s deal. | “The Bank has confirmed what other independent reports this week have been telling us: a No Deal Brexit could be even worse than the financial crisis of ten years ago, and the country would be much worse under Theresa May’s deal. |
| “Instead of ploughing on with this discredited deal the Government should set new priorities that would protect jobs and the economy.” | “Instead of ploughing on with this discredited deal the Government should set new priorities that would protect jobs and the economy.” |
| Meanwhile, the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has just filed this useful analysis of the shadow chancellor’s thinking. | Meanwhile, the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has just filed this useful analysis of the shadow chancellor’s thinking. |
| Our Scotland correspondent, Libby Brooks, was at this evening’s press conference near Glasgow. She has just filed this report: | Our Scotland correspondent, Libby Brooks, was at this evening’s press conference near Glasgow. She has just filed this report: |
| Theresa May has accused shadow chancellor John McDonnell of wanting to overturn the will of the British people, while urging MPs of all parties to consider the “significant responsibility” of deciding whether to support her Brexit deal in the Commons early next month. | Theresa May has accused shadow chancellor John McDonnell of wanting to overturn the will of the British people, while urging MPs of all parties to consider the “significant responsibility” of deciding whether to support her Brexit deal in the Commons early next month. |
| McDonnell told the BBC that it was “inevitable” that Labour would back a second referendum if May’s deal is defeated but the opposition is unable to force a general election. | McDonnell told the BBC that it was “inevitable” that Labour would back a second referendum if May’s deal is defeated but the opposition is unable to force a general election. |
| May said: “His comments about the second referendum today show that what the Labour Party want to do is frustrate Brexit. They want to overturn the will of the British people. Parliament overwhelmingly gave the British people a vote. They voted to Leave. I think it’s a matter of trust in politicians that they actually deliver on Brexit for the British people.” | May said: “His comments about the second referendum today show that what the Labour Party want to do is frustrate Brexit. They want to overturn the will of the British people. Parliament overwhelmingly gave the British people a vote. They voted to Leave. I think it’s a matter of trust in politicians that they actually deliver on Brexit for the British people.” |
| May was speaking after meeting workers at the Scottish Leather Group in Bridge of Weir, near Glasgow, as part of a UK-wide publicity blitz to sell her Brexit deal to the public ahead of the meaningful Commons vote in less than a fortnight, which she looks set to lose by a significant margin. | May was speaking after meeting workers at the Scottish Leather Group in Bridge of Weir, near Glasgow, as part of a UK-wide publicity blitz to sell her Brexit deal to the public ahead of the meaningful Commons vote in less than a fortnight, which she looks set to lose by a significant margin. |
| She denied that she was scared of debating Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has said that she wants to be included in the televised head-to-head between the prime minister and Jeremy Corbyn, adding: “This isn’t a question about debating leave or remain, it’s about looking ahead to a vote that is taking place in the Commons when MPs will be looking at the deal that the government has negotiated. I think people should be aware of what the proposals from the leader of the opposition are. From everything I’ve seen and heard he doesn’t have a plan for Brexit”. | She denied that she was scared of debating Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has said that she wants to be included in the televised head-to-head between the prime minister and Jeremy Corbyn, adding: “This isn’t a question about debating leave or remain, it’s about looking ahead to a vote that is taking place in the Commons when MPs will be looking at the deal that the government has negotiated. I think people should be aware of what the proposals from the leader of the opposition are. From everything I’ve seen and heard he doesn’t have a plan for Brexit”. |
| The prime minister was in Scotland for a matter of hours, travelling north after taking prime minister’s questions in the Commons and returning to London in the early evening. | The prime minister was in Scotland for a matter of hours, travelling north after taking prime minister’s questions in the Commons and returning to London in the early evening. |
| Asked how she intended to pull together sufficient support for her deal in the Commons, she said: “People are making a lot of statements and assumptions about what will happen. What I’m saying to MPs is that the vote is a moment of significant responsibility when MPs need to consider the need to deliver on the Brexit vote in a way that protects jobs and livelihoods in the UK.” | Asked how she intended to pull together sufficient support for her deal in the Commons, she said: “People are making a lot of statements and assumptions about what will happen. What I’m saying to MPs is that the vote is a moment of significant responsibility when MPs need to consider the need to deliver on the Brexit vote in a way that protects jobs and livelihoods in the UK.” |
| She said that she had not yet seen the Bank of England’s analysis released on Wednesday afternoon, which suggested that the pound would crash and inflation would soar under a no-deal Brexit, but that the government’s own modelling of a range of scenarios for leaving the EU, released earlier today, “clearly shows is that the best deal available that honours the referendum is the Government’s proposal.” | She said that she had not yet seen the Bank of England’s analysis released on Wednesday afternoon, which suggested that the pound would crash and inflation would soar under a no-deal Brexit, but that the government’s own modelling of a range of scenarios for leaving the EU, released earlier today, “clearly shows is that the best deal available that honours the referendum is the Government’s proposal.” |
| “If you look at the analysis, what it shows is that we would not be worse off compared to where we are today, our economy will grow in all of the scenarios, the question is how far the economy grows in all of those scenarios and there are different figures. What it shows is that the best deal that delivers on the referendum, offers to opportunities of Brexit and also protects jobs and the economy is the government’s deal.” | “If you look at the analysis, what it shows is that we would not be worse off compared to where we are today, our economy will grow in all of the scenarios, the question is how far the economy grows in all of those scenarios and there are different figures. What it shows is that the best deal that delivers on the referendum, offers to opportunities of Brexit and also protects jobs and the economy is the government’s deal.” |
| Here we have reaction from pro-Brexit MPs following the publication of the Bank of England’s Brexit impact assessment. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they have cast doubt on the findings. | Here we have reaction from pro-Brexit MPs following the publication of the Bank of England’s Brexit impact assessment. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they have cast doubt on the findings. |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg MP: “It is unusual for the Bank of England to talk down the pound and shows the Governor’s failure to understand his role. He is not there to create panic.” | Jacob Rees-Mogg MP: “It is unusual for the Bank of England to talk down the pound and shows the Governor’s failure to understand his role. He is not there to create panic.” |
| In further remarks to BBC Radio 4’s PM programme, the ERG leader said: “Bear in mind the Treasury said we would lose 800,000 jobs, up to, simply by voting to leave the European Union. That was nonsense. | In further remarks to BBC Radio 4’s PM programme, the ERG leader said: “Bear in mind the Treasury said we would lose 800,000 jobs, up to, simply by voting to leave the European Union. That was nonsense. |
| “It said we would have a punishment Brexit. That was nonsense .. The Treasury’s reputation has been for politicised forecasts which is why George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility to do it independently.” | “It said we would have a punishment Brexit. That was nonsense .. The Treasury’s reputation has been for politicised forecasts which is why George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility to do it independently.” |
| Charlie Elphicke MP, (Treasury Select Committee): “The other day Dr Carney told the Treasury Select Committee that interest rates could go down in a no deal Brexit. Today he says they will rise. The Bank of England is all over the place. No wonder former MPC member, Andrew Sentence, questions whether this is political rather than economic forecasting.” | Charlie Elphicke MP, (Treasury Select Committee): “The other day Dr Carney told the Treasury Select Committee that interest rates could go down in a no deal Brexit. Today he says they will rise. The Bank of England is all over the place. No wonder former MPC member, Andrew Sentence, questions whether this is political rather than economic forecasting.” |
| Simon Clarke MP (Treasury Select Committee): “The Bank of England produces forecasts modelling a wide range of possibilities, many of which they themselves say are extreme. This should not be read as a likely future forecast.“Our country’s fundamental strengths are enormous - as the Chancellor often says - and we should have confidence that we will succeed in any scenario.” | Simon Clarke MP (Treasury Select Committee): “The Bank of England produces forecasts modelling a wide range of possibilities, many of which they themselves say are extreme. This should not be read as a likely future forecast.“Our country’s fundamental strengths are enormous - as the Chancellor often says - and we should have confidence that we will succeed in any scenario.” |
| Priti Patel MP: “The Bank of England is undermining its credibility and independence by giving such prominence to these extreme economic forecasts and scenarios.” Marcus Fysh MP: “This is just the same old Bank of England stress testing. In no way a forecast.”Ben Bradley MP: “The Bank of England models all sorts of options that even they say are not predictions, and are based on extremes of circumstances in order to ‘stress test’.“The PM herself this week questioned the reliability of economic forecasting in the House, and we’ve seen practically every forecast about Brexit so far under-estimate the success of our economy. “The bank doesn’t publish the assumptions that underly these forecasts, maybe we should be asking them why?” | Priti Patel MP: “The Bank of England is undermining its credibility and independence by giving such prominence to these extreme economic forecasts and scenarios.” Marcus Fysh MP: “This is just the same old Bank of England stress testing. In no way a forecast.”Ben Bradley MP: “The Bank of England models all sorts of options that even they say are not predictions, and are based on extremes of circumstances in order to ‘stress test’.“The PM herself this week questioned the reliability of economic forecasting in the House, and we’ve seen practically every forecast about Brexit so far under-estimate the success of our economy. “The bank doesn’t publish the assumptions that underly these forecasts, maybe we should be asking them why?” |
| Theresa May is giving a brief press conference at the Scottish Leather Group in Bridge of Weir, Renfrewshire. | Theresa May is giving a brief press conference at the Scottish Leather Group in Bridge of Weir, Renfrewshire. |
| She has reassured the country that the government has been mindful of Scotland’s interests during the Brexit negotiations, saying that the ability to do trade deals around the world is of particular importance for premium Scottish products enjoyed around the world. | She has reassured the country that the government has been mindful of Scotland’s interests during the Brexit negotiations, saying that the ability to do trade deals around the world is of particular importance for premium Scottish products enjoyed around the world. |
| The prime minister said: “Scotland’s interests have been taken into account throughout the negotiations we’ve been doing. | The prime minister said: “Scotland’s interests have been taken into account throughout the negotiations we’ve been doing. |
| “For example, the free trade area that lies at the heart of our future economic partnership with the EU is crucial for employers here in Scotland and the opportunity to do trade deals around the world is important for those iconic Scottish products like smoked salmon and Scotch whisky.” | “For example, the free trade area that lies at the heart of our future economic partnership with the EU is crucial for employers here in Scotland and the opportunity to do trade deals around the world is important for those iconic Scottish products like smoked salmon and Scotch whisky.” |
| We’ll post more quotes from the presser as they come in. | We’ll post more quotes from the presser as they come in. |
| Her comments come amid accusations that she has been “running feart” of The National, the independence-supporting Scottish daily newspaper. | Her comments come amid accusations that she has been “running feart” of The National, the independence-supporting Scottish daily newspaper. |
| “No 10’s press office said “limited capacity” meant they wouldn’t be able to extend an invite to The National,” the paper reported. | “No 10’s press office said “limited capacity” meant they wouldn’t be able to extend an invite to The National,” the paper reported. |
| “It’s the second time in as many weeks that our reporters have been denied a chance to hold top Tory government officials to account.” | “It’s the second time in as many weeks that our reporters have been denied a chance to hold top Tory government officials to account.” |
| Thanks Andrew. | Thanks Andrew. |
| John McDonnell has elaborated upon his widely reported remarks from earlier today. In an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg he suggested that Labour would “inevitably” back a second referendum in the event of the prime minister’s Brexit deal being defeated in the Commons, so long as the party is unable to force a general election. | John McDonnell has elaborated upon his widely reported remarks from earlier today. In an interview with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg he suggested that Labour would “inevitably” back a second referendum in the event of the prime minister’s Brexit deal being defeated in the Commons, so long as the party is unable to force a general election. |
| The shadow chancellor has now told ITV that Labour’s position on a people’s vote hasn’t changed, and that if it does eventually support another referendum it would be because the government has forced it. Resisting the temptation to reject hypotheticals, he added that he would vote Remain in such an event (back in September he did not think Remain should be on any potential ballot paper). | The shadow chancellor has now told ITV that Labour’s position on a people’s vote hasn’t changed, and that if it does eventually support another referendum it would be because the government has forced it. Resisting the temptation to reject hypotheticals, he added that he would vote Remain in such an event (back in September he did not think Remain should be on any potential ballot paper). |
| NEW: @johnmcdonnellMP has told @itvnews he’s not giving up the demand for a general election if PM loses meaningful vote. Says Labour’s position hasn’t changed on a people’s vote and if it does end up backing one it’ll be because the govt forces it. He says he’d vote Remain. pic.twitter.com/No3H8IrTjj | NEW: @johnmcdonnellMP has told @itvnews he’s not giving up the demand for a general election if PM loses meaningful vote. Says Labour’s position hasn’t changed on a people’s vote and if it does end up backing one it’ll be because the govt forces it. He says he’d vote Remain. pic.twitter.com/No3H8IrTjj |
| It is worth mentioning that PoliticsHome reported earlier that a senior Labour source insisted that McDonnell’s words to Kuenssberg did not represent what he or the party thinks. “Make up your own mind,” Kevin Schofield tweeted. | It is worth mentioning that PoliticsHome reported earlier that a senior Labour source insisted that McDonnell’s words to Kuenssberg did not represent what he or the party thinks. “Make up your own mind,” Kevin Schofield tweeted. |
| Senior Labour source insists John McDonnell's words to @bbclaurak do not represent what he or the Labour party thinks. Make up your own mind.https://t.co/8xVPzGPIPJ | Senior Labour source insists John McDonnell's words to @bbclaurak do not represent what he or the Labour party thinks. Make up your own mind.https://t.co/8xVPzGPIPJ |
| And while we’re on the subject of a second referendum, in this week’s magazine James Forsyth, the Spectators’s political editor, speculates about Theresa May doing a U-turn and embracing the idea if she loses the vote on the Brexit deal. He says: | And while we’re on the subject of a second referendum, in this week’s magazine James Forsyth, the Spectators’s political editor, speculates about Theresa May doing a U-turn and embracing the idea if she loses the vote on the Brexit deal. He says: |
| But what can May do, given that she wants her deal to pass? Well, there is one route that might work for her: a second referendum. If the Commons won’t back her deal, then maybe the country will. | But what can May do, given that she wants her deal to pass? Well, there is one route that might work for her: a second referendum. If the Commons won’t back her deal, then maybe the country will. |
| This would require a massive volte-face from May, but it does offer a way to break the log jam in the way that another general election does not, given that two of the last three elections have delivered hung parliaments. Interestingly, a growing number of full-bore Brexiteers are optimistic that they could win a referendum in these circumstances, which means there might not be full-scale opposition to the idea of a three-question second referendum. | This would require a massive volte-face from May, but it does offer a way to break the log jam in the way that another general election does not, given that two of the last three elections have delivered hung parliaments. Interestingly, a growing number of full-bore Brexiteers are optimistic that they could win a referendum in these circumstances, which means there might not be full-scale opposition to the idea of a three-question second referendum. |
| I’m finishing now. My colleague Mattha Busby is now taking over. | I’m finishing now. My colleague Mattha Busby is now taking over. |
| Opinion is divided about the significance of John McDonnell’s comment about it being “inevitable” that Labour will end up backing a second referendum. (See 3.08pm.) The Labour peer Andrew Adonis thinks this is significant. | Opinion is divided about the significance of John McDonnell’s comment about it being “inevitable” that Labour will end up backing a second referendum. (See 3.08pm.) The Labour peer Andrew Adonis thinks this is significant. |
| John McDonnell’s statement today on Labour moving towards a people’s vote is very significantReferendum next May | John McDonnell’s statement today on Labour moving towards a people’s vote is very significantReferendum next May |
| But Adonis is about the most diehard supporter of a second referendum in British public life, and so he would say this. (A colleague recently recommended, as a thought experiment, trying to find anyone who thinks a second referendum is likely who does not actually want one to happen; it’s almost impossible.) Others think McDonnell was effectively just restating Labour policy, and that nothing has changed. This is from PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield. | But Adonis is about the most diehard supporter of a second referendum in British public life, and so he would say this. (A colleague recently recommended, as a thought experiment, trying to find anyone who thinks a second referendum is likely who does not actually want one to happen; it’s almost impossible.) Others think McDonnell was effectively just restating Labour policy, and that nothing has changed. This is from PoliticsHome’s Kevin Schofield. |
| Senior Labour source insists John McDonnell's words to @bbclaurak do not represent what he or the Labour party thinks. Make up your own mind.https://t.co/8xVPzGPIPJ | Senior Labour source insists John McDonnell's words to @bbclaurak do not represent what he or the Labour party thinks. Make up your own mind.https://t.co/8xVPzGPIPJ |
| One problem is that the Press Association reported McDonnell as suggesting that it was “inevitable” that a second referendum would take place. That is based on McDonnell replying “that’s right” when it was put to him that it would be inevitable that there would be another vote. (See 3.08pm.) But in covering politics it is always important to bear in mind what people mean as well as what they say, and it is clear from the context that McDonnell was not predicting a second referendum. He was just accepting that Labour would end up calling for one. | One problem is that the Press Association reported McDonnell as suggesting that it was “inevitable” that a second referendum would take place. That is based on McDonnell replying “that’s right” when it was put to him that it would be inevitable that there would be another vote. (See 3.08pm.) But in covering politics it is always important to bear in mind what people mean as well as what they say, and it is clear from the context that McDonnell was not predicting a second referendum. He was just accepting that Labour would end up calling for one. |
| That is of interest in itself, because implicitly he was accepting that the Labour strategy of trying to engineer a general election will fail. That is not something that Jeremy Corbyn or his staff have admitted do bluntly. | That is of interest in itself, because implicitly he was accepting that the Labour strategy of trying to engineer a general election will fail. That is not something that Jeremy Corbyn or his staff have admitted do bluntly. |
| But it is still a huge leap from Labour backing a second referendum to one actually taking place. Here are three reasons why. | But it is still a huge leap from Labour backing a second referendum to one actually taking place. Here are three reasons why. |
| 1 - Jeremy Corbyn cannot be certain to win a vote on a second referendum by telling his MPs to support one in the Commons. Other opposition parties are in favour, around a dozen Conservative MPs have publicly backed the idea, and it is thought that dozens more are persuadable. But some Labour MPs are strongly opposed, and would vote against the party whip to oppose a second referendum. If Corbyn were to whip his MPs on this issue, he would probably win - but that is not inevitable. | 1 - Jeremy Corbyn cannot be certain to win a vote on a second referendum by telling his MPs to support one in the Commons. Other opposition parties are in favour, around a dozen Conservative MPs have publicly backed the idea, and it is thought that dozens more are persuadable. But some Labour MPs are strongly opposed, and would vote against the party whip to oppose a second referendum. If Corbyn were to whip his MPs on this issue, he would probably win - but that is not inevitable. |
| 2 - A second referendum would require legislation, and that would only happen if the government was led by a PM committed to make it happen. Yet McDonnell seems to be accepting that an early election is not likely to happen. Perhaps Theresa May will be replaced by a Tory leader backing a second referendum. Perhaps Corbyn, or someone else, will end up leading a coalition government committed to holding a people’s vote. Or perhaps May will perform one of the biggest U-turns in history and come out in favour? None of these options seems especially likely. But unless something likes this happen, a referendum bill will not get through parliament. | 2 - A second referendum would require legislation, and that would only happen if the government was led by a PM committed to make it happen. Yet McDonnell seems to be accepting that an early election is not likely to happen. Perhaps Theresa May will be replaced by a Tory leader backing a second referendum. Perhaps Corbyn, or someone else, will end up leading a coalition government committed to holding a people’s vote. Or perhaps May will perform one of the biggest U-turns in history and come out in favour? None of these options seems especially likely. But unless something likes this happen, a referendum bill will not get through parliament. |
| 3 - The EU would have to agree to suspend article 50 to allow time for a referendum to be held. An excellent Constitution Unit paper (pdf) on this subject published last month concluded that passing the legislation and then holding the referendum would take 22 weeks. (See below.) EU leaders want the UK to stay, and article 50 can be suspended by unanimity. But European parliamentary elections are taking place in May and if the referendum were to take place after then (which would probably be inevitable, given the timetabling issues), then having the UK as a member of the EU but without MEPs starts to create enormous problems. As the Constitution Unit says: | 3 - The EU would have to agree to suspend article 50 to allow time for a referendum to be held. An excellent Constitution Unit paper (pdf) on this subject published last month concluded that passing the legislation and then holding the referendum would take 22 weeks. (See below.) EU leaders want the UK to stay, and article 50 can be suspended by unanimity. But European parliamentary elections are taking place in May and if the referendum were to take place after then (which would probably be inevitable, given the timetabling issues), then having the UK as a member of the EU but without MEPs starts to create enormous problems. As the Constitution Unit says: |
| While a short delay to the UK’s participation in the election of MEPs might be possible without causing huge problems, a lengthy delay would be more problematic. As the European Parliament does not sit in August, muddling through without UK representatives in July might be possible. A delay extending into the autumn would be more difficult to accommodate, and legal and political difficulties would mount. | While a short delay to the UK’s participation in the election of MEPs might be possible without causing huge problems, a lengthy delay would be more problematic. As the European Parliament does not sit in August, muddling through without UK representatives in July might be possible. A delay extending into the autumn would be more difficult to accommodate, and legal and political difficulties would mount. |
| All of which means a second referendum is anything but inevitable. A slim possibility would be a better description. | All of which means a second referendum is anything but inevitable. A slim possibility would be a better description. |
| And here is more from the Press Association report about the Bank of England Brexit analysis. | And here is more from the Press Association report about the Bank of England Brexit analysis. |
| In the event of a disruptive Brexit, where there is no change to border trade or financial markets, GDP may fall 3% from its level in the first quarter in 2019. | In the event of a disruptive Brexit, where there is no change to border trade or financial markets, GDP may fall 3% from its level in the first quarter in 2019. |
| In this scenario, the unemployment rate will hit 5.75% and inflation rises to 4.25%. | In this scenario, the unemployment rate will hit 5.75% and inflation rises to 4.25%. |
| House prices decline 14% and commercial property prices fall 27%. The pound would fall by 15% against the US dollar to £1.10. | House prices decline 14% and commercial property prices fall 27%. The pound would fall by 15% against the US dollar to £1.10. |
| However, major British banks have “levels of capital and liquidity to withstand even a severe economic shock that could be associated with a disorderly Brexit”, the Bank concluded from tests of banks’ financial resilience. | However, major British banks have “levels of capital and liquidity to withstand even a severe economic shock that could be associated with a disorderly Brexit”, the Bank concluded from tests of banks’ financial resilience. |
| Britain’s banking system is “strong enough to continue to serve UK households and businesses even in the event of a disorderly Brexit”, the Bank said. | Britain’s banking system is “strong enough to continue to serve UK households and businesses even in the event of a disorderly Brexit”, the Bank said. |