This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/10/federal-budget-tax-turnbull-defends-tax-plan-as-shorten-prepares-response-byelection-politics-live

The article has changed 18 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 5 Version 6
Coalition defends tax plan while attacking Labor on dual citizenship – politics live Coalition defends tax plan while attacking Labor on dual citizenship – politics live
(35 minutes later)
We’ve noticed Peter Dutton and Ray Hadley sometimes touch down on the subject of Labor front-bencher Andrew Leigh. This morning they revisited the subject of periodic fascination.
After playing a grab of Leigh defending Labor MPs who resigned yesterday, Dutton replied:
“Ah Ray just hearing him talk, closing my eyes I can see him walking around in a robe, you know, like some Greek god, and he just gets weirder and weirder.”
Hadley: “Hang on, I know you have a vivid imagination but I can’t in any circumstance close my eyes and think of Andrew Leigh in a robe as a Greek god. As a wanker, yes, but not as a Greek god.”
WEIRDER AND WEIRDER.
Speaking of totally normal cuppas, Bill Shorten had one of his own this morning:
The new Tarantino flick looks a little odd:
Malcolm Turnbull had a few things to say about that totally normal cuppa he had with a group of seniors earlier this morning:
But I tell you one thing they are very concerned about - and that is Bill Shorten’s plan to grab their savings. Shorten’s cash-grab on retirees’ savings, his grab for those franking credits is going to cost those people around the table there an enormous amount.
The lady I was sitting next to said it was going to cost her about 28% of her income. That is a massive grab! This is a $5 billion a year tax-grab that Bill Shorten is proposing in total over 10 years, a $56 billion tax grab, part of his $200 billion worth of taxes he wants to grab and what that is going to do is hit some very vulnerable Australians who have done the right thing and saved all their lives.
So when Shorten stands up tonight and talks about his plan for the budget, he’s got to explain how ripping $200 billion-plus in additional tax out of the Australian economy is not going to do anything other than inflict real hardship on hardworking Australians who saved all their lives. Discourage businesses from investing, discourage businesses from employing and set our strong economy going backwards.”
Economic modellers have had a couple of days to think about the 2018 budget and they’re starting to tell us how they think it will impact different types of families.
Two of the most respect budget modellers - NATSEM and ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods - say the tax changes in the budget will benefit the highest wage earners most.
1. University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) found this:
“Highest wage earners will benefit most from the 2018 Federal Budget.”
NATSEM’s modelling shows a two-parent family with both parents earning $100,000 and two school-aged children will be $1,022 better off in 2018/19 compared to 2017/18. This will increase to $4,280 by 2024-25.
Low-middle income earners are set to benefit from handouts of up to $530 starting next financial year, meaning a lone parent family earning $70,000 per year and with two children will be $757 better off in 2018-19 and $3,486 better off by 2024-25 due to indexing of FTB-A and FTB-B.
2. ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods found this:
“Most of the reductions in tax are directed towards the top two income quintiles.”
“The targeting of the tax cuts more strongly favours higher income households over lower income households where the cuts are much more modest (both in dollar and percentage terms). However, it is important to remember that average tax rates of middle to higher income households are still projected to increase over the next decade.”
Its model found by 2027, a couple with two children earning more than $130,000 a year will be saving close to $8000.
At the same time, a low income couple with two children will save just $203.
Speaking to Sky, Pauline Hanson answers Samantha Maiden’s question on linking income tax cut support to the migration rate (“You’ve had a look at the income tax cuts and you want the government in the context of that to have a look at the immigration level – how?”) with an “Oh, definitely”.
She continues:
They have based their whole budget on immigration and productivity. The higher immigration figures, that means the DDP [GDP] per person coming into the country, as they are saying, they are going to contribute to the country.
The fact is, it doesn’t. Because we can’t provide the infrastructure, the hospitals, the schools, the roads. We can see what is happening in our cities. So the government brings it for it to balance the GDP out and says it is productivity. But then everything is handed to the states, to provide the services. And they can’t cope.
So what I am saying to the government is it is not realistic what they are saying. And it is not – the whole budget is a house of cards that could possibly fall.
Right.
The adding that “they have built the whole budget around immigration”, and she wants it capped “around 75,000 people a year”.
We are the highest growing country in the world, with 1.6% increase and that’s double than a lot of other countries. We need to reign it back in because we haven’t got the money to provide for the infrastructure projects and people are screaming. When you actually hear from about 54 to 60% of the Australian populace want a reduction in immigration, but the government and the Labor [party] are not listening. They are basing their whole economic policy based on immigration numbers coming into the country. They are not the ones queuing to see the doctor, or queuing for housing, or the cost of housing rising. It is an impact on people’s lifestyle.
Maiden then asks whether that means One Nation won’t support the tax plan, unless the government makes some movement in the immigration space.
Hanson:
We will support the first stage and the second stage.
They actually haven’t been upfront with people in the first stage. They are talking about every Australian is going to benefit by $530 a year with this (the government has said earners between $41,000 and $90,000 will receive the full tax offset).
... That $530 a year is only if you have a liability. So if you have paid your taxes over the year and the department doesn’t owe you money, you are not going to get a cut. It is only if the government owes you money that you are, you know, be any better off.
Yes. Because it is a tax offset payment.
She confirms One Nation will support stage one of the plan (the $530 tax offset) and stage two (moving the threshold from $87,000 to $90,000 and in 2022 moving it again from $90,000 to $120,000)
Then she says:
Australians, and I know, I am talking to Australians every day. The cost of living is escalating. Wages are not real increase in wages. They want relief. And I can understand that. I really do. But are we really addressing the blackhole in the budget that we have? No, we are not. The government is not addressing. They are bringing in revenue from other areas to actually support these cuts in a big way. You know, he is only talking about a $2.2bn surplus by 2019-20. If China falls over and the trade there and we have problems with China, that is actually going to affect our budget.
So step one – the offset, that is a yes. But then she says:
They’re saying they don’t know how many people are actually going to get it (the government says just over four million people will be eligible for it) but people believe they are actually going to get that money back from the taxation department at the end of the year. But they’re not.
If the government owes you a debt, if the government owes you money, then you’ll get that $530 back. But if you don’t have a debt, you are not going to get a recovery back off that. So it is deceiving ... what the government has allowed people to believe is going to happen. They think they are all going to get that $530 a back. That is not the case at all.
Except it is called a tax OFFSET. In that it offsets your tax.
But once again, step one and step two get the tick of support from One Nation. So bringing it back to what sparked the interest in this interview in the first place – Hanson saying she wanted to link support for the bill to the migration rate, we come full circle to this:
Do you think they are going to give it to me? Because I tell you what, they reduce the numbers in immigration by bringing it down only by 0.2 of a per cent is going to throw the whole economic budget figures.
So will she link support for the tax cuts to immigration? To which she answered “oh, definitely” just seven (very, very long) minutes ago?
No one else is going to support this. You have all the political parties, everyone agreeing with these tax cuts, right? So I can’t deny Australians there. If the majority there in the Senate support this ... (but what will you get for your support?)
Because the tax cuts for ordinary Australians who need this break, but I believe that we should have better economic management from getting the revenues that we need from the gasfields. We are not getting the money we need from our resources. This is what I am talking about.
If there is anyone, anyone at all who can make sense of that, please let me know.
Back to Mathias Cormann:Back to Mathias Cormann:
Whatever promises Bill Shorten gives today, whatever rolled gold guarantee he gives to the Australian people, the Australian people know, that whatever promises Bill Shorten makes today, whatever rolled gold guarantees Bill Shorten provides them in his speech tonight, they cannot be trusted.Whatever promises Bill Shorten gives today, whatever rolled gold guarantee he gives to the Australian people, the Australian people know, that whatever promises Bill Shorten makes today, whatever rolled gold guarantees Bill Shorten provides them in his speech tonight, they cannot be trusted.
And on the (three separate) modelling which has found that most of the tax cuts will go to high income earners?And on the (three separate) modelling which has found that most of the tax cuts will go to high income earners?
We are providing income tax relief to encourage and reward hardworking Australians and we are prioritising low and middle income earners over the first four years – overwhelmingly of course. The income tax relief we are providing in our budget is going to low and middle income earners and we call on Bill Shorten to back the plan in full.We are providing income tax relief to encourage and reward hardworking Australians and we are prioritising low and middle income earners over the first four years – overwhelmingly of course. The income tax relief we are providing in our budget is going to low and middle income earners and we call on Bill Shorten to back the plan in full.
Which it is - over the first four years. But beyond that - well, higher income earners will be quite happy.Which it is - over the first four years. But beyond that - well, higher income earners will be quite happy.
Bob Katter was just on Sky News, which just reminded me to check if anyone in north Queensland had been torn apart by a crocodile since February.Bob Katter was just on Sky News, which just reminded me to check if anyone in north Queensland had been torn apart by a crocodile since February.
No one has.No one has.
Let a thousand blossoms bloom.Let a thousand blossoms bloom.
I’ll come back to both Mathias Cormann and Pauline Hanson in just a moment, but I was just working my way through Barnaby Joyce’s Sky interview, where he became the prime example for how anglos RUIN food.I’ll come back to both Mathias Cormann and Pauline Hanson in just a moment, but I was just working my way through Barnaby Joyce’s Sky interview, where he became the prime example for how anglos RUIN food.
The man who once posed with a tea towel draped behind his neck like a prizefighter mulling over the meaning of life, now says he does “all the cooking, I do the washing, hang things out”, when he is at home.The man who once posed with a tea towel draped behind his neck like a prizefighter mulling over the meaning of life, now says he does “all the cooking, I do the washing, hang things out”, when he is at home.
And his specialty? RUINING food.And his specialty? RUINING food.
“... The regular roast that becomes curries that become risotto.”“... The regular roast that becomes curries that become risotto.”
And then he just works his way down. To what? Roast curry rice pudding?And then he just works his way down. To what? Roast curry rice pudding?
(Yes, I too use leftovers. But curries to risotto? You know what a roast becomes? Sandwiches. Or cold roast)(Yes, I too use leftovers. But curries to risotto? You know what a roast becomes? Sandwiches. Or cold roast)
The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, has got stuck into Bill Shorten about his interpretation of high court decisions on the “reasonable steps” test. Dutton told 2GB radio:The home affairs minister, Peter Dutton, has got stuck into Bill Shorten about his interpretation of high court decisions on the “reasonable steps” test. Dutton told 2GB radio:
He lied to the Australian people yesterday. I watched that press conference with Bill Shorten and I saw him look down the barrel of a camera and he blatantly lied, there’s no question about it. I think Mr Shorten has a credibility problemHe lied to the Australian people yesterday. I watched that press conference with Bill Shorten and I saw him look down the barrel of a camera and he blatantly lied, there’s no question about it. I think Mr Shorten has a credibility problem
... Yesterday I think people really saw Bill Shorten exposed and he essentially said absolutely something that wasn’t true, and he knew it not to be true. The high court only confirmed what they’d found in the Canavan case in the Gallagher case yesterday.... Yesterday I think people really saw Bill Shorten exposed and he essentially said absolutely something that wasn’t true, and he knew it not to be true. The high court only confirmed what they’d found in the Canavan case in the Gallagher case yesterday.
For Mr Shorten to pretend otherwise, I was really quite shocked by it.For Mr Shorten to pretend otherwise, I was really quite shocked by it.
Pauline Hanson will (maybe) support the government’s tax plan (maybe) if the government cuts migration.Pauline Hanson will (maybe) support the government’s tax plan (maybe) if the government cuts migration.
She wants the migration rate cut from the 190,000 ceiling to 75,000. She says it’s because cities can’t cope with population growth, and the states don’t have the money to build the necessary infrastructure.She wants the migration rate cut from the 190,000 ceiling to 75,000. She says it’s because cities can’t cope with population growth, and the states don’t have the money to build the necessary infrastructure.
Hanson also mentions that people who don’t support her call are not the ones who are having to “line up to see the doctor”.Hanson also mentions that people who don’t support her call are not the ones who are having to “line up to see the doctor”.
She fails to mention that one of the reasons we line up to see doctors, particularly in regional and rural areas, is because we, as a country, don’t have enough doctors coming out of our medical schools, WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE HAVE A MIGRATION PROGRAM.She fails to mention that one of the reasons we line up to see doctors, particularly in regional and rural areas, is because we, as a country, don’t have enough doctors coming out of our medical schools, WHICH IS ONE OF THE REASONS WE HAVE A MIGRATION PROGRAM.
I told you he was out and about - Mike Bowers spotted in his natural habitat:
Spotting a wild @MathiasCormann moving through the forest of the Senate courtyard, @mpbowers takes a shot pic.twitter.com/Rfuyu16cyz
Candidates are being announced:
Greens have just announced their Perth byelection candidate is Caroline Perks #auspol https://t.co/KiTuQWpdlJ
While Mathias Cormann is still talking, his office has released a statement doubling down on his main points:
Tonight, Bill Shorten needs to get serious about building a stronger economy.
Bill Shorten does not have a single policy to strengthen our economy and create jobs. Labor only has a series of tax grabs.
Labor needs to drop their over $200bn of higher taxes – on electricity, small and family business, incomes, housing, investment and retirees. Because Labor’s $200bn of tax grabs will hurt our economy, hurt families and cost jobs.
Labor needs to reverse their plan to increase tax for small and medium businesses. They need to back our entire plan for income tax relief to encourage and reward working Australians.
Bracket creep reduces the rewards for effort, undermines the returns to quality education, and blunts the incentive to work hard, take risks and succeed. Our plan also delivers a tax system that encourages aspirational Australians to get ahead, to take on additional work and keep more of their extra income.
Labor needs to own up to the fact that when Bill Shorten and Chris Bowen were last in government they left behind a weakening economy, rising unemployment and a rapidly deteriorating budget position.
Their anti-growth and anti-jobs agenda now would take Australia back to where Labor left off in 2013.
Labor has not delivered a surplus since 1989. They need to show how they will keep spending under control, because Australia can’t afford Labor’s economic mismanagement.
We are turning the corner on Labor’s debt and deficit disaster. We have a plan to return the budget to a modest balance by 2019-20, increasing to projected surpluses in 2020-21 and 2021-22. We are no longer borrowing to fund recurrent expenditure.
Sigh. We are in for months and months and months of this. From all sides. And then the byelections will end, but we’ll be very much in general election campaign mode by then, so we’ll be bombarded with even more. Essentially – electioneering is coming.
Mathias Cormann has just given a “rolled gold guarantee” that the Coalition has no more problems with dual citizens.
That’s because questions over Jason Falinski in particular won’t go away. He has updated his register with the advice saying he is not and never was a Polish citizen, but Labor is still pursuing for him to be referred to the high court and for the full bench to work it out. (Polish citizenship law is one of those complicated ones.)
Cormann and others within the government have seized on Bill Shorten’s “rolled gold guarantee” that Labor had no problems with citizenship, because of its vetting processes, which was made during a Today interview last year, when he was asked if he could give a “rolled gold guarantee” and he answered “yes”.
Just your reminder that rolled gold is actually very cheap – it’s when silver or other medals are rolled in gold to increase their value. But as anyone who has bought a gold-plated or gold-filled piece of jewellery knows, it rubs off.
Greg Jericho has had a look at the government’s tax plan - you’ll find his whole analysis here, but here’s a short take:
In 2015-16 the roughly 400,000 people who had incomes between $156,500 and $241,000 paid an average 32.6% tax on their income for a total of $24.7bn. Dropping that average tax rate to 29.5% would see a drop of $2.4bn in tax revenue – that’s around a quarter of the cost of Newstart each year. Add in cuts from the other two million or so people earning over $90,000 and you are talking big money – every year.
And it’s why the prime minister and treasurer have refused to say how much it will cost, and are sticking with the “$140bn over 10 years” line – but refusing to explain what is included in that figure, let alone breaking it down to individual items.
Barnaby Joyce is very much enjoying Labor’s dual citizenship misfortunes. Here’s Joyce telling Sky of his time waiting for the high court decision that ultimately found he was ineligible to sit in parliament as a dual citizen.
Then they [Labor] would move that the member be no longer heard, then they would have a vote, then they would make a baaa-ing [sheep] noises and they thought it was a great joke, they were absolutely ridiculing me.
It was puerile, but it showed the hypocrisy of the Labor party, because as we were going through this, we were saying, ‘surely there are people on your own side in the same position’. But oh no, he [Bill Shorten] came out and said, ‘oh no, we are as pure as the driven snow, nothing to see here’. They must feel like complete and utter hypocrites.
Lyle Shelton, Cory Bernardi’s Australian Conservatives spokesman in Queensland, has started today with an attack on Pauline Hanson and One Nation. Here’s Shelton’s press release:
One Nation’s decision to side with Labor and popularist Senate cross-benchers to block the government’s plan to reward effort through the tax system is disappointing for conservative Queenslanders.
Australian Conservatives spokesman Lyle Shelton said today’s move by Pauline Hanson to block Scott Morrison’s legislation to flatten the tax system brings into focus the choice conservative alternative party voters have at the next federal election.
‘Voters are right to retain their scepticism of the major parties, but in choosing third-party insurance in the Senate they should consider the principles their minor party of choice stands for.
‘Australian Conservatives exists to make conservative politics better after years of failure. We do this by taking a principled stand and rewarding conservative policy when it is offered,’ Mr Shelton said.
‘One Nation’s position on tax has flipped and flopped all year. First they opposed the company tax cuts and now they support them.
‘Today they are working with Labor and the Greens to block reform that would reward aspiration. What will their policy be tomorrow?’
Mr Shelton said Australian Conservatives would pitch to voters looking for candidates who would stand for conservative principles, rather than simply articulating grievance.
It’s so sad when you used to have mad love, but then you have bad blood.
Looks like Mathias Cormann is being sent out on the theory that the best defence is a good offence, ahead of Labor’s budget-in-reply. He is holding a press conference in the next 10 minutes.
The government’s insistence on putting its tax plan together as one whole package has emerged as the biggest budget disagreement so far.
Labor says it wants more detail on the tax plan before making a decision on whether or not it will support it*.
Penny Wong:
The government has put up a bill as a political tactic. Malcolm is saying you have got to vote on a bill now that is predicated on me winning an election twice. So, he wants people to vote on a bill that assumes he’s going to be here in six years’ time.
The crossbench – I saw Senator Martin, Senator Storer, Senator Hinch rightly say, ‘what’s the rush?’ and ‘tell us what it costs’. Because let’s remember, Malcolm Turnbull still hasn’t told people what his big tranche of tax cuts down the track costs and I think Australians, and the Senate, are entitled to know that.”
*An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated Labor would not support part 2 and 3. I’m told the party is still making up its mind.
Anyone would think there were two byelections about to occur in Western Australia with the way Labor’s Matt Keogh was talking this morning:
Malcolm Turnbull came over to WA only a couple of weeks ago showering WA with largess. ‘Billions of dollars,’ he said, but what did we discover on Tuesday night? Really all of that money was already hiding in the federal budget. Scott Morrison did some budget fudgery moved some dollars around and presto there it is, but actually very few new dollars for Western Australia at all.
In fact less than $200m in GST top up. Meanwhile, the Shorten Labor team have committed to Western Australia a $1.6bn GST fair share fund for WA. If Malcolm Turnbull really believed in this budget, if he really thought that it was in the best interests of not just Australians but Western Australians, he would be putting candidates up in these byelections.