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| Wayne Swan wins Labor presidency – politics live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Back to the story in The Australian this morning, regarding Labor’s dividend imputation policy. | |
| These types of stories have a habit of recurring in Australian politics, like cycles of the moon. | |
| Remember in 2013 when Kevin Rudd was prime minister? | |
| Rudd claimed Tony Abbott, the then-opposition leader, was incorrectly boasting about having found $30bn in savings when Abbott’s own figures showed he’d only found $20bn. | |
| “It is quite clear that there is now a massive $10bn hole in the $30bn that they are claiming,” Rudd said of Abbott’s opposition at the time. | |
| Now it’s the Coalition’s turn. | |
| In today’s story, the Coalition asked Treasury to look at Labor’s dividend imputation policy to see what behavioural impacts it will have on shareholders and how much revenue it will generate after shareholders have responded to it. | |
| It calculated Labor’s policy will raise $10bn less over a decade than Labor has claimed ($45.8bn, rather than $55.7bn). | |
| Treasury came up with that figure by assuming many shareholders will respond to Labor’s policy by re-balancing their portfolios away from franked dividend-paying shares, and that the size of their behavioural response will differ depending on the source of the franked dividend and the size of the refund. | |
| There’s nothing wrong with that assumption. Research shows people are highly sensitive to tax rates on different savings options, and that people do tend to shift their savings towards tax-preferred vehicles. If Labor does eventually remove refundable imputation credits then some people will shift their investments away from high-yielding Australian equities into other things. | |
| But the real question is what the revenue impact will be on Labor’s budget bottom line after shareholders have changed their behaviour. | |
| The problem is, we don’t really know. That’s because Labor’s policy was modelled by the Parliamentary Budget Office, and the PBO said it took behavioural changes into account but we don’t know what those assumptions are because Labor has refused to release the modelling. | |
| So, the Coalition is essentially using today’s story to try to force Labor to release the assumptions underpinning its PBO modelling. | |
| It’s all pretty messy, and tedious. Surely voters are sick of these games. | |
| Labor’s responded by questioning the legitimacy of the Treasury analysis because it turns out the analysis was put together by a Treasury official who used to be a staffer for Kelly O’Dwyer and Mitch Fifield, and who was also a former vice-president of the Young Liberals. | |
| And now Chris Bowen, the shadow treasurer, has written to Treasury Secretary John Fraser asking him to explain what the Treasury “analysis” is all about. | |
| He asked Fraser if Treasury has even modelled Labor’s policy, or if it simply modelled a policy that shared characteristics with Labor’s policy. | |
| “He replied that [Treasury was] asked by the government to cost a policy relating to the deniability of refundability of franking credits to certain entities,” Bowen said. | |
| Brendan Coates, from the Grattan Institute think-tank, says Labor and the Coalition need to release the assumptions underpinning their various modelling exercises for transparency’s sake. | |
| “We simply don’t know what assumptions the PBO and Treasury have made,” Coates told Guardian Australia. | |
| “The behavioural responses are very complex, so there’s significant uncertainty regarding the revenue that will be collected from the policy change.” | |
| The votes for the Labor presidency were: | |
| Wayne Swan – 46.94% | |
| Mark Butler – 37.69% | |
| Mish-Elle Myers – 10.94% | |
| Claire Moore – 4.3 % | |
| Myers, a Maritime Union officer, was put forward in a move seen as an attempt to divide the left vote – and it looks like it worked. Her 11%, assuming it all went to Butler (and for left unions, it most likely would have) would have just got him over the line. | |
| Butler had talked about reform of union powers in Senate selections and the like, while Swan ran a campaign based on inequality. | |
| It’s largely a ceremonial position – but is on the national executive so the president is powerful, from an institutional point of view. | |
| The votes are in – and Wayne Swan will take over as ALP president from Mark Butler. | |
| I’ll bring you some more on that as soon as I can. | |
| I am hearing that the government is blocking attempts to have the Greens axe the tampon tax legislation (which passed the Senate on the voices) debated in the house today. | |
| Soooo, things are going well then: | |
| .@The_Nationals does not, and has no intention of ever supporting the privatisation of the #ABC. #auspol pic.twitter.com/Op4YcNPcOX | |
| Side note – does anyone think the continual attacks on the ABC by our politicians may have led to the idea that the government privatising the broadcaster is actually something people might believe? | |
| Chris Bowen is addressing the Treasury analysis Scott Morrison was talking about this morning (that was on Labor’s franking credits, which found there was a $10bn black hole, because it didn’t take into account changing investment behaviour. Labor received its costings from the Parliamentary Budget Office – which is independent) | |
| This morning I wrote to the secretary of the Treasury, seeking more information. A short time ago the secretary of the Treasury responded to me. I asked him whether the policy costed was Labor’s policy. He replied that we were asked by the government to cost a policy relating to the desirability of refundability of franking credits to certain entities. I asked for details of the external report that was referred to in several newspapers this morning. The secretary of the Treasury informs me, and I quote, ‘There was no external review.’ | |
| Now, it’s time for the treasurer to stop these silly games. The treasurer won’t even release the10-year costs of his corporate tax cut plan and yet he’s encouraging the Treasury to cost Labor’s policies over the decade. I spoke also today to the parliamentary budget officer, who has informed me that the Parliamentary Budget Office stands by their costing of Labor’s policies, and the Parliamentary Budget Office may well have more to say in their own right. | |
| Good Beyoncé – I just looked at the clock and realised we haven’t even had question time yet. | Good Beyoncé – I just looked at the clock and realised we haven’t even had question time yet. |
| As for whether Clive Palmer can register his party name or not, here is what a spokesman for the AEC had to say when I asked them: | As for whether Clive Palmer can register his party name or not, here is what a spokesman for the AEC had to say when I asked them: |
| Whenever a writ has been issued for a federal election the register of political parties is frozen. What this means is that any party registration applications received prior to this point are not taken forward until after the writs have been returned. | Whenever a writ has been issued for a federal election the register of political parties is frozen. What this means is that any party registration applications received prior to this point are not taken forward until after the writs have been returned. |
| I cannot say whether or not we have received an application for UAP yet but regardless, with writs issued for the byelections on Friday the register is currently frozen. The timing for an application depends on a few factors –primarily whether or not correspondence needs to occur to ensure the applicant has a valid constitution or details the sufficient sitting MP or 500 members of the party – an application cannot progress further without meeting this criteria. Then the application is advertised for a period of a month to allow for people to object. Again, timing depends on the number and nature of objections received. | I cannot say whether or not we have received an application for UAP yet but regardless, with writs issued for the byelections on Friday the register is currently frozen. The timing for an application depends on a few factors –primarily whether or not correspondence needs to occur to ensure the applicant has a valid constitution or details the sufficient sitting MP or 500 members of the party – an application cannot progress further without meeting this criteria. Then the application is advertised for a period of a month to allow for people to object. Again, timing depends on the number and nature of objections received. |
| The Uniting Australia party is no longer of the federal register of parties. My understanding is that similarities to this party name was behind his switch to the PUP last time. | The Uniting Australia party is no longer of the federal register of parties. My understanding is that similarities to this party name was behind his switch to the PUP last time. |
| More info on registering parties federally can be found here. | More info on registering parties federally can be found here. |
| Sarah Henderson, who worked for the ABC about a decade ago, was asked on Sky News whether she believed the ABC was biased: | Sarah Henderson, who worked for the ABC about a decade ago, was asked on Sky News whether she believed the ABC was biased: |
| “I certainly do think that the ABC has to be very, very careful about giving equal and balanced coverage and I think they do go off the rails from time to time but then they are not the only media organisation to do that.” | “I certainly do think that the ABC has to be very, very careful about giving equal and balanced coverage and I think they do go off the rails from time to time but then they are not the only media organisation to do that.” |
| Asked for an example: | Asked for an example: |
| “I can’t think of anyone in particular right now ... I think there are times where we see there’s probably not enough balanced coverage. | “I can’t think of anyone in particular right now ... I think there are times where we see there’s probably not enough balanced coverage. |
| “And I saw it firsthand, that was a while ago clearly, when I worked for the ABC, but let me say the ABC has some great journalists who do some great work. I would like to see the ABC put money into regional Australia. That is a really big problem.” | “And I saw it firsthand, that was a while ago clearly, when I worked for the ABC, but let me say the ABC has some great journalists who do some great work. I would like to see the ABC put money into regional Australia. That is a really big problem.” |
| Who turned on the sprinklers (apparently it was automatic)? | Who turned on the sprinklers (apparently it was automatic)? |
| We may have our answer. | We may have our answer. |
| pic.twitter.com/FSOWKa5H1p | pic.twitter.com/FSOWKa5H1p |
| Christian Porter’s office has issued an URGENT media alert (from his statement): | Christian Porter’s office has issued an URGENT media alert (from his statement): |
| Australians will be protected from the deliberately deceptive behaviour seen during the 2016 election campaign – the so-called Mediscare campaign. | Australians will be protected from the deliberately deceptive behaviour seen during the 2016 election campaign – the so-called Mediscare campaign. |
| Attorney general Christian Porter said parliament today passed laws to make it a criminal offence to impersonate a commonwealth entity, company or service, such as a government agency or department. | Attorney general Christian Porter said parliament today passed laws to make it a criminal offence to impersonate a commonwealth entity, company or service, such as a government agency or department. |
| “We all saw during the last election the deliberately deceptive behaviour where Labor sent text messages purporting to be from Medicare but which were actually direct political propaganda from Labor designed to deceive and scare voters over the future of Medicare,” the attorney general said. | “We all saw during the last election the deliberately deceptive behaviour where Labor sent text messages purporting to be from Medicare but which were actually direct political propaganda from Labor designed to deceive and scare voters over the future of Medicare,” the attorney general said. |
| “Under this legislation, it would be a criminal offence to undertake such deceptive activities, with those responsible facing penalties of up to five years imprisonment. | “Under this legislation, it would be a criminal offence to undertake such deceptive activities, with those responsible facing penalties of up to five years imprisonment. |
| “Whilst it was already a criminal offence to impersonate a commonwealth official, these new laws put beyond doubt the ability prosecutors [have] to deal appropriately with those who pretend to be, or be acting on behalf of, a government body.” | “Whilst it was already a criminal offence to impersonate a commonwealth official, these new laws put beyond doubt the ability prosecutors [have] to deal appropriately with those who pretend to be, or be acting on behalf of, a government body.” |
| The attorney general said it was important that the Australian community could have and maintain confidence in their major institutions. | The attorney general said it was important that the Australian community could have and maintain confidence in their major institutions. |
| “The passage of this legislation ensures that our institutions cannot be misused by those with other agendas and protects the community from criminal misrepresentation of those institutions,” the attorney general said. | “The passage of this legislation ensures that our institutions cannot be misused by those with other agendas and protects the community from criminal misrepresentation of those institutions,” the attorney general said. |
| “The legislation includes safeguards to ensure the new offences do not limit freedom of expression or stifle public debate. Specific protections are included for artistic or satirical misrepresentations of government. These protections ensure Australia’s longstanding and celebrated tradition of satire and artistic freedom continues, whilst protecting people from deliberate deception for specific purposes.” | “The legislation includes safeguards to ensure the new offences do not limit freedom of expression or stifle public debate. Specific protections are included for artistic or satirical misrepresentations of government. These protections ensure Australia’s longstanding and celebrated tradition of satire and artistic freedom continues, whilst protecting people from deliberate deception for specific purposes.” |
| The ABC will always be in public hands, it will never be sold, that is my commitment, it is a public broadcaster | The ABC will always be in public hands, it will never be sold, that is my commitment, it is a public broadcaster |
| “It always has been and it always will be.” | “It always has been and it always will be.” |
| It sounds like this one has had some practice. | It sounds like this one has had some practice. |
| On how the government negotiations with the crossbench are going with its income tax bill, Malcolm Turnbull had this to say: | On how the government negotiations with the crossbench are going with its income tax bill, Malcolm Turnbull had this to say: |
| We’ll be engaging, as we always do with the crossbench, respectfully and as persuasively as we can, not through the medium of a press conference.” | We’ll be engaging, as we always do with the crossbench, respectfully and as persuasively as we can, not through the medium of a press conference.” |