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Cleric who fought US takes surprise lead in Iraq elections Iraq election propels firebrand cleric from fringes to centre stage
(about 9 hours later)
An Iraqi nationalist cleric who led two uprisings against US troops has taken a surprise lead in parliamentary elections, fending off Iran-backed rivals and the country’s incumbent prime minister, the electoral commission has said. The Iraqi firebrand cleric Moqtada al-Sadr will begin talks to form a government after winning more seats than the prime minister in a national election that has made him an unlikely kingmaker.
With 95% of the votes counted in 10 of Iraq’s 18 provinces, Moqtadr al-Sadr, a rare enemy of both the US and Iran, is ahead with Tehran-backed Shia militia chief Hadi al-Amiri’s bloc in second place and the prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, trailing in third. Sadr’s strong showing in Saturday’s election moves him from the fringes of Iraq’s political life to the messy centre stage and appears to give him a strong say on who will lead the country.
The preliminary results are a severe setback for Abadi, who had entered the election campaign as the frontrunner. The Shia cleric ran on a nationalist platform and has been avowedly anti-US since he led a militia that played a leading role in the civil war and the fight against the American occupation in the years after the invasion that ousted Saddam Hussein.
Sadr has a zealous following among the young, poor and dispossessed but had been sidelined by influential Iranian-backed figures. He has also been a fervent critic of Iran’s role in Iraq, putting him at odds with significant parts of the political establishment.
He will not become prime minister as he did not run in the election but his apparent victory puts him in a position to pick someone for the job. Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically guarantee that, however. The other winning blocs would have to agree on the nomination. Washington’s preferred candidate, the incumbent prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, appears to have come third in the vote, trailing both Sadr and Hadi al-Ameri, the Iranian-backed leader of Shia militia groups who helped the national military defeat Islamic State.
Sadr and Amiri both came in first in four of the 10 provinces where votes were counted, but the cleric’s bloc won significantly more votes in the capital, Baghdad, which has the highest number of seats. Final results due late on Wednesday could alter the landscape, but Sadr remains highly likely to have secured more seats than anyone else – an extraordinary result for a figure who had been seen by many outside Iraq as unsavoury and hostile, and by politicians in Iraq as a spoiler candidate.
Security and commission sources had earlier said Abadi was leading in the election, which was held on Saturday and is the first since the defeat of Islamic State in the country. Sadr’s win was delivered by a loyal base among Iraq’s large Shia working class. He won the vote in Baghdad by a large margin, helped by a high turnout in Sadr City. Voters largely stayed home in the rest of the Iraqi capital, contributing to a historically low turnout overall, fed by a waning confidence in the country’s politicians.
Turnout was 44.52%, the Independent High Electoral Commission said, significantly lower than in previous elections. Full results are due to be officially announced later on Monday. Assembling a government is likely to take many months, with a coalition of at least 165 seats needed. Alliances that were formed before the vote are unlikely to hold, and it remains possible that Abadi could be appointed for a second term with Sadr’s support. Both blocs campaigned on nationalist lines and are wary of Iranian influence.
The commission did not announce how many seats each bloc had gained and said it would do so after announcing the results from the remaining provinces. Iran’s interests are rooted in Ameri and the former prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, who appears likely likely to have won 25 seats – enough of a presence to demand a stake in the government.
A document provided to Reuters by a candidate in Baghdad that was also circulating among journalists and analysts showed results from all 18 provinces. Reuters calculations based on the document showed Sadr had won the nationwide popular vote with more than 1.3m votes and gained 54 of parliament’s 329 seats. He was followed by Amiri with more than 1.2m votes, translating into 47 seats, and Abadi with more than 1m votes and 42 seats. Before the election, Ali Akbar Velyati, a senior adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said: “We will not allow liberals and communists to govern Iraq.”
Sadr is one of the few Shia leaders to have distanced himself from Iran and Tehran has publicly stated it would not allow his bloc to govern. He portrays himself as an Iraqi nationalist and last year met Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia, who is staunchly opposed to Iran. Sadr had formed an alliance with the Communist party – another sign that his politics have become more pragmatic in recent years – and campaigned heavily on re-enfranchising Sunnis in Iraqi public life.
In a 2010 election, vice-president Ayad Allawi’s group won the largest number of seats, albeit with a narrow margin, but he was blocked from becoming prime minister, for which he blamed Tehran. Saudi Arabia, long at odds with Iraq during the post-Saddam years, invited Sadr to Riyadh this year where the crown prince Mohammed bin Salman praised his stance on Iran.
In the wake of the election results, which western observers initially thought favoured Abadi, a senior diplomat said the anti-sectarian rhetoric that preceded the poll would be put to the test during the horse-trading period.
“If the bridge between Iraqi Arab Shia and Iran is greater than the bridge between Iraqi Arab Shia and Sunnis, then that could mark the end,” said a senior diplomat. “The street has far more influence now than it did before and part of that is because it is fed up with everything and everyone.”
Sadr’s nationalist credentials have not been tested in any of the areas that remain critical to the country’s future – diversifying the economy, curbing corruption and boosting services. His skill in assembling a political coalition are as much of an unknown quantity. Abadi looms as an easier fit than Ameri, a fact that could kickstart negotiations.
The coalition assembly will be a crucial battleground in a confrontation between Iran and Washington, which has been heightened by Donald Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal.
IraqIraq
Middle East and North AfricaMiddle East and North Africa
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