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Downturn points to cut in rates Downturn points to cut in rates
(about 8 hours later)
The Bank of England's rate-setters begin their monthly meeting on Wednesday with a range of groups predicting rates will be cut from 4.5%. The Bank of England begins its monthly meeting on Wednesday amid calls for the biggest interest rate cut in 15 years.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is calling for a cut to 4% in its economic outlook that predicts recession in 2009. The Bank is widely expected to cut rates from 4.5% as its tries to prevent a long and painful recession.
The downturn is also evident in a KPMG report showing job vacancies falling at the fastest rate in the report's 11 year history. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is calling for a cut to 4% in its economic outlook which predicts a recession in 2009.
But some business groups want the Bank to go further and cut rates by one percentage point to 3.5%, which would be the biggest cut since 1993.
The interest rate decision will be announced at midday GMT on Thursday.The interest rate decision will be announced at midday GMT on Thursday.
'Calmer waters''Calmer waters'
Last month, the Bank cut its base rate from 5% to 4.5%. Last month, the Bank cut its base rate from 5% to 4.5% in an emergency co-ordinated move by the world's central banks.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) is calling for a cut to 4% on Thursday but says rates will need to fall further.
PwC predicts that the UK economy will grow by 1% this year and shrink 0.5% in 2009 before reaching "calmer waters in 2010".PwC predicts that the UK economy will grow by 1% this year and shrink 0.5% in 2009 before reaching "calmer waters in 2010".
"The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee needs to cut interest rates progressively to 3% or lower in order to prepare the economy for the recovery we hope to see in 2010," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC, adding that it needs to start by cutting to 4% on Thursday. "The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee needs to cut interest rates progressively to 3% or lower in order to prepare the economy for the recovery we hope to see in 2010," said John Hawksworth, head of macroeconomics at PwC.
The report also calls for the government to take stimulus measures such as bringing forward some of the public spending that is currently planned for future years. The report also calls for the government to introduce stimulus measures, such as bringing forward some of the public spending that is currently planned for future years.
However, David Smith, the chief executive of Jaguar Land Rover, said a dramatic one percentage point was "absolutely vital" to kick start the economy.
"We need a real shock to the system that a significant rate cut will provide. Stimulating demand is crucial to avoid a deep and long recession, and interest rates are the place to start," Mr Smith said.
Growing confidenceGrowing confidence
The downturn is also evident in a KPMG report showing job vacancies falling at the fastest rate in the report's 11 year history.
KPMG's jobs report found demand for staff had fallen heavily.KPMG's jobs report found demand for staff had fallen heavily.
Recruitment consultants they polled reported that the number of people getting permanent or temporary jobs had been the lowest in the 11 years that the data had been collected as had the number of vacancies available.Recruitment consultants they polled reported that the number of people getting permanent or temporary jobs had been the lowest in the 11 years that the data had been collected as had the number of vacancies available.
There was one better piece of news from Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index, which showed the first monthly increase in confidence this year.There was one better piece of news from Nationwide Building Society's consumer confidence index, which showed the first monthly increase in confidence this year.
Consumers were more pessimistic about the current economic climate but had become significantly more optimistic about how the economy would look in six months time.Consumers were more pessimistic about the current economic climate but had become significantly more optimistic about how the economy would look in six months time.
"The actions taken by the government and the Bank of England to support financial markets do seem to have buoyed consumers' confidence and could be responsible for the increased confidence in the future economic situation," said Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley."The actions taken by the government and the Bank of England to support financial markets do seem to have buoyed consumers' confidence and could be responsible for the increased confidence in the future economic situation," said Nationwide's chief economist Fionnuala Earley.
But while confidence has improved compared with September, with a reading up from 51 to 55, it has plummeted since October 2007 when it was at 91.But while confidence has improved compared with September, with a reading up from 51 to 55, it has plummeted since October 2007 when it was at 91.
Nationwide said there was a 40% chance that interest rates would be cut by half a point to 4% and a remarkable 55% chance that they would go to 3.75%. Nationwide said there was a 40% chance that interest rates would be cut by half a point to 4%, and a 55% chance that they would be cut to 3.75%.