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| Brexit: McDonnell says it is 'inevitable' Labour will back second referendum - Politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has suggested it is “inevitable” that Labour will back a second referendum if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons but the party is unable to force a general election. McDonnell told the BBC: | John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, has suggested it is “inevitable” that Labour will back a second referendum if Theresa May’s Brexit deal is defeated in the Commons but the party is unable to force a general election. McDonnell told the BBC: |
| We want a deal that will protect jobs and the economy. If we can’t achieve that - the government can’t achieve that - we should have a general election but that’s very difficult to do because of the nature of the legislation that David Cameron brought forward. | We want a deal that will protect jobs and the economy. If we can’t achieve that - the government can’t achieve that - we should have a general election but that’s very difficult to do because of the nature of the legislation that David Cameron brought forward. |
| If that’s not possible, we’ll be calling upon the government then to join us in a public vote. It’s difficult to judge each stage, but that’s the sequence I think that we’ll inevitably go through over this period. | If that’s not possible, we’ll be calling upon the government then to join us in a public vote. It’s difficult to judge each stage, but that’s the sequence I think that we’ll inevitably go through over this period. |
| BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg asked the shadow chancellor: “It is inevitable that if a vote of no confidence didn’t bring down the government and a general election, it is inevitable - to use that word that you just used - that there’d be another vote?” McDonnell replied: | BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg asked the shadow chancellor: “It is inevitable that if a vote of no confidence didn’t bring down the government and a general election, it is inevitable - to use that word that you just used - that there’d be another vote?” McDonnell replied: |
| That’s right. Our policy is if we can’t get a general election, then the other option which we’ve kept on the table is a people’s vote. | That’s right. Our policy is if we can’t get a general election, then the other option which we’ve kept on the table is a people’s vote. |
| Is McDonnell stepping more closely to another referendum? sounds like it here... listen for yourself https://t.co/L4kIIEYAbL | Is McDonnell stepping more closely to another referendum? sounds like it here... listen for yourself https://t.co/L4kIIEYAbL |
| In advance of Theresa May’s visit to Scotland this afternoon, the Scottish government’s constitutional relations secretary, Michael Russell, has accused the prime minister of trying to “cover up” the damage done by Brexit in the just-published Brexit analysis. Russell said: | In advance of Theresa May’s visit to Scotland this afternoon, the Scottish government’s constitutional relations secretary, Michael Russell, has accused the prime minister of trying to “cover up” the damage done by Brexit in the just-published Brexit analysis. Russell said: |
| The UK government is now wilfully and disgracefully pressing ahead with a policy it knows will hit living standards and the economy. | The UK government is now wilfully and disgracefully pressing ahead with a policy it knows will hit living standards and the economy. |
| Worse, it is trying to cover up the scale of the damage by modelling proposals it put forward in the summer that the EU has already rejected, instead of the blindfold Brexit they are actually proposing. | Worse, it is trying to cover up the scale of the damage by modelling proposals it put forward in the summer that the EU has already rejected, instead of the blindfold Brexit they are actually proposing. |
| Meanwhile, the Westminster Brexit publicity blitz continues with May’s deputy David Lidington booked to give evidence to a joint meeting of Holyrood’s finance and Europe committees tomorrow afternoon. Lidington visited Edinburgh last Friday but was rebuked by first minister Nicola Sturgeon for giving her too little notice to arrange a meeting. We’re still waiting to hear whether Sturgeon will manage to meet May while she is in Scotland today. | Meanwhile, the Westminster Brexit publicity blitz continues with May’s deputy David Lidington booked to give evidence to a joint meeting of Holyrood’s finance and Europe committees tomorrow afternoon. Lidington visited Edinburgh last Friday but was rebuked by first minister Nicola Sturgeon for giving her too little notice to arrange a meeting. We’re still waiting to hear whether Sturgeon will manage to meet May while she is in Scotland today. |
| The European court of justice will deliver the opinion from its advocate general in the case about whether the UK can revoke article 50 next Tuesday. | The European court of justice will deliver the opinion from its advocate general in the case about whether the UK can revoke article 50 next Tuesday. |
| #Brexit: Case C-621/18 Wightman on revocation of Article 50 - Advocate General Campos Sánchez-Bordona will deliver his opinion on 4th December | #Brexit: Case C-621/18 Wightman on revocation of Article 50 - Advocate General Campos Sánchez-Bordona will deliver his opinion on 4th December |
| UPDATE: I’ve corrected this. The opinion from the advocate general is not the same as the court’s judgement, which is how I described it earlier. | UPDATE: I’ve corrected this. The opinion from the advocate general is not the same as the court’s judgement, which is how I described it earlier. |
| Hi Andrew, the opinion of the Advocate General isn't exactly the same as the ruling. I believe @davidallengreen compared it to Mark Lawrenson giving his premier league predictions earlier... | Hi Andrew, the opinion of the Advocate General isn't exactly the same as the ruling. I believe @davidallengreen compared it to Mark Lawrenson giving his premier league predictions earlier... |
| FURTHER UPDATE: In the comments LostinBruges has more on the significance of the advocate general’s opinion. S/he posted this: | |
| The Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) has one judge from each Member State, assisted by eleven advocates general whose role is to consider the written and oral submissions to the court in every case that raises a new point of law, and deliver an impartial opinion to the court on the legal solution. Although Advocates General are full members of the court, they do not take part in the court’s deliberations, and the Advocate General’s opinion is not binding on the court. Although the court reaches the same solution as the Advocate General more often than not, it cannot usually be stated that the advocate general’s opinion has been ‘followed’ in any given case, because the court may have reached the same conclusion via different legal reasoning. The role of Advocate General is created by Article 19(2) of the Treaty on European Union and Articles 253 and 254 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. | |
| Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman was keen to pour cold water on the idea that John McDonnell’s comment at a Guardian Live event last night, that a second referendum was an option Labour could “seize upon”, could mark a shift in Labour’s stance. | Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman was keen to pour cold water on the idea that John McDonnell’s comment at a Guardian Live event last night, that a second referendum was an option Labour could “seize upon”, could mark a shift in Labour’s stance. |
| Asked about it after PMQs, he gave a prolix recitation of Labour’s position, as agreed at the party’s conference in Liverpool, that should the government lose the vote, and a general election not be called, “all options would be on the table”. | Asked about it after PMQs, he gave a prolix recitation of Labour’s position, as agreed at the party’s conference in Liverpool, that should the government lose the vote, and a general election not be called, “all options would be on the table”. |
| However, he insisted that, “we do not regard no deal as any kind of option” and declined to set out any others, aside from trying to rally parliament behind Labour’s alternative approach. | However, he insisted that, “we do not regard no deal as any kind of option” and declined to set out any others, aside from trying to rally parliament behind Labour’s alternative approach. |
| We’ve set our alternative plan for a deal that would work for the whole country. The key point is that the option of Labour’s alternative plan has to be on the table, and we believe there is majority support for it in parliament, and it would also command majority support in the country, across both Leave and Remain voters. | We’ve set our alternative plan for a deal that would work for the whole country. The key point is that the option of Labour’s alternative plan has to be on the table, and we believe there is majority support for it in parliament, and it would also command majority support in the country, across both Leave and Remain voters. |
| Asked whether Labour would immediately table a vote of no confidence in the government, if the vote on 11 December falls, he said: | Asked whether Labour would immediately table a vote of no confidence in the government, if the vote on 11 December falls, he said: |
| If the government is unable to get its deal through parliament on something that’s absolutely crucial to its entire programme and to the future of the country, it will have lost the confidence of parliament in any case. | If the government is unable to get its deal through parliament on something that’s absolutely crucial to its entire programme and to the future of the country, it will have lost the confidence of parliament in any case. |
| Corbyn’s spokesman repeated Labour’s opposition to a Norway-style deal - an option that appears to be gaining ground in Westminster. “We’ve said in relation to the Norway option that we just don’t think it works for Britain and we’ve said that all along,” he said. | Corbyn’s spokesman repeated Labour’s opposition to a Norway-style deal - an option that appears to be gaining ground in Westminster. “We’ve said in relation to the Norway option that we just don’t think it works for Britain and we’ve said that all along,” he said. |
| Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is now using a point of order to ask about the government’s decision to defy the binding Commons vote saying it must publish the full text of its legal advice on Brexit. He says John Bercow, the speaker, said at the time of the debate that the motion was binding. | Sir Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, is now using a point of order to ask about the government’s decision to defy the binding Commons vote saying it must publish the full text of its legal advice on Brexit. He says John Bercow, the speaker, said at the time of the debate that the motion was binding. |
| He says a written statement today says Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, will make a statement to MPs on Monday. But he says he is deeply concerned about what Philip Hammond said this morning about the government refusing to publish the legal advice in full. (See 9.40am.) | He says a written statement today says Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, will make a statement to MPs on Monday. But he says he is deeply concerned about what Philip Hammond said this morning about the government refusing to publish the legal advice in full. (See 9.40am.) |
| Bercow says if Starmer is sure that ministers are not complying with the humble addresss, he could write to Bercow saying the House is subject to a contempt, and it will be for Bercow to deal with it. “I will not linger,”, he says. | Bercow says if Starmer is sure that ministers are not complying with the humble addresss, he could write to Bercow saying the House is subject to a contempt, and it will be for Bercow to deal with it. “I will not linger,”, he says. |
| (Bercow was just setting out the procedure, but he did so in such a way as to suggest the Starmer might not be wasting his time. And Starmer knew what the procedure is anyway, because he tried all this a year ago. See 10.57am. The point of order was really just about signalling what Labour will do next.) | (Bercow was just setting out the procedure, but he did so in such a way as to suggest the Starmer might not be wasting his time. And Starmer knew what the procedure is anyway, because he tried all this a year ago. See 10.57am. The point of order was really just about signalling what Labour will do next.) |
| Starmer signals Labour will seek debate accusing ministers of contempt of parliament over Brexit legal advice. | Starmer signals Labour will seek debate accusing ministers of contempt of parliament over Brexit legal advice. |
| Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, says he agrees with Starmer. Bercow says Dodds could write to him too. | Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, says he agrees with Starmer. Bercow says Dodds could write to him too. |
| In a speech this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, rejected the government’s claim that Brexit would make the UK poorer. He said: | In a speech this morning David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, rejected the government’s claim that Brexit would make the UK poorer. He said: |
| Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong. | Treasury forecasts in the past have almost never been right and have more often been dramatically wrong. |
| As the Press Association reports, Davis said predictions the UK economy would contract by 2.1% in the 18 months after the Leave vote were unfounded, with it actually growing by 2.8%. He also said that other negative forecasts around unemployment and family incomes were also unfounded. | As the Press Association reports, Davis said predictions the UK economy would contract by 2.1% in the 18 months after the Leave vote were unfounded, with it actually growing by 2.8%. He also said that other negative forecasts around unemployment and family incomes were also unfounded. |
| None of this spine-chilling nonsense came to pass. | None of this spine-chilling nonsense came to pass. |
| Davis suggested a Brexit scenario in which the UK reverts to a free trade deal with the EU based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules could benefit the economy. “It would involve all the choking tentacles of the EU falling away,” he said. As the Press Association reports, Davis said UK exports to non-EU countries had grown four times faster than exports to the EU. | Davis suggested a Brexit scenario in which the UK reverts to a free trade deal with the EU based on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules could benefit the economy. “It would involve all the choking tentacles of the EU falling away,” he said. As the Press Association reports, Davis said UK exports to non-EU countries had grown four times faster than exports to the EU. |
| The future of the UK economy does not lie with the EU but with the wider world. | The future of the UK economy does not lie with the EU but with the wider world. |
| Here is more from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on the government’s Brexit impact analysis. | Here is more from John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, on the government’s Brexit impact analysis. |
| We’re in the ludicrous position of seeing an analysis produced today on the economic implications of Brexit which is in fact an assessment of the Chequers proposals abandoned months ago. | We’re in the ludicrous position of seeing an analysis produced today on the economic implications of Brexit which is in fact an assessment of the Chequers proposals abandoned months ago. |
| The government has been unable to assess the vague, half-baked deal the PM is promising, but what we do know is the latest proposals are worse than even the Chequers deal. | The government has been unable to assess the vague, half-baked deal the PM is promising, but what we do know is the latest proposals are worse than even the Chequers deal. |
| What the analysis produced by the Treasury today does show us is that the Tories plans will leave the country poorer. | What the analysis produced by the Treasury today does show us is that the Tories plans will leave the country poorer. |
| Theresa May’s spokesman was asked after PMQs whether the government accepted that all the Brexit scenarios modelled in the Whitehall analysis - including the prime minister’s deal - will make Britain poorer. He replied: | Theresa May’s spokesman was asked after PMQs whether the government accepted that all the Brexit scenarios modelled in the Whitehall analysis - including the prime minister’s deal - will make Britain poorer. He replied: |
| I think what the prime minister said in there was that in all scenarios set out today the economy will continue to grow As the PM said, she believes she secured is the best available that’s consistent with the referendum - and today’s analysis backs that up.” | I think what the prime minister said in there was that in all scenarios set out today the economy will continue to grow As the PM said, she believes she secured is the best available that’s consistent with the referendum - and today’s analysis backs that up.” |
| He added that the analysis doesn’t take into account “other decisions the government may make”, such as a souped-up industrial strategy. | He added that the analysis doesn’t take into account “other decisions the government may make”, such as a souped-up industrial strategy. |
| Pressed further, the spokesman threw a revealing question back at journalists, asking: | Pressed further, the spokesman threw a revealing question back at journalists, asking: |
| Do you believe that when elected politicians ask the view of the public in a referendum, those same politicians should just be able to ignore that instruction? A country in which politicians ignore the will of the people, in what was the biggest democratic exercise in our history risks becoming divided, and divided countries do not prosper. | Do you believe that when elected politicians ask the view of the public in a referendum, those same politicians should just be able to ignore that instruction? A country in which politicians ignore the will of the people, in what was the biggest democratic exercise in our history risks becoming divided, and divided countries do not prosper. |
| In other words, as ministers can’t quite bring themselves to say, yes Brexit may make the economy poorer than it would otherwise have been; but voters made a decision that other factors - sovereignty, control of migration - were more important. | In other words, as ministers can’t quite bring themselves to say, yes Brexit may make the economy poorer than it would otherwise have been; but voters made a decision that other factors - sovereignty, control of migration - were more important. |
| Here is Torsten Bell, the director of the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focusing on inquality, on the government’s economic analysis. | Here is Torsten Bell, the director of the Resolution Foundation, a thinktank focusing on inquality, on the government’s economic analysis. |
| We've got little idea where between and FTA and Chequers we'll end up even if negotiations proceed from current deal. But big picture the analysis accepts that something in that space means a big hit to GDP (3.9%) and (more importantly for living standards) to GDP/capita (2.7%) pic.twitter.com/0iqkljurJF | We've got little idea where between and FTA and Chequers we'll end up even if negotiations proceed from current deal. But big picture the analysis accepts that something in that space means a big hit to GDP (3.9%) and (more importantly for living standards) to GDP/capita (2.7%) pic.twitter.com/0iqkljurJF |
| Back in the Commons, where the UQ is still going on, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna raises the same point that that Anna Soubry did. (See 1.14pm.) He says he and Soubry tabled an amendment to the finance bill demanding a Brexit analysis, and they only withdrew it because the Treasury promised it would publish an analysis of the government’s plan. But today’s analysis does not provide that, he says. He suggests he and Soubry were “misled”. | Back in the Commons, where the UQ is still going on, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna raises the same point that that Anna Soubry did. (See 1.14pm.) He says he and Soubry tabled an amendment to the finance bill demanding a Brexit analysis, and they only withdrew it because the Treasury promised it would publish an analysis of the government’s plan. But today’s analysis does not provide that, he says. He suggests he and Soubry were “misled”. |
| Stride says the government cannot model precisely what its plan will be because the political spectrum sets a framework covering a spectrum of outcomes. | Stride says the government cannot model precisely what its plan will be because the political spectrum sets a framework covering a spectrum of outcomes. |
| David Henig, the trade specialist and former civil servant who heads the UK Trade Policy Project, has also posted useful thread on Twitter about the government’s economic analysis. He thinks it is “fraudulent”. His thread starts here. | David Henig, the trade specialist and former civil servant who heads the UK Trade Policy Project, has also posted useful thread on Twitter about the government’s economic analysis. He thinks it is “fraudulent”. His thread starts here. |
| So the Government has modelled an imaginary scenario based on the Chequers proposals that the EU has rejected. The figures, which then show it isn't that different to remain, are therefore of little use... https://t.co/byMvjfMGA5 pic.twitter.com/lVtusOaP5z | So the Government has modelled an imaginary scenario based on the Chequers proposals that the EU has rejected. The figures, which then show it isn't that different to remain, are therefore of little use... https://t.co/byMvjfMGA5 pic.twitter.com/lVtusOaP5z |
| Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economic spokeswoman, has posted a useful thread on Twitter with excerpts from government’s Brexit economic analysis, with comment. It starts here. | Kirsty Blackman, the SNP’s economic spokeswoman, has posted a useful thread on Twitter with excerpts from government’s Brexit economic analysis, with comment. It starts here. |
| Some excerpts from the UK Government’s Brexit analysis. (Short version: despite trying to manipulate the figures to make May’s deal look better, it still stinks) | Some excerpts from the UK Government’s Brexit analysis. (Short version: despite trying to manipulate the figures to make May’s deal look better, it still stinks) |
| Here is the CBI reaction to the government’s Brexit impact assessment. It’s from the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith. | Here is the CBI reaction to the government’s Brexit impact assessment. It’s from the CBI’s chief economist, Rain Newton-Smith. |
| These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy. | These forecasts paint a bleak picture over the long-term of a no deal Brexit or a Canada-style deal. It surely puts to bed some of the more far-fetched ideas that a hard landing Brexit will not seriously hurt the economy. |
| This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future. | This is about real people’s lives and jobs in the years ahead and it’s clear to business that while the government’s deal is not perfect, it certainly fits the bill in reducing short-term uncertainty and opens up a route to a decent trade deal in the future. |
| The SNP has accused Theresa May of having her “head in the sand” because at PMQs she refused to agree with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about Brexit making the UK poorer. (See 12.09pm and 12.22pm.) | The SNP has accused Theresa May of having her “head in the sand” because at PMQs she refused to agree with Philip Hammond, the chancellor, about Brexit making the UK poorer. (See 12.09pm and 12.22pm.) |
| In response Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Wesminster, said: | In response Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Wesminster, said: |
| The chancellor explained that every possible Brexit scenario will make the UK poorer, yes astoundingly, Theresa May denied these comments in prime minister’s questions. | The chancellor explained that every possible Brexit scenario will make the UK poorer, yes astoundingly, Theresa May denied these comments in prime minister’s questions. |
| The chancellor’s comments chime with analysis published yesterday by the Scottish government, which shows that most likely outcome of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the EU will hit Scotland’s GDP growth by £9 billion, leaving every Scot £1,600 worse off. | The chancellor’s comments chime with analysis published yesterday by the Scottish government, which shows that most likely outcome of the UK’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration on the future relationship with the EU will hit Scotland’s GDP growth by £9 billion, leaving every Scot £1,600 worse off. |
| No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer. Theresa May’s head is in the sand. | No government should choose to weaken its economy and make its citizens poorer. Theresa May’s head is in the sand. |