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Washington diary: Winning strategies Washington diary: Winning strategies
(about 2 hours later)
By Matt Frei BBC News, WashingtonBy Matt Frei BBC News, Washington
John McCain claims he likes nothing more than being the underdog.John McCain claims he likes nothing more than being the underdog.
Mr McCain is trailing Mr Obama in a number of battleground statesMr McCain is trailing Mr Obama in a number of battleground states
In recent days his wish has come true.In recent days his wish has come true.
The latest Reuters/C Span/Zogby poll - does anyone else want to join the line-up? - has Barack Obama inching above the 50% watershed by 1.3% per day.The latest Reuters/C Span/Zogby poll - does anyone else want to join the line-up? - has Barack Obama inching above the 50% watershed by 1.3% per day.
A Time Magazine poll echoes this result.A Time Magazine poll echoes this result.
The Zogby poll has the senator from Illinois leading his colleague from Arizona by 27 points among independents, 27 among those who have already voted and 12 among Catholics, which is better than Bill Clinton's pre-Monica 10%in 1996.The Zogby poll has the senator from Illinois leading his colleague from Arizona by 27 points among independents, 27 among those who have already voted and 12 among Catholics, which is better than Bill Clinton's pre-Monica 10%in 1996.
He leads by four points amongst the over 65s.He leads by four points amongst the over 65s.
I thought granny power was supposed to be McCain's natural turf?I thought granny power was supposed to be McCain's natural turf?
Hidden issueHidden issue
Most astonishingly, Barack Hussein Obama is tied with his rival among Nascar fans. Remember those Nascar Dads?Most astonishingly, Barack Hussein Obama is tied with his rival among Nascar fans. Remember those Nascar Dads?
They were the redneck bedrock of George W Bush's support.They were the redneck bedrock of George W Bush's support.
The national polls do not look good for McCain.The national polls do not look good for McCain.
The polls in the swing states look even worse.The polls in the swing states look even worse.
Barack Obama has not only received Gen Colin Powell's endorsement - he has also adopted the general's doctrine of 'overwhelming force'Barack Obama has not only received Gen Colin Powell's endorsement - he has also adopted the general's doctrine of 'overwhelming force'
In Virginia, yes Virginia, Obama is ahead by double digits.In Virginia, yes Virginia, Obama is ahead by double digits.
In North Carolina he has widened his lead from 51% compared to McCain's 47%.In North Carolina he has widened his lead from 51% compared to McCain's 47%.
He has not yet sealed the deal.He has not yet sealed the deal.
The Obama camp itself is worried that the polls could lie, especially about the hidden issue of race.The Obama camp itself is worried that the polls could lie, especially about the hidden issue of race.
But Tad Devine, the Democrat analyst who helped to run John Kerry's 2004 campaign (but who is never prone to irrational exuberance) told me this the other day: "If on election night Obama gets Virginia, the race may well be over. If he then also gets North Carolina it could be a landslide."But Tad Devine, the Democrat analyst who helped to run John Kerry's 2004 campaign (but who is never prone to irrational exuberance) told me this the other day: "If on election night Obama gets Virginia, the race may well be over. If he then also gets North Carolina it could be a landslide."
And we had not even discussed Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire.And we had not even discussed Ohio, Florida and New Hampshire.
So much for the polls.So much for the polls.
Then there is the ground war, already in full swing.Then there is the ground war, already in full swing.
Missouri is the quintessential bellwether state - it has voted for the winning candidate every time - bar 1952 - in the last century.Missouri is the quintessential bellwether state - it has voted for the winning candidate every time - bar 1952 - in the last century.
Mr Obama is still tied with Mr McCain in Missouri, polls indicate, but his campaign has set up 40 local offices compared to his rival's nine.Mr Obama is still tied with Mr McCain in Missouri, polls indicate, but his campaign has set up 40 local offices compared to his rival's nine.
He has hundreds of volunteers who will be able to drag willing voters to the polls.He has hundreds of volunteers who will be able to drag willing voters to the polls.
And he has the infrastructure to make early voting work for him.And he has the infrastructure to make early voting work for him.
In this election, one-third of voters are expected to use the opportunity to vote before 4 November.In this election, one-third of voters are expected to use the opportunity to vote before 4 November.
SubliminalSubliminal
The 47-year-old has not only received Gen Colin Powell's endorsement - he has also adopted the general's doctrine of "overwhelming force".The 47-year-old has not only received Gen Colin Powell's endorsement - he has also adopted the general's doctrine of "overwhelming force".
Using his lorry-loads of cash, he has virtually carpet-bombed the airwaves with TV ads.Using his lorry-loads of cash, he has virtually carpet-bombed the airwaves with TV ads.
I drove to work this morning listening to the new brand of advertising, which is all about saving, scrimping and making do.I drove to work this morning listening to the new brand of advertising, which is all about saving, scrimping and making do.
In between, there were two ads from campaign Obama about healthcare.In between, there were two ads from campaign Obama about healthcare.
This stuff has become almost subliminal.This stuff has become almost subliminal.
Mr Obama could be looking at a landslide victoryMr Obama could be looking at a landslide victory
Enlisting all the usual caveats, it is now time to ask whether we could see an Obama landslide in the electoral college.Enlisting all the usual caveats, it is now time to ask whether we could see an Obama landslide in the electoral college.
Even Republican pollsters I speak to furtively admit that they assume Mr Obama will hold on to every state won by Kerry in 2004 and the two - Iowa and New Mexico - also won by Gore in 2000.Even Republican pollsters I speak to furtively admit that they assume Mr Obama will hold on to every state won by Kerry in 2004 and the two - Iowa and New Mexico - also won by Gore in 2000.
That gives him 264 votes in the Electoral College.That gives him 264 votes in the Electoral College.
He only needs another six to win.He only needs another six to win.
Virginia would do the trick.Virginia would do the trick.
In 1960, John F Kennedy only beat Richard Nixon by 118,000 in the popular vote but because of Texas, with its lion's share of electoral college votes, he won the electoral college by 303 votes to 219.In 1960, John F Kennedy only beat Richard Nixon by 118,000 in the popular vote but because of Texas, with its lion's share of electoral college votes, he won the electoral college by 303 votes to 219.
Nasty surprisesNasty surprises
Democrats wisely see victory as the outcome that dare not speaks its name.Democrats wisely see victory as the outcome that dare not speaks its name.
They have suffered nasty surprises in the past.They have suffered nasty surprises in the past.
Mr McCain's strategy is to hope that the polls are lying and to put most of his eggs into a basket called Pennsylvania If the polls are proved wrong this time, their collective sigh will become the groan of collective harikiri.Mr McCain's strategy is to hope that the polls are lying and to put most of his eggs into a basket called Pennsylvania If the polls are proved wrong this time, their collective sigh will become the groan of collective harikiri.
But even some Republicans talk about Mr Obama achieving a landslide as big as Ronald Reagan's in 1980 and 1984.But even some Republicans talk about Mr Obama achieving a landslide as big as Ronald Reagan's in 1980 and 1984.
Combined with expected victories in the Senate and the House, an Obama win would transform the political colour of Washington.Combined with expected victories in the Senate and the House, an Obama win would transform the political colour of Washington.
Despite the mood swings against the GOP, middle America is uncomfortable with one-party rule.Despite the mood swings against the GOP, middle America is uncomfortable with one-party rule.
That may be a thought too far and too intellectual at a time when voting has become visceral.That may be a thought too far and too intellectual at a time when voting has become visceral.
Mr McCain's strategy is to hope that the polls are lying and to put most of his eggs into a basket called Pennsylvania.Mr McCain's strategy is to hope that the polls are lying and to put most of his eggs into a basket called Pennsylvania.
Even if Mr Obama loses that state - and its 21 electoral college votes - where he is well ahead in the polls, he can make up for the loss elsewhere.Even if Mr Obama loses that state - and its 21 electoral college votes - where he is well ahead in the polls, he can make up for the loss elsewhere.
Mr McCain's strategy smacks of desperation.Mr McCain's strategy smacks of desperation.
But, ironically, the candidate looks a lot happier on the hustings these days.But, ironically, the candidate looks a lot happier on the hustings these days.
He has suspended the worst of the bile.He has suspended the worst of the bile.
He is smiling from the gut and joking off the cuff.He is smiling from the gut and joking off the cuff.
Perhaps he has been liberated by the prospect of defeat.Perhaps he has been liberated by the prospect of defeat.
Perhaps his minders are finally letting John be John.Perhaps his minders are finally letting John be John.
Will it be enough to save him on 4 November?Will it be enough to save him on 4 November?
Unlikely, but then 12 days is an eternity in politics these days.Unlikely, but then 12 days is an eternity in politics these days.
Matt Frei is the presenter of BBC World News Americawhich airs every weekday at 0030 BST on BBC News and at 0000 BST (1900 ET / 1600 PT) on BBC World News and BBC America (for viewers outside the UK only).Matt Frei is the presenter of BBC World News Americawhich airs every weekday at 0030 BST on BBC News and at 0000 BST (1900 ET / 1600 PT) on BBC World News and BBC America (for viewers outside the UK only).
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