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Is the Iran nuclear deal about to collapse? Is the Iran nuclear deal about to collapse?
(8 days later)
US President Donald Trump has called the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers the "worst ever" and threatened to abandon it. President Donald Trump has ended the United States's participation in a landmark nuclear deal with Iran and reimposing sanctions.
The accord - negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama - saw Iran limit its sensitive nuclear activities in exchange for relief from international sections. The 2015 accord - his predecessor Barack Obama's signature foreign policy achievement - saw Iran limit its nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief.
Why does Mr Trump oppose it?
Mr Trump has twice refused to certify to Congress that Iran is complying with the agreement, but so far declined to reimpose nuclear-related sanctions.
However, he warned in January that the US would "withdraw" from the deal on 12 May - the next deadline for waiving sanctions - unless Congress and European powers fixed its "disastrous flaws".
He complained that the deal only limited Iran's nuclear activities for a fixed period; had failed to stop the development of ballistic missiles; and had handed Iran a $100bn (£72bn) windfall that it used "as a slush fund for weapons, terror, and oppression" across the Middle East.
What was agreed under the deal?What was agreed under the deal?
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - the US, UK, France, China and Russia - plus Germany (the P5+1).The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was agreed by Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - the US, UK, France, China and Russia - plus Germany (the P5+1).
The accord saw Iran agree to limit the size of its stockpile of enriched uranium - which is used to make reactor fuel, but also nuclear weapons - for 15 years and the number of centrifuges installed to enrich uranium for 10 years. Iran also agreed to modify a heavy water facility so it could not produce plutonium suitable for a bomb. It sets limits to Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium - which is used to make reactor fuel, but also nuclear weapons - until 2031 and the number of centrifuges installed to enrich uranium until 2026. Iran also agreed to modify a heavy-water facility so it could not produce plutonium suitable for a bomb.
The accord was endorsed by Security Council resolution 2231 and its implementation began on January 2016, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran had fulfilled its key commitments. The deal was endorsed by Security Council resolution 2231 and its implementation began on January 2016, after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) certified that Iran had fulfilled its key commitments.
What does Mr Trump want 'fixed'? Why does Mr Trump oppose it?
The president declared in January that he would no longer waive sanctions unless Congress approved an amendment to legislation covering the nuclear deal, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, that: In a televised address on 8 May, the president denounced the JCPOA as a "horrible, one-sided deal that should have never, ever been made".
In April, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Ford stressed that the US was "not aiming to renegotiate the JCPOA, or reopen it, or change its terms". Instead, it was "seeking a supplemental agreement that would in some fashion layer upon it a series of additional rules", he said. Rather than protecting the US and its allies, it had placed "very weak limits on the regime's nuclear activity and no limits at all on its other malign behaviour, including its sinister activities in Syria, Yemen and other places all around the world", he said.
Mr Trump also said intelligence documents published by Israel last week had proven that "at the heart of the Iran deal is a fiction that Iran only desired a peaceful nuclear energy programme" - something Iranian officials have consistently denied.
The president added that the accord's so-called "sunset clauses" - under which key limits on Iran's nuclear programme will start to expire - were "totally unacceptable"; that it did not deal with Iran's development of ballistic missiles; and that its mechanism for inspections and verification was not strong enough.
Mr Trump had warned in January that the US would abandon the JCPOA unless European powers fixed its "flaws".
Talks with France, Germany and the UK failed to address his concerns. "It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement," he said.
What measures did Mr Trump announce?
The president vowed to "find a real, comprehensive, and lasting solution" that would "include efforts to eliminate the threat of Iran's ballistic missile programme, to stop its terrorist activities worldwide, and to block its menacing activity across the Middle East".
In the meantime, he said, the US immediately would begin the process of reinstating the "highest level of economic sanctions" on Iran.
"Iran's leaders will naturally say that they refuse to negotiate a new deal, they refuse and that's fine," he concluded.
"But the fact is, they are going to want to make a new and lasting deal, one that benefits all of Iran and the Iranian people."
The White House said the sanctions would target "critical sectors", such as energy, the petrochemical industry and banking.
Foreign firms will be given up to six months to "wind down" their Iranian operations or end existing contracts before incurring any penalties.
What do Iran and the other P5+1 nations say?What do Iran and the other P5+1 nations say?
Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful, has said it considers the JCPOA "not renegotiable". Iranian President Hassan Rouhani declared that the US had "officially undermined its commitment to an international treaty".
President Hassan Rouhani has said there would be "severe consequences" if the US reimposes sanctions. Iranian officials have said uranium enrichment could be stepped up within days and that the country could withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But he stressed that the deal could survive if other parties honoured their commitments.
The European Union has said the current deal is "working" and "needs to be preserved". "I have ordered the foreign ministry to negotiate with the European countries, China and Russia in coming weeks," he said. "If at the end of this short period we conclude that we can fully benefit from the JCPOA with the co-operation of all countries, the deal would remain."
But French President Emmanuel Macron said during a visit to Washington in April that it was "not sufficient" and that he was willing to "work on a new deal". Based on his discussions with Mr Trump, he said it would "need to cover four topics": But if that was not possible, Mr Rouhani warned, Iran would step up uranium enrichment and restart other curbed nuclear activities.
Russia has also said it is in favour of keeping the deal in its current form because it believes "no alternative exists", while IAEA chief Yukiya Amano has said its failure would be a "great loss for nuclear verification and for multilateralism". The European Union's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, expressed regret at Mr Trump's decision.
Will deal collapse if the US reimposes sanctions? She said it was "not in the hands of any single country" to terminate a deal that had been endorsed by a UN Security Council resolution and was "crucial" for world security.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said such a move would "amount to basically killing the deal" and that it was "most likely" that Iran would abandon it as well. However, in theory the deal could survive if Iran and the other parties continue to honour their commitments. She added that the EU would remain committed to deal "as long as Iran continues to implement its nuclear related commitments".
The European powers and other concerned countries could refuse to comply with the US sanctions - international co-operation was key to the previous sanctions regime that brought Iran to the negotiating table. While EU member states and other countries might not co-operate with the reimposed US sanctions, experts have noted that foreign companies might be deterred from dealing with Iran in order not to risk their business prospects in the US.
There are also questions about whether the US could actually "withdraw" from the JCPOA, as Mr Trump has suggested. Is Iran complying with the deal?
The Obama administration argued that the JCPOA was "not a treaty", but rather a reflection of "political commitments" made by Iran and the P5+1. The IAEA has said it has the "world's most robust verification regime in place in Iran", and its inspectors have certified 10 times since 2016 that Iran is fulfilling its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA.
However, the EU's foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said in October 2017 that no party could pull out. "It is not a bilateral agreement. It does not belong to any single country and it is not up to any single country to terminate it," she said. "It is a multilateral agreement that was unanimously endorsed by United Nations Security Council resolution 2231."
Some have suggested the US might seek to counter accusations that it is violating the resolution by citing the JCPOA's preamble, which says all parties must refrain from "any action inconsistent with the letter, spirit and intent" of the deal.
Has Iran complied with the deal?
The IAEA has said it has the "world's most robust verification regime in place in Iran", and its inspectors have certified 11 times since 2016 that Iran is fulfilling its nuclear-related commitments under the JCPOA.
However, the watchdog has recorded several technical violations. For instance, Iran has twice exceeded its heavy-water production cap. In both cases, Iran shipped the excess out of the country.However, the watchdog has recorded several technical violations. For instance, Iran has twice exceeded its heavy-water production cap. In both cases, Iran shipped the excess out of the country.
The IAEA has also said its inspectors were granted access to all locations that they needed to visit in 2017. However, they did not seek to enter any military sites, which Iranian officials had declared off-limits - a move the US said raised doubts over Iranian compliance. The IAEA has also said its inspectors were granted access to all locations they needed to visit in 2017. However, they did not seek to enter any military sites, which Iranian officials declared off-limits - a move the US said raised doubts over Iranian compliance.
The US and European powers also say Iran has carried out ballistic missile tests in violation of Security Council resolution 2231. It "calls upon" Iran not to "undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology". Iran says the missiles are not designed to carry nuclear warheads. The US and European powers also say Iran has carried out ballistic missile tests in violation of resolution 2231. It "calls upon" Iran not to "undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons". Iran denies that it has tested such missiles.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Iran of violating the JCPOA by failing to declare to the IAEA that it had sought to build a nuclear weapon. In April, he presented Iranian files obtained by Israeli intelligence, which he said proved Iran had lied when denying the existence of a secret nuclear weapons programme before 2003. Israel itself is widely believed to have a nuclear arsenal, though it has neither confirmed nor denied this. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accused Iran of violating the JCPOA by failing to declare to the IAEA that it had sought to build a nuclear weapon.
In April, he presented Iranian files obtained by Israeli intelligence, which he said proved Iran had lied when denying the existence of a secret nuclear weapons programme before 2003. Israel itself is widely believed to have a nuclear arsenal, though it has neither confirmed nor denied this.
An Iranian foreign ministry official called Mr Netanyahu's presentation a "childish" stunt to influence Mr Trump's decision on whether to abandon the nuclear deal.An Iranian foreign ministry official called Mr Netanyahu's presentation a "childish" stunt to influence Mr Trump's decision on whether to abandon the nuclear deal.
Has US kept its side of the deal? Was the US keeping its side of the deal?
Iran has accused the US of breaching the JCPOA by imposing new sanctions not directly related to its nuclear activities. They have targeted entities associated with Iran's ballistic missile programme and the Revolutionary Guards, as well as alleged human rights abusers. Iran had already accused the US of breaching the JCPOA by imposing new sanctions not directly related to its nuclear activities. They targeted entities associated with Iran's ballistic missile programme and the Revolutionary Guards, as well as alleged human rights abusers.
Iranian officials have also expressed frustration that the US has kept in place a ban on direct trade with Iran and regulations barring Iran from access to the US financial system. The restrictions were already deterring foreign companies from doing business in Iran before Mr Trump threatened to abandon the nuclear deal. Iranian officials had also expressed frustration that the US had kept retained a ban on direct trade with Iran and regulations barring Iran from access to the US financial system. The restrictions were already deterring foreign companies from doing business in Iran before Mr Trump announced he was reimposing nuclear-related sanctions.
Under the deal, the US is committed to "prevent interference with the realisation of the full benefit by Iran of the sanctions lifting" and to "refrain from any policy specifically intended to directly and adversely affect the normalisation of trade and economic relations with Iran". Under the deal, the US was committed to "prevent interference with the realisation of the full benefit by Iran of the sanctions lifting" and to "refrain from any policy specifically intended to directly and adversely affect the normalisation of trade and economic relations with Iran".
Public discontent with the slow pace of Iran's economic recovery helped spark anti-government protests across Iran at the end of 2017.