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| Brett Kavanaugh: Senate to hold crucial first vote on judge's nomination – live updates | Brett Kavanaugh: Senate to hold crucial first vote on judge's nomination – live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| “Look at the polls over the last three or four days,” Donald Trump told a rally in Minnesota, “and it shows [Democrats’] rage-fueled resistance is starting to backfire at a level that nobody has ever seen before.” | |
| The president was referring to polling that shows some improvement for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections. | |
| Liberals had hoped the controversy surrounding Kavanaugh would increase Democratic enthusiasm, help the party win the House, and perhaps even allow them to sneak a one-seat majority in the Senate. | |
| In fact, it seems to be boosting Republicans as much as Democrats, according to an NPR/PBS/Marist poll. | |
| NPR reports: | |
| In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were “very important.” Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie. | |
| Democrats’ advantage on which party’s candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September … | |
| With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base. | |
| One concrete example seems to be the Senate race in North Dakota, where Republican Kevin Cramer now seems to be about 9 points ahead of incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp. | |
| To Cramer’s evident delight, Heitkamp has said she will vote against Kavanaugh. “[The Kavanaugh hearings] proved to be perhaps the greatest political gift I’ve received in some time,” her opponent has said. | |
| It’s possible, though, that if Kavanaugh is confirmed tomorrow the heat will go out of that battle for GOP voters and that surge may fade. But it is unlikely to fade for Democrats. | |
| The Washington Post suggests that if senator Steve Daines heads to Montana to attend his daughter’s wedding tomorrow (see earlier), Republicans could wait till the early hours of Sunday so he can still cast his vote. | |
| Daines’s vote will not be needed Saturday unless one Republican defects and Democrats stay unified against Kavanaugh. In that case, a Saturday evening session could be held open for hours into Sunday so Daines, who supports Kavanaugh, could return to Washington after the wedding and cast his vote. | |
| If two Republicans vote against Kavanaugh today, and all Democrats also reject him, his nomination is over. | If two Republicans vote against Kavanaugh today, and all Democrats also reject him, his nomination is over. |
| Four senators remain undecided. They are: | Four senators remain undecided. They are: |
| Jeff Flake (Rep, Arizona) | Jeff Flake (Rep, Arizona) |
| The frequent Trump critic dismayed liberals when he voted in favour of Kavanaugh in last week’s committee vote. But he then stunned Washington by insisting the FBI reopen its background check into the nominee. But Flake has said the background check contained “no additional corroborating information” about the claims against Kavanaugh, and it would be a surprise now if he voted against the judge. | The frequent Trump critic dismayed liberals when he voted in favour of Kavanaugh in last week’s committee vote. But he then stunned Washington by insisting the FBI reopen its background check into the nominee. But Flake has said the background check contained “no additional corroborating information” about the claims against Kavanaugh, and it would be a surprise now if he voted against the judge. |
| Susan Collins (Rep, Maine) | Susan Collins (Rep, Maine) |
| One of the most liberal Republican senators, Collins called the FBI’s work “a very thorough investigation”. | One of the most liberal Republican senators, Collins called the FBI’s work “a very thorough investigation”. |
| Lisa Murkowski (Rep, Alaska) | Lisa Murkowski (Rep, Alaska) |
| Another senator on the left of the Republican party, Murkowski said on Thursday she was “still reviewing” which way to vote. | Another senator on the left of the Republican party, Murkowski said on Thursday she was “still reviewing” which way to vote. |
| Joe Manchin (Dem, West Virginia) | Joe Manchin (Dem, West Virginia) |
| The conservative Democrat remains the only senator in his party undecided about Kavanaugh. He is up for re-election in November in a state won by Trump in 2016 with a 42-point margin, and will be worried about losing votes if he rejects the president’s nominee. On the other hand, he has around a 10-point lead in the polls, so he may decide he can weather any backlash. Manchin was confronted by a protester on Thursday, who asked him: “Why are you going to vote yes on this?” “How do you know I’m going to?” the senator replied. Asked directly how he was going to vote, he said: “I can’t tell you now.” | |
| Even if all these senators vote “yes” in today’s cloture vote - a procedural one to end debate on the issue - one or more could conceivably then switch sides for a final vote tomorrow. | Even if all these senators vote “yes” in today’s cloture vote - a procedural one to end debate on the issue - one or more could conceivably then switch sides for a final vote tomorrow. |
| Confirming Kavanaugh will be that bit harder for the Republicans if Senator Steve Daines of Montana goes ahead with his vow to attend his daughter’s wedding in his home state on Saturday, according to the Associated Press. | Confirming Kavanaugh will be that bit harder for the Republicans if Senator Steve Daines of Montana goes ahead with his vow to attend his daughter’s wedding in his home state on Saturday, according to the Associated Press. |
| If Daines walks his daughter down the aisle instead of voting in the expected final vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination tomorrow, only one Republican “no” vote would sink the nominee – provided, that is, all Democrats vote against him too. | If Daines walks his daughter down the aisle instead of voting in the expected final vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination tomorrow, only one Republican “no” vote would sink the nominee – provided, that is, all Democrats vote against him too. |
| The Senate is divided 51-49 Republican to Democrat. In the event of a tie, vice-president Mike Pence has the casting vote. | The Senate is divided 51-49 Republican to Democrat. In the event of a tie, vice-president Mike Pence has the casting vote. |
| Brett Kavanaugh took the unusual step on Thursday of taking the case for his confirmation to the US supreme court to the pages of the Wall Street Journal, admitting his Senate testimony “might have been too emotional” and insisting that he would be impartial if confirmed. | Brett Kavanaugh took the unusual step on Thursday of taking the case for his confirmation to the US supreme court to the pages of the Wall Street Journal, admitting his Senate testimony “might have been too emotional” and insisting that he would be impartial if confirmed. |
| Kavanaugh’s aggressive demeanor and highly partisan statements - at one point he claimed the allegations against him were “revenge on behalf of the Clintons” – seemed designed to win over an audience of one: Donald Trump. | Kavanaugh’s aggressive demeanor and highly partisan statements - at one point he claimed the allegations against him were “revenge on behalf of the Clintons” – seemed designed to win over an audience of one: Donald Trump. |
| In that respect he was successful. The US president, who had been publicly wavering in his support for his nominee, came out strongly for Kavanaugh following his testimony, tweeting that “Judge Kavanaugh showed America exactly why I nominated him. His testimony was powerful, honest, and riveting.” | In that respect he was successful. The US president, who had been publicly wavering in his support for his nominee, came out strongly for Kavanaugh following his testimony, tweeting that “Judge Kavanaugh showed America exactly why I nominated him. His testimony was powerful, honest, and riveting.” |
| But Kavanaugh’s WSJ piece indicates that what went down well in the White House may not have been as welcome to some of the senators whose support he needs to be confirmed – most notably Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and conservative Democrat Joe Manchin. | But Kavanaugh’s WSJ piece indicates that what went down well in the White House may not have been as welcome to some of the senators whose support he needs to be confirmed – most notably Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski and conservative Democrat Joe Manchin. |
| He wrote: | He wrote: |
| I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said. I hope everyone can understand that I was there as a son, husband and dad. I testified with five people foremost in my mind: my mom, my dad, my wife, and most of all my daughters. | I was very emotional last Thursday, more so than I have ever been. I might have been too emotional at times. I know that my tone was sharp, and I said a few things I should not have said. I hope everyone can understand that I was there as a son, husband and dad. I testified with five people foremost in my mind: my mom, my dad, my wife, and most of all my daughters. |
| Going forward, you can count on me to be the same kind of judge and person I have been for my entire 28-year legal career: hardworking, even-keeled, open-minded, independent and dedicated to the Constitution and the public good. | Going forward, you can count on me to be the same kind of judge and person I have been for my entire 28-year legal career: hardworking, even-keeled, open-minded, independent and dedicated to the Constitution and the public good. |
| His comments came too late for one peer, former supreme court justice John Paul Stevens, who said on Thursday that Kavanaugh’s performance before the Senate judiciary committee had changed his mind about his fitness to serve on the highest court in the land. | His comments came too late for one peer, former supreme court justice John Paul Stevens, who said on Thursday that Kavanaugh’s performance before the Senate judiciary committee had changed his mind about his fitness to serve on the highest court in the land. |
| “They suggest that he has demonstrated a potential bias involving enough potential litigants before the court that he would not be able to perform his full responsibilities,” Stevens said, comparing Kavanaugh unfavourably with Clarence Thomas, who faced sexual harassment accusations during his successful confirmation process in 1991. | “They suggest that he has demonstrated a potential bias involving enough potential litigants before the court that he would not be able to perform his full responsibilities,” Stevens said, comparing Kavanaugh unfavourably with Clarence Thomas, who faced sexual harassment accusations during his successful confirmation process in 1991. |
| “There’s nothing that Clarence did in the hearings that disqualified him from sitting in cases after he came on the court,” Stevens said. | “There’s nothing that Clarence did in the hearings that disqualified him from sitting in cases after he came on the court,” Stevens said. |
| Good morning and welcome | Good morning and welcome |
| The US Senate is due to take a crucial vote on Friday on whether to advance Brett Kavanaugh’s nominate to the supreme court, with key senators still seemingly undecided on whether to vote to confirm him. | The US Senate is due to take a crucial vote on Friday on whether to advance Brett Kavanaugh’s nominate to the supreme court, with key senators still seemingly undecided on whether to vote to confirm him. |
| If 51 senators vote in favor of passing today’s “cloture vote”, the debate on his nomination must come to an end and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell can move to a final ballot for Kavanaugh’s nomination. | If 51 senators vote in favor of passing today’s “cloture vote”, the debate on his nomination must come to an end and Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell can move to a final ballot for Kavanaugh’s nomination. |
| That final vote could then come as early as Saturday. | That final vote could then come as early as Saturday. |
| The cloture vote comes one day after senators reviewed a supplemental FBI investigation into allegations that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted women three decades ago. Kavanaugh denies the allegations. | The cloture vote comes one day after senators reviewed a supplemental FBI investigation into allegations that Kavanaugh sexually assaulted women three decades ago. Kavanaugh denies the allegations. |
| The limited FBI investigation was triggered after Christine Blasey Ford testified at a Senate hearing last week that Kavanaugh attempted to rape her when they were teenagers in high school. | The limited FBI investigation was triggered after Christine Blasey Ford testified at a Senate hearing last week that Kavanaugh attempted to rape her when they were teenagers in high school. |
| The cloture vote will give an insight into how ready swing senators – such as Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine and Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia – are to vote on Kavanaugh. | The cloture vote will give an insight into how ready swing senators – such as Susan Collins, a Republican from Maine and Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia – are to vote on Kavanaugh. |
| Heading into the vote, two key Republicans, including Collins, expressed satisfaction with the findings in the report, indicating Kavanaugh could be confirmed by the senate. | Heading into the vote, two key Republicans, including Collins, expressed satisfaction with the findings in the report, indicating Kavanaugh could be confirmed by the senate. |
| We’ll have live updates on the vote – expected some time after 10.30am ET (3.30pm UK time) – as well as from the halls of Congress, which have been filled with protestors since Ford’s allegations were made public. | We’ll have live updates on the vote – expected some time after 10.30am ET (3.30pm UK time) – as well as from the halls of Congress, which have been filled with protestors since Ford’s allegations were made public. |
| We’ll have live coverage here throughout the day. | We’ll have live coverage here throughout the day. |
| Read more: | Read more: |