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| Trump just manufactured a national security crisis for no reason | Trump just manufactured a national security crisis for no reason |
| (about 2 months later) | |
| Imagine the president of the United States of America sitting in the White House Situation Room with his top national security advisers and deciding that there are not enough threats to US national security. There are not enough wars and humanitarian crises around the world. The United States is bored. Imagine the president deciding to manufacture a new national security crisis that will directly threaten America, its allies and the world. | Imagine the president of the United States of America sitting in the White House Situation Room with his top national security advisers and deciding that there are not enough threats to US national security. There are not enough wars and humanitarian crises around the world. The United States is bored. Imagine the president deciding to manufacture a new national security crisis that will directly threaten America, its allies and the world. |
| Sounds like the work of fiction, right? Unfortunately, not. President Trump announced his decision for the United States to violate the diplomatic agreement that is currently preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – and with that decision Trump produced a new, unnecessary crisis. | Sounds like the work of fiction, right? Unfortunately, not. President Trump announced his decision for the United States to violate the diplomatic agreement that is currently preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – and with that decision Trump produced a new, unnecessary crisis. |
| In July 2015, Iran and a six-nation negotiating group reached a landmark agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that ended a 12-year deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme. The deal, struck in Vienna after nearly two years of intensive talks, limited the Iranian programme, to reassure the rest of the world that it cannot develop nuclear weapons, in return for sanctions relief. | In July 2015, Iran and a six-nation negotiating group reached a landmark agreement known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that ended a 12-year deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme. The deal, struck in Vienna after nearly two years of intensive talks, limited the Iranian programme, to reassure the rest of the world that it cannot develop nuclear weapons, in return for sanctions relief. |
| At its core, the JCPOA is a straightforward bargain: Iran’s acceptance of strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for an escape from the sanctions that grew up around its economy over a decade prior to the accord. Under the deal, Iran unplugged two-thirds of its centrifuges, shipped out 98% of its enriched uranium and filled its plutonium production reactor with concrete. Tehran also accepted extensive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has verified 10 times since the agreement, and as recently as February, that Tehran has complied with its terms. In return, all nuclear-related sanctions were lifted in January 2016, reconnecting Iran to global markets. | At its core, the JCPOA is a straightforward bargain: Iran’s acceptance of strict limits on its nuclear programme in return for an escape from the sanctions that grew up around its economy over a decade prior to the accord. Under the deal, Iran unplugged two-thirds of its centrifuges, shipped out 98% of its enriched uranium and filled its plutonium production reactor with concrete. Tehran also accepted extensive monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has verified 10 times since the agreement, and as recently as February, that Tehran has complied with its terms. In return, all nuclear-related sanctions were lifted in January 2016, reconnecting Iran to global markets. |
| The six major powers involved in the nuclear talks with Iran were in a group known as the P5+1: the UN security council’s five permanent members – China, France, Russia, the UK and the US – and Germany. The nuclear deal is also enshrined in a UN security council resolution that incorporated it into international law. The 15 members of the council at the time unanimously endorsed the agreement. | The six major powers involved in the nuclear talks with Iran were in a group known as the P5+1: the UN security council’s five permanent members – China, France, Russia, the UK and the US – and Germany. The nuclear deal is also enshrined in a UN security council resolution that incorporated it into international law. The 15 members of the council at the time unanimously endorsed the agreement. |
| Read a full explainer here | Read a full explainer here |
| Let’s quickly go over how we got here. Just a few years ago, Iran was working to get a nuclear weapon, and making progress. After years of a sustained, highly coordinated campaign of sanctions backed by most of the world, the economic pressure forced Iran to come to the negotiating table. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, China and Russia got Iran to agree to stop its nuclear weapons program and to never attempt to get a nuclear weapon. | Let’s quickly go over how we got here. Just a few years ago, Iran was working to get a nuclear weapon, and making progress. After years of a sustained, highly coordinated campaign of sanctions backed by most of the world, the economic pressure forced Iran to come to the negotiating table. The United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, China and Russia got Iran to agree to stop its nuclear weapons program and to never attempt to get a nuclear weapon. |
| In the almost three years since the deal was signed, not only has the IAEA confirmed that Iran is complying with the deal, but the Trump administration – the very administration now violating the deal – has repeatedly verified Iran’s compliance. The US secretary of defense, James Mattis, said the verification mechanisms in the deal are “robust”, and the head of the IAEA called them the “world’s most robust”. | In the almost three years since the deal was signed, not only has the IAEA confirmed that Iran is complying with the deal, but the Trump administration – the very administration now violating the deal – has repeatedly verified Iran’s compliance. The US secretary of defense, James Mattis, said the verification mechanisms in the deal are “robust”, and the head of the IAEA called them the “world’s most robust”. |
| But forget the facts and the details. Trump wants out. So now what? | But forget the facts and the details. Trump wants out. So now what? |
| The most consequential result could be an eventual war with Iran that engulfs the Middle East. Iran could kick out inspectors and develop a nuclear weapon. Iran could ramp up its support for terrorism and proxy wars. Arab states like Saudi Arabia could try to get their own nuclear weapons and respond to Iranian escalation with more escalation in Syria and Yemen. And all of that could lead to more conflict in the Middle East, including potential wars with Israel and the United States. | The most consequential result could be an eventual war with Iran that engulfs the Middle East. Iran could kick out inspectors and develop a nuclear weapon. Iran could ramp up its support for terrorism and proxy wars. Arab states like Saudi Arabia could try to get their own nuclear weapons and respond to Iranian escalation with more escalation in Syria and Yemen. And all of that could lead to more conflict in the Middle East, including potential wars with Israel and the United States. |
| That should be worrying enough. But there’s more. | That should be worrying enough. But there’s more. |
| At a time when Trump has already created a rift with allies in Europe over climate change, trade and more, Trump’s violation of the Iran deal doesn’t just put the screws to Iran – it puts the screws to Europe as it faces new potential US sanctions. These are the very allies that the United States needs not only for all manner of global challenges, but also for the new deal with Iran that Trump supposedly wants to pursue. Treating one’s allies as adversaries is not a recipe for success. And sure enough, very quickly after Trump’s announcement, the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, and France jointly announced their “continuing commitment” to the deal. | At a time when Trump has already created a rift with allies in Europe over climate change, trade and more, Trump’s violation of the Iran deal doesn’t just put the screws to Iran – it puts the screws to Europe as it faces new potential US sanctions. These are the very allies that the United States needs not only for all manner of global challenges, but also for the new deal with Iran that Trump supposedly wants to pursue. Treating one’s allies as adversaries is not a recipe for success. And sure enough, very quickly after Trump’s announcement, the leaders of the United Kingdom, Germany, and France jointly announced their “continuing commitment” to the deal. |
| Likewise, the numerous other countries that were essential in pressuring Iran into talks for the nuclear deal – China, Russia, India, Japan, among others – seem even less likely to help. Many of them need oil from the region to fuel their economies, and it took years of painstaking diplomacy to get these countries to reduce their economic ties with Iran in the years leading up to the 2015 nuclear agreement. It seems highly unlikely that they would do so again when there is no evidence of Iran violating the agreement. | Likewise, the numerous other countries that were essential in pressuring Iran into talks for the nuclear deal – China, Russia, India, Japan, among others – seem even less likely to help. Many of them need oil from the region to fuel their economies, and it took years of painstaking diplomacy to get these countries to reduce their economic ties with Iran in the years leading up to the 2015 nuclear agreement. It seems highly unlikely that they would do so again when there is no evidence of Iran violating the agreement. |
| And if the US goal is now to force Iran to make a “new and lasting deal” – as Trump put it – why would Iran agree to negotiate when it believes the word of the United States is good for nothing? | And if the US goal is now to force Iran to make a “new and lasting deal” – as Trump put it – why would Iran agree to negotiate when it believes the word of the United States is good for nothing? |
| So where does that leave the United States? Alone, with a self-inflicted wound that will injure others as collateral damage. | So where does that leave the United States? Alone, with a self-inflicted wound that will injure others as collateral damage. |
| The best-case scenario is that Iran remains in the agreement for now (which Rouhani immediately indicated Iran would) as the other parties continue to comply in the face of potential US sanctions, which tanks US relations with allies and partners around the world. | The best-case scenario is that Iran remains in the agreement for now (which Rouhani immediately indicated Iran would) as the other parties continue to comply in the face of potential US sanctions, which tanks US relations with allies and partners around the world. |
| The worst-case scenario is war. | The worst-case scenario is war. |
| Iran vows to stick with deal after 'pesky' Trump's departure | Iran vows to stick with deal after 'pesky' Trump's departure |
| There was – and still remains – a much better path. The United States could continue to ramp up its activities to push back against Iran around the region. It could start working with allies and partners now to develop plans for continuing to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons when parts of the deal expire years from now. | There was – and still remains – a much better path. The United States could continue to ramp up its activities to push back against Iran around the region. It could start working with allies and partners now to develop plans for continuing to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons when parts of the deal expire years from now. |
| The nuclear deal is not perfect, but it reduces the chances for conflict, and achieves a key goal that the United States, Israel and allies had long sought: stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And yet, in dumping the deal, Trump has offered no alternative to achieve this goal. | The nuclear deal is not perfect, but it reduces the chances for conflict, and achieves a key goal that the United States, Israel and allies had long sought: stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. And yet, in dumping the deal, Trump has offered no alternative to achieve this goal. |
| It’s not clear that Trump is looking for more violent conflict. But his decision to pull the United States out of the Iran deal very well could place the lives of more Americans – and people around the Middle East and beyond – in danger. And all for nothing. | It’s not clear that Trump is looking for more violent conflict. But his decision to pull the United States out of the Iran deal very well could place the lives of more Americans – and people around the Middle East and beyond – in danger. And all for nothing. |
| Michael H Fuchs is a contributing opinion writer for the Guardian US. He is also a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs | Michael H Fuchs is a contributing opinion writer for the Guardian US. He is also a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, and a former deputy assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs |
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