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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jun/20/may-scrambles-to-avoid-brexit-bill-defeat-analysis
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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
|---|---|
| The art of the U-turn: May scrambles to avoid Brexit bill defeat | The art of the U-turn: May scrambles to avoid Brexit bill defeat |
| (3 months later) | |
| Another day, another Commons confrontation flunked. Theresa May has turned the last-minute swerve into an art form – and by persuading Dominic Grieve, if not all of his band of followers, to swing behind the government on Wednesday, she avoided yet another much-anticipated showdown. | Another day, another Commons confrontation flunked. Theresa May has turned the last-minute swerve into an art form – and by persuading Dominic Grieve, if not all of his band of followers, to swing behind the government on Wednesday, she avoided yet another much-anticipated showdown. |
| As so often in recent days, both sides of the Brexit civil war now raging in the Tory party declared victory. | As so often in recent days, both sides of the Brexit civil war now raging in the Tory party declared victory. |
| Brexit 'meaningful vote': May wins after rebels accept compromise | Brexit 'meaningful vote': May wins after rebels accept compromise |
| Brexiters derided Grieve’s willingness to settle for a reassuring statement from the government that they regard as “purest verbiage”, and celebrated the fact the government’s flagship Brexit bill has now passed. | Brexiters derided Grieve’s willingness to settle for a reassuring statement from the government that they regard as “purest verbiage”, and celebrated the fact the government’s flagship Brexit bill has now passed. |
| “We get the bill. They get words. They ran away because they know they don’t have the numbers,” said one senior leaver. | “We get the bill. They get words. They ran away because they know they don’t have the numbers,” said one senior leaver. |
| Yet the desperate contortions of the government – including the cruel spectacle of one seriously ill Labour MP being wheeled through the voting lobby in a wheelchair because of the intransigence of Tory whips – told a different story. | Yet the desperate contortions of the government – including the cruel spectacle of one seriously ill Labour MP being wheeled through the voting lobby in a wheelchair because of the intransigence of Tory whips – told a different story. |
| Whatever the bullish Brexiters say, May and her lieutenants in the whips’ office clearly believed they were staring at the prospect of defeat. | Whatever the bullish Brexiters say, May and her lieutenants in the whips’ office clearly believed they were staring at the prospect of defeat. |
| A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole. | |
| For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements. | |
| Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union. | |
| Jennifer Rankin | |
| And the narrow margin of victory – a majority of just 16 – kept the flame of resistance alive in the hearts of remain-minded MPs. | And the narrow margin of victory – a majority of just 16 – kept the flame of resistance alive in the hearts of remain-minded MPs. |
| They hope once the debate moves out of this procedural cul-de-sac, and onto substantive issues, Tory rebels will be more likely to hold their nerve. | They hope once the debate moves out of this procedural cul-de-sac, and onto substantive issues, Tory rebels will be more likely to hold their nerve. |
| The government has promised to bring customs and trade bills back to the Commons before the July recess, and several crucial amendments, including on keeping open the option of a customs union, have a string of Conservative signatories. | The government has promised to bring customs and trade bills back to the Commons before the July recess, and several crucial amendments, including on keeping open the option of a customs union, have a string of Conservative signatories. |
| And while the Brexiters may have been crowing, Wednesday’s victory was not the hoped for decisive trouncing of the rebels. | And while the Brexiters may have been crowing, Wednesday’s victory was not the hoped for decisive trouncing of the rebels. |
| They believe May is too beholden to the rebels; and too inclined to use the prospect of parliamentary defeat as a justification for sliding towards an ever-softer Brexit. | They believe May is too beholden to the rebels; and too inclined to use the prospect of parliamentary defeat as a justification for sliding towards an ever-softer Brexit. |
| The chief whip, Julian Smith, attends the Brexit subcommittee, in which the prime minister’s deadlocked cabinet is trying to thrash out the government’s next move – so that when called upon, he can opine about about what will and won’t make it through this bitterly divided hung parliament. | The chief whip, Julian Smith, attends the Brexit subcommittee, in which the prime minister’s deadlocked cabinet is trying to thrash out the government’s next move – so that when called upon, he can opine about about what will and won’t make it through this bitterly divided hung parliament. |
| No decisive answer to that question emerged from Wednesday’s shenanigans. | No decisive answer to that question emerged from Wednesday’s shenanigans. |
| Hammond 'ordered NHS chief to back health funding plan' | Hammond 'ordered NHS chief to back health funding plan' |
| As for the prime minister herself, her heavily dented authority has taken yet another dink. She avoided defeat – but only after an undignified last-minute scramble. | As for the prime minister herself, her heavily dented authority has taken yet another dink. She avoided defeat – but only after an undignified last-minute scramble. |
| Number 10’s effort to get on the front foot at the weekend by announcing a spending splurge on the NHS has been largely overtaken by the row about which taxes would rise to pay for it. | Number 10’s effort to get on the front foot at the weekend by announcing a spending splurge on the NHS has been largely overtaken by the row about which taxes would rise to pay for it. |
| And many of the big Brexit questions – not least what customs arrangements the UK hopes to have with the EU27 – still remain unsettled, pending a (second) cabinet Chequers awayday next month. | And many of the big Brexit questions – not least what customs arrangements the UK hopes to have with the EU27 – still remain unsettled, pending a (second) cabinet Chequers awayday next month. |
| With the withdrawal bill now on the statute books, there are dark mutterings that Brexiters could chuck May overboard; but in this fractious parliament, there could be many more grinding days like this to come before the job of Brexit is complete. Even the most gung-ho leavers may be wise to bide their time. | With the withdrawal bill now on the statute books, there are dark mutterings that Brexiters could chuck May overboard; but in this fractious parliament, there could be many more grinding days like this to come before the job of Brexit is complete. Even the most gung-ho leavers may be wise to bide their time. |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Theresa May | Theresa May |
| House of Commons | House of Commons |
| Dominic Grieve | Dominic Grieve |
| European Union | European Union |
| analysis | analysis |
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