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Federal budget 2018: Malcolm Turnbull begins the hard sell – politics live
Federal budget 2018: Malcolm Turnbull begins the hard sell – politics live
(35 minutes later)
The Senate will open at 9.30 - with a message from the queen.
Chris Bowen was on Radio National this morning, talking about the tax package Scott Morrison just introduced in parliament:
She’s acknowledging the 30th anniversary of the opening of parliament house.
“We think that is worthy of some examination. We don’t make 10-year tax plans in ten minutes. The Government might just be happy not to have the figures in the Budget, not to have the analysis of who wins who loses etcetera. We take a different approach. 2024, I’m not sure what you’ll be doing in 2024, I’m not sure what I’ll be doing in 2024, I’m not sure what the economy will be doing in 2024. Normally you would vote on 2024 tax cuts in 2024 or 2023. The Government is saying that you can’t have the tax cuts in 2018 unless you get the tax cuts in 2024. He’s holding a gun to the head of the 2018 tax cuts and now that’s just silly.”
Malcolm Turnbull was on Sunrise this morning, as part of his media blitz. He says the government knows what it is doing in terms of turning around the debt:
Well, the net debt is going to actually peak this year as a percentage of our economy, of GDP and then it will starts to decline. So we have actually turned the corner on debt. Then after a decade, it will be down to about 3.8 per cent of GDP. So we’re both paying down debt and once we get back into balance, which is in 2019/20 of course, we’re not adding to the debt. So the debt declines in dollar terms and absolute terms and it also declines of course, because it’s not growing and the economy is growing.
So we are bringing down the debt, we’ve turned the corner on debt.”
Presented without comment:
pic.twitter.com/oEoOoQyn89
The government wants to extend the budget tax bill debate, which is outside of convention, and Labor has given a ‘yeah, nah’, first with attitude, and now with an official no.
Chris Bowen - “seriously guys, this is pathetic. What a joke. What a joke”.
The government did not call for a division, so it seems they weren’t overly into it either. Just wanted to stir the pot.
The parliamentary Twitter accounts are having fun celebrating the building’s birthday.
It has officially entered its dirty 30s.
Parliament first sat on 9 May 1901, following Federation and elections. Tom Roberts captured the Opening of the First Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia in this piece, otherwise known as The Big Picture. pic.twitter.com/w4tlyoRC4R
Looking forward to it!! https://t.co/mz4jdY2Opn
A bit of Mike Bowers from this morning:
Scott Morrison is entering his bill into the house. His speech includes the line “the snake eating itself from the tail”.
For something new.
Our plan will deliver a personal income tax system that is lower, that is simpler, that is fairer, consistent with Liberal party beliefs.
He is racing through this. He is going so fast that the Coalition MPs can barely get in a “hear hear”.
Julia Banks and Ann Sudamalis, who sit behind the dispatch box, are nodding for their lives. Luke Howarth is doing his absolute best to look extremely interested, while simultaneously concerned. It’s their art. They don’t have to explain their art to you.
Actually, we can tell you exactly when the treasurer will be entering his bill – 9.40.
And we know that because the chief whip, Nola Marino, has just sent an email to all Coalition MPs asking them to be in the chamber to “please support the treasurer in the house”.
Thank you to the secret squirrel who passed that on. Your work is appreciated.
Coalition MPs reading this, you are needed in the chamber. Please, and thank you.
Speaking of the treasurer, he is getting ready to enter his tax bill into parliament.
That should happen in the next few minutes.
The budget fight over the surplus is also continuing. Scott Morrison says he is on track to return the budget to balance –and then a surplus the next year.
Not surprisingly, Bill Shorten isn’t as sure:
But the point about it is, and you understand that you’re a student of economics, if China decided not to buy all of our minerals tomorrow, there goes the surplus. The reality is this government has no plan to pay down debt.
Debt is north of half a trillion dollars. Put in plain English, this government has run up a debt bill for every man, woman and child in Australia of $20,000.
These people aren’t economic managers, they just lurch from crisis to crisis, and, in the meantime, the only thing they do is their DNA hardwired reaction, look after the top end of town and just feed crumbs to other people.
The Senate will open at 9.30 with a message from the Queen.
She’s acknowledging the 30th anniversary of the opening of Parliament House.
Scott Morrison will address the National Press Club just after lunch.
Scott Morrison will address the National Press Club just after lunch.
That’s being held in parliament, because parliament is still being held. Despite us talking about everything other than parliament.
That’s being held in parliament, because parliament is still being held. Despite us talking about everything other than parliament.
We have a BUSY morning.
We have a BUSY morning.
We are all waiting on the high court. And while publicly, Labor has been keeping it’s chin up, privately the party is preparing for the worst case scenario - Katy Gallagher’s case fails - and sending people to the electorates “just in case”.
We are all waiting on the high court. And while, publicly, Labor has been keeping its chin up, privately the party is preparing for the worst-case scenario – Katy Gallagher’s case fails – and sending people to the electorates “just in case”.
My sources tell me key campaigners are being placed around the states - Queensland, Tasmania and WA, so the party can hit the ground running, if it turns out Susan Lamb, Justine Keay and Josh Wilson also have to resign.
My sources tell me key campaigners are being placed around the states – Queensland, Tasmania and WA, so the party can hit the ground running if it turns out that Susan Lamb, Justine Keay and Josh Wilson also have to resign.
But no one really knows which way the high court will fall on this. The prime minister has learnt not to make such proclamations, after the whole Barnaby Joyce will be fine “and the high court will so hold” thing.
But no one really knows which way the high court will fall on this. The prime minister has learnt not to make such proclamations after the whole Barnaby Joyce will be fine “and the high court will so hold” thing.
“This isn’t a change to bracket creep, this is a total re-writing of Australia’s tax system,” Di Natale says.
“This isn’t a change to bracket creep, this is a total rewriting of Australia’s tax system,” Di Natale says.
He also has a problem with the lack of movement for Newstart. Just a reminder that hasn’t moved in real terms, in almost 25 years.
He also has a problem with the lack of movement for Newstart. Just a reminder that it hasn’t moved in real terms in almost 25 years. Di Natale says it is not just the Greens urging this, and noting that the business and welfare sectors have been calling for the same thing for years.
Di Natale says it is not just the Greens and notes that the business and welfare sector have been calling for the same thing for years.
He wants the Labor party to “draw a line in the sand” and say they won’t support the tax changes.
He wants the Labor party to “draw a line in the sand” and say they won’t support it.
Richard Di Natale has picked up this morning where he left off last night – criticising the budget.
Richard Di Natale has picked up this morning where he left off last night - criticising the budget.
He says it will “turbo-charge inequality”. He’s talking about the 2024 plan to put those on $41,000 on the same tax rate as someone earning $200,000.
He says it will “turbo-charge inequality”. He’s talking about the 2024 plan to put those on $41,000 on the same tax rate as someone earning $200,000.
“We think someone earning that sort of salary ($200,000) deserves to pay a little bit more than someone earning $41,000”
We think someone earning that sort of salary [$200,000] deserves to pay a little bit more than someone earning $41,000.
Just further from what Paul Karp told you on foreign aid, here’s a bit more from Penny Wong:
At a time when we know Australia’s influence in the region is diminishing. At a time when the Government’s own White Paper talks about the importance of soft power, what does Julie Bishop preside over? She presides over yet another cut to Australia’s Overseas Development Assistance. Yet another cut to aid on top of the $11 billion that she has presided over in cuts to date. Another $140 million and a new low. So, we’re already at a record low in terms of how much of our national income we give to the nations of our region and the poorer nations of the world. Well, we’re getting even lower, 19 cents in every $100 of national income. That’s what Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull are delivering at the same time as they are giving the banks a tax cut.”
While Malcolm Turnbull continues his media blitz (which includes no fewer than three denials there will be an early election),Greg Jericho has had a look at all those future implications of the $140 billion total tax plan.
You know, the one in the never-never. Seven years from now. Which is almost two budgets and two elections away.
The major non-budget story around this morning is news that Donald Trump has announced he will impose “the highest level of economic sanctions” on Iran, violating an international nuclear agreement and a UN resolution, breaking decisively with US allies in Europe, and potentially triggering a new crisis in the Gulf.
On Radio National, Malcolm Turnbull responded:
We regret the decision of the US. Of course, President Trump had foreshadowed that for a long time. We encourage all parties to continue to comply with the deal. And we certainly are trying to support that.
Turnbull said that he had “some optimism” that an Iran deal could survive without the United States because there is still commitment from European parties.
Asked about Iran’s reaction, he said that they “have certainly indicated that they will show restraint so far”.
Another point of attack against the budget has been the $140m cut to foreign aid.
Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong said “the Turnbull Government has continued on its disastrous path of cuts to aid, and lessening influence which can only further weaken Australia’s standing”.
But while Labor claims it will spend more on foreign aid than the Turnbull government it is very short on specifics.
On Sky News Bill Shorten said:
There’s no doubt the economic circumstances since the [global financial crisis] have changed what people hoped they could do. But I will put this general principle about foreign aid: foreign aid is also good politics. We all saw the shock and outrage about discussions between Vanuatu and China about possibly putting a new base in Vanuatu. One of the issues is: it’s not China’s fault or Vanuatu’s fault, but if Australia abandons the region we create a vacuum others will fill. So I just say to some of the people who say foreign aid is a waste of time - it is not only a good thing to do to help people, it’s good [for] strategic foreign relationships.
Pressed on specifics Shorten replied: “We’re going to crunch our numbers and see what we can do.”
A lot of stakeholders have been out criticising the fact the budget has not lifted the Newstart allowance for jobseekers, stuck at about $40 a day for singles.
Senator Tim Storer noted both the Business Council and welfare groups want it lifted because they all recognise “it’s very important for this group to be able to present themselves for work”.
Australian Council of Social Services chief executive Cassandra Goldie said “it’s shameful that the government hasn’t found the money required to lift the Newstart payment” because that would be the best policy to help some of the 3m people living below the poverty line.
On Sky News Malcolm Turnbull said the government “believes the setting is right” because Newstart is a “safety net to support people while they’re looking for work”.
It’s not like disability or aged pension which is entitled to be a substitute for employed income.
Asked about people struggling to live on $40 a day, Turnbull noted the “vast majority are in receipt of other benefits as well”.
It’s a more complex picture than that. The important thing is that they’re looking for work.
Malcolm Turnbull is out selling the budget’s centrepiece income tax cuts - framing them as hip-pocket relief for workers who haven’t had a pay rise.
He told Radio National:
We know that tax should be no higher than it needs to be in order to deliver and guarantee our essential services. We want to ensure that Australians, particularly those on middle-incomes, you know, a nurse and a teacher, they will be, next year, over $1,000 better off as a result of these reforms as a couple. This is ensuring that at a time when wage growth has been slow, ... this is giving more money, enabling people to hang on to keep more of the money they have. It’s their money.
On Sky News Turnbull said “it’s an income tax plan – we’re asking the parliament to support it all”.
He warned if the top tax bracket of $180,000 is not lifted it will soon capture workers like school principals and police super-intendants not just “millionaires” that Bill Shorten targets with his rhetoric.
Turnbull described the budget as “very realistic”, arguing it was not built off record commodity prices but rather hard work and good policies. “We’ve made our own luck,” he said.
The Business Council of Australia’s Jennifer Westacott is largely happy with the economic plan though.
She told the ABC that she expected the $530 tax offset to help boost spending - which is what Scott Morrison said was the intention last night.
And of course, she would still like to see the business cut plan passed.
Well I think people are underestimating the impact of this personal tax cut. First of all, you are targeting those low to moderate income earners, for an average couple, that’s $1,000. That’s a lot of money to a lot of people. But, you know, as it goes out, which is, kind of, fiscally calibrated and quite sensible, you know, you’re taking out a whole tax bracket. You’re taking out one of the great incentive sapping parts of our tax system. This bracket creep. You’re simplifying it, you’re allowing people from 40,000 onwards, to not have that constant anxiety that they’re going to pay more in tax. I think, most people want more money in their pocket than in the government’s pocket. So, you know, I think the challenge now is not to reverse course. The challenge is to stay the course. The challenge is to get the business conditions working. One thing that’s changed, is that other countries have put their tax rates down, particularly, the US. Yeah, we’ve got to make sure that we now make our economy more resilient to external factors like commodity prices, lift our productivity, lift our competitiveness. That’s why we need the full Enterprise Tax Plan to be passed. And we’ve also got to remember, and I keep reminding people of this, that $100 billion, I want it to be 120 but, you know, if it’s 65 or 80, we’ve got a very different budget in 4 years’ time.
The new cuts to the ABC are also raising eyebrows.
Michelle Rowland wants to know what happened to that 2014 commitment. You know - the one with Tony Abbott’s face in front of a giant board which promised no cuts to the ABC.
This Budget lays bare the utter contempt the Liberals and Nationals have for the Australian people and the ABC services they trust and rely on.The Liberals promised there would be “no cuts to the ABC” on the eve of the 2013 election. Yet on top of $254 million in cuts they have imposed since 2014, this Budget contains a further $127 million in cuts.
The Liberals have frozen indexation of the ABC’s operational funding – amounting to a cut of $83.7 million – to “ensure the ABC continues to find back-office efficiencies”. The reality is this government knows full well this means cuts to jobs, content and services at the ABC.
The Liberals and Nationals complain the ABC isn’t doing enough news coverage, yet these hypocrites have left a $43 million hole in funding for ABC news and current affairs.
The Liberals gifted $30 million to Fox Sports and relieved commercial broadcasters of $90 million in spectrum license fees, yet they are imposing swinging cuts on the ABC.”
***end statement***
The Greens have also been discussing issues they have found with the budget. The extension of robodebt isn’t winning any fans on that side of the political fence.
Rachel Siewert is worried about the plan to take money out of welfare payments, for those who have court ordered fines:
I have deep concerns about plans by the government to make compulsory deductions from income support recipients struggling to pay back fines.
This will disproportionately affect the most vulnerable in our community and I will be chasing up the detail in Senate estimates.
Scott Morrison and Malcolm Turnbull have been out and about since the crack of dawn selling their message – they are very happy with the budget and think you should be too.
“The economic plan is to deliver strong economic growth,” Turnbull said this morning. “That’s the plan we’re working on, and what that is doing is ensuring that more hard-working Australian families can keep more of what they earn.”
Bill Shorten has also been out and about very early as well – and he is less happy with the budget.
“The real problem is with this budget, even though it was only one line in a speech last night, as to Morrison is giving away $80bn to the top end of town and, in the meantime, cuts to schools and pensioners being backed into the budget. They are pretty out of touch and I thought last night was uninspiring. What they are basically saying is, ‘Let’s get $80bn to the top end of town and, in the meantime, we might give you $10 a week.’”
Labor will support the July 1 tax changes – the ones that give workers up to $530 as a tax offset when they do their tax NEXT year, but doesn’t appear overly into the seven-year total plan, which includes a flat rate tax in 2024, meaning all earners between $44,000 and $200,000 would pay the same amount.
It’ll never happen, but Morrison plans on legislating it all together as a package, so prepare for that battle.
Meanwhile, Labor is keeping one eye on the high court this morning, with the justices handing down their decision on whether Katy Gallagher is eligible to remain in parliament because she took reasonable steps to divest herself of her dual citizenship.
The Labor senator didn’t receive her confirmation until after she had nominated. If the court rules reasonable steps are not enough when foreign law doesn’t “irremediably prevent” renunciation, then Susan Lamb, Justine Keay and Josh Wilson will have to resign, sparking byelections in Longman, Braddon and Fremantle. Centre Alliance’s Rebehka Sharkie would also find herself headed for a byelection. Throw in Tim Hammond from Perth, who resigned to spend more time with his family, and that is potentially, quite the super Saturday.
We’ll bring you that as soon as it happens – 10.15am is the scheduled judgment delivery, and Paul Karp will be at the court.
Mike Bowers is out and about – follow his adventures at @mpbowers and @mikepbowers.
You’ll find me in the comments, but more directly at @amyremeikis or @pyjamapolitics.
Ready to get going? I have had three coffees already, so I am BUZZING!
