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| Can divided Belgium hold together? | Can divided Belgium hold together? |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| Belgium has launched a drive to reshape its institutions, following months of government paralysis. At the heart of the crisis is a tension between the Dutch-speaking Flemish and Francophones. In the final of a series of articles, Henri Astier asks if Belgium can remain united, and considers the lessons for other multi-ethnic entities. | Belgium has launched a drive to reshape its institutions, following months of government paralysis. At the heart of the crisis is a tension between the Dutch-speaking Flemish and Francophones. In the final of a series of articles, Henri Astier asks if Belgium can remain united, and considers the lessons for other multi-ethnic entities. |
| Flemish separatists are burning to tear up the Belgian constitution | Flemish separatists are burning to tear up the Belgian constitution |
| Earlier this month the Flemish sports minister suggested restructuring Belgium's football federation, creating Francophone and Dutch-speaking wings. | Earlier this month the Flemish sports minister suggested restructuring Belgium's football federation, creating Francophone and Dutch-speaking wings. |
| The plan drew loud boos from French-speakers. | The plan drew loud boos from French-speakers. |
| The vice-president of national champions Standard Liege called it as a "dangerous first step towards a split" - and threatened to make an even bigger step by joining the French league if it went ahead. | The vice-president of national champions Standard Liege called it as a "dangerous first step towards a split" - and threatened to make an even bigger step by joining the French league if it went ahead. |
| The row neatly encapsulates what some fear could be the unravelling of Belgium itself. | The row neatly encapsulates what some fear could be the unravelling of Belgium itself. |
| The events might unfold along the following lines: the autonomy-minded Flemish, who are richer and more numerous than French-speakers, grow impatient with protracted devolution talks; in next year's regional lection Flemish nationalists do well; alarmed Francophones seek solace in a union with France. | The events might unfold along the following lines: the autonomy-minded Flemish, who are richer and more numerous than French-speakers, grow impatient with protracted devolution talks; in next year's regional lection Flemish nationalists do well; alarmed Francophones seek solace in a union with France. |
| A recent poll by Le Soir newspaper suggested that 49% of people in Wallonia, the French-speaking half of Belgium, want to become French if their country breaks up. | A recent poll by Le Soir newspaper suggested that 49% of people in Wallonia, the French-speaking half of Belgium, want to become French if their country breaks up. |
| "There is a vicious circle where Francophones feel that radicalisation is gathering pace in Flanders," says Olivier Mouton, Le Soir's political editor. | "There is a vicious circle where Francophones feel that radicalisation is gathering pace in Flanders," says Olivier Mouton, Le Soir's political editor. |
| "They brace themselves for Flemish independence and become radicalised themselves," | "They brace themselves for Flemish independence and become radicalised themselves," |
| Flemish Copernicus | Flemish Copernicus |
| The paradox is that separation would happen without either side actively seeking it. | The paradox is that separation would happen without either side actively seeking it. |
| Only about 10% of Flemish voters want independence. Support for unity is overwhelming in Wallonia. | Only about 10% of Flemish voters want independence. Support for unity is overwhelming in Wallonia. |
| For me the most important level will be the regional level Kris PeetersMinister-President of Flanders | For me the most important level will be the regional level Kris PeetersMinister-President of Flanders |
| Could Belgians really be sleepwalking towards separation? Flemish leaders say they only want to reform the Belgian state, not dismantle it. | Could Belgians really be sleepwalking towards separation? Flemish leaders say they only want to reform the Belgian state, not dismantle it. |
| "I am not in favour of the independence," Kris Peeters, Flanders' Minister-President, told the BBC News website. "Solidarity" between Flanders and other regions will remain, he insists. | "I am not in favour of the independence," Kris Peeters, Flanders' Minister-President, told the BBC News website. "Solidarity" between Flanders and other regions will remain, he insists. |
| However his stated goal is a "Copernican revolution" where federal powers are greatly reduced and the main decisions taken by regions. | However his stated goal is a "Copernican revolution" where federal powers are greatly reduced and the main decisions taken by regions. |
| "For me the most important level will be the regional level," he says. | "For me the most important level will be the regional level," he says. |
| Mr Peeters' career reflects this belief in the regions' supremacy. He spurned a seat in the Belgian parliament. | Mr Peeters' career reflects this belief in the regions' supremacy. He spurned a seat in the Belgian parliament. |
| Asked what he would do if offered a key federal ministry he says unhesitatingly: "I would turn it down too." | Asked what he would do if offered a key federal ministry he says unhesitatingly: "I would turn it down too." |
| And his description of the current "dialogue between the communities" points to his ideal of quasi-sovereign entities: "We have two delegations, like two separate states discussing a treaty." | And his description of the current "dialogue between the communities" points to his ideal of quasi-sovereign entities: "We have two delegations, like two separate states discussing a treaty." |
| Anonymous celebrities | Anonymous celebrities |
| Some commentators believe that the dynamic of Belgian politics lead the French and Dutch speakers away from each other. | Some commentators believe that the dynamic of Belgian politics lead the French and Dutch speakers away from each other. |
| The changes you bring to the political build-up of a country have a long-term snowballing effect Gie GorisEditor, Mo Magazine | The changes you bring to the political build-up of a country have a long-term snowballing effect Gie GorisEditor, Mo Magazine |
| Following devolution reforms over the past 45 years, all parties are now either Dutch-speaking or French-speaking. | Following devolution reforms over the past 45 years, all parties are now either Dutch-speaking or French-speaking. |
| Gie Goris, editor of Mo magazine, notes that countries which accept ethnically based politics, like Sri Lanka, are inherently unstable. | Gie Goris, editor of Mo magazine, notes that countries which accept ethnically based politics, like Sri Lanka, are inherently unstable. |
| Belgians are not about to kill each, Mr Goris admits, but they should be wary of ever more devolution: "The changes you bring to the political build-up of a country have a long-term snowballing effect." | Belgians are not about to kill each, Mr Goris admits, but they should be wary of ever more devolution: "The changes you bring to the political build-up of a country have a long-term snowballing effect." |
| Belgium has no common public sphere to speak of. The communities don't watch the same TV channels. | Belgium has no common public sphere to speak of. The communities don't watch the same TV channels. |
| BELGIUM BY NUMBERS 10.5 million peopleFlanders: 6 million peopleWallonia: 3,5 million peopleBrussels: 1 million people Belgium's devolution conundrum | BELGIUM BY NUMBERS 10.5 million peopleFlanders: 6 million peopleWallonia: 3,5 million peopleBrussels: 1 million people Belgium's devolution conundrum |
| Celebrities from one side can walk totally anonymously across the "linguistic border" - as it is tellingly called. "You have a whole different cultural universe in the north and the south of the country," says Yves Desmet, political commentator for the Dutch-language De Morgen newspaper. | Celebrities from one side can walk totally anonymously across the "linguistic border" - as it is tellingly called. "You have a whole different cultural universe in the north and the south of the country," says Yves Desmet, political commentator for the Dutch-language De Morgen newspaper. |
| Differences are striking in both big and small ways. | Differences are striking in both big and small ways. |
| Although the railways are federal, train tickets are bilingual - in Flanders they are in Dutch only, while tickets for the same journeys printed in Brussels or Wallonia are in French. | Although the railways are federal, train tickets are bilingual - in Flanders they are in Dutch only, while tickets for the same journeys printed in Brussels or Wallonia are in French. |
| Health habits also vary widely. | Health habits also vary widely. |
| French-speakers, like most southern Europeans, are heavy users of antibiotics and expensive diagnostic procedures such as MRI scans, while the Flemish tend to frown on these, as do most northern Europeans. | French-speakers, like most southern Europeans, are heavy users of antibiotics and expensive diagnostic procedures such as MRI scans, while the Flemish tend to frown on these, as do most northern Europeans. |
| Digital divide | Digital divide |
| To be sure, some things still unite Belgians. They drink the same beers. They all cheered the mixed team that won silver for Belgium in the women's 4x100m Olympic relay in Beijing. | To be sure, some things still unite Belgians. They drink the same beers. They all cheered the mixed team that won silver for Belgium in the women's 4x100m Olympic relay in Beijing. |
| Belgium's successful relay team enjoyed cross-community support | Belgium's successful relay team enjoyed cross-community support |
| The king commands respect on both sides - although his Flemish subjects are more lukewarm in their affection. | The king commands respect on both sides - although his Flemish subjects are more lukewarm in their affection. |
| In economic matters, the picture is mixed. Flanders and Wallonia are each other's main trading partner, but in the booming technology sector contact is limited. | In economic matters, the picture is mixed. Flanders and Wallonia are each other's main trading partner, but in the booming technology sector contact is limited. |
| Nonillion, an up-and-coming IT firm based in Ghent, does not have a single customer in Wallonia. | Nonillion, an up-and-coming IT firm based in Ghent, does not have a single customer in Wallonia. |
| Chief executive Rudi Van den Bossche says French is not a requirement for his staff. "Most of our customers ask for bilingual - meaning Dutch and English," he says. | Chief executive Rudi Van den Bossche says French is not a requirement for his staff. "Most of our customers ask for bilingual - meaning Dutch and English," he says. |
| In Brussels, on the other hand, bilingualism tends increasingly to be the norm. Still, the overall picture is one of division. | In Brussels, on the other hand, bilingualism tends increasingly to be the norm. Still, the overall picture is one of division. |
| "If you were a Martian and read the Flemish newspapers and the Walloon newspapers you would think they're describing two different countries," says De Morgen's Yves Desmet. | "If you were a Martian and read the Flemish newspapers and the Walloon newspapers you would think they're describing two different countries," says De Morgen's Yves Desmet. |
| You say you want a revolution | You say you want a revolution |
| But does this continued estrangement mean that Belgium is doomed? Many commentators do not think so. | But does this continued estrangement mean that Belgium is doomed? Many commentators do not think so. |
| With us, rupture is never possible because compromise must always be reached Olivier ChastelDeputy foreign minister | With us, rupture is never possible because compromise must always be reached Olivier ChastelDeputy foreign minister |
| First there is the question of Brussels. The capital is a region in its own right, distinct from both Flanders and Wallonia. It is also richer than both, as well as the seat of the EU and Nato. | First there is the question of Brussels. The capital is a region in its own right, distinct from both Flanders and Wallonia. It is also richer than both, as well as the seat of the EU and Nato. |
| As a result, neither side can accept a takeover of the other on Brussels. And without it, each is a marginalised hinterland. The status quo is thus the best option for both. | As a result, neither side can accept a takeover of the other on Brussels. And without it, each is a marginalised hinterland. The status quo is thus the best option for both. |
| Moreover, Belgium's proportional representation voting system is a big hurdle for those seeking radical change. | Moreover, Belgium's proportional representation voting system is a big hurdle for those seeking radical change. |
| In a first-past-the-post systems, a winner clearly takes charge. But Belgian leaders have to cobble coalitions with groups from both sides of the divide. | In a first-past-the-post systems, a winner clearly takes charge. But Belgian leaders have to cobble coalitions with groups from both sides of the divide. |
| "When [President Nicolas] Sarkozy is elected in France, he can implement a policy of 'rupture'. But with us, rupture is never possible because compromise must always be reached with other parties," says Belgian deputy Foreign Minister Olivier Chastel. | "When [President Nicolas] Sarkozy is elected in France, he can implement a policy of 'rupture'. But with us, rupture is never possible because compromise must always be reached with other parties," says Belgian deputy Foreign Minister Olivier Chastel. |
| Revolutions, Copernican or otherwise, are mightily difficult to bring about in Belgium. | Revolutions, Copernican or otherwise, are mightily difficult to bring about in Belgium. |
| Muddling through | Muddling through |
| According to Dave Sinardet, a political scientist at Antwerp University, the fact that Belgium's communities lead largely separate lives, and have no great affection for each other, need not spell the end of the country. | |
| Flemish and Walloons give their views on tensions in BelgiumIn pictures | Flemish and Walloons give their views on tensions in BelgiumIn pictures |
| "These things are also true of the European Union and are not a problem for its continued existence," he says. | "These things are also true of the European Union and are not a problem for its continued existence," he says. |
| This raises an interesting point about parallels between Belgium and the EU. | This raises an interesting point about parallels between Belgium and the EU. |
| The country was long regarded as a model for nations living in harmony under common institutions. | The country was long regarded as a model for nations living in harmony under common institutions. |
| Then, over the past year, the Belgian stalemate was seen as a reflection of the EU's divisions and the travails of its reform treaty. | Then, over the past year, the Belgian stalemate was seen as a reflection of the EU's divisions and the travails of its reform treaty. |
| The real parallel, however, may be neither rosy nor gloomy, but bitter-sweet. | The real parallel, however, may be neither rosy nor gloomy, but bitter-sweet. |
| In both Belgium and the EU, shared institutions seem able to muddle through despite indifference from their constituent nations - rather like old couples who don't talk but stay together because separation is more trouble than it is worth. | In both Belgium and the EU, shared institutions seem able to muddle through despite indifference from their constituent nations - rather like old couples who don't talk but stay together because separation is more trouble than it is worth. |
| Federalists both in Belgium and Europe might see this as too negative an argument for union - but it is a comfort of sorts. | Federalists both in Belgium and Europe might see this as too negative an argument for union - but it is a comfort of sorts. |