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India 'overestimates' HIV/Aids India 'overestimates' HIV/Aids
(30 minutes later)
Methods used to estimate the number of people affected by HIV/Aids in India are flawed and the actual number of cases may be lower, a new study says.Methods used to estimate the number of people affected by HIV/Aids in India are flawed and the actual number of cases may be lower, a new study says.
The UN estimates that India has the highest number of HIV infections with 5.7 million people with the virus.The UN estimates that India has the highest number of HIV infections with 5.7 million people with the virus.
The study in British journal BMC Medicine says the number of people with the infection may be only 40% of the official estimate.The study in British journal BMC Medicine says the number of people with the infection may be only 40% of the official estimate.
The findings have met a mixed reaction from health officials. The UN said it was too early to say if the data applied to India as a whole.
Recently, former US President Bill Clinton called India the epicentre of the global HIV/Aids epidemic.Recently, former US President Bill Clinton called India the epicentre of the global HIV/Aids epidemic.
Blood samplesBlood samples
The study is based on research in one district in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, which is worst-hit by the infection.The study is based on research in one district in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, which is worst-hit by the infection.
Investigators collected blood samples from 12,617 people aged between 15 and 49 years in Guntur district - one of the worst affected areas in the state - to come to their conclusions.Investigators collected blood samples from 12,617 people aged between 15 and 49 years in Guntur district - one of the worst affected areas in the state - to come to their conclusions.
The method estimated that there were 45,900 people living with HIV in Guntur, compared to the estimate of 112,600 reached by the official method.The method estimated that there were 45,900 people living with HIV in Guntur, compared to the estimate of 112,600 reached by the official method.
Extrapolating its findings, the study believes that there may be between 3.2 million and 3.5 million adults with the infection in India.Extrapolating its findings, the study believes that there may be between 3.2 million and 3.5 million adults with the infection in India.
"India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method," the study said."India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method," the study said.
However, study investigator Dr Lalit Dandona said that even though his team's numbers were smaller, they were "by no means suggesting that the problem is already taken care of".However, study investigator Dr Lalit Dandona said that even though his team's numbers were smaller, they were "by no means suggesting that the problem is already taken care of".
'Useful''Useful'
The official method uses data collected from ante-natal and STD clinics and public hospitals.The official method uses data collected from ante-natal and STD clinics and public hospitals.
Dr Dandona said he believed that there was no intentional effort to inflate the numbers, but the official method gave a flawed picture.Dr Dandona said he believed that there was no intentional effort to inflate the numbers, but the official method gave a flawed picture.
This is because the number of people with the infection reporting to the clinics and public hospitals were not representative of their true numbers in the population, he said.This is because the number of people with the infection reporting to the clinics and public hospitals were not representative of their true numbers in the population, he said.
UNAids chief in India Dr Denis Broun told the Associated Press that this was a "good study and definitely useful".UNAids chief in India Dr Denis Broun told the Associated Press that this was a "good study and definitely useful".
But he said there were problems with the methods used for arriving at its conclusion.But he said there were problems with the methods used for arriving at its conclusion.
"Even if it were right in Guntur, it would not mean it is right all over India," he said."Even if it were right in Guntur, it would not mean it is right all over India," he said.
A recent report in India warned that its economy would suffer if the country fails to check the spread of HIV and Aids - economic growth currently at 8% could fall by nearly 1% if the disease is not contained, it says.A recent report in India warned that its economy would suffer if the country fails to check the spread of HIV and Aids - economic growth currently at 8% could fall by nearly 1% if the disease is not contained, it says.