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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| Local election results defy clear interpretation | Local election results defy clear interpretation |
| (6 months later) | |
| The people have spoken. But councillors and staff now have to puzzle out exactly what they said about local services and policies. Could it be that they didn’t say much at all? | The people have spoken. But councillors and staff now have to puzzle out exactly what they said about local services and policies. Could it be that they didn’t say much at all? |
| Deliberately or not voters endorsed the old Labour-Tory dualism in England’s local government. If the elections marked the end of Ukip as a presence, few will notice, the party having made little or no impact on policy or service delivery. The election results aren’t enough to change the leadership of the Local Government Association (LGA); the new communities secretary, James Brokenshire, will be polite but give the LGA no more recognition than his predecessor. | Deliberately or not voters endorsed the old Labour-Tory dualism in England’s local government. If the elections marked the end of Ukip as a presence, few will notice, the party having made little or no impact on policy or service delivery. The election results aren’t enough to change the leadership of the Local Government Association (LGA); the new communities secretary, James Brokenshire, will be polite but give the LGA no more recognition than his predecessor. |
| He can say, with evidence, this wasn’t a convincing vote against austerity; equally the vote showed a lot of people are angry at the continuing cuts. Results defy clear interpretation, especially in particular places. | He can say, with evidence, this wasn’t a convincing vote against austerity; equally the vote showed a lot of people are angry at the continuing cuts. Results defy clear interpretation, especially in particular places. |
| Take the London borough of Barnet. Labour campaigned against the Tories’ “easy council” model – which favours maximum outsourcing to Capita and other companies – and on housing. Labour lost seats and the Tory majority was restored. So whether or not the voting arithmetic is explained by Labour’s problems over anti-Semitism, the outcome could be interpreted as popular endorsement of controversial policies. | Take the London borough of Barnet. Labour campaigned against the Tories’ “easy council” model – which favours maximum outsourcing to Capita and other companies – and on housing. Labour lost seats and the Tory majority was restored. So whether or not the voting arithmetic is explained by Labour’s problems over anti-Semitism, the outcome could be interpreted as popular endorsement of controversial policies. |
| Alternatively, Barnet Tories may feel they lucked out thanks to Labour’s internal battles and might realise how close they came to defeat. Among Tory councillors at large, particularly in London, there was genuine fright about losses and the lesson being drawn is about backing away from rigid and dogmatic positions on outsourcing and social housing. Austerity continues but among incoming Tory leaders, there’s a mood of moderation, which may play out – money permitting – in more consensual and communitarian policies. | Alternatively, Barnet Tories may feel they lucked out thanks to Labour’s internal battles and might realise how close they came to defeat. Among Tory councillors at large, particularly in London, there was genuine fright about losses and the lesson being drawn is about backing away from rigid and dogmatic positions on outsourcing and social housing. Austerity continues but among incoming Tory leaders, there’s a mood of moderation, which may play out – money permitting – in more consensual and communitarian policies. |
| Affordable housing may benefit if, even in Tory councils, the conviction is growing that more must be done. In Nuneaton and Bedworth, pundits focused on Brexit as the explanation for Labour losses. Maybe, but locally the result – no overall control of the district council – creates further confusion and uncertainty about what happens to housebuilding. Before the election, the Tory opposition criticised the borough’s Labour leadership as making too generous an allocation for new homes in plans; meanwhile the (largely) Tory councils in the Warwickshire and Coventry sub region criticised the council for not making a large enough provision for new housing. | Affordable housing may benefit if, even in Tory councils, the conviction is growing that more must be done. In Nuneaton and Bedworth, pundits focused on Brexit as the explanation for Labour losses. Maybe, but locally the result – no overall control of the district council – creates further confusion and uncertainty about what happens to housebuilding. Before the election, the Tory opposition criticised the borough’s Labour leadership as making too generous an allocation for new homes in plans; meanwhile the (largely) Tory councils in the Warwickshire and Coventry sub region criticised the council for not making a large enough provision for new housing. |
| Results, in other words, may not tell you much about policy. In Haringey, it’s not at all clear whether Labour losses reflect on the borough’s controversial development scheme, which precipitated the departure of the leader, Claire Kober. Her successor confronts the hard question: if not the special purpose vehicle and private finance, what mechanism can a cash-strapped council, hemmed in by restrictions on borrowing, actually use to secure new and refurbished social rented accommodation? Haringey aside, Corbynite forces have yet to register as a municipal presence; in the Labour camp, watchwords are sensible, practical and credible and where the party remains in power, it’s business as usual. | Results, in other words, may not tell you much about policy. In Haringey, it’s not at all clear whether Labour losses reflect on the borough’s controversial development scheme, which precipitated the departure of the leader, Claire Kober. Her successor confronts the hard question: if not the special purpose vehicle and private finance, what mechanism can a cash-strapped council, hemmed in by restrictions on borrowing, actually use to secure new and refurbished social rented accommodation? Haringey aside, Corbynite forces have yet to register as a municipal presence; in the Labour camp, watchwords are sensible, practical and credible and where the party remains in power, it’s business as usual. |
| You could go round the results and point up the disparity between ostensible reasons for voting and what they mean for council decisions. In Plymouth the election, which saw Labour make gains and take control of the unitary council, was interpreted by a local Tory MP as a protest at inadequate defence spending by his own government. The result is Labour takes up the reins it dropped in 2015, except this time we are two years further into austerity, with the council’s capacity even less than it was. | You could go round the results and point up the disparity between ostensible reasons for voting and what they mean for council decisions. In Plymouth the election, which saw Labour make gains and take control of the unitary council, was interpreted by a local Tory MP as a protest at inadequate defence spending by his own government. The result is Labour takes up the reins it dropped in 2015, except this time we are two years further into austerity, with the council’s capacity even less than it was. |
| The return of Kensington and Chelsea’s ruling Tories – in charge since 1965 – may reduce urgency around Grenfell, on the part of councillors, if not the community around the tower. Ironically, the tragedy was a spur for refreshing the party leadership in the town hall, improving Tory performance at the election. | The return of Kensington and Chelsea’s ruling Tories – in charge since 1965 – may reduce urgency around Grenfell, on the part of councillors, if not the community around the tower. Ironically, the tragedy was a spur for refreshing the party leadership in the town hall, improving Tory performance at the election. |
| The return of Sheffield’s ruling Labour councillors – who have been predominant over many years – gives little or no guide to what happens next in the story of the city’s trees. Labour lost a handful of seats and the Greens gained two. You don’t have to be a psephologist to observe that at that rate of attrition, Labour is going to remain in power in Sheffield for years, whether or not its councillors stop contractor Amey going ahead and cutting down the remaining avenues. | The return of Sheffield’s ruling Labour councillors – who have been predominant over many years – gives little or no guide to what happens next in the story of the city’s trees. Labour lost a handful of seats and the Greens gained two. You don’t have to be a psephologist to observe that at that rate of attrition, Labour is going to remain in power in Sheffield for years, whether or not its councillors stop contractor Amey going ahead and cutting down the remaining avenues. |
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