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| India 'overestimates' HIV/Aids | |
| (20 minutes later) | |
| Methods used to estimate the number of people affected by HIV/Aids in India are flawed and the actual number of cases may be lower, a new study says. | Methods used to estimate the number of people affected by HIV/Aids in India are flawed and the actual number of cases may be lower, a new study says. |
| The UN estimates that India has the highest number of HIV infections with 5.7 million people with the virus. | The UN estimates that India has the highest number of HIV infections with 5.7 million people with the virus. |
| The study in British journal BMC Medicine says the number of people with the infection may be only 40% of the official estimate. | The study in British journal BMC Medicine says the number of people with the infection may be only 40% of the official estimate. |
| The findings have met a mixed reaction from health officials. | The findings have met a mixed reaction from health officials. |
| Recently, former US President Bill Clinton called India the epicentre of the global HIV/Aids epidemic. | Recently, former US President Bill Clinton called India the epicentre of the global HIV/Aids epidemic. |
| Blood samples | Blood samples |
| The study is based on research in one district in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, which is worst-hit by the infection. | The study is based on research in one district in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, which is worst-hit by the infection. |
| Investigators collected blood samples from 12,617 people aged between 15 and 49 years in Guntur district - one of the worst affected areas in the state - to come to their conclusions. | Investigators collected blood samples from 12,617 people aged between 15 and 49 years in Guntur district - one of the worst affected areas in the state - to come to their conclusions. |
| The method estimated that there were 45,900 people living with HIV in Guntur, compared to the estimate of 112,600 reached by the official method. | The method estimated that there were 45,900 people living with HIV in Guntur, compared to the estimate of 112,600 reached by the official method. |
| The study believes that there may be between 3.2 million to 3.5 million adults with the infection in India. | The study believes that there may be between 3.2 million to 3.5 million adults with the infection in India. |
| "India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method," the study said. | "India may be overestimating its HIV burden with the currently used official estimation method," the study said. |
| However, study investigator Dr Lalit Dandona said that even though their numbers were smaller, they were "by no means suggesting that the problem is already taken care of". | However, study investigator Dr Lalit Dandona said that even though their numbers were smaller, they were "by no means suggesting that the problem is already taken care of". |
| 'Useful' | 'Useful' |
| The official method uses data collected from ante-natal and STD clinics and public hospitals, the study says. | The official method uses data collected from ante-natal and STD clinics and public hospitals, the study says. |
| Dr Dandona said he believed that there was no intentional effort to inflate the numbers, but the official method gave a flawed picture. | Dr Dandona said he believed that there was no intentional effort to inflate the numbers, but the official method gave a flawed picture. |
| This is because the number of people with the infection reporting to the clinics and public hospitals were not representative of their true numbers in the population, he said. | This is because the number of people with the infection reporting to the clinics and public hospitals were not representative of their true numbers in the population, he said. |
| UNAids chief in India Dr Denis Broun told the Associated Press that this was a "good study and definitely useful". | |
| But he said there were problems with the methods used for arriving at its conclusion. | But he said there were problems with the methods used for arriving at its conclusion. |
| "Even if it were right in Guntur, it would not mean it is right all over India," he said. | "Even if it were right in Guntur, it would not mean it is right all over India," he said. |
| A recent report in India warned that its economy would suffer if the country fails to check the spread of HIV and Aids - economic growth currently at 8% could fall by nearly 1% if the disease is not contained, it says. | A recent report in India warned that its economy would suffer if the country fails to check the spread of HIV and Aids - economic growth currently at 8% could fall by nearly 1% if the disease is not contained, it says. |