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| Markets cheered by Google results, but eurozone growth dips - business live | Markets cheered by Google results, but eurozone growth dips - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Newsflash: Britain’s Serious Fraud Office has launched a new attempt to prosecute Barclays bank over its emergency fundraising from Qatar during the 2008 financial crisis. | Newsflash: Britain’s Serious Fraud Office has launched a new attempt to prosecute Barclays bank over its emergency fundraising from Qatar during the 2008 financial crisis. |
| The SFO has applied to the High Court to get charges against Barclays PLC and Barclays Bank (which holds its banking licence to operate in different countries) reinstated. | The SFO has applied to the High Court to get charges against Barclays PLC and Barclays Bank (which holds its banking licence to operate in different countries) reinstated. |
| Barclays says it will defend the application brought by the SFO. | Barclays says it will defend the application brought by the SFO. |
| Two months ago, the Crown Court dismissed charges that Barclays had conspired to commit fraud by false representations, and provided “unlawful financial assistance” to Qatar over the fund-raising. | |
| Here’s some reaction to this month’s eurozone slowdown, from Oxford Economics’ Angel Talavera: | Here’s some reaction to this month’s eurozone slowdown, from Oxford Economics’ Angel Talavera: |
| PMIs continue to show a European economy under pressure and which has shifted to a lower gear. So far we're quite comfortable with our 0.4% q/q GDP forecasts for this year. | PMIs continue to show a European economy under pressure and which has shifted to a lower gear. So far we're quite comfortable with our 0.4% q/q GDP forecasts for this year. |
| ...and from Piet Christiansen of Danske Bank: | ...and from Piet Christiansen of Danske Bank: |
| 🇪🇺Euro area #PMI - weak first indication of Q3. Eq 0.4% qoq -Except in DE, the outlook is hampered by worries on trade war, which “intensified markedly in July”.- V important for #ECB and with increased concern, also as diverging picture between DE and other EA. pic.twitter.com/ULLUPTdcqC | 🇪🇺Euro area #PMI - weak first indication of Q3. Eq 0.4% qoq -Except in DE, the outlook is hampered by worries on trade war, which “intensified markedly in July”.- V important for #ECB and with increased concern, also as diverging picture between DE and other EA. pic.twitter.com/ULLUPTdcqC |
| Trader Marc-André Fongern points out how Germany is outperforming the rest of the eurozone this month: | Trader Marc-André Fongern points out how Germany is outperforming the rest of the eurozone this month: |
| *GERMANY JULY MANUFACTURING PMI 57.3; FORECAST 55.5. $EURUSD pic.twitter.com/GkujZKOJ8B | *GERMANY JULY MANUFACTURING PMI 57.3; FORECAST 55.5. $EURUSD pic.twitter.com/GkujZKOJ8B |
| Growth across Europe’s private sector is slowing this month, according to a new survey of purchasing managers across the region. | Growth across Europe’s private sector is slowing this month, according to a new survey of purchasing managers across the region. |
| Data firm Markit’s ‘composite output’ index has fallen to 54.3, from 54.9 in June, due to a slowdown in growth at service sector companies. | Data firm Markit’s ‘composite output’ index has fallen to 54.3, from 54.9 in June, due to a slowdown in growth at service sector companies. |
| Its manufacturing PMI index held steady at 54.2, but factory bosses reported the slowest growth in export orders in almost two years. | Its manufacturing PMI index held steady at 54.2, but factory bosses reported the slowest growth in export orders in almost two years. |
| Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, says Europe’s economy has entered July on a “soft footing” - amid worries about trade disputes. | Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, says Europe’s economy has entered July on a “soft footing” - amid worries about trade disputes. |
| “Given the waning growth of new business and further slide in business optimism, the outlook has also deteriorated, notably in manufacturing, where the surveys saw worries about trade wars intensify markedly in July. | “Given the waning growth of new business and further slide in business optimism, the outlook has also deteriorated, notably in manufacturing, where the surveys saw worries about trade wars intensify markedly in July. |
| “While there are signs that improving domestic demand in many countries is helping drive robust service sector expansion and support manufacturing, a worsening picture for export growth is clearly having an increasingly detrimental effect on manufacturing. | “While there are signs that improving domestic demand in many countries is helping drive robust service sector expansion and support manufacturing, a worsening picture for export growth is clearly having an increasingly detrimental effect on manufacturing. |
| Eurozone #PMI manufacturing output grew at a rate unchanged on June’s 19-month low, subdued by weakening export trend. July saw smallest monthly rise in export orders since August 2016 https://t.co/0Wv2bBBJIZ pic.twitter.com/P8JAAGmPbX | Eurozone #PMI manufacturing output grew at a rate unchanged on June’s 19-month low, subdued by weakening export trend. July saw smallest monthly rise in export orders since August 2016 https://t.co/0Wv2bBBJIZ pic.twitter.com/P8JAAGmPbX |
| Much of the growth came from Europe’s largest two members. Markit adds. Growth in the periphery hit its lowest level since autumn 2016, though. | Much of the growth came from Europe’s largest two members. Markit adds. Growth in the periphery hit its lowest level since autumn 2016, though. |
| By country, faster growth in Germany contrasted with a slight slowing in France. Elsewhere, growth was the weakest for 21 months, slipping lower in both manufacturing and services. | By country, faster growth in Germany contrasted with a slight slowing in France. Elsewhere, growth was the weakest for 21 months, slipping lower in both manufacturing and services. |
| The rate of growth of Germany’s private sector economy rebounded from a 20-month low in May to a five-month high, driven by a stronger increase in manufacturing output. But France saw the second- weakest expansion in 18 months, stymied in particular by near-stagnant manufacturing. | The rate of growth of Germany’s private sector economy rebounded from a 20-month low in May to a five-month high, driven by a stronger increase in manufacturing output. But France saw the second- weakest expansion in 18 months, stymied in particular by near-stagnant manufacturing. |
| European stock markets have all opened higher, as Alphabet gives the technology sector a boost. | European stock markets have all opened higher, as Alphabet gives the technology sector a boost. |
| The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has gained 0.4%, with the mining sector up 1% and tech gaining 0.5%. | The Europe-wide Stoxx 600 index has gained 0.4%, with the mining sector up 1% and tech gaining 0.5%. |
| Britain’s love for a (properly mixed) gin and tonic has swept mixer maker Fever-Tree’s shares to a fresh record high. | Britain’s love for a (properly mixed) gin and tonic has swept mixer maker Fever-Tree’s shares to a fresh record high. |
| They surged to £39.87 in early trading, up from $34.60 last night, after Fever-Tree posted a 45% jump in revenues this year. | They surged to £39.87 in early trading, up from $34.60 last night, after Fever-Tree posted a 45% jump in revenues this year. |
| The company has also landed a deal with America’s largest wine and spirits distribution company, leaving it optimistic about the future. | The company has also landed a deal with America’s largest wine and spirits distribution company, leaving it optimistic about the future. |
| CEO Tim Warrillow declared: | CEO Tim Warrillow declared: |
| Given the strong performance in the first half of the year, the Board anticipates that the outcome for the full year will be comfortably ahead of its expectations.” | Given the strong performance in the first half of the year, the Board anticipates that the outcome for the full year will be comfortably ahead of its expectations.” |
| Anyone who had the foresight to buy Fever-Tree’s shares in 2014, when they were worth below £2, can afford a cheeky double G&T tonight. | Anyone who had the foresight to buy Fever-Tree’s shares in 2014, when they were worth below £2, can afford a cheeky double G&T tonight. |
| Back in the UK, supermarkets are rubbing their hands after enjoying a boost from England’s World Cup run. | Back in the UK, supermarkets are rubbing their hands after enjoying a boost from England’s World Cup run. |
| Data firm Kantar reports that sales of alcohol at supermarkets surged to £287 million during the week that the England football team played (and beat!) Colombia and Sweden. That’s a record, if you exclude Christmas and Easter. | Data firm Kantar reports that sales of alcohol at supermarkets surged to £287 million during the week that the England football team played (and beat!) Colombia and Sweden. That’s a record, if you exclude Christmas and Easter. |
| Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: | Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Kantar Worldpanel, explains: |
| “England may not have won the World Cup – but its journey to the semi-finals not only helped to kickstart the summer, but supermarket sales to boot. | “England may not have won the World Cup – but its journey to the semi-finals not only helped to kickstart the summer, but supermarket sales to boot. |
| “Over the past month, football-frenzied customers visited supermarkets an extra 13 million times as they hurried to stock up on World Cup-viewing essentials, with alcohol in particular the stand-out winner. | “Over the past month, football-frenzied customers visited supermarkets an extra 13 million times as they hurried to stock up on World Cup-viewing essentials, with alcohol in particular the stand-out winner. |
| Supermarkets also saw strong demand for BBQ products and sun cream: | Supermarkets also saw strong demand for BBQ products and sun cream: |
| McKevitt adds: | McKevitt adds: |
| With the hot and sunny weather showing no signs of letting up, al fresco dining has continued to tempt shoppers. Over the past month, sales of firelighters and fresh burgers rocketed by 47% and 30% as customers honed their barbecuing skills. | With the hot and sunny weather showing no signs of letting up, al fresco dining has continued to tempt shoppers. Over the past month, sales of firelighters and fresh burgers rocketed by 47% and 30% as customers honed their barbecuing skills. |
| Meanwhile, sun care products and painkillers were both in demand: sales of sun creams jumped by 38%, while nearly a third of all households picked up pain-killing tablets over the past month. | Meanwhile, sun care products and painkillers were both in demand: sales of sun creams jumped by 38%, while nearly a third of all households picked up pain-killing tablets over the past month. |
| [Those pain killers might have something to do with those alcohol sales....] | [Those pain killers might have something to do with those alcohol sales....] |
| Financial analysts are impressed by the ability of Google’s parent company to keep growing fast, even with an EU antitrust case hanging over it. | Financial analysts are impressed by the ability of Google’s parent company to keep growing fast, even with an EU antitrust case hanging over it. |
| As Richard Kramer of Arete Research puts it: | As Richard Kramer of Arete Research puts it: |
| “There was never a question about Google’s dominance of a buoyant digital ads market” | “There was never a question about Google’s dominance of a buoyant digital ads market” |
| JMP Securities analyst Ron Josey agrees that Google’s core revenue stream, web adverts, remains strong: | JMP Securities analyst Ron Josey agrees that Google’s core revenue stream, web adverts, remains strong: |
| “First and foremost, Google Sites revenue has continued to grow, it’s the fourth quarter in a row of accelerating growth rates. | “First and foremost, Google Sites revenue has continued to grow, it’s the fourth quarter in a row of accelerating growth rates. |
| The company’s continued ability to reinvent or launch new ad products that have been adopted by advertisers, and that drives return on investment.” | The company’s continued ability to reinvent or launch new ad products that have been adopted by advertisers, and that drives return on investment.” |
| Forrester Research’s Collin Colburn said the $5bn fine imposed by commissioner Margrethe Vestager last week was “pretty big” for most companies, but only a “slap on the wrist” to Google. | Forrester Research’s Collin Colburn said the $5bn fine imposed by commissioner Margrethe Vestager last week was “pretty big” for most companies, but only a “slap on the wrist” to Google. |
| But Naeem Aslam of Think Markets argues that Google must avoid further financial penalties, for the sake of its reputation: | But Naeem Aslam of Think Markets argues that Google must avoid further financial penalties, for the sake of its reputation: |
| Today, it is all about Alphabet; Google is the king of the advertisement and its ad business is in full throttle. The message is clear for its investors that the company is a monster in this arena and the EU regulatory backlash hasn’t been able to damage its number in any significant way. | Today, it is all about Alphabet; Google is the king of the advertisement and its ad business is in full throttle. The message is clear for its investors that the company is a monster in this arena and the EU regulatory backlash hasn’t been able to damage its number in any significant way. |
| The internet giant reported its earning number last night and it smashed all the estimates. The crown jewel, its ads business experienced growth of 24% and its second most important lucrative business; cloud services also added a strong number. The growth in the cloud services was 37%. | The internet giant reported its earning number last night and it smashed all the estimates. The crown jewel, its ads business experienced growth of 24% and its second most important lucrative business; cloud services also added a strong number. The growth in the cloud services was 37%. |
| When we look at the Alphabet’s earning, it makes us comfortable that there is a moderate slowdown in spending. This means that the user acquisition cost is going down. This creates a more efficient environment for revenue growth. Having said this, the company cannot afford to have reputation damage and it still needs to bring fines under-control because eventually this would add go against Google’s values. | When we look at the Alphabet’s earning, it makes us comfortable that there is a moderate slowdown in spending. This means that the user acquisition cost is going down. This creates a more efficient environment for revenue growth. Having said this, the company cannot afford to have reputation damage and it still needs to bring fines under-control because eventually this would add go against Google’s values. |
| Last night, Google CEO Sundar Pichai reported that the company’s self-driving car division is making progress. | Last night, Google CEO Sundar Pichai reported that the company’s self-driving car division is making progress. |
| He told investors: | He told investors: |
| Waymo expanded its partnership with Fiat Chrysler with the option to add up to 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to its self-driving fleet. | Waymo expanded its partnership with Fiat Chrysler with the option to add up to 62,000 Chrysler Pacifica minivans to its self-driving fleet. |
| And lastly Waymo announced that it has driven more than 8 million fully autonomous miles with most of those on city streets. | And lastly Waymo announced that it has driven more than 8 million fully autonomous miles with most of those on city streets. |
| Pichai also revealed that Google Translate got a boost during the World Cup. | Pichai also revealed that Google Translate got a boost during the World Cup. |
| Pichai told investors he was: | Pichai told investors he was: |
| “...extremely proud to see the positive feedback on how useful Google Translate was for people who traveled to Russia” | “...extremely proud to see the positive feedback on how useful Google Translate was for people who traveled to Russia” |
| In these simple moments, when you’re in an unfamiliar place or you don’t know the language, Google is there to help with the right information at the right time.” | In these simple moments, when you’re in an unfamiliar place or you don’t know the language, Google is there to help with the right information at the right time.” |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| European investors are in cheerier mood today, after Google’s parent company smashed expectations last night. | European investors are in cheerier mood today, after Google’s parent company smashed expectations last night. |
| Alphabet shrugged off the impact of its penalty for breaking European competition rules, by posting revenues of $26.24bn in just the last three months, beating expectations of $25.5bn. That’s up from $20.9bn a year earlier. | Alphabet shrugged off the impact of its penalty for breaking European competition rules, by posting revenues of $26.24bn in just the last three months, beating expectations of $25.5bn. That’s up from $20.9bn a year earlier. |
| Profits dipped to $2.8bn from $4.1bn, but they would have been a sparkling $7.8bn but for the $5bn fine imposed by the EU last week. | Profits dipped to $2.8bn from $4.1bn, but they would have been a sparkling $7.8bn but for the $5bn fine imposed by the EU last week. |
| Chief financial officer Ruth Porat declared the company had delivered “another quarter of very strong performance”. Wall Street agreed - Google’s shares jumped by 4% in after-hours trading following the results. | Chief financial officer Ruth Porat declared the company had delivered “another quarter of very strong performance”. Wall Street agreed - Google’s shares jumped by 4% in after-hours trading following the results. |
| Alphabet's surprise strong results bolster the company's confidence in the face of $5 billion fine from Europe https://t.co/EwMrX7GoJC pic.twitter.com/cg8IXDe62i | Alphabet's surprise strong results bolster the company's confidence in the face of $5 billion fine from Europe https://t.co/EwMrX7GoJC pic.twitter.com/cg8IXDe62i |
| This is feeding through to Europe this morning, with shares rising in London: | This is feeding through to Europe this morning, with shares rising in London: |
| #FTSE100 Index called to open +30pts at 7685 pic.twitter.com/d0UbEoh0CV | #FTSE100 Index called to open +30pts at 7685 pic.twitter.com/d0UbEoh0CV |
| The results showed that Google’s grip on Web advertising remains extremely strong, with 58% more ‘clicks’ on its mobile and YouTube adverts than a year ago. | The results showed that Google’s grip on Web advertising remains extremely strong, with 58% more ‘clicks’ on its mobile and YouTube adverts than a year ago. |
| Non-advertising revenues (such as mobile apps, cloud computing and Google Home speakers) jumped to $4.4bn, up from around $3bn a year ago. | Non-advertising revenues (such as mobile apps, cloud computing and Google Home speakers) jumped to $4.4bn, up from around $3bn a year ago. |
| Tech shares are expected to be in demand today after Alphabet’s ‘impressive set of results’, says Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group: | Tech shares are expected to be in demand today after Alphabet’s ‘impressive set of results’, says Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group: |
| It wasn’t just the headline figures impressing traders, but also a surprise drop in costs reported by Alphabet. Costs had been increasing at a concerning rate over previous quarters as Alphabet played catch up in areas such as developing its cloud business and consumer business. | It wasn’t just the headline figures impressing traders, but also a surprise drop in costs reported by Alphabet. Costs had been increasing at a concerning rate over previous quarters as Alphabet played catch up in areas such as developing its cloud business and consumer business. |
| These higher costs had been squeezing margins causing concern particularly among short term traders. Unexpectedly lower costs have eased these fears, boosting demand for the stock in the process. | These higher costs had been squeezing margins causing concern particularly among short term traders. Unexpectedly lower costs have eased these fears, boosting demand for the stock in the process. |
| Here’s our news story on the results: | Here’s our news story on the results: |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| There’s a flurry of corporate news today, as companies clear the decks before the summer holidays. | There’s a flurry of corporate news today, as companies clear the decks before the summer holidays. |
| Swiss Bank UBS posted a 12% rise in pre-tax profits in the last quarter, thanks to its investment banking arm. European carmaker PSA has reported record earnings, after the takeover of Opel-Vauxhall last year. | Swiss Bank UBS posted a 12% rise in pre-tax profits in the last quarter, thanks to its investment banking arm. European carmaker PSA has reported record earnings, after the takeover of Opel-Vauxhall last year. |
| But UK energy producer Drax’s profits fell 15% in the first half of the year, following various outages. And among the the smaller companies, tonic and mixer-maker Fevertree has posted another big jump in profits - adjusted earnings rose 35% in the last six months, to £34m. More on all hose shortly... | But UK energy producer Drax’s profits fell 15% in the first half of the year, following various outages. And among the the smaller companies, tonic and mixer-maker Fevertree has posted another big jump in profits - adjusted earnings rose 35% in the last six months, to £34m. More on all hose shortly... |
| On the economics side, we find out how Europe’s companies are faring this month when Markit releases its ‘flash’ Purchasing Managers Survey for July. Later, the CBI publishes its healthcheck on UK factors -- will there be signs that Brexit or trade tariffs are hurting? | On the economics side, we find out how Europe’s companies are faring this month when Markit releases its ‘flash’ Purchasing Managers Survey for July. Later, the CBI publishes its healthcheck on UK factors -- will there be signs that Brexit or trade tariffs are hurting? |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 9am BST: Eurozone flash PMIs for July | 9am BST: Eurozone flash PMIs for July |
| 11am BST: CBI Industrial Trends survey of UK manufacturing | 11am BST: CBI Industrial Trends survey of UK manufacturing |